Last week, when I made my Wild Card Round picks, I only felt confident about one pick; Steelers over Ravens. Of course, that was the one pick I got wrong, in a weekend of wonky games that almost seemed designed to mess with my head. I feel much more confident about this weekend's games. What does that mean? I'll probably go 1-4 this weekend. Remember, all times are Central, and the home team is in caps. Without further adieu...
Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND Saturday, 1/10, 3:35 PM
As a Patriots fan, it pains me to do this. Last week's outcome could not have been worse. I would much rather be playing Indianapolis or Cincinnati at home, two teams we have already destroyed this year and who wouldn't have any confidence going into New England. What I don't want, is a Ravens team coming off shellacking their rivals in Pittsburgh , brimming with confidence (or arrogance in the case of the Ravens). I just really don't like the Ravens. They've beaten us before in the playoffs, and they haven't been shy about their dislike for us. They're also liable to have some sketchy punks on their roster (they've employed a wife beater, a possible murderer, and (shudder of disdain) Terrell Suggs). I really dislike Suggs. He's always been a loudmouth who hated the Patriots for some reason. I just never took much of a liking to him. Needless to say, the Ravens are in my head.
It's not the same team as those Baltimore squads that gave New England trouble in the past, but John Harbaugh knows how to beat the Pats. The formula for beating New England is to get pressure on Brady, hit everyone as hard as you can, and force turnovers, and the Ravens can definitely do that with Haloti Ngata, Elvis Dumervil, and Suggs taking it to a Patriots offensive line that has looked shaky at times. Joe Flacco is in his crazily effective playoff mode, and he could change the game with just one deep attempt, whether it be a completion or a pass interference penalty (I'm looking at you Brandon Browner). Baltimore can run the ball and get big plays in the special teams from Jacoby Jones. They have a bunch of big game players. The home favorites never all cover, and this is a better bet than Dallas at Green Bay. I really don't like it but...
Ravens 24, Patriots 21
SEATTLE (-11) over Carolina Saturday, 1/10, 7:15 PM
There's not much to say here. This is the easiest game to pick. Seattle is not messing around. They've won nine of their last ten, they only lost one game at home all season (to Dallas who unbelievably went 8-0 on the road), and they will not lose to the team that only made it into the playoffs because their division sucked, and only won a playoff game because they faced a historically bad, third-string quarterback who didn't even have his number one running back. Cam Newton didn't really look good against an Arizona defense that is good, but lost its will once they realized that if they were down ten, the game was over. Newton was inaccurate and seemed to sulk at times. That vaunted Seahawks defense is licking their lips in anticipation for this. Carolina never really pulled away even while the Cardinals gained the fewest yards in NFL Playoff history! And they're supposed to win at Seattle? I just don't thinkthe Seahawks screw around with this one. They've been playing with such a swagger and confidence lately, and I think it's fair to say their early struggles are behind them.
Seattle 33, Carolina 10
GREEN BAY (-5.5) over Dallas Sunday, 1/11, 1:00 PM
The game I'm most excited about. It's the Ice Bowl II. Two classic franchises who have battled before. You don't know how badly I wanted to pick Dallas in this game. Living in Minnesota and having my dad and brother as Bears fans, I've developed a healthy dislike for the Packers, especially the admitted football perfection that is Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is, as previously stated, undefeated on the road this year. Ndamukong Suh stepped on Rodgers' leg in Week 17, taking him out of the game and bringing this week's news that Rodgers had a slight tear in his calf muscle. Dallas' running attack with Demarco Murray behind that stellar offensive line can shred that weak Packers defense and keep Rodgers off the field. The frigid conditions could take the fans out of the game and reduce the home field advantage that Green Bay usually enjoys when the Cheeseheads come out in full force. That same cold could also harden the field to the degree that any good hit Dallas lays on Rodgers could be the one that takes him out of the game. Dallas got the playoff monkey off their backs with last week's win against Detroit.
All of these are reasons why I could take Dallas. But I won't.
The reason I'm taking the Packers is basically just Aaron Rodgers. And the weapons he has around him, I guess. Rodgers has just been otherworldly at Lambeau, having not thrown a pick there for a solid two years. He does have the right weapons around him, with Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy among the playmakers Rodgers has to work with. The Packers' offense is too much for this questionable Dallas defense to handle. That Cowboys defense looked better than it is in the second half against a secretly shaky Lions offense last week that didn't have the classic Calvin Johnson we all know and love, and I think Matthew Stafford is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the league. Rodgers will tear through Dallas, even on a busted wheel. I'm anticipating a high scoring game, I just don't think the Cowboys can get the stops when it matters.
Green Bay 38, Dallas 33
DENVER (-7) over Indianapolis Sunday, 1/11, 3:40 PM
It's just like Denver to deteriorate the last half of the season, get the two seed, and still pull the easier game after the bye over the one seed Patriots. As I said earlier, I'd much rather have Indianapolis traveling to Foxboro than the Ravens. The Colts haven't beaten anyone all that good this year. Their best win was either their shut out of Cincinnati or a seven point win over suddenly scary Baltimore in Week 5. Other than that they were destroyed by Denver, Philly, Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas (you know, five of the best seven teams they played) by a combined point differential of 84 points! Are you kidding me? These guys cant play with the good teams! And no matter how bad they may have looked recently, Denver is still really freaking good.
Denver's new found rushing game could exploit a glaring deficiency in the Colts' defense. They can't stop The run when they have to respect the pass of the other team, which they didn't need to last week against the Red Rocket minus the services of AJ Green. Even though the Colts have Pro Bowl cornerback Vontae Davis, the reason Denver is so scary is that they have so many weapons. Between Demaryius and Julius Thomas, running back C.J. Anderson, and Emmanuel Sanders, there's too many weapons for Indianapolis to handle. I can't trust the Colts. They looked better than they are last week against the perpetually disappointing playoff version of the Bengals. Don't get drawn in by their success and Denver's noted struggles.
Denver 31, Indianapolis 20
Last Week: 3-1
Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND Saturday, 1/10, 3:35 PM
As a Patriots fan, it pains me to do this. Last week's outcome could not have been worse. I would much rather be playing Indianapolis or Cincinnati at home, two teams we have already destroyed this year and who wouldn't have any confidence going into New England. What I don't want, is a Ravens team coming off shellacking their rivals in Pittsburgh , brimming with confidence (or arrogance in the case of the Ravens). I just really don't like the Ravens. They've beaten us before in the playoffs, and they haven't been shy about their dislike for us. They're also liable to have some sketchy punks on their roster (they've employed a wife beater, a possible murderer, and (shudder of disdain) Terrell Suggs). I really dislike Suggs. He's always been a loudmouth who hated the Patriots for some reason. I just never took much of a liking to him. Needless to say, the Ravens are in my head.
It's not the same team as those Baltimore squads that gave New England trouble in the past, but John Harbaugh knows how to beat the Pats. The formula for beating New England is to get pressure on Brady, hit everyone as hard as you can, and force turnovers, and the Ravens can definitely do that with Haloti Ngata, Elvis Dumervil, and Suggs taking it to a Patriots offensive line that has looked shaky at times. Joe Flacco is in his crazily effective playoff mode, and he could change the game with just one deep attempt, whether it be a completion or a pass interference penalty (I'm looking at you Brandon Browner). Baltimore can run the ball and get big plays in the special teams from Jacoby Jones. They have a bunch of big game players. The home favorites never all cover, and this is a better bet than Dallas at Green Bay. I really don't like it but...
Ravens 24, Patriots 21
SEATTLE (-11) over Carolina Saturday, 1/10, 7:15 PM
There's not much to say here. This is the easiest game to pick. Seattle is not messing around. They've won nine of their last ten, they only lost one game at home all season (to Dallas who unbelievably went 8-0 on the road), and they will not lose to the team that only made it into the playoffs because their division sucked, and only won a playoff game because they faced a historically bad, third-string quarterback who didn't even have his number one running back. Cam Newton didn't really look good against an Arizona defense that is good, but lost its will once they realized that if they were down ten, the game was over. Newton was inaccurate and seemed to sulk at times. That vaunted Seahawks defense is licking their lips in anticipation for this. Carolina never really pulled away even while the Cardinals gained the fewest yards in NFL Playoff history! And they're supposed to win at Seattle? I just don't thinkthe Seahawks screw around with this one. They've been playing with such a swagger and confidence lately, and I think it's fair to say their early struggles are behind them.
Seattle 33, Carolina 10
GREEN BAY (-5.5) over Dallas Sunday, 1/11, 1:00 PM
The game I'm most excited about. It's the Ice Bowl II. Two classic franchises who have battled before. You don't know how badly I wanted to pick Dallas in this game. Living in Minnesota and having my dad and brother as Bears fans, I've developed a healthy dislike for the Packers, especially the admitted football perfection that is Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is, as previously stated, undefeated on the road this year. Ndamukong Suh stepped on Rodgers' leg in Week 17, taking him out of the game and bringing this week's news that Rodgers had a slight tear in his calf muscle. Dallas' running attack with Demarco Murray behind that stellar offensive line can shred that weak Packers defense and keep Rodgers off the field. The frigid conditions could take the fans out of the game and reduce the home field advantage that Green Bay usually enjoys when the Cheeseheads come out in full force. That same cold could also harden the field to the degree that any good hit Dallas lays on Rodgers could be the one that takes him out of the game. Dallas got the playoff monkey off their backs with last week's win against Detroit.
All of these are reasons why I could take Dallas. But I won't.
The reason I'm taking the Packers is basically just Aaron Rodgers. And the weapons he has around him, I guess. Rodgers has just been otherworldly at Lambeau, having not thrown a pick there for a solid two years. He does have the right weapons around him, with Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy among the playmakers Rodgers has to work with. The Packers' offense is too much for this questionable Dallas defense to handle. That Cowboys defense looked better than it is in the second half against a secretly shaky Lions offense last week that didn't have the classic Calvin Johnson we all know and love, and I think Matthew Stafford is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the league. Rodgers will tear through Dallas, even on a busted wheel. I'm anticipating a high scoring game, I just don't think the Cowboys can get the stops when it matters.
Green Bay 38, Dallas 33
DENVER (-7) over Indianapolis Sunday, 1/11, 3:40 PM
It's just like Denver to deteriorate the last half of the season, get the two seed, and still pull the easier game after the bye over the one seed Patriots. As I said earlier, I'd much rather have Indianapolis traveling to Foxboro than the Ravens. The Colts haven't beaten anyone all that good this year. Their best win was either their shut out of Cincinnati or a seven point win over suddenly scary Baltimore in Week 5. Other than that they were destroyed by Denver, Philly, Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas (you know, five of the best seven teams they played) by a combined point differential of 84 points! Are you kidding me? These guys cant play with the good teams! And no matter how bad they may have looked recently, Denver is still really freaking good.
Denver's new found rushing game could exploit a glaring deficiency in the Colts' defense. They can't stop The run when they have to respect the pass of the other team, which they didn't need to last week against the Red Rocket minus the services of AJ Green. Even though the Colts have Pro Bowl cornerback Vontae Davis, the reason Denver is so scary is that they have so many weapons. Between Demaryius and Julius Thomas, running back C.J. Anderson, and Emmanuel Sanders, there's too many weapons for Indianapolis to handle. I can't trust the Colts. They looked better than they are last week against the perpetually disappointing playoff version of the Bengals. Don't get drawn in by their success and Denver's noted struggles.
Denver 31, Indianapolis 20
Last Week: 3-1
No comments:
Post a Comment