Well, it's the final week of the NFL season and a lot has changed since this time last week. The Jets beat the Patriots (as I predicted) to put themselves in the playoff picture above the Steelers. The Broncos beat the Bengals so that Denver could end up anywhere from the one-seed to the six-seed when all's said and done. Seattle (very surprisingly) lost to St. Louis, and that, along with the Vikings' win against the Giants and the Packers' shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals really mucked up the NFC playoff picture. Anyway, it should be a fun Week 17. This week, I'm only going to do the games that actually matter, where a playoff spot or seeding is on the line, because it's too hard to predict if teams that already have their seed locked up or are out of the playoffs will sit their best players. The home team is in all caps and the line and time of the game are given for reference.
NY Jets (-3) over BUFFALO, 1:00 ET.
The Jets are a good, well-coached team with good weapons and a very strong defensive line. They're more than a match for the inconsistent Bills, especially when they have something to play for and the Bills don't. The Jets could still lose their playoff spot if they lose. The question is, are they the type of team that rises to the occasion under that kind of pressure, or folds when they really need to win? We'll find out when they play their old buddy Rex and the Bills today.
New York 23, Buffalo 20.
New England (-10) over MIAMI, 1:00 ET.
I need to believe that the Patriots will win today. If they win, they secure the number one seed in the AFC and home-field throughout the playoffs. With how beat up they are, how many injuries they've had to deal with, they need that little extra edge in the playoffs. I believe Belichick knows that, but his priority last week against the Jets was getting out with as few injuries as possible. Now, against a much less dangerous Dolphins team, with the one-seed on the line, I think Belichick will put the A-game plan out there against Miami. The one-seed is on the line.
New England 27, Miami 20.
CINCINNATI (-9.5) over Baltimore, 1:00 ET.
Cincy still has something to play for, too. With a win and a Denver loss, the Bengals would be the two-seed. The Ravens have a ton of injuries, and might not be a match for Cincy if they were healthy, anyway. I fully expect the Bengals to win this game.
Cincinnati 28, Baltimore 17.
Pittsburgh (-11) over CLEVELAND, 1:00 ET.
Well, the schedule lets the Steelers do their part. They get to play the Browns and pray that the Jets lose. Even though the Seelers have had a tendency to lose to below average teams the last few years, I don't think they'll mess around with the Browns.
Pittsburgh 35, Cleveland 10.
CAROLINA (-10.5) over Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET.
Carolina lost for the first time all year last week, and if that wasn't motivation enough, they still have to win to lock up the number one seed in the NFC. Just like with Pittsburgh, they have too much at stake to lose to an inferior team. They don't want to go to Arizona in the playoffs.
Carolina 31, Tampa Bay 23.
DENVER (-9) over San Diego, 4:25 ET.
Denver at home and Denver on the road are two different teams. That's why the Patriots need to win today. Denver is a tough place to play and it seems like Brady especially has problems there. And since they're at home this week, I have no doubt that they'll take care of the Chargers this week with so much on the line.
Denver 28, San Diego 14.
ARIZONA (-6.5) over Seattle, 4:25 ET.
If this game was in Seattle, I would pick the Seahawks. They have wild card seeding on the line whereas Arizona simply has an outside shot at the number one seed. But since both teams have something to play for, the game is in Arizona, and the Cardinals have proven to be a better team, I'll take them.
Arizona 27, Seattle 24.
Minnesota over GREEN BAY (-3), 8:30 ET.
I've seen too much struggling on offense to pick Green Bay here. Their receivers can't get open and the dinged up offensive line cant give Rodgers enough time to find someone. Rodgers also isn't making plays with his feet like he has in the past and he isn't making the bet decisions. While the Packers are bottoming out at the worst time, the Vikings are peaking at the best time. Teddy Bridgewater is starting to win them games, the defense is as swarming as ever, and Stefon Diggs has emerged as a very good wide receiver in the league. Adrian Peterson is still Adrian Peterson. The only reason I'm not sure (and I'm definitely not) about this pick is that the Packers are the Packers and the Vikings are the Vikings. Rodgers always plays well in the division, and so does the defense. I'm picking the Vikings, but it's very close.
Minnesota 28, Green Bay 27.
Last Week: 9-4
Season: 84-42
NY Jets (-3) over BUFFALO, 1:00 ET.
The Jets are a good, well-coached team with good weapons and a very strong defensive line. They're more than a match for the inconsistent Bills, especially when they have something to play for and the Bills don't. The Jets could still lose their playoff spot if they lose. The question is, are they the type of team that rises to the occasion under that kind of pressure, or folds when they really need to win? We'll find out when they play their old buddy Rex and the Bills today.
New York 23, Buffalo 20.
New England (-10) over MIAMI, 1:00 ET.
I need to believe that the Patriots will win today. If they win, they secure the number one seed in the AFC and home-field throughout the playoffs. With how beat up they are, how many injuries they've had to deal with, they need that little extra edge in the playoffs. I believe Belichick knows that, but his priority last week against the Jets was getting out with as few injuries as possible. Now, against a much less dangerous Dolphins team, with the one-seed on the line, I think Belichick will put the A-game plan out there against Miami. The one-seed is on the line.
New England 27, Miami 20.
CINCINNATI (-9.5) over Baltimore, 1:00 ET.
Cincy still has something to play for, too. With a win and a Denver loss, the Bengals would be the two-seed. The Ravens have a ton of injuries, and might not be a match for Cincy if they were healthy, anyway. I fully expect the Bengals to win this game.
Cincinnati 28, Baltimore 17.
Pittsburgh (-11) over CLEVELAND, 1:00 ET.
Well, the schedule lets the Steelers do their part. They get to play the Browns and pray that the Jets lose. Even though the Seelers have had a tendency to lose to below average teams the last few years, I don't think they'll mess around with the Browns.
Pittsburgh 35, Cleveland 10.
CAROLINA (-10.5) over Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET.
Carolina lost for the first time all year last week, and if that wasn't motivation enough, they still have to win to lock up the number one seed in the NFC. Just like with Pittsburgh, they have too much at stake to lose to an inferior team. They don't want to go to Arizona in the playoffs.
Carolina 31, Tampa Bay 23.
DENVER (-9) over San Diego, 4:25 ET.
Denver at home and Denver on the road are two different teams. That's why the Patriots need to win today. Denver is a tough place to play and it seems like Brady especially has problems there. And since they're at home this week, I have no doubt that they'll take care of the Chargers this week with so much on the line.
Denver 28, San Diego 14.
ARIZONA (-6.5) over Seattle, 4:25 ET.
If this game was in Seattle, I would pick the Seahawks. They have wild card seeding on the line whereas Arizona simply has an outside shot at the number one seed. But since both teams have something to play for, the game is in Arizona, and the Cardinals have proven to be a better team, I'll take them.
Arizona 27, Seattle 24.
Minnesota over GREEN BAY (-3), 8:30 ET.
I've seen too much struggling on offense to pick Green Bay here. Their receivers can't get open and the dinged up offensive line cant give Rodgers enough time to find someone. Rodgers also isn't making plays with his feet like he has in the past and he isn't making the bet decisions. While the Packers are bottoming out at the worst time, the Vikings are peaking at the best time. Teddy Bridgewater is starting to win them games, the defense is as swarming as ever, and Stefon Diggs has emerged as a very good wide receiver in the league. Adrian Peterson is still Adrian Peterson. The only reason I'm not sure (and I'm definitely not) about this pick is that the Packers are the Packers and the Vikings are the Vikings. Rodgers always plays well in the division, and so does the defense. I'm picking the Vikings, but it's very close.
Minnesota 28, Green Bay 27.
Last Week: 9-4
Season: 84-42
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