Monday, November 2, 2015

Week 8 Monday Night Pick

This week's Monday night game is the 3-4 Indianapolis Colts at the 6-0 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are coming off a gritty win last week against the Eagles in which they withstood three interceptions from Cam Newton to win 27-16 against a lackluster Eagles team. Meanwhile, the Colts lost a horrendous game last week to the Saints who are belatedly coming on as Drew Brees climbed out of his coffin to throw seven touchdowns this week. In losing to the Saints, the Colts were able to put up only 21 points, even though Eli Manning just threw six touchdowns on them yesterday. The line and time of the game are given for reference, and the home team is in all caps.

CAROLINA (-5.5) over Indianapolis, 8:30 ET.

I don't like this game. Carolina isn't as good as their record indicates, but the Colts actually looked better when Matt Hasselbeck was running the offense instead of Andrew Luck, which isn't as surprising as it was now that news has come out that Andrew Luck has been playing with broken ribs and the Colts (who just wanted a level playing field during the whole Deflategate mess but apparently the level playing field doesn't apply to them) didn't report it. The defense hasn't been able to stop anyone on the ground or in the air, they haven't been able to run the ball, and Andrew Luck has one of the league's worst QBR's, quarterback ratings, turnover rates, whatever you want. I've been waiting patiently for Luck to turn it around, thinking that people were overreacting to his early season swoon. Now? It's time for Luck to turn it around. ASAP. It's time for Luck to prove that he's still one of the league's premier signal-callers, and make a statement against a very good Carolina defense. And I think he will play a little better than he has been.

But it won't be enough. The Panthers have the kind of downhill backs that have ripped up the Colts in the past (see Blount, Lagarrette) in Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert, as well as the most physically imposing QB the league has ever seen in Cam Newton to run right at them, too. The Colts can't guard tight ends; Greg Olsen is playing like a top-five tight end and is the first option through the air for the Panthers. It's just not a very good match-up for the Colts. They don't have the offensive line to give Luck the kind of time to find his considerable weapons against the Carolina secondary, and that leads to a lack of a running game. The Colts don't have the synchronization on offense to win this game.

Now, this is more about what's wrong with the Colts than what I like about the Panthers. I don't think Carolina is as good as their record indicates, and I think they will have at least three losses by the end of the year. They will lose to a fuming Packers team coming off a god-awful game against the Broncos last night. They could lose to the Cowboys (returning Tony Romo), Saints, Falcons, or Giants. But for now, against the Colts who can only be described as struggling? They'll do enough to win tonight.

Carolina 27, Indianapolis 21

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