NFL Championship Sunday Picks

Well, here we are again, NFL Championship Sunday. A year ago we were talking about deflated footballs and fumbled onside kicks. Now we're talking about Brady vs Manning XVII and the possibility of high entertainment from the Carolina-Arizona game. So here are my picks for who will go to the Super Bowl. The home team is in all caps and the line and time of the games are given for reference.
(Could you tell that I'm very nervous about the Pats game? I really don't want them to lose, primarily so that people can't use it to say Manning is better than Brady when Manning's probably going to throw the ball about 20 times.)

DENVER over New England (-3), 3:00 ET.

I am a person who notices trends. I notice that the Broncos seem to have a lucky horseshoe up their butts worthy of Eli Manning. I notice that they're 10-2 in games decided by one score or less this year. I notice that they are 7-0 in their history when Ed Hochuli is the referee, and guess who's reffing this week's game? I notice that they have an extremely talented defense with multiple guys up front who can get to the passer through the Patriot's banged up offensive line. What's the key to beating the Pats? Win one-on-one match-ups up front and get pressure on Brady. Tom Brady is 2-6 in his career at Denver, including 0-2 in the postseason. In Denver and Miami, he just has trouble. The Broncos have the dirtiest defense in the NFL, led by despicable safety T.J. Ward, who have already said they will go after Gronkowski's knees. Remember that Ward was the one who tore Gronkowski's knee up when Ward was with Cleveland, and that Gronk has had to leave games against the Broncos with injuries twice. By the end of these two teams' regular season match-up, the Broncos were running the ball down the Patriots' throats. And again, remember how tough it is to play in Mile High.
That's why I was angry that the Pats practically threw in the towel the last two weeks of the regular season; now they have to go to Denver, where they especially have problems and demons. In the year where everyone counted Peyton Manning out, said he was done, couldn't throw anymore, then came back in relief in Week 17 and led the Broncos to a playoff win. Doesn't it feel destined for Manning to reach the Super Bowl in what could (and probably should) be his last season? When have the words "destiny" and "Manning" together ever worked out for the Patriots? I'm excited and not excited at the same time for this game. I'm sure we have the better team, yet I'm convinced that we can't win. I'm a nervous wreck, I know that if the Patriots let Denver hang around (the Patriots excel at letting teams stay in the game when they've outplayed them and the Broncos excel at hanging around when they've been outplayed), the Broncos will get all the calls, all the lucky breaks at the exact right time and they will win. I'm already preparing myself mentally. The only way the Pats win is if they win by double digits. They have to stomp them out from the jump, and I'm not confident they can do that given their history in Denver.

Denver 24, New England 23.


CAROLINA (-3) over Arizona, 6:40 ET.

I would thoroughly enjoy this game if it weren't for the game before it. This game has the potential to be an all-timer. On one side we have the Carolina Panthers, led by MVP candidate Cam Newton, a team that has lost only one game this season, and on the other side, we have the Cardinals, a team who many thought were even better than the Panthers. Let's break this one down on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Cam Newton leads the Panthers' attack. Newton is the leading candidate for MVP and will almost certainly win it, and it's because of his versatility. At 6'6, 250 lbs., Newton has the ability to run over linebackers and around defensive backs. He's almost unstoppable on the shotgun QB draw in short yardage situations, look for the Panthers to use that play when they need a yard or two. Newton has improved his passing game tenfold from previous years, and is now one of the league's premier pocket passers. I haven't seen him throw a lot on the run this year; in fact, he hardly ever leaves the pocket on passing plays. It's a bit of a mystery as to why he doesn't extend plays with his feet when he's known as one of the league's most mobile quarterbacks, but here's my theory: he's more of a downhill runner than an escape artist like Russell Wilson. Carolina leans on their running attack, with Newton and running backs Jonathon Stewart and Mike Tolbert, to wear down the defense and open lanes for their passing attack. Newton's primary weapons are pretty limited. He has top-3 tight end Greg Olsen as his security blanket and speedster Ted Ginn Jr. as a big play threat downfield. Ginn tends to drop a lot of easy catches, so be prepared Carolina fans. Other than those two, Cam's weapons to throw to are pretty limited.
As for the Cardinals defense, they're really good, but not great. They might still be great if it weren't for the loss of ball-hawking safety Tyrann Mathieu late in the season. They are led by cornerback Patrick Peterson, the stalwart of a solid secondary. They have multiple players up front who can create pressure on the quarterback, as we saw when they hit Aaron Rodgers repeatedly in Week 16. Their linebackers fly around and make plays. They have a really good defense that has the ability to stand up to the Panthers' offense. The question is, are they smart enough and hungry enough to do the things they need to do?
The other side of the ball is what really interests me. The Cardinals have a multi-talented offense that can beat you in many ways. QB Carson Palmer has perhaps the best weapons at receiver in the league, in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. He also has a really good rookie running back David Johnson who's capable of going for 170 yards and two touchdowns at any time. It's a matter of pick your poison with them as long as Palmer is on his game. We saw him have trouble in his first important game of the season last week, and it will be worth monitoring if he has deer-in-the-headlights syndrome again this week. Really, the only thing the Cardinals lack is a really good tight end. The offensive line has given Palmer time and the running backs running lanes all year.
The Panthers have a swarming defense led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis who make all the plays in the middle of the field. All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman anchors a really good secondary, and Shaq Thompson and Star Lotulelei lead the pass rush. They have playmakers all over the defense, guys with the ability to be game breakers. The loss of Jared Allen for this game isn't good, but it isn't back-breaking either. I think the key is in this match-up, because the Panthers should be able to score points on the Cardinals defense, albeit not easily. The Panthers should start this game by taking away the run game and forcing Carson Palmer to beat them. That sounds crazy for a QB who was an MVP candidate for the entire season, but he hasn't played a ton of big games in his career and it showed last week. Can Palmer beat the Panthers? And if the Panthers jump out to a lead, can they protect it better in the second half than they have in recent weeks?

Carolina 27, Arizona 24.

Last Week: 4-0
Playoffs: 7-1
Season: 96-46

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Lots of storylines floating around this week, as there always are during the NFL Playoffs. On the AFC side: New England is getting key players healthy to go up against Kansas City who have won 11 in a row. For Pats fans, it may be hard not to have flashbacks to the beat down they suffered at Kansas City last year, but this one's in New England. Meanwhile, the great Peyton Manning is back in for the Broncos in what may be his final playoffs, against a banged up Steelers team without Antonio Brown and Ben Rothlisberger hampered by a shoulder injury. On the NFC side, the Packers head back to Arizona, the site of their worst loss with Aaron Rodgers as quarterback, in Week 16. And on Sunday, Seattle heads to Carolina looking for revenge for one of their many early season losses. Let's just hope the games live up to the hype. Home team is in all caps and the time, date, and line of the games are given for reference.

NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Kansas City, Saturday, 4:30 ET.

The Chiefs come in extraordinarily hot, having won their last 11 games. They've had a pretty soft schedule over that span, to be fair, but the only reason they started 1-5 is the tough schedule they had to start the season. They lost star running back Jamaal Charles early on, and have since relied on a three-headed attack at running back of Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and Knile Davis, all backs who have strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Their offense has been led by quarterback Alex Smith, who has used his weapons of tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin very effectively, as well as utilizing his very underrated athleticism to escape the pocket and make plays with his feet. It's Kansas City's defense, however, that has been doing the heavy lifting. They're very effective at rushing the passer and stuffing the run with their ability to push up front. They also have a very solid secondary, led by Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry, that allows the team the flexibility to run blitz, man, zone, whatever they please. It's basically the same defense that picked Brady off twice and held the Patriots to 14 points in Week 4 last year.
Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled from starting 10-0 to a 12-4 finish after being battered by injuries for most of the year. They lost their last two games to fall out of the number one seed in the AFC. However, those four losses came without Julian Edelman who went out in Week 10 and will make his return to the offense this week. No one knows if Edelman will be as quick and shifty in his first game back, but he's Brady's go-to guy and just his presence should open up the offense more than any game since he went up. The Patriots used the bye week over the Wild Card round to improve the health of players such as Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Sebastien Vollmer, and Tom Brady. Basically, they're going to be at almost full power for the first time since Week 10, and we all saw how that was going. When the Pats are at full health, or 90%, they're almost unbeatable at home. We'll see if the Chiefs can walk into Gillette Stadium and beat them.

New England 28, Kansas City 23.


ARIZONA (-7.5) over Green Bay, Saturday, 8:15 ET.

Back in Week 16, the Cardinals killed the Packers 38-8 at home. They locked up Green Bay's receivers, got a ton of pressure on Aaron Rodgers (forcing him into two turnovers), and threw the ball all over them en route to the blowout.
The Packers should play better this time, though. The offensive line is much healthier now than it was against Arizona last time, and it showed in Green Bay's performance against Washington last week. Not only did they give Rodgers more time than he had had in weeks, they opened up running lanes for Eddie Lacy and James Starks. When the running game has success, it gives the quarterback time and opens up lanes down the field for the receivers. That's what we saw from Green Bay last week in Washington, but Arizona is a much harder test. Carson Palmer is playing the best football of his career and he has about four guys he can throw to at any time, as well as a beast of a rookie running back named David Johnson. That's not to mention their defense, which already proved its worth against Green Bay last time. They have a really strong defensive line and a suffocating defensive backfield. I just don't see how the Packers get it done, even with the improvements they made last week. Arizona is just too good.

Arizona 31, Green Bay 24.


CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle, Sunday, 1:05 ET.

So... Seattle didn't look very good last week. They shouldn't even be playing this week, honestly. The only reason they are is because Blair Walsh pulled out the biggest choke job in the history of NFL kickers. The defense did fine, but that was probably mostly the frigid weather and the fact that Adrian Peterson is the worst big game running back EVER. The offense didn't put up any points through three quarters, only scored a touchdown because of a lucky play where a snap went over Russell Wilson's head, bounced straight back up into his hands, and Tyler Lockett was wide open down field. If not for that pay, the Vikings would be playing this weekend. Seattle just isn't as good as Carolina. Russell Wilson was playing really well earlier this year, but the offensive line hasn't been able to protect him all year. I think Carolina's defense will attack them.
As for Carolina's offense, nobody has played better throughout the year than Cam Newton. Nobody is as versatile at the QB position. He run around, over, and through any defensive player on the field, and his throwing accuracy and decision-making has greatly improved. He's just unstoppable at times, while his only great weapon to throw to is tight end Greg Olsen. They're doing it with Cam and Jonathon Stewart running the ball, then making big plays in the passing game with Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr. down the field. They also do it with a suffocating defense, led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, cornerback Josh Norman, and defensive lineman Star Lotulelei. They just put pressure on every area of the field, it's hard to find a weakness in their defense. I just think that Carolina is better than Seattle.

Carolina 24, Seattle 20.


DENVER (-6.5) over Pittsburgh, Sunday, 4:40 ET.

Believe me, there is nothing I'd rather do than pick the Steelers in this game. I want the very injured Steelers coming to Foxboro next week, where the Patriots already beat Pittsburgh earlier this year, not the Patriots going to Denver to play the healthy and supremely lucky Broncos, where the Pats have already lost this year. But that's the thing isn't it? The Broncos are healthy, the Steelers are not. If they were healthy, I would pick them, but I wouldn't know who I would want to win and play the Pats. But that's not what matters. Without Antonio Brown, with Ben Rothlisberger possibly unable to throw more than 15 yards downfield, with no legit running backs, I don't see how Pittsburgh wins the game. They just won't be able to score. Their defense could keep them in the game because they're good against the run which is what the Broncos rely on when Manning is back there. If they can make Peyton throw the ball 30+ times, force some turnovers, maybe create a defensive touchdown, that's their best chance to win, because the offense is going to struggle. But I don't think their defense is good enough to win them the game when their offense is so banged up. It would be asking for a complete reversal of who the Steelers are as a team; all year they've relied on the offense to gain huge chunks of yardage and outscore their opponents, hoping the defense can create a turnover or two and make the offense work for their points. It would have to be a complete change in who they are, and I don't think a team can just switch their entire approach in one week during the playoffs against a good team. Sorry Pittsburgh.

Denver 24, Pittsburgh 17.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1
Season: 92-46

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

The NFL Playoffs are here! That's right it's that time of year again, when two teams can be completely overcome by the moment, play terribly, and the game will be called great simply because it was close.
In all seriousness, the NFL Playoffs are right there with March Madness as the most enjoyable sports viewing experiences. Maybe it's because each round is only one game, so  that raises the stakes. All I know is that I'm really excited whenever playoff football comes around and this year is no different. Let's get into these picks.

Kansas City (-3) over HOUSTON, Saturday, 4:35 ET.

The Chiefs are on a real hot streak right now. They haven't lost since OCTOBER 18TH. That's a really freaking long time to go without losing. They've been a bit unsung on their hot streak because they lost running back Jamaal Charles early in the year. Quarterback Alex Smith has played really well to make up for Charles' absence, but it's really been about the defense. They're getting after the passer, stuffing the run, and locking down receivers.
That doesn't bode well for the offensively challenged Texans. They've had a revolving door of quarterbacks this year due to injury and they too lost their star running back prematurely (Arian Foster). They have a great playmaker on the outside in receiver Deandre Hopkins, but the Patriots showed that if you can take him away effectively, the Texans have practically nowhere to go. The reasons for the Texans being in the playoffs are as follows: 1) They play in the AFC South, 2) Their defense 3) Deandre Hopkins. They do have a good defense, led by the ultimate game-breaker J.J. Watt, but really the only reason they're still playing is because they got the automatic spot from winning the putrid AFC South. They aren't really on the Chiefs' level, and I think the Chiefs will prove it.

Kansas City 31, Houston 10.


Pittsburgh (-3) over CINCINNATI, Saturday, 8:15 ET.

It seems like we get an all-AFC North playoff match-up every year. Whether it be a third Steelers-Ravens match, Bengals-Ravens, or Steelers-Bengals (just never the Browns, obviously), there's always a rubber match between two of these teams, and it's usually pretty entertaining.
Even though they lost star running back Le'Veon Bell for the season, no one can match the Steelers' weapons on offense. They have the prolific receiver Antonio Brown, physical specimen Martavis Bryant, a very nice third receiver in Markus Wheaton, and the always reliable tight end Heath Miller. And of course they have Big Ben Rothlisberger running the show at quarterback. They spread you out and throw it around, over and through you. They're in the top five in yards gained and points accounted for on offense, and that's with Rothlisberger missing some amount of time. Their defense is solid, but gives up yardage. They rely on turnovers.
I'm not sure if this will be an issue for the Bengals. They do have back-up QB AJ McCarron starting for the injured Andy Dalton, but Dalton has a bit of a reputation for choking in the postseason, so who knows if McCarron will be an upgrade? He did play in plenty of big games at Alabama, after all. the Bengals also have good weapons in receiver A.J. Green and tight end Tyler Eifert, but it's their two-headed monster of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard that sets them apart from the Steelers, who will be forced to start young Fitzgerald Toussaint at running back. The Bengals tortured playoff history recently bears mentioning, as well as the Steelers' incredibly successful history in the biggest games. We'll see what wins out, but I'm riding with the team that has the better QB and a history of success instead of heartbreak.

Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 23.


Seattle (-5) over MINNESOTA, Sunday, 1:05 ET.

The Seahawks finished the season pretty well, but I feel like people are overestimating their recent success. Let's not forget that they lost to the Rams in Week 16 and that big win over Arizona in Week 17 was overblown-- Arizona was merely trying to get into the playoffs without injury. However, the Seahawks turned the offensive load over to Russell Wilson with Marshawn Lynch out for a lot of the season, and he had some incredibly prolific numbers. That defense is still as swarming and physical as ever and they already beat the crap out of the Vikings in Minnesota earlier this year. They have reason to be confident.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off a win against the hated Packers in Green Bay to win the NFC North Crown. That's sure to be a confidence booster. Young Teddy Bridgewater has shown flashes all year and should improve over his performance against Seattle last time. They still have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and their run-oriented style should favor them in the frigid conditions in Minnesota as opposed to the Seahawks now more aerial approach. The Vikings have a great defense that gets after the passer, stuffs the run, and locks up receivers in the secondary. They also wrap up and tackle extremely well.
The only issue is that the Seahawks' defense does all of those things, and probably better than the Vikings'. The deciding factors will be the cold and the pressure. I'm not sure who will deal with the cold better, but I know the Seahawks have a lot more playoff experience, so I'm gonna roll with them. Look for a low-scoring game full of mistakes and sloppy play, which usually means a close game.

Seattle 14, Minnesota 13.


WASHINGTON over Green Bay (-1), Sunday, 4:40 ET.

So... rough end to the season for the Packers, huh? Getting killed by the Cardinals on the road and then losing to one of their most hated rivals in their house to lose the division the next week? Ouch. The Packers have significant issues on their offense, including the offensive line's struggles to protect Aaron Rodgers and his receivers' inability to get open. I've never seen Rodgers struggle like this before. He doesn't exactly get a pass, because he has been playing pretty poorly, but it isn't mostly his fault. The running game has also been lacking as Eddie Lacy has struggled. The defense isn't bad by any means, but it isn't good enough to make up for the offense's struggles.
Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has reminded me more of Aaron Rodgers over the last few weeks than Aaron Rodgers has. He was basically the best QB in the league in December, throwing incredibly accurately and pretty prolifically. He has a go-to guy in tight end Jordan Reed, a huge, fast, agile playmaker who gets as many targets in the red zone as anyone. He is freed up by receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside, and they try to keep things balanced with the running game behind a solid offensive line. The defense isn't anything special, but it's good, with talent up front to take advantage of Green Bay's offensive line issues and a good enough secondary to keep the struggling receivers in check. It will be a question of if Washington can stop Lacy in the running game and keep Rodgers from making plays with his feet. If they can do that, Washington should win.

Washington 27, Green Bay 24.


Last Week: 5-3
Regular Season: 89-45

Week 17 NFL Picks

Well, it's the final week of the NFL season and a lot has changed since this time last week. The Jets beat the Patriots (as I predicted) to put themselves in the playoff picture above the Steelers. The Broncos beat the Bengals so that Denver could end up anywhere from the one-seed to the six-seed when all's said and done. Seattle (very surprisingly) lost to St. Louis, and that, along with the Vikings' win against the Giants and the Packers' shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals really mucked up the NFC playoff picture. Anyway, it should be a fun Week 17. This week, I'm only going to do the games that actually matter, where a playoff spot or seeding is on the line, because it's too hard to predict if teams that already have their seed locked up or are out of the playoffs will sit their best players. The home team is in all caps and the line and time of the game are given for reference.

NY Jets (-3) over BUFFALO, 1:00 ET.

The Jets are a good, well-coached team with good weapons and a very strong defensive line. They're more than a match for the inconsistent Bills, especially when they have something to play for and the Bills don't. The Jets could still lose their playoff spot if they lose. The question is, are they the type of team that rises to the occasion under that kind of pressure, or folds when they really need to win? We'll find out when they play their old buddy Rex and the Bills today.

New York 23, Buffalo 20.


New England (-10) over MIAMI, 1:00 ET.

I need to believe that the Patriots will win today. If they win, they secure the number one seed in the AFC and home-field throughout the playoffs. With how beat up they are, how many injuries they've had to deal with, they need that little extra edge in the playoffs. I believe Belichick knows that, but his priority last week against the Jets was getting out with as few injuries as possible. Now, against a much less dangerous Dolphins team, with the one-seed on the line, I think Belichick will put the A-game plan out there against Miami. The one-seed is on the line.

New England 27, Miami 20.


CINCINNATI (-9.5) over Baltimore, 1:00 ET.

Cincy still has something to play for, too. With a win and a Denver loss, the Bengals would be the two-seed. The Ravens have a ton of injuries, and might not be a match for Cincy if they were healthy, anyway. I fully expect the Bengals to win this game.

Cincinnati 28, Baltimore 17.


Pittsburgh (-11) over CLEVELAND, 1:00 ET.

Well, the schedule lets the Steelers do their part. They get to play the Browns and pray that the Jets lose. Even though the Seelers have had a tendency to lose to below average teams the last few years, I don't think they'll mess around with the Browns.

Pittsburgh 35, Cleveland 10.


CAROLINA (-10.5) over Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET.

Carolina lost for the first time all year last week, and if that wasn't motivation enough, they still have to win to lock up the number one seed in the NFC. Just like with Pittsburgh, they have too much at stake to lose to an inferior team. They don't want to go to Arizona in the playoffs.

Carolina 31, Tampa Bay 23.


DENVER (-9) over San Diego, 4:25 ET.

Denver at home and Denver on the road are two different teams. That's why the Patriots need to win today. Denver is a tough place to play and it seems like Brady especially has problems there. And since they're at home this week, I have no doubt that they'll take care of the Chargers this week with so much on the line.

Denver 28, San Diego 14.


ARIZONA (-6.5) over Seattle, 4:25 ET.

If this game was in Seattle, I would pick the Seahawks. They have wild card seeding on the line whereas Arizona simply has an outside shot at the number one seed. But since both teams have something to play for, the game is in Arizona, and the Cardinals have proven to be a better team, I'll take them.

Arizona 27, Seattle 24.


Minnesota over GREEN BAY (-3), 8:30 ET.

I've seen too much struggling on offense to pick Green Bay here. Their receivers can't get open and the dinged up offensive line cant give Rodgers enough time to find someone. Rodgers also isn't making plays with his feet like he has in the past and he isn't making the bet decisions. While the Packers are bottoming out at the worst time, the Vikings are peaking at the best time. Teddy Bridgewater is starting to win them games, the defense is as swarming as ever, and Stefon Diggs has emerged as a very good wide receiver in the league. Adrian Peterson is still Adrian Peterson. The only reason I'm not sure (and I'm definitely not) about this pick is that the Packers are the Packers and the Vikings are the Vikings. Rodgers always plays well in the division, and so does the defense. I'm picking the Vikings, but it's very close.

Minnesota 28, Green Bay 27.

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 84-42