NFL Championship Sunday Picks

Well, here we are again, NFL Championship Sunday. A year ago we were talking about deflated footballs and fumbled onside kicks. Now we're talking about Brady vs Manning XVII and the possibility of high entertainment from the Carolina-Arizona game. So here are my picks for who will go to the Super Bowl. The home team is in all caps and the line and time of the games are given for reference.
(Could you tell that I'm very nervous about the Pats game? I really don't want them to lose, primarily so that people can't use it to say Manning is better than Brady when Manning's probably going to throw the ball about 20 times.)

DENVER over New England (-3), 3:00 ET.

I am a person who notices trends. I notice that the Broncos seem to have a lucky horseshoe up their butts worthy of Eli Manning. I notice that they're 10-2 in games decided by one score or less this year. I notice that they are 7-0 in their history when Ed Hochuli is the referee, and guess who's reffing this week's game? I notice that they have an extremely talented defense with multiple guys up front who can get to the passer through the Patriot's banged up offensive line. What's the key to beating the Pats? Win one-on-one match-ups up front and get pressure on Brady. Tom Brady is 2-6 in his career at Denver, including 0-2 in the postseason. In Denver and Miami, he just has trouble. The Broncos have the dirtiest defense in the NFL, led by despicable safety T.J. Ward, who have already said they will go after Gronkowski's knees. Remember that Ward was the one who tore Gronkowski's knee up when Ward was with Cleveland, and that Gronk has had to leave games against the Broncos with injuries twice. By the end of these two teams' regular season match-up, the Broncos were running the ball down the Patriots' throats. And again, remember how tough it is to play in Mile High.
That's why I was angry that the Pats practically threw in the towel the last two weeks of the regular season; now they have to go to Denver, where they especially have problems and demons. In the year where everyone counted Peyton Manning out, said he was done, couldn't throw anymore, then came back in relief in Week 17 and led the Broncos to a playoff win. Doesn't it feel destined for Manning to reach the Super Bowl in what could (and probably should) be his last season? When have the words "destiny" and "Manning" together ever worked out for the Patriots? I'm excited and not excited at the same time for this game. I'm sure we have the better team, yet I'm convinced that we can't win. I'm a nervous wreck, I know that if the Patriots let Denver hang around (the Patriots excel at letting teams stay in the game when they've outplayed them and the Broncos excel at hanging around when they've been outplayed), the Broncos will get all the calls, all the lucky breaks at the exact right time and they will win. I'm already preparing myself mentally. The only way the Pats win is if they win by double digits. They have to stomp them out from the jump, and I'm not confident they can do that given their history in Denver.

Denver 24, New England 23.


CAROLINA (-3) over Arizona, 6:40 ET.

I would thoroughly enjoy this game if it weren't for the game before it. This game has the potential to be an all-timer. On one side we have the Carolina Panthers, led by MVP candidate Cam Newton, a team that has lost only one game this season, and on the other side, we have the Cardinals, a team who many thought were even better than the Panthers. Let's break this one down on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Cam Newton leads the Panthers' attack. Newton is the leading candidate for MVP and will almost certainly win it, and it's because of his versatility. At 6'6, 250 lbs., Newton has the ability to run over linebackers and around defensive backs. He's almost unstoppable on the shotgun QB draw in short yardage situations, look for the Panthers to use that play when they need a yard or two. Newton has improved his passing game tenfold from previous years, and is now one of the league's premier pocket passers. I haven't seen him throw a lot on the run this year; in fact, he hardly ever leaves the pocket on passing plays. It's a bit of a mystery as to why he doesn't extend plays with his feet when he's known as one of the league's most mobile quarterbacks, but here's my theory: he's more of a downhill runner than an escape artist like Russell Wilson. Carolina leans on their running attack, with Newton and running backs Jonathon Stewart and Mike Tolbert, to wear down the defense and open lanes for their passing attack. Newton's primary weapons are pretty limited. He has top-3 tight end Greg Olsen as his security blanket and speedster Ted Ginn Jr. as a big play threat downfield. Ginn tends to drop a lot of easy catches, so be prepared Carolina fans. Other than those two, Cam's weapons to throw to are pretty limited.
As for the Cardinals defense, they're really good, but not great. They might still be great if it weren't for the loss of ball-hawking safety Tyrann Mathieu late in the season. They are led by cornerback Patrick Peterson, the stalwart of a solid secondary. They have multiple players up front who can create pressure on the quarterback, as we saw when they hit Aaron Rodgers repeatedly in Week 16. Their linebackers fly around and make plays. They have a really good defense that has the ability to stand up to the Panthers' offense. The question is, are they smart enough and hungry enough to do the things they need to do?
The other side of the ball is what really interests me. The Cardinals have a multi-talented offense that can beat you in many ways. QB Carson Palmer has perhaps the best weapons at receiver in the league, in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. He also has a really good rookie running back David Johnson who's capable of going for 170 yards and two touchdowns at any time. It's a matter of pick your poison with them as long as Palmer is on his game. We saw him have trouble in his first important game of the season last week, and it will be worth monitoring if he has deer-in-the-headlights syndrome again this week. Really, the only thing the Cardinals lack is a really good tight end. The offensive line has given Palmer time and the running backs running lanes all year.
The Panthers have a swarming defense led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis who make all the plays in the middle of the field. All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman anchors a really good secondary, and Shaq Thompson and Star Lotulelei lead the pass rush. They have playmakers all over the defense, guys with the ability to be game breakers. The loss of Jared Allen for this game isn't good, but it isn't back-breaking either. I think the key is in this match-up, because the Panthers should be able to score points on the Cardinals defense, albeit not easily. The Panthers should start this game by taking away the run game and forcing Carson Palmer to beat them. That sounds crazy for a QB who was an MVP candidate for the entire season, but he hasn't played a ton of big games in his career and it showed last week. Can Palmer beat the Panthers? And if the Panthers jump out to a lead, can they protect it better in the second half than they have in recent weeks?

Carolina 27, Arizona 24.

Last Week: 4-0
Playoffs: 7-1
Season: 96-46

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Lots of storylines floating around this week, as there always are during the NFL Playoffs. On the AFC side: New England is getting key players healthy to go up against Kansas City who have won 11 in a row. For Pats fans, it may be hard not to have flashbacks to the beat down they suffered at Kansas City last year, but this one's in New England. Meanwhile, the great Peyton Manning is back in for the Broncos in what may be his final playoffs, against a banged up Steelers team without Antonio Brown and Ben Rothlisberger hampered by a shoulder injury. On the NFC side, the Packers head back to Arizona, the site of their worst loss with Aaron Rodgers as quarterback, in Week 16. And on Sunday, Seattle heads to Carolina looking for revenge for one of their many early season losses. Let's just hope the games live up to the hype. Home team is in all caps and the time, date, and line of the games are given for reference.

NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Kansas City, Saturday, 4:30 ET.

The Chiefs come in extraordinarily hot, having won their last 11 games. They've had a pretty soft schedule over that span, to be fair, but the only reason they started 1-5 is the tough schedule they had to start the season. They lost star running back Jamaal Charles early on, and have since relied on a three-headed attack at running back of Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and Knile Davis, all backs who have strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Their offense has been led by quarterback Alex Smith, who has used his weapons of tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin very effectively, as well as utilizing his very underrated athleticism to escape the pocket and make plays with his feet. It's Kansas City's defense, however, that has been doing the heavy lifting. They're very effective at rushing the passer and stuffing the run with their ability to push up front. They also have a very solid secondary, led by Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry, that allows the team the flexibility to run blitz, man, zone, whatever they please. It's basically the same defense that picked Brady off twice and held the Patriots to 14 points in Week 4 last year.
Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled from starting 10-0 to a 12-4 finish after being battered by injuries for most of the year. They lost their last two games to fall out of the number one seed in the AFC. However, those four losses came without Julian Edelman who went out in Week 10 and will make his return to the offense this week. No one knows if Edelman will be as quick and shifty in his first game back, but he's Brady's go-to guy and just his presence should open up the offense more than any game since he went up. The Patriots used the bye week over the Wild Card round to improve the health of players such as Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Sebastien Vollmer, and Tom Brady. Basically, they're going to be at almost full power for the first time since Week 10, and we all saw how that was going. When the Pats are at full health, or 90%, they're almost unbeatable at home. We'll see if the Chiefs can walk into Gillette Stadium and beat them.

New England 28, Kansas City 23.


ARIZONA (-7.5) over Green Bay, Saturday, 8:15 ET.

Back in Week 16, the Cardinals killed the Packers 38-8 at home. They locked up Green Bay's receivers, got a ton of pressure on Aaron Rodgers (forcing him into two turnovers), and threw the ball all over them en route to the blowout.
The Packers should play better this time, though. The offensive line is much healthier now than it was against Arizona last time, and it showed in Green Bay's performance against Washington last week. Not only did they give Rodgers more time than he had had in weeks, they opened up running lanes for Eddie Lacy and James Starks. When the running game has success, it gives the quarterback time and opens up lanes down the field for the receivers. That's what we saw from Green Bay last week in Washington, but Arizona is a much harder test. Carson Palmer is playing the best football of his career and he has about four guys he can throw to at any time, as well as a beast of a rookie running back named David Johnson. That's not to mention their defense, which already proved its worth against Green Bay last time. They have a really strong defensive line and a suffocating defensive backfield. I just don't see how the Packers get it done, even with the improvements they made last week. Arizona is just too good.

Arizona 31, Green Bay 24.


CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle, Sunday, 1:05 ET.

So... Seattle didn't look very good last week. They shouldn't even be playing this week, honestly. The only reason they are is because Blair Walsh pulled out the biggest choke job in the history of NFL kickers. The defense did fine, but that was probably mostly the frigid weather and the fact that Adrian Peterson is the worst big game running back EVER. The offense didn't put up any points through three quarters, only scored a touchdown because of a lucky play where a snap went over Russell Wilson's head, bounced straight back up into his hands, and Tyler Lockett was wide open down field. If not for that pay, the Vikings would be playing this weekend. Seattle just isn't as good as Carolina. Russell Wilson was playing really well earlier this year, but the offensive line hasn't been able to protect him all year. I think Carolina's defense will attack them.
As for Carolina's offense, nobody has played better throughout the year than Cam Newton. Nobody is as versatile at the QB position. He run around, over, and through any defensive player on the field, and his throwing accuracy and decision-making has greatly improved. He's just unstoppable at times, while his only great weapon to throw to is tight end Greg Olsen. They're doing it with Cam and Jonathon Stewart running the ball, then making big plays in the passing game with Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr. down the field. They also do it with a suffocating defense, led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, cornerback Josh Norman, and defensive lineman Star Lotulelei. They just put pressure on every area of the field, it's hard to find a weakness in their defense. I just think that Carolina is better than Seattle.

Carolina 24, Seattle 20.


DENVER (-6.5) over Pittsburgh, Sunday, 4:40 ET.

Believe me, there is nothing I'd rather do than pick the Steelers in this game. I want the very injured Steelers coming to Foxboro next week, where the Patriots already beat Pittsburgh earlier this year, not the Patriots going to Denver to play the healthy and supremely lucky Broncos, where the Pats have already lost this year. But that's the thing isn't it? The Broncos are healthy, the Steelers are not. If they were healthy, I would pick them, but I wouldn't know who I would want to win and play the Pats. But that's not what matters. Without Antonio Brown, with Ben Rothlisberger possibly unable to throw more than 15 yards downfield, with no legit running backs, I don't see how Pittsburgh wins the game. They just won't be able to score. Their defense could keep them in the game because they're good against the run which is what the Broncos rely on when Manning is back there. If they can make Peyton throw the ball 30+ times, force some turnovers, maybe create a defensive touchdown, that's their best chance to win, because the offense is going to struggle. But I don't think their defense is good enough to win them the game when their offense is so banged up. It would be asking for a complete reversal of who the Steelers are as a team; all year they've relied on the offense to gain huge chunks of yardage and outscore their opponents, hoping the defense can create a turnover or two and make the offense work for their points. It would have to be a complete change in who they are, and I don't think a team can just switch their entire approach in one week during the playoffs against a good team. Sorry Pittsburgh.

Denver 24, Pittsburgh 17.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1
Season: 92-46

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

The NFL Playoffs are here! That's right it's that time of year again, when two teams can be completely overcome by the moment, play terribly, and the game will be called great simply because it was close.
In all seriousness, the NFL Playoffs are right there with March Madness as the most enjoyable sports viewing experiences. Maybe it's because each round is only one game, so  that raises the stakes. All I know is that I'm really excited whenever playoff football comes around and this year is no different. Let's get into these picks.

Kansas City (-3) over HOUSTON, Saturday, 4:35 ET.

The Chiefs are on a real hot streak right now. They haven't lost since OCTOBER 18TH. That's a really freaking long time to go without losing. They've been a bit unsung on their hot streak because they lost running back Jamaal Charles early in the year. Quarterback Alex Smith has played really well to make up for Charles' absence, but it's really been about the defense. They're getting after the passer, stuffing the run, and locking down receivers.
That doesn't bode well for the offensively challenged Texans. They've had a revolving door of quarterbacks this year due to injury and they too lost their star running back prematurely (Arian Foster). They have a great playmaker on the outside in receiver Deandre Hopkins, but the Patriots showed that if you can take him away effectively, the Texans have practically nowhere to go. The reasons for the Texans being in the playoffs are as follows: 1) They play in the AFC South, 2) Their defense 3) Deandre Hopkins. They do have a good defense, led by the ultimate game-breaker J.J. Watt, but really the only reason they're still playing is because they got the automatic spot from winning the putrid AFC South. They aren't really on the Chiefs' level, and I think the Chiefs will prove it.

Kansas City 31, Houston 10.


Pittsburgh (-3) over CINCINNATI, Saturday, 8:15 ET.

It seems like we get an all-AFC North playoff match-up every year. Whether it be a third Steelers-Ravens match, Bengals-Ravens, or Steelers-Bengals (just never the Browns, obviously), there's always a rubber match between two of these teams, and it's usually pretty entertaining.
Even though they lost star running back Le'Veon Bell for the season, no one can match the Steelers' weapons on offense. They have the prolific receiver Antonio Brown, physical specimen Martavis Bryant, a very nice third receiver in Markus Wheaton, and the always reliable tight end Heath Miller. And of course they have Big Ben Rothlisberger running the show at quarterback. They spread you out and throw it around, over and through you. They're in the top five in yards gained and points accounted for on offense, and that's with Rothlisberger missing some amount of time. Their defense is solid, but gives up yardage. They rely on turnovers.
I'm not sure if this will be an issue for the Bengals. They do have back-up QB AJ McCarron starting for the injured Andy Dalton, but Dalton has a bit of a reputation for choking in the postseason, so who knows if McCarron will be an upgrade? He did play in plenty of big games at Alabama, after all. the Bengals also have good weapons in receiver A.J. Green and tight end Tyler Eifert, but it's their two-headed monster of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard that sets them apart from the Steelers, who will be forced to start young Fitzgerald Toussaint at running back. The Bengals tortured playoff history recently bears mentioning, as well as the Steelers' incredibly successful history in the biggest games. We'll see what wins out, but I'm riding with the team that has the better QB and a history of success instead of heartbreak.

Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 23.


Seattle (-5) over MINNESOTA, Sunday, 1:05 ET.

The Seahawks finished the season pretty well, but I feel like people are overestimating their recent success. Let's not forget that they lost to the Rams in Week 16 and that big win over Arizona in Week 17 was overblown-- Arizona was merely trying to get into the playoffs without injury. However, the Seahawks turned the offensive load over to Russell Wilson with Marshawn Lynch out for a lot of the season, and he had some incredibly prolific numbers. That defense is still as swarming and physical as ever and they already beat the crap out of the Vikings in Minnesota earlier this year. They have reason to be confident.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off a win against the hated Packers in Green Bay to win the NFC North Crown. That's sure to be a confidence booster. Young Teddy Bridgewater has shown flashes all year and should improve over his performance against Seattle last time. They still have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and their run-oriented style should favor them in the frigid conditions in Minnesota as opposed to the Seahawks now more aerial approach. The Vikings have a great defense that gets after the passer, stuffs the run, and locks up receivers in the secondary. They also wrap up and tackle extremely well.
The only issue is that the Seahawks' defense does all of those things, and probably better than the Vikings'. The deciding factors will be the cold and the pressure. I'm not sure who will deal with the cold better, but I know the Seahawks have a lot more playoff experience, so I'm gonna roll with them. Look for a low-scoring game full of mistakes and sloppy play, which usually means a close game.

Seattle 14, Minnesota 13.


WASHINGTON over Green Bay (-1), Sunday, 4:40 ET.

So... rough end to the season for the Packers, huh? Getting killed by the Cardinals on the road and then losing to one of their most hated rivals in their house to lose the division the next week? Ouch. The Packers have significant issues on their offense, including the offensive line's struggles to protect Aaron Rodgers and his receivers' inability to get open. I've never seen Rodgers struggle like this before. He doesn't exactly get a pass, because he has been playing pretty poorly, but it isn't mostly his fault. The running game has also been lacking as Eddie Lacy has struggled. The defense isn't bad by any means, but it isn't good enough to make up for the offense's struggles.
Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has reminded me more of Aaron Rodgers over the last few weeks than Aaron Rodgers has. He was basically the best QB in the league in December, throwing incredibly accurately and pretty prolifically. He has a go-to guy in tight end Jordan Reed, a huge, fast, agile playmaker who gets as many targets in the red zone as anyone. He is freed up by receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside, and they try to keep things balanced with the running game behind a solid offensive line. The defense isn't anything special, but it's good, with talent up front to take advantage of Green Bay's offensive line issues and a good enough secondary to keep the struggling receivers in check. It will be a question of if Washington can stop Lacy in the running game and keep Rodgers from making plays with his feet. If they can do that, Washington should win.

Washington 27, Green Bay 24.


Last Week: 5-3
Regular Season: 89-45

Week 17 NFL Picks

Well, it's the final week of the NFL season and a lot has changed since this time last week. The Jets beat the Patriots (as I predicted) to put themselves in the playoff picture above the Steelers. The Broncos beat the Bengals so that Denver could end up anywhere from the one-seed to the six-seed when all's said and done. Seattle (very surprisingly) lost to St. Louis, and that, along with the Vikings' win against the Giants and the Packers' shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals really mucked up the NFC playoff picture. Anyway, it should be a fun Week 17. This week, I'm only going to do the games that actually matter, where a playoff spot or seeding is on the line, because it's too hard to predict if teams that already have their seed locked up or are out of the playoffs will sit their best players. The home team is in all caps and the line and time of the game are given for reference.

NY Jets (-3) over BUFFALO, 1:00 ET.

The Jets are a good, well-coached team with good weapons and a very strong defensive line. They're more than a match for the inconsistent Bills, especially when they have something to play for and the Bills don't. The Jets could still lose their playoff spot if they lose. The question is, are they the type of team that rises to the occasion under that kind of pressure, or folds when they really need to win? We'll find out when they play their old buddy Rex and the Bills today.

New York 23, Buffalo 20.


New England (-10) over MIAMI, 1:00 ET.

I need to believe that the Patriots will win today. If they win, they secure the number one seed in the AFC and home-field throughout the playoffs. With how beat up they are, how many injuries they've had to deal with, they need that little extra edge in the playoffs. I believe Belichick knows that, but his priority last week against the Jets was getting out with as few injuries as possible. Now, against a much less dangerous Dolphins team, with the one-seed on the line, I think Belichick will put the A-game plan out there against Miami. The one-seed is on the line.

New England 27, Miami 20.


CINCINNATI (-9.5) over Baltimore, 1:00 ET.

Cincy still has something to play for, too. With a win and a Denver loss, the Bengals would be the two-seed. The Ravens have a ton of injuries, and might not be a match for Cincy if they were healthy, anyway. I fully expect the Bengals to win this game.

Cincinnati 28, Baltimore 17.


Pittsburgh (-11) over CLEVELAND, 1:00 ET.

Well, the schedule lets the Steelers do their part. They get to play the Browns and pray that the Jets lose. Even though the Seelers have had a tendency to lose to below average teams the last few years, I don't think they'll mess around with the Browns.

Pittsburgh 35, Cleveland 10.


CAROLINA (-10.5) over Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET.

Carolina lost for the first time all year last week, and if that wasn't motivation enough, they still have to win to lock up the number one seed in the NFC. Just like with Pittsburgh, they have too much at stake to lose to an inferior team. They don't want to go to Arizona in the playoffs.

Carolina 31, Tampa Bay 23.


DENVER (-9) over San Diego, 4:25 ET.

Denver at home and Denver on the road are two different teams. That's why the Patriots need to win today. Denver is a tough place to play and it seems like Brady especially has problems there. And since they're at home this week, I have no doubt that they'll take care of the Chargers this week with so much on the line.

Denver 28, San Diego 14.


ARIZONA (-6.5) over Seattle, 4:25 ET.

If this game was in Seattle, I would pick the Seahawks. They have wild card seeding on the line whereas Arizona simply has an outside shot at the number one seed. But since both teams have something to play for, the game is in Arizona, and the Cardinals have proven to be a better team, I'll take them.

Arizona 27, Seattle 24.


Minnesota over GREEN BAY (-3), 8:30 ET.

I've seen too much struggling on offense to pick Green Bay here. Their receivers can't get open and the dinged up offensive line cant give Rodgers enough time to find someone. Rodgers also isn't making plays with his feet like he has in the past and he isn't making the bet decisions. While the Packers are bottoming out at the worst time, the Vikings are peaking at the best time. Teddy Bridgewater is starting to win them games, the defense is as swarming as ever, and Stefon Diggs has emerged as a very good wide receiver in the league. Adrian Peterson is still Adrian Peterson. The only reason I'm not sure (and I'm definitely not) about this pick is that the Packers are the Packers and the Vikings are the Vikings. Rodgers always plays well in the division, and so does the defense. I'm picking the Vikings, but it's very close.

Minnesota 28, Green Bay 27.

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 84-42

Week 16 NFL Picks

We're coming down the stretch of this NFL season and there are a lot of story lines flying around. Will the Panthers go undefeated? Can the Patriots overcome all the debilitating injuries? Is Cincinnati finally ready to play under the lights? What's going on with the quarterback situation in Denver? Is Seattle actually the team to beat in the NFC? How many division winners will lose in the first round to the stacked wild card teams of Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle, and Minnesota? Can the Packers find their way on offense? All of these questions hover over this week's games and will affect how they play out. Home team is in all caps and the line and time are given for reference.


Chicago over TAMPA BAY (-3), 1:00 ET.

Tough game to call. As the line indicates, the teams are relatively equal, and neither has any hope of making the playoffs. Kirk Cousins and Washington proved earlier this season that a competent QB with weapons can tear the Tampa defense apart, and Jay Cutler has been quietly good this season. Plus, it seems like the most Bears thing to win this meaningless game and hurt their position in the draft.

Chicago 27, Tampa Bay 24.


Carolina (-6.5) over ATLANTA, 1:00 ET.

Like I said last week, I'm done picking against Carolina. I'll take it when they lose, but until then I'm not picking against them, especially not against the fraudulent Falcons. Matt Ryan has been an absolute disappointment this year, turning it over too much, not throwing enough touchdowns, and the defense isn't good either. Carolina just destroyed Atlanta 38-0 two weeks ago, so I'm fairly confident in this pick.

Carolina 35, Atlanta 14.


BUFFALO (-6.5) over Dallas, 1:00 ET.

Neither of these teams are making the playoffs, so I just look at this game as a chance for the frustrated Bills to beat up on the crappy Cowboys. The Bills didn't live up to expectations this year, after bringing in LeSean McCoy and Rex Ryan in the offseason. There was a lot of hype, and now they're 6-8. However, they're a lot more healthy than the Cowboys, and I think the Bills will take out their anger on the helpless Cowboys.

Buffalo 31, Dallas 10.


DETROIT (-9.5) over San Fransisco, 1:00 ET.

Detroit is just a better team than the 49ers. The offense is going to rip the 49ers defense apart just like they did to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, the defense is most likely going to stuff the 49ers offense and create a turnover or two, and the Lions are going to head home with a W.

Detroit 31, San Fransisco 17.


KANSAS CITY (-11.5) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Kansas City is red hot, right there with Pittsburgh and Seattle as dangerous Wild Card teams that no one wants to play. They're moving the ball even without Jamaal Charles, but the key has been their defense. They're stopping running backs at the line, staying with receivers in coverage, and especially getting to the QB. I'm very happy as a Patriots fan that we have a first round bye so we don't have to play either Kansas City or Pittsburgh in the first round.

Kansas City 28, Cleveland 10.


Indianapolis over MIAMI (-2), 1:00 ET.

I'm basing this solely on the fact that Indy still has something to play for. Houston is only a game ahead of Indy in the AFC South, so if Indy wins and Houston loses, it's all knotted up. Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven't looked like they had anything to play for for two months. They just aren't motivated, and I think the possibility of that AFC South crown on the horizon pushes the Colts to a win.

Indianapolis 20, Miami 17.


Houston (-4) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

At the same time, I don't think that Houston will lose to Tennessee. Tennessee is really bad, Houston is average, and Houston actually has something to play for. It's as simple as that.

Houston 24, Tennessee 17.


Pittsburgh (-10.5) over BALTIMORE, 1:00 ET.

Like I've said, Pittsburgh is really dangerous. Nobody in the league can match their weapons offensively (even without Le'Veon Bell), and there aren't five QB's in the league better than Ben Rothlisberger. This week is a nice, easy, confidence-builder game for them against the lowly, wounded Ravens. This one could get ugly, and not in the way this rivalry usually gets ugly.

Pittsburgh 35, Baltimore 14.


NY JETS over New England (-2), 1:00 ET.

I would pick New England if we had Julian Edelman. Or Danny Amendola, for that matter. But I can't pick them when Brandon LaFell is who you have to rely on for production from the outside. He's really good as a third option, not so much as a first. Besides that, both the Pats' starting safeties, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung, are out, which is a problem when you're going up against Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Seeing as how the last time these teams played Brady threw 90%of the Patriots' snaps, and assuming this time will be similar because of the absence of Lagarrete Blount, I just need more weapons for Brady to target to pick them.

New York 27, New England 24.

Jacksonville over NEW ORLEANS (-2.5), 4:05 ET.

Jacksonville has a lot of weapons that Blake Bortles used well for a while this season, but they struggled last week against the Falcons for... some reason. I think they'll bounce back this week purely because they're playing the Saints who have a terrible secondary and defense overall. Look for a shootout in this one.

Jacksonville 31, New Orleans 28.


ARIZONA (-5.5) over Green Bay, 4:25 ET.

I've seen enough from this Green Bay offense. I would go as far to say that they're non-contenders this year. I would pick the Panthers, Cardinals, and Seahawks over them at this point. The receivers just can't get open. That's why I think this Arizona defense is salivating over the chance to knock Aaron Rodgers' head off, and by the way, Carson Palmer is an MVP candidate. He has a lot of weapons out at Arizona, and I see him using them against Green Bay.

Arizona 31, Green Bay 24.


SEATTLE (-12) over St. Louis, 4:25 ET.

Seattle is back to being Seattle again. The defense is stifling, at least. They're doing it very differently on offense, however. Without Marshawn Lynch for much of the season and just losing Thomas Rawls, the ball has been placed in the hands of Russell Wilson to not only run and make plays outside of the pocket, but stand in the pocket and deliver the ball. And it's worked splendidly for Seattle as Wilson has thrown for 3, 5, 3, 5, and 3 touchdowns respectively the last five games with no interceptions. Seattle is very scary heading into the playoffs.

Seattle 31, St. Louis 17.


MINNESOTA (-7) over NY Giants, 8:30 ET.

Here's what it comes down to; the Vikings still have something to play for. They could still win the division (with help from the Packers) and there is a scenario where I the Falcons could take a wild card spot. Honestly, I would pick the Vikings here, anyway. They're at home, in the cold, with a defense that could take advantage of Eli Manning's ever looming turnover issues. Plus, Odell Beckham Jr. isn't suiting up for the Giants because of his one-game suspension- the result of his antics last week with Panthers CB Josh Norman. I just don't see the Giants pulling this one out when they have less motivation to do so.


Last Week: 11-2
Season: 75-38

Week 15 NFL Picks

MINNESOTA (-4.5) over Chicago, 1:00 ET.

I like Chicago more than most, but it seems like the Vikings will be desperate this week. They've lost the lead in the division and have had to some tough losses against really good teams. That defense will stand up and make enough plays against this good Bears offense to pull out the win.

Minnesota 24, Chicago 21.


JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Atlanta, 1:00 ET.

Jacksonville isn't all that bad. They have good young weapons, Blake Bortles is coming into his own. The Falcons are absolutely reeling and they can't keep the Jags off the scoreboard. Look, Jacksonville actually has a chance at the AFC South title. They're one game back, and one of the two of Indy and Houston will lose because they're playing each other. By this time Monday morning, the Jaguars will be tied for second in the division.

Jacksonville 28, Atlanta 24.


Houston over INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5), 1:00 ET.

Charlie Whitehurst might start this game for Indy. CHARLIE WHITEHURST!!!! Are you kidding me? That guy is going to beat J.J. Watt, the emerging Jadeveon Clowney, and the rest of that Texans defense? Deandre Hopkins is going to go another week without aking an impact? Come on. Why are the Colts even favored? They have no way of moving the ball!

Houston 20, Indianapolis 14.


KANSAS CITY (-7) over Baltimore, 1:00 ET.

The Chiefs are on a mission right now. The defense is playing incredibly well, and Alex Smith is actually using his wide receivers, playing some very nice football. They're moving the ball on offense, and stopping the ball on defense. Baltimore... Baltimore's a train wreck. They've been ravaged by injuries. It's very unfortunate, but I think it's karma for the whole "we employ wife-beaters and murderers and generally awful people" thing. So I won't shed a tear for them.

Kansas City 31, Baltimore 20.


WASHINGTON over Buffalo (-2), 1:00 ET.

So the Bills are 5 points better than Washington on a neutral field? Didn't the Bills just lose to the Eagles for no particular reason? What am I missing? Why do people think the Bills are really good? Are they enamored with Tyrod Taylor? I don't really get it. Washington needs this game, with the Giants playing Carolina and Philly playing Arizona, to move ahead in the division. Kirk Cousins is playing some very good football as of late, and the Washington defense is pretty nice.

Washington 27, Buffalo 24.


NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Tennessee, 1:00 ET.

The Patriots are a completely different team when Gronkowski plays. You could see it last week against the Texans; he opened up the field for the running game, for Amendola, and for LaFell. Even though he played fewer snaps than usual, you could see the impact he has on the game, the way he makes so many things possible for the Pats, and that's why it's so hard as a Pats fan to watch these safeties go after his knees each week. For now he's back, so I'm taking the Pats.

New England 31, Tennessee 17.


Carolina (-5) over NY GIANTS, 1:00 ET.

I wanted to pick the Giants for this game. As we all know, the Giants have a history of ruining streaks and undefeated seasons (sigh), and they always elevate their game against good teams. I expect nothing less than a fantastic game fro these two teams. But I'm not picking against Carolina until they prove to me that they can lose. Cam Newton has made it a legitimate battle for MVP with Tom Brady, and he's playing at a level we always wanted to see from him. I have to roll with Carolina.

Carolina 28, New York 27.


SEATTLE (-14.5) over Cleveland, 4:05 ET.

Seattle is coming on strong in recent weeks, which is about the least surprising development as we transition to the end of the season. I'll take them at home over Cleveland.

Seattle 35, Cleveland 14.


Green Bay (-4) over OAKLAND, 4:05 ET.

It was fun while it lasted with Oakland, and they should be a contender in the upcoming years if they can, but now they're running up on the Packers. Aaron Rodgers doesn't generally lose games in December, especially to the Raiders. That Packer defense has been playing well, I think they'll force some turnovers against the young David Carr.

Green Bay 31, Oakland 24.


Miami over SAN DIEGO (-2), 4:25 ET.

What a crappy game. FYI, the Chargers should never get points because they're playing at home, since they have about the opposite of a home field advantage. I don't know what's going to happen in this game, but I do know one thing; I wouldn't watch this game even if I did have NFL Sunday Ticket.

Miami 24, San Diego 20.


PITTSBURGH (-7) over Denver, 4:25 ET.

Pittsburgh needs this game to improve their spot in the standings, I think they'll play hungry, motivated. Look for a great game from Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant. I like Brock Osweiler, but I'm not sure he can take enough advantage of the Steelers atrocious secondary to keep up with Big Ben and the Steelers weapons.

Pittsburgh 31, Denver 27.


Cincinnati (-6.5) over SAN FRANSISCO, 4:25 ET.

This is a nice little match-up for the Bengals to beat up on San Fran before taking on Denver in a huge game next week. This could be a nice tune-up for AJ McCarron to gain some confidence in case he has to start that Denver game in place of Andy Dalton. This one's pretty much a foregone conclusion.

Cincinnati 35, San Fransisco 13.


Arizona (-4) over PHILADELPHIA, 8:30 ET.

Arizona and Seattle are the only teams in the NFC that I think could beat the Panthers. That's high praise. The Cardinals are really good. Carson Palmer is operating at the same level as Brady, Newton, and Russell right now, taking advantage of his many weapons. The defense is just as good as it was last year, maybe even better. Meanwhile, I'm starting to come around on the Eagles, but not enough to believe in them against this Cardinals team.

Arizona 35, Philadelphia 24.

Last Week: 9-6
Season: 64-36

Week 14 NFL Picks

Sorry for missing the last few weeks. I guess I'll just have to make these picks extra good to compensate. As always, the home team is in all caps and the time (ET) and line are given for reference.

Pittsburgh over CINCINATTI (-2.5), 1:00.

This will be the game where we definitively learn if the Bengals are legit or not. December, at home, divisional opponent, real stakes on the line... This is the game the Bengals usually lose. If they win, I will officially be behind them as a contender. But I'm going to roll with the Steelers, because they're desperate, and they didn't have all their weapons in that early season loss to the Bengals. This feels like a kitchen sink game for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh 35, Cincinatti 31.


Buffalo (PK) over PHILADELPHIA, 1:00.

The Bills aren't bad now that they have Tyrod Taylor back. THey could make a legit run at the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a huge win over my Patriots in Foxburo last week. Even though they beat my team, I'm still not convinced about Philly. That was one of the luckiest wins ever. Look out Eagles- here comes the LeSean McCoy revenge game.

Buffalo 28, Philadelphia 21.


CAROLINA (-8) over Atlanta, 1:00.

I'm done picking against Carolina. They're really good, and while I still don't think they're as good as their record indicates, I'm definitely picking them against the Falcons, who started 5-0, then proceeded to lose 6 of their next 7. They just aren't good enough to hold up against the Panthers balanced system.

Carolina 31, Atlanta 24.


San Fransisco over CLEVELAND (-1.5), 1:00.

What a crappy game. I'm picking the 49ers solely because they beat the Bears last week (who are better than everyone thinks) as Blaine Gabbert led two huge scoring drives at the end of the fourth quarter and the winner in overtime. I wouldn't bet on this game, but I have to pick it so...

San Fransisco 21, Cleveland 17.


Washington over CHICAGO (-3.5), 1:00.

This doesn't look very good after what I said about the Bears in the last pick, but there isn't much hope for the Bears to make the playoffs, so they don't really have much to fight for. Washington, meanwhile, is still in the hunt in the putrid NFC East as one of three teams leading the division at 5-7. They do have something to fight for, especially with the thought of the Giants' easy Monday night match-up with the Dolphins. This might be a must-win for the Washington professional football team.

Washington 24, Chicago 21.


Detroit (-3) over ST. LOUIS, 1:00.

Detroit has had 10 days to bounce back from that horrifying loss to the Packers that ended with an Aaaron Rodgers successful Hail Mary as time ran out. I think they'll look more like the Lions from the first half of that game as well as the Thanksgiving shellacking of the Eagles. The Rams ave given up. Their defense isn't the same as it was earlier in the season, and they have no way of throwing the ball because of the QB situation.

Detroit 31, St. Louis 21.


KANSAS CITY (-11) over San Diego, 1:00.

The Chiefs are on an absolute roll right now. They've won their last six games, a span in which they haven't allowed over 22 points. They're also finding ways to move the ball without Jamaal Charles in the backfield. I say the roll will continue against the disappointing Chargers.

Kansas City 35, San Diego 24.


TAMPA BAY (-5) over New Orleans, 1:00.

The Bucs aren't bad. After some unsurprising turnover issues early in the season, Jameis Winston has been awfully good, and the Bucaneers can move the ball with Doug Martin on the ground as well. That Saints defense won't be able to hold up against Tampa Bay's playmakers for an entire game.

Tampa Bay 28, New Orleans 24.


JACKSONVILLE (-2) over Indianapolis, 1:00.

It's all fun and games having a 40-year-old quarterback who seems to be doing well. But now we're at the time of year where you're a little more sore, a little more banged up. I think Matt Hasselbeck is feeling the effects.  don't think he can outgun a Jaguars offense that can explode at any time, especially against this Colts defense. If he tries to put the team on his back, he'll probably have a few horrendous turnovers. If he doesn't, his running game isn't good enough to beat even the Jaguars defense anyway. I got the Jags.

Jacksonville 31, Indianapolis 24.


NY JETS (-7.5) over Tennessee, 1:00.

The Jets are still in the running for a playoff spot. They get Darrelle Revis back today, who I'm certain will scare the crap out of Marcus Mariota. The Jets' running game can pound away at the Titans' defense, opening up holes for Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to make plays outside. The Jets are just a better team.

New York 27, Tennessee 20.


Seattle (-11) over BALTIMORE, 1:00.

Well, Jimmy Clausen played the Seahawks earlier this year as a member of the Bears. He got shut out. Jimmy Clausen is starting for the Ravens. I don't like this for Jimmy Clausen, and I dont like that the Seahawks look like the Seahawks again.

Seattle 35, Baltimore 14.


DENVER (-6) over Oakland, 4:05.

Brock Osweiler (currently) is a lot better than Peyton Manning. Yeah, his stats aren't that impressive, but he avoids the crushing turnovers Manning was prone to, and he can actually keep the defense honest with the occasional long pass. And Denver defense is as strong as ever.

Denver 28, Oakland 20.


GREEN BAY (-6.5) over Dallas, 4:25.

That Hail Mary could only happen for Aaron Rodgers. Unbelievable. Now they have the dismal Cowboys at home, who somehow managed to eke out a win against Washington on Monday, even without Tony Romo. I just don't see the Packers losing this one. The Cowboys can't score.

Green Bay 27, Dallas 17.

New England (-5) over Houston, 8:30.

Okay, it's time for my boys to cut the crap. We got screwed by Goodell and the refs in Denver, and then the special teams uncharacteristically killed us against the Eagles. The Patriots aren't playing well right now, and Brady is down a few weapons. However, Gronk is going to play tonight, and hopefully that will open up the field for Brady. The Pats never lose three in a row. That's what I keep telling myself.

New England 28, Houston 21.

Last Week: 0-3 (Week 12, Thanksgiving)
Season: 55-30.