Week 10 NFL Picks

I'm not excited for this week in the NFL. How could I be when my Patriots are going up against the arch-rival Giants? I'm a nervous wreck. The Giants live to end Patriot undefeated seasons, as we all know. I'm going to take my mind off it by picking these games. The home team is in all caps and the time and line are given for reference. (Sorry for missing last week, by the way)

GREEN BAY (-10.5) over Detroit, 1:00 ET.

Here's all the reasons the Packers would win this game:

• Pissed off after two road losses in which they didn't perform as well as they could:
• Aaron Rodgers at home.
• Detroit is vulnerable in every respect on defense.
• Detroit has nothing going on offense and are turnover-prone, and the Packers defense thrives on turnovers.
• Aaron Rodgers at home.
• A bunch of drunk Wisconsians wearing cheese on their head.
• Aaron Rodgers at home.

And here's all the reasons Detroit would win:

• Literally none.

Green Bay 31, Detroit 14.

TAMPA BAY over Dallas (-1), 1:00 ET.

I just don't think it's Dallas' year. They've been destroyed by injuries the likes of which I can't remember in football. Dallas proved vulnerable against the run against the Eagles last week, and Doug Martin, although struggling lately, could show out. Plus, the Dallas defense doesn't force the thing that Jameis Winston is bad at, which is forcing turnovers. As for the other side of the ball, It's just going to be tough for the Cowboys until Tony Romo returns.

Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 20.

Carolina (-4) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

I don't think Carolina is going to run away with this like some people might think. Tennessee is good when Marcus Mariota is playing, and he's back from injury. I envision a low-scorer, which favors the Panthers.

Carolina 20, Tennessee 14.

ST. LOUIS (-7) over Chicago, 1:00 ET.

I like the Bears more than most, but not more than I like the Rams. They have a really good defense and a young stud running in Todd Gurley. After heroically pulling out a late win last week in San Diego and having a few talking heads over at ESPN talk about how he's been underrated, I'm afraid this is the week Jay Cutler has four turnovers and gets written off for the rest of the season, even though he could play well the rest of the year.

St. Louis 27, Chicago 20.

New Orleans (PK) over WASHINGTON, 1:00 ET.

I don't want to go near this game, because anything could happen. Drew Brees could pick the Washington defense apart, or Washington could grind out a tough W. I really don't know, but I have to make a pick, so:

New Orleans 28, Washington 24.

PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Miami, 1:00 ET.

I don't like Philadelphia. I still don't believe in them as a playoff team. But I sure like them a lot more than the Dolphins without Cameron Wake. Sam Bradford struggles against pressure, but without Wake wreaking havoc on the line, Bradford can just dink and dunk the Eagles to a win.

Philladelphia 28, Miami 21.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5), over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Yeah, Ben Rothlisberger is out. Yeah, Le'veon Bell is out for the year. They're still playing the Cleveland Browns, who always find a way to lose.

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20.

Jacksonville over BALTIMORE (-5.5), 1:00 ET.

In football gambling, the home team is supposed to get three points for home field advantage. So the Ravens are three points better than the Jaguars on a neutral field? No way. The Ravens are crappy, and you can't tell me otherwise.

Jacksonville 27, Baltimore 23.

Minnesota over OAKLAND (-3), 4:05 ET.

Both of these teams have been surprisingly good this year, and I like both. Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out momentarily by a dirty hit against the Rams last week, and it is worrying that he's back one week later, but their offense is based on Adrian Paterson anyway. I think that the Vikings have a really good defense and will make the big play needed to stop the high-powered Raiders.

Minnesota 26, Oakland 24.

DENVER (-3.5) over Kansas City, 4:25 ET.

Denver is only getting 3.5 points at home? Meaning they're supposedly half a point better than the Chiefs in a neutral setting? With that defense at home against the Chiefs without Jamaal Charles?

I think people are overreacting to Denver losing at Indianapolis. Listen; it's really hard to go undefeated. Denver was bound to lose at some point. That doesn't mean they'll lose to the Chiefs.

Denver 24, Kansas City 17.

New England (-7) over NY GIANTS, 4:25 ET.

My stomach is queasy about this one. I won't be mad if the Patriots don't go undefeated; that's too much to ask. But I definitely don't want it to end against the hated Giants. The Giants have the playmakers to hurt the Patriots pass defense, and the Patriots haven't been strong where Eli Manning is historically weak (turnovers). Meanwhile, the Giants have Jason Pierre-Paul back, who looked good last week, against the makeshift Pats offensive line. We all know that the formula for beating the Patriots is to get pressure on Brady up the middle by winning one-on-one battles so the secondary can sit back and not blitz. That's the formula the Giants used to take down the Patriots in two Super Bowls. I still think the Pats will win, but I'm not confident.

New England 28, New York 27.

Arizona over SEATTLE (-3), 8:30 ET.

Seattle just isn't as good this year. There's something weird going on with the chemistry in that locker room. I just think the Cardinals are flat out better than the Seahawks. Carson Palmer has been really good and has a ton of weapons. Chris Johnson has been a revelation. And the defense is just as effective as it was last year.

Arizona 27, Seattle 24. 

Last week (Week 8): 7-6
Season: 48-22.