Thanksgiving might be my favorite holiday of the year. Sure, you don't get presents or candy, but the last few years my family have visited my brother at the University of Michigan for Thanksgiving. He's in the band, and it would be hard for him to get back for the huge Ohio State game that always follows Thanksgiving on Saturday. Anyway, it's become one of my favorite traditions to come and visit here and watch NFL games in a guest house with my family, not to mention we've gone to the Ohio State game when it's been here. I know a lot of people have a similar fondness for this holiday, and it's to those people that I dedicate these latest picks. As always, the home team is in all caps and the line and time of the game are given for reference.
Philadelphia (-2.5) over DETROIT, 12:30 ET.
I think people are finally starting to figure out that the Eagles aren't that good. -2.5 is a good line for them here against the lowly Lions. I'm looking for the Eagles defense to rebound from a rough game last week to put pressure on Matt Stafford and force some typical Stafford turnovers.
What people seem to forget is that it's really hard to be a one-dimensional offense in the NFL, and the Lions are about as one-dimensional as anyone. They hardly ever run the ball, and that puts an enormous amount of pressure on Stafford to make every play and big plays for the Lions, and when you have the gunslinger's mentality that Stafford has, it's going to lead to turnovers. The Lions need to make finding a running game their main goal this offseason, but for now, the Eagles will be able to key in on Stafford.
As for the Eagles offense, Mark Sanchez appeared to be an upgrade over Sam Bradford last week until he, along with everyone else, remembered that he's Mark Sanchez and ended up with three interceptions. He appears to be getting the start again this week, so we'll have to see if he can step his game up in prime time like he did on Thanksgiving last year in destroying the Cowboys. All I know is, I don't like picking games where I don't trust either team, and this is a prime example of that kind of game.
Philadelphia 23, Detroit 21.
DALLAS (-1) over Carolina, 4:30 ET.
I don't know if there's any legitimate reason to pick the Cowboys, on paper anyway. What the Cowboys do well offensively (running game, big plays to Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, security blanket for Tony Romo over the middle in tight end Jason Witten) the Panthers match up well with (push up front, great, physical secondary, Luke Kuechly patrolling the middle of the field). The same is true for the other side of the ball; the Cowboys can't stop the run, the Panthers excel at running the ball, and they have a big,strong, mobile QB to escape the Dallas pass rush and make plays down the field.
So there isn't much rhyme or reason to this pick, I'm really just basing my decision on the fact that I don't think Carolina is good enough to go undefeated for this long. I really like them, just not that much. Also, the Cowboys are hungry, needing a win this week to stay in the race for the NFC East. Usually when a team is hungrier, you can bet on that team to win. It's all going to come down to whether or not the Panthers can brainwash themselves into believing that they're the hungrier team. If that happens all bets are off. But for now, I'm rolling with the team that has its QB back and needs a win this week.
Dallas 24, Carolina 23.
GREEN BAY (-8) over Chicago, 8:30 ET
The Packers seemed to fix their problems last week when they killed the Vikings on the road. Their defense was swarming, recording six sacks, not giving Adrian Peterson any room, immediately tackling anyone before they got down field. I kind of figured they would bounce back after their three game skid, and even though the offense still struggled at times to generate separation, I don't see it changing this week.
The Bears have been underrated this year. They have had some bad luck against good teams; they could easily have a winning record. I just don't see them winning this game, not at Lambeau, not in prime time, not on Thanksgiving. There's always the potential for a Jay Cutler interception or two turning this game ugly; he just can't figure out the Packers. I dob't know if it will happen, it's just always hovering on the horizon.
P.S. Here's an interesting aspect to this game: What if the Bears come out and score, take it to the Packers a little bit and go into halftime tied or (gasp) maybe even leading? What if Green Bay's receivers continue to struggle to get open and Rodgers gets a little frustrated? And then the Packers have their ceremony retiring Favre's number and he looks a little too pleased with himself or makes a few snarky remarks about a comeback? I think it's very possible we see a pissed-off Rodgers account for seven touchdowns in the second half if things play out that way. We'll see.
Green Bay 31, Chicago 21.
Philadelphia (-2.5) over DETROIT, 12:30 ET.
I think people are finally starting to figure out that the Eagles aren't that good. -2.5 is a good line for them here against the lowly Lions. I'm looking for the Eagles defense to rebound from a rough game last week to put pressure on Matt Stafford and force some typical Stafford turnovers.
What people seem to forget is that it's really hard to be a one-dimensional offense in the NFL, and the Lions are about as one-dimensional as anyone. They hardly ever run the ball, and that puts an enormous amount of pressure on Stafford to make every play and big plays for the Lions, and when you have the gunslinger's mentality that Stafford has, it's going to lead to turnovers. The Lions need to make finding a running game their main goal this offseason, but for now, the Eagles will be able to key in on Stafford.
As for the Eagles offense, Mark Sanchez appeared to be an upgrade over Sam Bradford last week until he, along with everyone else, remembered that he's Mark Sanchez and ended up with three interceptions. He appears to be getting the start again this week, so we'll have to see if he can step his game up in prime time like he did on Thanksgiving last year in destroying the Cowboys. All I know is, I don't like picking games where I don't trust either team, and this is a prime example of that kind of game.
Philadelphia 23, Detroit 21.
DALLAS (-1) over Carolina, 4:30 ET.
I don't know if there's any legitimate reason to pick the Cowboys, on paper anyway. What the Cowboys do well offensively (running game, big plays to Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, security blanket for Tony Romo over the middle in tight end Jason Witten) the Panthers match up well with (push up front, great, physical secondary, Luke Kuechly patrolling the middle of the field). The same is true for the other side of the ball; the Cowboys can't stop the run, the Panthers excel at running the ball, and they have a big,strong, mobile QB to escape the Dallas pass rush and make plays down the field.
So there isn't much rhyme or reason to this pick, I'm really just basing my decision on the fact that I don't think Carolina is good enough to go undefeated for this long. I really like them, just not that much. Also, the Cowboys are hungry, needing a win this week to stay in the race for the NFC East. Usually when a team is hungrier, you can bet on that team to win. It's all going to come down to whether or not the Panthers can brainwash themselves into believing that they're the hungrier team. If that happens all bets are off. But for now, I'm rolling with the team that has its QB back and needs a win this week.
Dallas 24, Carolina 23.
GREEN BAY (-8) over Chicago, 8:30 ET
The Packers seemed to fix their problems last week when they killed the Vikings on the road. Their defense was swarming, recording six sacks, not giving Adrian Peterson any room, immediately tackling anyone before they got down field. I kind of figured they would bounce back after their three game skid, and even though the offense still struggled at times to generate separation, I don't see it changing this week.
The Bears have been underrated this year. They have had some bad luck against good teams; they could easily have a winning record. I just don't see them winning this game, not at Lambeau, not in prime time, not on Thanksgiving. There's always the potential for a Jay Cutler interception or two turning this game ugly; he just can't figure out the Packers. I dob't know if it will happen, it's just always hovering on the horizon.
P.S. Here's an interesting aspect to this game: What if the Bears come out and score, take it to the Packers a little bit and go into halftime tied or (gasp) maybe even leading? What if Green Bay's receivers continue to struggle to get open and Rodgers gets a little frustrated? And then the Packers have their ceremony retiring Favre's number and he looks a little too pleased with himself or makes a few snarky remarks about a comeback? I think it's very possible we see a pissed-off Rodgers account for seven touchdowns in the second half if things play out that way. We'll see.
Green Bay 31, Chicago 21.
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