Since I have a five day weekend off from school and I wasn't able to get out my regular picks column last week because I got so much homework from said school, I figured the least I could do was get out a quick prediction for tonight's game. The home team is in caps and the line is given for reference.
Atlanta (-3) over NEW ORLEANS, 8:25 ET.
This line seems pretty low to me. I mean, I know the Falcons have their weaknesses and aren't all that reliable for an undefeated team, but they've beaten some pretty good squads. They beat the Giants in Week 2, and beat the somehow-still-favored-to-win-the-NFC-East Eagles the week before. They've also proven to be resilient, winning four of their five after trailing in the fourth quarter. Matt Ryan has struggled at times, and Julio Jones has fallen off of his early historic pace, but that's been offset by the discovery of young running back Devonta Freeman, who has gone off for 362 yards and seven rushing touchdowns in his first three games as a starter. The Atlanta defense has been up and down, but has certainly improved from the unit that we saw nearly lose the Eagles game in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, the Saints are a dramatically different team from the one we saw from 2009-2013. Those teams had some of the greatest offenses in league history and almost never lost at home. That's changed now, and a big reason is the fact that Drew Brees appears to have a gigantic salad fork sticking out of his back. He's just not the same guy he was, and he's certainly not getting back to his heyday behind a struggling offensive line that neither gives him the necessary time to throw, nor creates a push for the running game to open up the passing attack for Brees. And that's without touching on the defense, which has been one of the three worst in the league this year. The only reason they were able to beat the Cowboys two weeks ago (who, incidentally, are going to be even worse than the Saints until Tony Romo and Dez Bryant return) was because they got to play Brandon Weeden, who wasn't able to take advantage of New Orleans' hapless secondary. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will be able to exploit it, and Freeman will tear apart the Saints' equally abysmal run defense.
I realize this has all the makings of a trap game (overachieving team in a road division game against a team desperate for a win with a prideful core), but the Saints really have nothing going for them.
Atlanta 31, New Orleans 20
Atlanta (-3) over NEW ORLEANS, 8:25 ET.
This line seems pretty low to me. I mean, I know the Falcons have their weaknesses and aren't all that reliable for an undefeated team, but they've beaten some pretty good squads. They beat the Giants in Week 2, and beat the somehow-still-favored-to-win-the-NFC-East Eagles the week before. They've also proven to be resilient, winning four of their five after trailing in the fourth quarter. Matt Ryan has struggled at times, and Julio Jones has fallen off of his early historic pace, but that's been offset by the discovery of young running back Devonta Freeman, who has gone off for 362 yards and seven rushing touchdowns in his first three games as a starter. The Atlanta defense has been up and down, but has certainly improved from the unit that we saw nearly lose the Eagles game in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, the Saints are a dramatically different team from the one we saw from 2009-2013. Those teams had some of the greatest offenses in league history and almost never lost at home. That's changed now, and a big reason is the fact that Drew Brees appears to have a gigantic salad fork sticking out of his back. He's just not the same guy he was, and he's certainly not getting back to his heyday behind a struggling offensive line that neither gives him the necessary time to throw, nor creates a push for the running game to open up the passing attack for Brees. And that's without touching on the defense, which has been one of the three worst in the league this year. The only reason they were able to beat the Cowboys two weeks ago (who, incidentally, are going to be even worse than the Saints until Tony Romo and Dez Bryant return) was because they got to play Brandon Weeden, who wasn't able to take advantage of New Orleans' hapless secondary. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will be able to exploit it, and Freeman will tear apart the Saints' equally abysmal run defense.
I realize this has all the makings of a trap game (overachieving team in a road division game against a team desperate for a win with a prideful core), but the Saints really have nothing going for them.
Atlanta 31, New Orleans 20
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