Week 16 NFL Picks

We're coming down the stretch of this NFL season and there are a lot of story lines flying around. Will the Panthers go undefeated? Can the Patriots overcome all the debilitating injuries? Is Cincinnati finally ready to play under the lights? What's going on with the quarterback situation in Denver? Is Seattle actually the team to beat in the NFC? How many division winners will lose in the first round to the stacked wild card teams of Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle, and Minnesota? Can the Packers find their way on offense? All of these questions hover over this week's games and will affect how they play out. Home team is in all caps and the line and time are given for reference.


Chicago over TAMPA BAY (-3), 1:00 ET.

Tough game to call. As the line indicates, the teams are relatively equal, and neither has any hope of making the playoffs. Kirk Cousins and Washington proved earlier this season that a competent QB with weapons can tear the Tampa defense apart, and Jay Cutler has been quietly good this season. Plus, it seems like the most Bears thing to win this meaningless game and hurt their position in the draft.

Chicago 27, Tampa Bay 24.


Carolina (-6.5) over ATLANTA, 1:00 ET.

Like I said last week, I'm done picking against Carolina. I'll take it when they lose, but until then I'm not picking against them, especially not against the fraudulent Falcons. Matt Ryan has been an absolute disappointment this year, turning it over too much, not throwing enough touchdowns, and the defense isn't good either. Carolina just destroyed Atlanta 38-0 two weeks ago, so I'm fairly confident in this pick.

Carolina 35, Atlanta 14.


BUFFALO (-6.5) over Dallas, 1:00 ET.

Neither of these teams are making the playoffs, so I just look at this game as a chance for the frustrated Bills to beat up on the crappy Cowboys. The Bills didn't live up to expectations this year, after bringing in LeSean McCoy and Rex Ryan in the offseason. There was a lot of hype, and now they're 6-8. However, they're a lot more healthy than the Cowboys, and I think the Bills will take out their anger on the helpless Cowboys.

Buffalo 31, Dallas 10.


DETROIT (-9.5) over San Fransisco, 1:00 ET.

Detroit is just a better team than the 49ers. The offense is going to rip the 49ers defense apart just like they did to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, the defense is most likely going to stuff the 49ers offense and create a turnover or two, and the Lions are going to head home with a W.

Detroit 31, San Fransisco 17.


KANSAS CITY (-11.5) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Kansas City is red hot, right there with Pittsburgh and Seattle as dangerous Wild Card teams that no one wants to play. They're moving the ball even without Jamaal Charles, but the key has been their defense. They're stopping running backs at the line, staying with receivers in coverage, and especially getting to the QB. I'm very happy as a Patriots fan that we have a first round bye so we don't have to play either Kansas City or Pittsburgh in the first round.

Kansas City 28, Cleveland 10.


Indianapolis over MIAMI (-2), 1:00 ET.

I'm basing this solely on the fact that Indy still has something to play for. Houston is only a game ahead of Indy in the AFC South, so if Indy wins and Houston loses, it's all knotted up. Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven't looked like they had anything to play for for two months. They just aren't motivated, and I think the possibility of that AFC South crown on the horizon pushes the Colts to a win.

Indianapolis 20, Miami 17.


Houston (-4) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

At the same time, I don't think that Houston will lose to Tennessee. Tennessee is really bad, Houston is average, and Houston actually has something to play for. It's as simple as that.

Houston 24, Tennessee 17.


Pittsburgh (-10.5) over BALTIMORE, 1:00 ET.

Like I've said, Pittsburgh is really dangerous. Nobody in the league can match their weapons offensively (even without Le'Veon Bell), and there aren't five QB's in the league better than Ben Rothlisberger. This week is a nice, easy, confidence-builder game for them against the lowly, wounded Ravens. This one could get ugly, and not in the way this rivalry usually gets ugly.

Pittsburgh 35, Baltimore 14.


NY JETS over New England (-2), 1:00 ET.

I would pick New England if we had Julian Edelman. Or Danny Amendola, for that matter. But I can't pick them when Brandon LaFell is who you have to rely on for production from the outside. He's really good as a third option, not so much as a first. Besides that, both the Pats' starting safeties, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung, are out, which is a problem when you're going up against Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Seeing as how the last time these teams played Brady threw 90%of the Patriots' snaps, and assuming this time will be similar because of the absence of Lagarrete Blount, I just need more weapons for Brady to target to pick them.

New York 27, New England 24.

Jacksonville over NEW ORLEANS (-2.5), 4:05 ET.

Jacksonville has a lot of weapons that Blake Bortles used well for a while this season, but they struggled last week against the Falcons for... some reason. I think they'll bounce back this week purely because they're playing the Saints who have a terrible secondary and defense overall. Look for a shootout in this one.

Jacksonville 31, New Orleans 28.


ARIZONA (-5.5) over Green Bay, 4:25 ET.

I've seen enough from this Green Bay offense. I would go as far to say that they're non-contenders this year. I would pick the Panthers, Cardinals, and Seahawks over them at this point. The receivers just can't get open. That's why I think this Arizona defense is salivating over the chance to knock Aaron Rodgers' head off, and by the way, Carson Palmer is an MVP candidate. He has a lot of weapons out at Arizona, and I see him using them against Green Bay.

Arizona 31, Green Bay 24.


SEATTLE (-12) over St. Louis, 4:25 ET.

Seattle is back to being Seattle again. The defense is stifling, at least. They're doing it very differently on offense, however. Without Marshawn Lynch for much of the season and just losing Thomas Rawls, the ball has been placed in the hands of Russell Wilson to not only run and make plays outside of the pocket, but stand in the pocket and deliver the ball. And it's worked splendidly for Seattle as Wilson has thrown for 3, 5, 3, 5, and 3 touchdowns respectively the last five games with no interceptions. Seattle is very scary heading into the playoffs.

Seattle 31, St. Louis 17.


MINNESOTA (-7) over NY Giants, 8:30 ET.

Here's what it comes down to; the Vikings still have something to play for. They could still win the division (with help from the Packers) and there is a scenario where I the Falcons could take a wild card spot. Honestly, I would pick the Vikings here, anyway. They're at home, in the cold, with a defense that could take advantage of Eli Manning's ever looming turnover issues. Plus, Odell Beckham Jr. isn't suiting up for the Giants because of his one-game suspension- the result of his antics last week with Panthers CB Josh Norman. I just don't see the Giants pulling this one out when they have less motivation to do so.


Last Week: 11-2
Season: 75-38

Week 15 NFL Picks

MINNESOTA (-4.5) over Chicago, 1:00 ET.

I like Chicago more than most, but it seems like the Vikings will be desperate this week. They've lost the lead in the division and have had to some tough losses against really good teams. That defense will stand up and make enough plays against this good Bears offense to pull out the win.

Minnesota 24, Chicago 21.


JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Atlanta, 1:00 ET.

Jacksonville isn't all that bad. They have good young weapons, Blake Bortles is coming into his own. The Falcons are absolutely reeling and they can't keep the Jags off the scoreboard. Look, Jacksonville actually has a chance at the AFC South title. They're one game back, and one of the two of Indy and Houston will lose because they're playing each other. By this time Monday morning, the Jaguars will be tied for second in the division.

Jacksonville 28, Atlanta 24.


Houston over INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5), 1:00 ET.

Charlie Whitehurst might start this game for Indy. CHARLIE WHITEHURST!!!! Are you kidding me? That guy is going to beat J.J. Watt, the emerging Jadeveon Clowney, and the rest of that Texans defense? Deandre Hopkins is going to go another week without aking an impact? Come on. Why are the Colts even favored? They have no way of moving the ball!

Houston 20, Indianapolis 14.


KANSAS CITY (-7) over Baltimore, 1:00 ET.

The Chiefs are on a mission right now. The defense is playing incredibly well, and Alex Smith is actually using his wide receivers, playing some very nice football. They're moving the ball on offense, and stopping the ball on defense. Baltimore... Baltimore's a train wreck. They've been ravaged by injuries. It's very unfortunate, but I think it's karma for the whole "we employ wife-beaters and murderers and generally awful people" thing. So I won't shed a tear for them.

Kansas City 31, Baltimore 20.


WASHINGTON over Buffalo (-2), 1:00 ET.

So the Bills are 5 points better than Washington on a neutral field? Didn't the Bills just lose to the Eagles for no particular reason? What am I missing? Why do people think the Bills are really good? Are they enamored with Tyrod Taylor? I don't really get it. Washington needs this game, with the Giants playing Carolina and Philly playing Arizona, to move ahead in the division. Kirk Cousins is playing some very good football as of late, and the Washington defense is pretty nice.

Washington 27, Buffalo 24.


NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Tennessee, 1:00 ET.

The Patriots are a completely different team when Gronkowski plays. You could see it last week against the Texans; he opened up the field for the running game, for Amendola, and for LaFell. Even though he played fewer snaps than usual, you could see the impact he has on the game, the way he makes so many things possible for the Pats, and that's why it's so hard as a Pats fan to watch these safeties go after his knees each week. For now he's back, so I'm taking the Pats.

New England 31, Tennessee 17.


Carolina (-5) over NY GIANTS, 1:00 ET.

I wanted to pick the Giants for this game. As we all know, the Giants have a history of ruining streaks and undefeated seasons (sigh), and they always elevate their game against good teams. I expect nothing less than a fantastic game fro these two teams. But I'm not picking against Carolina until they prove to me that they can lose. Cam Newton has made it a legitimate battle for MVP with Tom Brady, and he's playing at a level we always wanted to see from him. I have to roll with Carolina.

Carolina 28, New York 27.


SEATTLE (-14.5) over Cleveland, 4:05 ET.

Seattle is coming on strong in recent weeks, which is about the least surprising development as we transition to the end of the season. I'll take them at home over Cleveland.

Seattle 35, Cleveland 14.


Green Bay (-4) over OAKLAND, 4:05 ET.

It was fun while it lasted with Oakland, and they should be a contender in the upcoming years if they can, but now they're running up on the Packers. Aaron Rodgers doesn't generally lose games in December, especially to the Raiders. That Packer defense has been playing well, I think they'll force some turnovers against the young David Carr.

Green Bay 31, Oakland 24.


Miami over SAN DIEGO (-2), 4:25 ET.

What a crappy game. FYI, the Chargers should never get points because they're playing at home, since they have about the opposite of a home field advantage. I don't know what's going to happen in this game, but I do know one thing; I wouldn't watch this game even if I did have NFL Sunday Ticket.

Miami 24, San Diego 20.


PITTSBURGH (-7) over Denver, 4:25 ET.

Pittsburgh needs this game to improve their spot in the standings, I think they'll play hungry, motivated. Look for a great game from Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant. I like Brock Osweiler, but I'm not sure he can take enough advantage of the Steelers atrocious secondary to keep up with Big Ben and the Steelers weapons.

Pittsburgh 31, Denver 27.


Cincinnati (-6.5) over SAN FRANSISCO, 4:25 ET.

This is a nice little match-up for the Bengals to beat up on San Fran before taking on Denver in a huge game next week. This could be a nice tune-up for AJ McCarron to gain some confidence in case he has to start that Denver game in place of Andy Dalton. This one's pretty much a foregone conclusion.

Cincinnati 35, San Fransisco 13.


Arizona (-4) over PHILADELPHIA, 8:30 ET.

Arizona and Seattle are the only teams in the NFC that I think could beat the Panthers. That's high praise. The Cardinals are really good. Carson Palmer is operating at the same level as Brady, Newton, and Russell right now, taking advantage of his many weapons. The defense is just as good as it was last year, maybe even better. Meanwhile, I'm starting to come around on the Eagles, but not enough to believe in them against this Cardinals team.

Arizona 35, Philadelphia 24.

Last Week: 9-6
Season: 64-36

Week 14 NFL Picks

Sorry for missing the last few weeks. I guess I'll just have to make these picks extra good to compensate. As always, the home team is in all caps and the time (ET) and line are given for reference.

Pittsburgh over CINCINATTI (-2.5), 1:00.

This will be the game where we definitively learn if the Bengals are legit or not. December, at home, divisional opponent, real stakes on the line... This is the game the Bengals usually lose. If they win, I will officially be behind them as a contender. But I'm going to roll with the Steelers, because they're desperate, and they didn't have all their weapons in that early season loss to the Bengals. This feels like a kitchen sink game for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh 35, Cincinatti 31.


Buffalo (PK) over PHILADELPHIA, 1:00.

The Bills aren't bad now that they have Tyrod Taylor back. THey could make a legit run at the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a huge win over my Patriots in Foxburo last week. Even though they beat my team, I'm still not convinced about Philly. That was one of the luckiest wins ever. Look out Eagles- here comes the LeSean McCoy revenge game.

Buffalo 28, Philadelphia 21.


CAROLINA (-8) over Atlanta, 1:00.

I'm done picking against Carolina. They're really good, and while I still don't think they're as good as their record indicates, I'm definitely picking them against the Falcons, who started 5-0, then proceeded to lose 6 of their next 7. They just aren't good enough to hold up against the Panthers balanced system.

Carolina 31, Atlanta 24.


San Fransisco over CLEVELAND (-1.5), 1:00.

What a crappy game. I'm picking the 49ers solely because they beat the Bears last week (who are better than everyone thinks) as Blaine Gabbert led two huge scoring drives at the end of the fourth quarter and the winner in overtime. I wouldn't bet on this game, but I have to pick it so...

San Fransisco 21, Cleveland 17.


Washington over CHICAGO (-3.5), 1:00.

This doesn't look very good after what I said about the Bears in the last pick, but there isn't much hope for the Bears to make the playoffs, so they don't really have much to fight for. Washington, meanwhile, is still in the hunt in the putrid NFC East as one of three teams leading the division at 5-7. They do have something to fight for, especially with the thought of the Giants' easy Monday night match-up with the Dolphins. This might be a must-win for the Washington professional football team.

Washington 24, Chicago 21.


Detroit (-3) over ST. LOUIS, 1:00.

Detroit has had 10 days to bounce back from that horrifying loss to the Packers that ended with an Aaaron Rodgers successful Hail Mary as time ran out. I think they'll look more like the Lions from the first half of that game as well as the Thanksgiving shellacking of the Eagles. The Rams ave given up. Their defense isn't the same as it was earlier in the season, and they have no way of throwing the ball because of the QB situation.

Detroit 31, St. Louis 21.


KANSAS CITY (-11) over San Diego, 1:00.

The Chiefs are on an absolute roll right now. They've won their last six games, a span in which they haven't allowed over 22 points. They're also finding ways to move the ball without Jamaal Charles in the backfield. I say the roll will continue against the disappointing Chargers.

Kansas City 35, San Diego 24.


TAMPA BAY (-5) over New Orleans, 1:00.

The Bucs aren't bad. After some unsurprising turnover issues early in the season, Jameis Winston has been awfully good, and the Bucaneers can move the ball with Doug Martin on the ground as well. That Saints defense won't be able to hold up against Tampa Bay's playmakers for an entire game.

Tampa Bay 28, New Orleans 24.


JACKSONVILLE (-2) over Indianapolis, 1:00.

It's all fun and games having a 40-year-old quarterback who seems to be doing well. But now we're at the time of year where you're a little more sore, a little more banged up. I think Matt Hasselbeck is feeling the effects.  don't think he can outgun a Jaguars offense that can explode at any time, especially against this Colts defense. If he tries to put the team on his back, he'll probably have a few horrendous turnovers. If he doesn't, his running game isn't good enough to beat even the Jaguars defense anyway. I got the Jags.

Jacksonville 31, Indianapolis 24.


NY JETS (-7.5) over Tennessee, 1:00.

The Jets are still in the running for a playoff spot. They get Darrelle Revis back today, who I'm certain will scare the crap out of Marcus Mariota. The Jets' running game can pound away at the Titans' defense, opening up holes for Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to make plays outside. The Jets are just a better team.

New York 27, Tennessee 20.


Seattle (-11) over BALTIMORE, 1:00.

Well, Jimmy Clausen played the Seahawks earlier this year as a member of the Bears. He got shut out. Jimmy Clausen is starting for the Ravens. I don't like this for Jimmy Clausen, and I dont like that the Seahawks look like the Seahawks again.

Seattle 35, Baltimore 14.


DENVER (-6) over Oakland, 4:05.

Brock Osweiler (currently) is a lot better than Peyton Manning. Yeah, his stats aren't that impressive, but he avoids the crushing turnovers Manning was prone to, and he can actually keep the defense honest with the occasional long pass. And Denver defense is as strong as ever.

Denver 28, Oakland 20.


GREEN BAY (-6.5) over Dallas, 4:25.

That Hail Mary could only happen for Aaron Rodgers. Unbelievable. Now they have the dismal Cowboys at home, who somehow managed to eke out a win against Washington on Monday, even without Tony Romo. I just don't see the Packers losing this one. The Cowboys can't score.

Green Bay 27, Dallas 17.

New England (-5) over Houston, 8:30.

Okay, it's time for my boys to cut the crap. We got screwed by Goodell and the refs in Denver, and then the special teams uncharacteristically killed us against the Eagles. The Patriots aren't playing well right now, and Brady is down a few weapons. However, Gronk is going to play tonight, and hopefully that will open up the field for Brady. The Pats never lose three in a row. That's what I keep telling myself.

New England 28, Houston 21.

Last Week: 0-3 (Week 12, Thanksgiving)
Season: 55-30.

Week 12 NFL Picks: Thanksgiving Edition

Thanksgiving might be my favorite holiday of the year. Sure, you don't get presents or candy, but the last few years my family have visited my brother at the University of Michigan for Thanksgiving. He's in the band, and it would be hard for him to get back for the huge Ohio State game that always follows Thanksgiving on Saturday. Anyway, it's become one of my favorite traditions to come and visit here and watch NFL games in a guest house with my family, not to mention we've gone to the Ohio State game when it's been here. I know a lot of people have a similar fondness for this holiday, and it's to those people that I dedicate these latest picks. As always, the home team is in all caps and the line and time of the game are given for reference.

Philadelphia (-2.5) over DETROIT, 12:30 ET.

I think people are finally starting to figure out that the Eagles aren't that good. -2.5 is a good line for them here against the lowly Lions. I'm looking for the Eagles defense to rebound from a rough game last week to put pressure on Matt Stafford and force some typical Stafford turnovers.
What people seem to forget is that it's really hard to be a one-dimensional offense in the NFL, and the Lions are about as one-dimensional as anyone. They hardly ever run the ball, and that puts an enormous amount of pressure on Stafford to make every play and big plays for the Lions, and when you have the gunslinger's mentality that Stafford has, it's going to lead to turnovers. The Lions need to make finding a running game their main goal this offseason, but for now, the Eagles will be able to key in on Stafford.
As for the Eagles offense, Mark Sanchez appeared to be an upgrade over Sam Bradford last week until he, along with everyone else, remembered that he's Mark Sanchez and ended up with three interceptions. He appears to be getting the start again this week, so we'll have to see if he can step his game up in prime time like he did on Thanksgiving last year in destroying the Cowboys. All I know is, I don't like picking games where I don't trust either team, and this is a prime example of that kind of game.

Philadelphia 23, Detroit 21.


DALLAS (-1) over Carolina, 4:30 ET.

I don't know if there's any legitimate reason to pick the Cowboys, on paper anyway. What the Cowboys do well offensively (running game, big plays to Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, security blanket for Tony Romo over the middle in tight end Jason Witten) the Panthers match up well with (push up front, great, physical secondary, Luke Kuechly patrolling the middle of the field). The same is true for the other side of the ball; the Cowboys can't stop the run, the Panthers excel at running the ball, and they have a big,strong, mobile QB to escape the Dallas pass rush and make plays down the field.
So there isn't much rhyme or reason to this pick, I'm really just basing my decision on the fact that I don't think Carolina is good enough to go undefeated for this long. I really like them, just not that much. Also, the Cowboys are hungry, needing a win this week to stay in the race for the NFC East. Usually when a team is hungrier, you can bet on that team to win. It's all going to come down to whether or not the Panthers can brainwash themselves into believing that they're the hungrier team. If that happens all bets are off. But for now, I'm rolling with the team that has its QB back and needs a win this week.

Dallas 24, Carolina 23.


GREEN BAY (-8) over Chicago, 8:30 ET

The Packers seemed to fix their problems last week when they killed the Vikings on the road. Their defense was swarming, recording six sacks, not giving Adrian Peterson any room, immediately tackling anyone before they got down field. I kind of figured they would bounce back after their three game skid, and even though the offense still struggled at times to generate separation, I don't see it changing this week.
The Bears have been underrated this year. They have had some bad luck against good teams; they could easily have a winning record. I just don't see them winning this game, not at Lambeau, not in prime time, not on Thanksgiving. There's always the potential for a Jay Cutler interception or two turning this game ugly; he just can't figure out the Packers. I dob't know if it will happen, it's just always hovering on the horizon.
P.S. Here's an interesting aspect to this game: What if the Bears come out and score, take it to the Packers a little bit and go into halftime tied or (gasp) maybe even leading? What if Green Bay's receivers continue to struggle to get open and Rodgers gets a little frustrated? And then the Packers have their ceremony retiring Favre's number and he looks a little too pleased with himself or makes a few snarky remarks about a comeback? I think it's very possible we see a pissed-off Rodgers account for seven touchdowns in the second half if things play out that way. We'll see.

Green Bay 31, Chicago 21.

NFL Week 11 Picks

We're starting to come down the stretch of this NFL season. Playoff spots are at stake and there are a lot of important games this week. As usual, home team is in all caps and the time and line are given for reference.

CAROLINA (-7) over Washington, 1:00 ET.

Man, the Panthers have had an easy schedule while going undefeated. The only team now over .500 they played was the Packers, who they caught in the middle of this three-game swoon. I think Washington will put up a good fight, but I can't see that Redskins offense getting enough points to beat Carolina.

Carolina 24, Washington 21.


Oakland over DETROIT (-1), 1:00 ET.

This line is just stupid. Just because the Lions barely squeezed out a win against the struggling Packers doesn't mean they should ever be favored. If I were a betting man, I would definitely take the Raiders. Thankfully, I'm not, but I'm still taking the Raiders to beat Detroit. The Raiders have a good offense, they can throw the ball. The Lions offense couldn't put up more than 18 against the crappy Green Bay defense.

Oakland 31, Detroit 20.


Dallas (-1.5) over MIAMI, 1:00 ET.

I'm breaking a rule here; If you're going to pick a team that is favored on the road, they better be really good. I have no idea if the Cowboys can regain their form from last year, when they should have been in the NFC Championship Game. They've lost the seven games that Tony Romo didn't start this season. Even though a lot of those were in heartbreaking fashion at the end of the game, should a team really be that reliant on a quarterback? Today will answer some of our questions about the Cowboys. If they lose, their season is over. If they win, they still have to win a bunch more. For now, I'm betting on a regression to the mean as far as their luck is considered.

Dallas 28, Miami 24.


ATLANTA (-3.5) over Indianapolis, 1:00 ET.

Both of these teams have been lackluster recently. The Falcons started off 5-0, then proceeded to lose three of their next four. Indy is 4-5 after many picked them to go to the Super Bow in the preseason. The Colts don't have Andrew Luck, and while backup Matt Hasselbeck has been better than Luck this year, he isn't the same big play threat as Luck, which should allow the Falcons to stack the box. I believe the Falcons will get back on track at home.

Atlanta 28, Indianapolis 21.


St. Louis over BALTIMORE (-3), 1:00 ET.

Um... Why is Baltimore favored? I realize the Rams are switching QB's, but can Case Keenum be any worse than Nick Foles? (By the way, how overall crappy was that Sam Bradford-for-Foles trade?) Todd Gurley hs estabished himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL as a rookie. The Rams defense is as nasty as ever. I don't get why the Ravens are favored by three, even at home.

St. Louis 24, Baltimore 14.


New York Jets (-4) over HOUSTON, 1:00 ET.

I'll have to admit I was wrong about Houston being the worst team in the NFL; I shouldn't have underestimated how inept the Browns can be. However, I don't think they have what it takes to beat this Jets defense, not with Arian Foster gone.

New York 24, Houston 20.


PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET.

Anybody who has read any of these picks columns or knows me at all knows I don't trust the Eagles. If this were a gambling column, I would definitely pick the Bucs. They can run the ball, Jameis Winston has settled in, and their defense can be good at times, and I don't trust the Eagles to win by a touchdown. How could I after they collapsed against the Dolphins last week? I don't know if Mark Sanchez is an upgrade over Sam Bradford. However, this is a column about who will win, and  think the Eagles underrated defense will make enough plays to win.

Philadelphia 21, Tampa Bay 20.


CHICAGO over Denver (-2), 1:00 ET.

Yeah, it's a pretty sure bet that this will backfire on me. I don't like the idea of Jay Cutler, due for a turnover or two this season, against the league's best defense. But Brock Osweiler making his first start on the road against a pretty good defense with no running game to help him out? I at least trust Cutler more than that guy.

Chicago 23, Denver 20.


Kansas City (-3) over SAN DIEGO, 4:05 ET.

San Diego actually has a negative home field advantage. More fans show up for the other team than for the Chargers. The Chiefs are coming off a big win over Denver and should be able to take away the Chargers strength in their passing game after picking off Peyton Manning 4 times and holding him to 5-20 for just 35 yards.

Kansas City 30, San Diego 21.


SEATTLE (-14) over San Fransisco, 4:25 ET.

It seems as though every time the Seahawks appear to be down and out, they get to play the abhorrent 49ers the next week. This time they get to play back-up QB Blaine Gabbert at home. At some point Seattle is going to have to beat someone besides the 49ers, but that isn't a problem this week.

Seattle 35, San Fransisco 10.


Green Bay (PK) over MINNESOTA, 4:25 ET.

I'm going to write a separate game summary piece specifically for this game, for three reasons:
1) I live in Minnesota and though I'm not a Vikings fan, the electricity around this game here is palpable. People are so ready to stick it in Green Bay's face.
2) Despite the fact that I'm not a Vikings fan, I do have a specific distaste for Aaron Rodgers because he's basically perfect and people try to place him above my favorite player ever, Tom Brady.
3) It's going to be a great game. The Packers are coming off three straight losses and have something to prove. Even though they lead the division, nobody believes in the Vikings, and the fans here are sick of it.
So that's what makes me excited to watch this game. Ultimately, it's hard to bet against Rodgers against the NFC North. However, he did just lose to the Lions at home last week. I don't know. What I do know is I can't wait.

Green Bay 28, Minnesota 27.



ARIZONA (-4.5) over Cincinnati, 8:30 ET.

I think this is going to be another really good game. The Cardinals are playing on Sunday night for the second straight week and the Bengals are coming off their first loss of the season, a shocker against the Texans. The Houston defense exposed some flaws in the Bengals offense that I think the Arizona defense will key in on. I think this game could come down to the final possession, and I trust Carson Palmer at home a little more than Andy Dalton on the road.

Arizona 31, Cincinnati 28.


Last Week: 7-5
Season: 55-27

Week 10 NFL Picks

I'm not excited for this week in the NFL. How could I be when my Patriots are going up against the arch-rival Giants? I'm a nervous wreck. The Giants live to end Patriot undefeated seasons, as we all know. I'm going to take my mind off it by picking these games. The home team is in all caps and the time and line are given for reference. (Sorry for missing last week, by the way)

GREEN BAY (-10.5) over Detroit, 1:00 ET.

Here's all the reasons the Packers would win this game:

• Pissed off after two road losses in which they didn't perform as well as they could:
• Aaron Rodgers at home.
• Detroit is vulnerable in every respect on defense.
• Detroit has nothing going on offense and are turnover-prone, and the Packers defense thrives on turnovers.
• Aaron Rodgers at home.
• A bunch of drunk Wisconsians wearing cheese on their head.
• Aaron Rodgers at home.

And here's all the reasons Detroit would win:

• Literally none.

Green Bay 31, Detroit 14.

TAMPA BAY over Dallas (-1), 1:00 ET.

I just don't think it's Dallas' year. They've been destroyed by injuries the likes of which I can't remember in football. Dallas proved vulnerable against the run against the Eagles last week, and Doug Martin, although struggling lately, could show out. Plus, the Dallas defense doesn't force the thing that Jameis Winston is bad at, which is forcing turnovers. As for the other side of the ball, It's just going to be tough for the Cowboys until Tony Romo returns.

Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 20.

Carolina (-4) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

I don't think Carolina is going to run away with this like some people might think. Tennessee is good when Marcus Mariota is playing, and he's back from injury. I envision a low-scorer, which favors the Panthers.

Carolina 20, Tennessee 14.

ST. LOUIS (-7) over Chicago, 1:00 ET.

I like the Bears more than most, but not more than I like the Rams. They have a really good defense and a young stud running in Todd Gurley. After heroically pulling out a late win last week in San Diego and having a few talking heads over at ESPN talk about how he's been underrated, I'm afraid this is the week Jay Cutler has four turnovers and gets written off for the rest of the season, even though he could play well the rest of the year.

St. Louis 27, Chicago 20.

New Orleans (PK) over WASHINGTON, 1:00 ET.

I don't want to go near this game, because anything could happen. Drew Brees could pick the Washington defense apart, or Washington could grind out a tough W. I really don't know, but I have to make a pick, so:

New Orleans 28, Washington 24.

PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Miami, 1:00 ET.

I don't like Philadelphia. I still don't believe in them as a playoff team. But I sure like them a lot more than the Dolphins without Cameron Wake. Sam Bradford struggles against pressure, but without Wake wreaking havoc on the line, Bradford can just dink and dunk the Eagles to a win.

Philladelphia 28, Miami 21.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5), over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Yeah, Ben Rothlisberger is out. Yeah, Le'veon Bell is out for the year. They're still playing the Cleveland Browns, who always find a way to lose.

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20.

Jacksonville over BALTIMORE (-5.5), 1:00 ET.

In football gambling, the home team is supposed to get three points for home field advantage. So the Ravens are three points better than the Jaguars on a neutral field? No way. The Ravens are crappy, and you can't tell me otherwise.

Jacksonville 27, Baltimore 23.

Minnesota over OAKLAND (-3), 4:05 ET.

Both of these teams have been surprisingly good this year, and I like both. Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out momentarily by a dirty hit against the Rams last week, and it is worrying that he's back one week later, but their offense is based on Adrian Paterson anyway. I think that the Vikings have a really good defense and will make the big play needed to stop the high-powered Raiders.

Minnesota 26, Oakland 24.

DENVER (-3.5) over Kansas City, 4:25 ET.

Denver is only getting 3.5 points at home? Meaning they're supposedly half a point better than the Chiefs in a neutral setting? With that defense at home against the Chiefs without Jamaal Charles?

I think people are overreacting to Denver losing at Indianapolis. Listen; it's really hard to go undefeated. Denver was bound to lose at some point. That doesn't mean they'll lose to the Chiefs.

Denver 24, Kansas City 17.

New England (-7) over NY GIANTS, 4:25 ET.

My stomach is queasy about this one. I won't be mad if the Patriots don't go undefeated; that's too much to ask. But I definitely don't want it to end against the hated Giants. The Giants have the playmakers to hurt the Patriots pass defense, and the Patriots haven't been strong where Eli Manning is historically weak (turnovers). Meanwhile, the Giants have Jason Pierre-Paul back, who looked good last week, against the makeshift Pats offensive line. We all know that the formula for beating the Patriots is to get pressure on Brady up the middle by winning one-on-one battles so the secondary can sit back and not blitz. That's the formula the Giants used to take down the Patriots in two Super Bowls. I still think the Pats will win, but I'm not confident.

New England 28, New York 27.

Arizona over SEATTLE (-3), 8:30 ET.

Seattle just isn't as good this year. There's something weird going on with the chemistry in that locker room. I just think the Cardinals are flat out better than the Seahawks. Carson Palmer has been really good and has a ton of weapons. Chris Johnson has been a revelation. And the defense is just as effective as it was last year.

Arizona 27, Seattle 24. 

Last week (Week 8): 7-6
Season: 48-22.

Week 8 Monday Night Pick

This week's Monday night game is the 3-4 Indianapolis Colts at the 6-0 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are coming off a gritty win last week against the Eagles in which they withstood three interceptions from Cam Newton to win 27-16 against a lackluster Eagles team. Meanwhile, the Colts lost a horrendous game last week to the Saints who are belatedly coming on as Drew Brees climbed out of his coffin to throw seven touchdowns this week. In losing to the Saints, the Colts were able to put up only 21 points, even though Eli Manning just threw six touchdowns on them yesterday. The line and time of the game are given for reference, and the home team is in all caps.

CAROLINA (-5.5) over Indianapolis, 8:30 ET.

I don't like this game. Carolina isn't as good as their record indicates, but the Colts actually looked better when Matt Hasselbeck was running the offense instead of Andrew Luck, which isn't as surprising as it was now that news has come out that Andrew Luck has been playing with broken ribs and the Colts (who just wanted a level playing field during the whole Deflategate mess but apparently the level playing field doesn't apply to them) didn't report it. The defense hasn't been able to stop anyone on the ground or in the air, they haven't been able to run the ball, and Andrew Luck has one of the league's worst QBR's, quarterback ratings, turnover rates, whatever you want. I've been waiting patiently for Luck to turn it around, thinking that people were overreacting to his early season swoon. Now? It's time for Luck to turn it around. ASAP. It's time for Luck to prove that he's still one of the league's premier signal-callers, and make a statement against a very good Carolina defense. And I think he will play a little better than he has been.

But it won't be enough. The Panthers have the kind of downhill backs that have ripped up the Colts in the past (see Blount, Lagarrette) in Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert, as well as the most physically imposing QB the league has ever seen in Cam Newton to run right at them, too. The Colts can't guard tight ends; Greg Olsen is playing like a top-five tight end and is the first option through the air for the Panthers. It's just not a very good match-up for the Colts. They don't have the offensive line to give Luck the kind of time to find his considerable weapons against the Carolina secondary, and that leads to a lack of a running game. The Colts don't have the synchronization on offense to win this game.

Now, this is more about what's wrong with the Colts than what I like about the Panthers. I don't think Carolina is as good as their record indicates, and I think they will have at least three losses by the end of the year. They will lose to a fuming Packers team coming off a god-awful game against the Broncos last night. They could lose to the Cowboys (returning Tony Romo), Saints, Falcons, or Giants. But for now, against the Colts who can only be described as struggling? They'll do enough to win tonight.

Carolina 27, Indianapolis 21