In this column I'll be previewing the NFL Wild Card round playoff games. I'll make my picks for the games and I'll post the odds for the game from Vegas. The home team is in caps. If you don't know how Vegas odds work, the - sign is how many points the favored team should win by, the + sign is how many points the underdog should lose by. I will also list the day, date, and time of the game, all times are central. After my explanations, I'll give my expected score. Let's go.
CAROLINA (-6.5) over Arizona Saturday, 1/3, 3:35 PM
This one comes down to the ultimate in picking playoff games; don't take a shaky quarterback, especially on the road against a Carolina defense that is quietly rounding into the poor man's version of the 2013 Panthers. Seriously, I was looking for any reason to pick the Cardinals in this game. They earned the right to be in the playoffs, winning nine of their first ten games before losing their QB Carson Palmer in their Week 10 win over the St. Louis Rams. That's when their dreams of playing at home in the Super Bowl effectively vanished. With Palmer, they looked like the best team in the NFC, but it's hard to look all that great with a backup QB. It only got worse when their backup QB Drew Stanton was injured in Arizona's Week 15 victory over the Rams. That's when third-stringer Ryan Lindley entered the fold. Lindley entered next week's game against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks defense with 181 pass attempts without a touchdown, the most in NFL history, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
I honestly hope I'm wrong, because it's so unfortunate that a season that started with home Super Bowl aspirations could end without a playoff victory, all because of terrible injury luck. Even if Stanton, the back-up, were starting, I would pick the Cardinals. But the fact that Arizona has to start the historically bad Lindley on the road is just too much to overcome.
Another reason this annoys me is that Carolina didn't deserve to make it into the playoffs. They only made it because they play in a terrible division, the NFC South. They have a losing record on the season. After they won on October fifth at home against Chicago, they tied the Bengals the next week at Cincinnati, and then lost every game they played until a December 7th win at New Orleans (they had a Week 12 bye). They didn't win for nearly two months! And this team deserves to be in the playoffs?
However, none of this matters now. They destroyed Atlanta last week to win the division and secure a playoff game at home. And however unfair it may seem for these two teams to be in the positions they are, I'll take Cam Newton, national champion in college who played in the playoffs last year, over Ryan Lindley any day.
Carolina 13, Arizona 6
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore Saturday, 1/3, 7:15 PM
As a Patriots fan, I'm abjectly terrified of the Steelers, so I'm hoping I'm wrong on this one, too. The one thing they're bad at (defending the deep pass) is the one thing the Pats have struggled with on offense this year, as Tom Brady is slowly moving into the Peyton Manning zone in terms of losing the ability to throw powerfully and accurately downfield. And sure, Joe Flacco is one of the quarterbacks you would pick out to exploit that deep pass deficiency for Pittsburgh's defense. But I can't pick the Ravens after their seeming attempt to throw away a playoff spot recently. Here's how their last five games have gone:
Week 13: Chargers 34 RAVENS 33
Baltimore throws away a 30-20 lead with 6:13 remaining at home to a very beatable Chargers team. remember, the Ravens were fighting San Diego for a playoff spot until Week 17, so they should have gotten up for this game.
Week 14: Ravens 28 DOLPHINS 13
Not exactly a great win. The Dolphins proved themselves to be mediocre this year, and it's not like the Ravens dominated the game.
Week 15: Jaguars 12 RAVENS 20
Same as the Dolphins game, only Jacksonville was worse than Miami this year, the win was even less dominating, and Baltimore was at home. Not impressive.
Week 16: Ravens 13 TEXANS 25
This is where I really lost confidence in Baltimore. Flacco went 21 of 50 for 195 yards (a completion percentage of 42% and YPA of 3.9) with three INT's, two TD's, and a QBR of 3.2. 'Nuff said.
Week 17: BROWNS 10 Ravens 20
In a must-win game against the rival Browns, a team that lost its final five games of the season and, amid the chaos of the Johnny Manziel debacle, had to start CONNOR FREAKING SHAW, the Ravens never really showed that they were a playoff team. They never pulled away from a reeling Browns squad in a game they had to have to win? How could you back that team?
And please don't forget about these few things going Pittsburgh's way:
Big Ben in a big game, the Ravens having beaten just one team all season with a record above .500, Antonio Brown, Flacco's recent performance, the karmic ramifications of how the Ray Rice ordeal went down, Antonio Brown, all of Pittsburgh's weapons at receiver, Pittsburgh's ability to rush the passer, and Antonio Brown kick/punt returns. It hurts for the Steelers to lose Le'veon Bell, but that just serves to make the game closer in what should be a classic Steelers-Ravens chippy slugfest.
Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 24
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over Cincinnati Sunday, 1/4, 1:00 PM
I really don't like this one. I don't trust either of these teams. It comes down to a few factors: Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano over Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis in a big game, Indianapolis getting home field, and AJ Green probably not playing. That last one is key. When Green missed the Bengals' game against the Colts in Week 7, Indy shut Cincy out en route to a 27-0 thrashing. With no deep threat, the Colts were able to stack the box and limit Cincy's output on the ground. I'm betting on the same thing happening on Sunday. A few things that worry me:
1) The Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard running attack for Cincy destroying the weak run defense of the Colts. Because of the aforementioned absence of AJ Green, I hope the Colts can overcome this by stacking the box against the run and forcing Dalton into typical Dalton-in-a-big-game mistakes.
2) Luck quietly has a lot of turnovers this year, and the Bengals' secondary is excellent. Watch out for that.
3) Indianapolis might have the worst running backs in the league. After Ahmad Bradshaw's injury, they've been playing Trent Richardson at RB. TRENT RICHARDSON!!! Very dangerous territory.
But, like I said, I'll take Andrew the Giant and Chuck Strong over the Red Rocket and Marvin Lewis (sorry, he's too bland for anyone to have given him a nickname) in a playoff game.
Indianapolis 24, Cincinnati 21
DALLAS (-6.5) over Detroit
I wavered on this one a lot. Let's consider the cases for both teams.
DETROIT
-Got Ndamukong Suh for the game after the league repealed Suh's suspension for stepping on Aaron Rodgers (to me, on purpose). Suh has been their best player this year and the key cog in Detroit's excellent run defense, key in stopping the Cowboys' Demarco Murray behind the league's best offensive line.
-Tony Romo and Jason Garrett in a big/playoff game. So far these two have done well in big games this season, but the monster could rear it's ugly head at any point.
-Calvin Johnson might just be getting healthy just in time to rip apart a sub-par Dallas defense.
-Dallas' biggest strength (running the ball) is what the Lion's stop best.
-The Cowboys haven't had much of a home field advantage this year, going just 4-4 at Jerry World.
-The possibility that Suh knocks Murray out of the game by stomping on his previously broken left hand.
-Wouldn't it be the most Cowboys-esque thing if Dallas lost in the first round once they finally made it above 8-8 and into the playoffs?
DALLAS
-Demarco Murray got the single season rushing record in Cowboys history. Remember how Emmitt Smith was once on the Cowboys? Murray is really freaking good, especially behind that offensive line.
-Matthew Stafford and Jim Caldwell in a road playoff game. Little less than trustworthy.
-Sure, Detroit's defense has looked great, but usually only when they're playing bad teams. The only two times they played really good offensive teams, they gave up at least 30 (Week 12, lost 34-9 to the Pats, Week 17, lost 30-20 to the Packers). I'm not counting that first Packers game because Green Bay wasn't what they are now.
-Stafford is 3-31 all time against teams that finished the year with winning records, and he's never beaten an above-.500 team on the road. Not so impressive.
-Along with Murray's broken record, Dez Bryant passed Terrell Owens for most TD catches in a season by a Cowboy. Dez is also really freaking good.
-Romo's 114.4 passer rating for the season is sixth best in NFL history. The running game really allowed him to play well this year, since he wasn't having to throw so much in every game. He's like Jay Cutler in that if you make them throw the ball a lot, of course they'll have turnovers. You just have to call the game right, leaning more on the running game to set up easy throws.
-Dallas went 4-0 in December, contradicting recent history.
-With Murray, Dez, that offensive line, Terrance Williams, the surprising Cole Beasley in the slot and veteran TE Jason Witten, Romo has a ton of weapons to work with.
- At times, Detroit's offense has looked totally stagnant this year. Stafford makes a lot of mistakes, Megatron has not looked himself with all the injuries, and their running game is non-descript. Lucky for this below average Dallas defense.
-Jim Caldwell is the Lions' coach. This is not good for Detroit. Caldwell literally shows no emotion while he's out there, and the camera hardly ever finds him talking or moving. It's like the Lions send out a cardboard cut-out each Sunday.
-Everything is setting up for the Cowboys to go to Lambeau next week for The Ice Bowl II. If you can't get excited for that, I don't know what to tell you.
See how there are many more points in the case for Dallas? That's why I'm picking them.
Oh, and because they're playing the freaking Lions.
Dallas 28, Detroit 21
CAROLINA (-6.5) over Arizona Saturday, 1/3, 3:35 PM
This one comes down to the ultimate in picking playoff games; don't take a shaky quarterback, especially on the road against a Carolina defense that is quietly rounding into the poor man's version of the 2013 Panthers. Seriously, I was looking for any reason to pick the Cardinals in this game. They earned the right to be in the playoffs, winning nine of their first ten games before losing their QB Carson Palmer in their Week 10 win over the St. Louis Rams. That's when their dreams of playing at home in the Super Bowl effectively vanished. With Palmer, they looked like the best team in the NFC, but it's hard to look all that great with a backup QB. It only got worse when their backup QB Drew Stanton was injured in Arizona's Week 15 victory over the Rams. That's when third-stringer Ryan Lindley entered the fold. Lindley entered next week's game against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks defense with 181 pass attempts without a touchdown, the most in NFL history, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
I honestly hope I'm wrong, because it's so unfortunate that a season that started with home Super Bowl aspirations could end without a playoff victory, all because of terrible injury luck. Even if Stanton, the back-up, were starting, I would pick the Cardinals. But the fact that Arizona has to start the historically bad Lindley on the road is just too much to overcome.
Another reason this annoys me is that Carolina didn't deserve to make it into the playoffs. They only made it because they play in a terrible division, the NFC South. They have a losing record on the season. After they won on October fifth at home against Chicago, they tied the Bengals the next week at Cincinnati, and then lost every game they played until a December 7th win at New Orleans (they had a Week 12 bye). They didn't win for nearly two months! And this team deserves to be in the playoffs?
However, none of this matters now. They destroyed Atlanta last week to win the division and secure a playoff game at home. And however unfair it may seem for these two teams to be in the positions they are, I'll take Cam Newton, national champion in college who played in the playoffs last year, over Ryan Lindley any day.
Carolina 13, Arizona 6
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore Saturday, 1/3, 7:15 PM
As a Patriots fan, I'm abjectly terrified of the Steelers, so I'm hoping I'm wrong on this one, too. The one thing they're bad at (defending the deep pass) is the one thing the Pats have struggled with on offense this year, as Tom Brady is slowly moving into the Peyton Manning zone in terms of losing the ability to throw powerfully and accurately downfield. And sure, Joe Flacco is one of the quarterbacks you would pick out to exploit that deep pass deficiency for Pittsburgh's defense. But I can't pick the Ravens after their seeming attempt to throw away a playoff spot recently. Here's how their last five games have gone:
Week 13: Chargers 34 RAVENS 33
Baltimore throws away a 30-20 lead with 6:13 remaining at home to a very beatable Chargers team. remember, the Ravens were fighting San Diego for a playoff spot until Week 17, so they should have gotten up for this game.
Week 14: Ravens 28 DOLPHINS 13
Not exactly a great win. The Dolphins proved themselves to be mediocre this year, and it's not like the Ravens dominated the game.
Week 15: Jaguars 12 RAVENS 20
Same as the Dolphins game, only Jacksonville was worse than Miami this year, the win was even less dominating, and Baltimore was at home. Not impressive.
Week 16: Ravens 13 TEXANS 25
This is where I really lost confidence in Baltimore. Flacco went 21 of 50 for 195 yards (a completion percentage of 42% and YPA of 3.9) with three INT's, two TD's, and a QBR of 3.2. 'Nuff said.
Week 17: BROWNS 10 Ravens 20
In a must-win game against the rival Browns, a team that lost its final five games of the season and, amid the chaos of the Johnny Manziel debacle, had to start CONNOR FREAKING SHAW, the Ravens never really showed that they were a playoff team. They never pulled away from a reeling Browns squad in a game they had to have to win? How could you back that team?
And please don't forget about these few things going Pittsburgh's way:
Big Ben in a big game, the Ravens having beaten just one team all season with a record above .500, Antonio Brown, Flacco's recent performance, the karmic ramifications of how the Ray Rice ordeal went down, Antonio Brown, all of Pittsburgh's weapons at receiver, Pittsburgh's ability to rush the passer, and Antonio Brown kick/punt returns. It hurts for the Steelers to lose Le'veon Bell, but that just serves to make the game closer in what should be a classic Steelers-Ravens chippy slugfest.
Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 24
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over Cincinnati Sunday, 1/4, 1:00 PM
I really don't like this one. I don't trust either of these teams. It comes down to a few factors: Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano over Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis in a big game, Indianapolis getting home field, and AJ Green probably not playing. That last one is key. When Green missed the Bengals' game against the Colts in Week 7, Indy shut Cincy out en route to a 27-0 thrashing. With no deep threat, the Colts were able to stack the box and limit Cincy's output on the ground. I'm betting on the same thing happening on Sunday. A few things that worry me:
1) The Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard running attack for Cincy destroying the weak run defense of the Colts. Because of the aforementioned absence of AJ Green, I hope the Colts can overcome this by stacking the box against the run and forcing Dalton into typical Dalton-in-a-big-game mistakes.
2) Luck quietly has a lot of turnovers this year, and the Bengals' secondary is excellent. Watch out for that.
3) Indianapolis might have the worst running backs in the league. After Ahmad Bradshaw's injury, they've been playing Trent Richardson at RB. TRENT RICHARDSON!!! Very dangerous territory.
But, like I said, I'll take Andrew the Giant and Chuck Strong over the Red Rocket and Marvin Lewis (sorry, he's too bland for anyone to have given him a nickname) in a playoff game.
Indianapolis 24, Cincinnati 21
DALLAS (-6.5) over Detroit
I wavered on this one a lot. Let's consider the cases for both teams.
DETROIT
-Got Ndamukong Suh for the game after the league repealed Suh's suspension for stepping on Aaron Rodgers (to me, on purpose). Suh has been their best player this year and the key cog in Detroit's excellent run defense, key in stopping the Cowboys' Demarco Murray behind the league's best offensive line.
-Tony Romo and Jason Garrett in a big/playoff game. So far these two have done well in big games this season, but the monster could rear it's ugly head at any point.
-Calvin Johnson might just be getting healthy just in time to rip apart a sub-par Dallas defense.
-Dallas' biggest strength (running the ball) is what the Lion's stop best.
-The Cowboys haven't had much of a home field advantage this year, going just 4-4 at Jerry World.
-The possibility that Suh knocks Murray out of the game by stomping on his previously broken left hand.
-Wouldn't it be the most Cowboys-esque thing if Dallas lost in the first round once they finally made it above 8-8 and into the playoffs?
DALLAS
-Demarco Murray got the single season rushing record in Cowboys history. Remember how Emmitt Smith was once on the Cowboys? Murray is really freaking good, especially behind that offensive line.
-Matthew Stafford and Jim Caldwell in a road playoff game. Little less than trustworthy.
-Sure, Detroit's defense has looked great, but usually only when they're playing bad teams. The only two times they played really good offensive teams, they gave up at least 30 (Week 12, lost 34-9 to the Pats, Week 17, lost 30-20 to the Packers). I'm not counting that first Packers game because Green Bay wasn't what they are now.
-Stafford is 3-31 all time against teams that finished the year with winning records, and he's never beaten an above-.500 team on the road. Not so impressive.
-Along with Murray's broken record, Dez Bryant passed Terrell Owens for most TD catches in a season by a Cowboy. Dez is also really freaking good.
-Romo's 114.4 passer rating for the season is sixth best in NFL history. The running game really allowed him to play well this year, since he wasn't having to throw so much in every game. He's like Jay Cutler in that if you make them throw the ball a lot, of course they'll have turnovers. You just have to call the game right, leaning more on the running game to set up easy throws.
-Dallas went 4-0 in December, contradicting recent history.
-With Murray, Dez, that offensive line, Terrance Williams, the surprising Cole Beasley in the slot and veteran TE Jason Witten, Romo has a ton of weapons to work with.
- At times, Detroit's offense has looked totally stagnant this year. Stafford makes a lot of mistakes, Megatron has not looked himself with all the injuries, and their running game is non-descript. Lucky for this below average Dallas defense.
-Jim Caldwell is the Lions' coach. This is not good for Detroit. Caldwell literally shows no emotion while he's out there, and the camera hardly ever finds him talking or moving. It's like the Lions send out a cardboard cut-out each Sunday.
-Everything is setting up for the Cowboys to go to Lambeau next week for The Ice Bowl II. If you can't get excited for that, I don't know what to tell you.
See how there are many more points in the case for Dallas? That's why I'm picking them.
Oh, and because they're playing the freaking Lions.
Dallas 28, Detroit 21
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