NFL Divisional Round Picks

Last week, when I made my Wild Card Round picks, I only felt confident about one pick; Steelers over Ravens. Of course, that was the one pick I got wrong, in a weekend of wonky games that almost seemed designed to mess with my head. I feel much more confident about this weekend's games. What does that mean? I'll probably go 1-4 this weekend. Remember, all times are Central, and the home team is in caps. Without further adieu...

Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND                                                     Saturday, 1/10, 3:35 PM

As a Patriots fan, it pains me to do this. Last week's outcome could not have been worse. I would much rather be playing Indianapolis or Cincinnati at home, two teams we have already destroyed this year and who wouldn't have any confidence going into New England. What I don't want, is a Ravens team coming off shellacking their rivals in Pittsburgh , brimming with confidence (or arrogance in the case of the Ravens). I just really don't like the Ravens. They've beaten us before in the playoffs, and they haven't been shy about their dislike for us. They're also liable to have some sketchy punks on their roster (they've employed a wife beater, a possible murderer, and (shudder of disdain) Terrell Suggs). I really dislike Suggs. He's always been a loudmouth who hated the Patriots for some reason. I just never took much of a liking to him. Needless to say, the Ravens are in my head.

It's not the same team as those Baltimore squads that gave New England trouble in the past, but John Harbaugh knows how to beat the Pats. The formula for beating New England is to get pressure on Brady, hit everyone as hard as you can, and force turnovers, and the Ravens can definitely do that with Haloti Ngata, Elvis Dumervil, and Suggs taking it to a Patriots offensive line that has looked shaky at times. Joe Flacco is in his crazily effective playoff mode, and he could change the game with just one deep attempt, whether it be a completion or a pass interference penalty (I'm looking at you Brandon Browner). Baltimore can run the ball and get big plays in the special teams from Jacoby Jones. They have a bunch of big game players. The home favorites never all cover, and this is a better bet than Dallas at Green Bay. I really don't like it but...

Ravens 24,  Patriots 21

SEATTLE (-11) over Carolina                                                              Saturday, 1/10, 7:15 PM

There's not much to say here. This is the easiest game to pick. Seattle is not messing around. They've won nine of their last ten, they only lost one game at home all season (to Dallas who unbelievably went 8-0 on the road), and they will not lose to the team that only made it into the playoffs because their division sucked, and only won a playoff game because they faced a historically bad, third-string quarterback who didn't even have his number one running back. Cam Newton didn't really look good against an Arizona defense that is good, but lost its will once they realized that if they were down ten, the game was over. Newton was inaccurate and seemed to sulk at times. That vaunted Seahawks defense is licking their lips in anticipation for this. Carolina never really pulled away even while the Cardinals gained the fewest yards in NFL Playoff history! And they're supposed to win at Seattle? I just don't thinkthe Seahawks screw around with this one. They've been playing with such a swagger and confidence lately, and I think it's fair to say their early struggles are behind them.

Seattle 33, Carolina 10

GREEN BAY (-5.5) over Dallas                                                                   Sunday, 1/11, 1:00 PM

The game I'm most excited about. It's the Ice Bowl II. Two classic franchises who have battled before. You don't know how badly I wanted to pick Dallas in this game. Living in Minnesota and having my dad and brother as Bears fans, I've developed a healthy dislike for the Packers, especially the admitted football perfection that is Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is, as previously stated, undefeated on the road this year. Ndamukong Suh stepped on Rodgers' leg in Week 17, taking him out of the game and bringing this week's news that Rodgers had a slight tear in his calf muscle. Dallas' running attack with Demarco Murray behind that stellar offensive line can shred that weak Packers defense and keep Rodgers off the field. The frigid conditions could take the fans out of the game and reduce the home field advantage that Green Bay usually enjoys when the Cheeseheads come out in full force. That same cold could also harden the field to the degree that any good hit Dallas lays on Rodgers could be the one that takes him out of the game. Dallas got the playoff monkey off their backs with last week's win against Detroit.

All of these are reasons why I could take Dallas. But I won't.

The reason I'm taking the Packers is basically just Aaron Rodgers. And the weapons he has around him, I guess. Rodgers has just been otherworldly at Lambeau, having not thrown a pick there for a solid two years. He does have the right weapons around him, with Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy among the playmakers Rodgers has to work with. The Packers' offense is too much for this questionable Dallas defense to handle. That Cowboys defense looked better than it is in the second half against a secretly shaky Lions offense last week that didn't have the classic Calvin Johnson we all know and love, and I think Matthew Stafford is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the league. Rodgers will tear through Dallas, even on a busted wheel. I'm anticipating a high scoring game, I just don't think the Cowboys can get the stops when it matters.

Green Bay 38, Dallas 33

DENVER (-7) over Indianapolis                                                             Sunday, 1/11, 3:40 PM

It's just like Denver to deteriorate the last half of the season, get the two seed, and still pull the easier game after the bye over the one seed Patriots. As I said earlier, I'd much rather have Indianapolis traveling to Foxboro than the Ravens. The Colts haven't beaten anyone all that good this year. Their best win was either their shut out of Cincinnati or a seven point win over suddenly scary Baltimore in Week 5. Other than that they were destroyed by Denver, Philly, Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas (you know, five of the best seven teams they played) by a combined point differential of 84 points! Are you kidding me? These guys cant play with the good teams! And no matter how bad they may have looked recently, Denver is still really freaking good.

Denver's new found rushing game could exploit a glaring deficiency in the Colts' defense. They can't stop The run when they have to respect the pass of the other team, which they didn't need to last week against the Red Rocket minus the services of AJ Green. Even though the Colts have Pro Bowl cornerback Vontae Davis, the reason Denver is so scary is that they have so many weapons. Between Demaryius and Julius Thomas, running back C.J. Anderson, and Emmanuel Sanders, there's too many weapons for Indianapolis to handle. I can't trust the Colts. They looked better than they are last week against the perpetually disappointing playoff version of the Bengals. Don't get drawn in by their success and Denver's noted struggles.

Denver 31, Indianapolis 20

Last Week: 3-1





        

NFL Playoffs Wild Card Picks

     In this column I'll be previewing the NFL Wild Card round playoff games. I'll make my picks for the games and I'll post the odds for the game from Vegas. The home team is in caps. If you don't know how Vegas odds work, the - sign is how many points the favored team should win by, the + sign is how many points the underdog should lose by. I will also list the day, date, and time of the game, all times are central. After my explanations, I'll give my expected score. Let's go.

CAROLINA (-6.5) over Arizona                                                                      Saturday, 1/3, 3:35 PM

     This one comes down to the ultimate in picking playoff games; don't take a shaky quarterback, especially on the road against a Carolina defense that is quietly rounding into the poor man's version of the 2013 Panthers. Seriously, I was looking for any reason to pick the Cardinals in this game. They earned the right to be in the playoffs, winning nine of their first ten games before losing their QB Carson Palmer in their Week 10 win over the St. Louis Rams. That's when their dreams of playing at home in the Super Bowl effectively vanished. With Palmer, they looked like the best team in the NFC, but it's hard to look all that great with a backup QB. It only got worse when their backup QB Drew Stanton was injured in Arizona's Week 15 victory over the Rams. That's when third-stringer Ryan Lindley entered the fold. Lindley entered next week's game against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks defense with 181 pass attempts without a touchdown, the most in NFL history, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
     I honestly hope I'm wrong, because it's so unfortunate that a season that started with home Super Bowl aspirations could end without a playoff victory, all because of terrible injury luck. Even if Stanton, the back-up, were starting, I would pick the Cardinals. But the fact that Arizona has to start the historically bad Lindley on the road is just too much to overcome.
     Another reason this annoys me is that Carolina didn't deserve to make it into the playoffs. They only made it because they play in a terrible division, the NFC South. They have a losing record on the season. After they won on October fifth at home against Chicago, they tied the Bengals the next week at Cincinnati, and then lost every game they played until a December 7th win at New Orleans (they had a Week 12 bye). They didn't win for nearly two months! And this team deserves to be in the playoffs?
     However, none of this matters now. They destroyed Atlanta last week to win the division and secure a playoff game at home. And however unfair it may seem for these two teams to be in the positions they are, I'll take Cam Newton, national champion in college who played in the playoffs last year, over Ryan Lindley any day.

Carolina 13, Arizona 6


PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore                                                                  Saturday, 1/3, 7:15 PM

     As a Patriots fan, I'm abjectly terrified of the Steelers, so I'm hoping I'm wrong on this one, too. The one thing they're bad at (defending the deep pass) is the one thing the Pats have struggled with on offense this year, as Tom Brady is slowly moving into the Peyton Manning zone in terms of losing the ability to throw powerfully and accurately downfield. And sure, Joe Flacco is one of the quarterbacks you would pick out to exploit that deep pass deficiency for Pittsburgh's defense. But I can't pick the Ravens after their seeming attempt to throw away a playoff spot recently. Here's how their last five games have gone:
Week 13: Chargers 34 RAVENS 33
Baltimore throws away a 30-20 lead with 6:13 remaining at home to a very beatable Chargers team. remember, the Ravens were fighting San Diego for a playoff spot until Week 17, so they should have gotten up for this game.
Week 14: Ravens 28 DOLPHINS 13
Not exactly a great win. The Dolphins proved themselves to be mediocre this year, and it's not like the Ravens dominated the game.
Week 15: Jaguars 12 RAVENS 20
Same as the Dolphins game, only Jacksonville was worse than Miami this year, the win was even less dominating, and Baltimore was at home. Not impressive.
Week 16: Ravens 13 TEXANS 25
This is where I really lost confidence in Baltimore. Flacco went 21 of 50 for 195 yards (a completion percentage of 42% and YPA of 3.9) with three INT's, two TD's, and a QBR of 3.2. 'Nuff said.
Week 17: BROWNS 10 Ravens 20
 In a must-win game against the rival Browns, a team that lost its final five games of the season and, amid the chaos of the Johnny Manziel debacle, had to start CONNOR FREAKING SHAW, the Ravens never really showed that they were a playoff team. They never pulled away from a reeling Browns squad in a game they had to have to win? How could you back that team?

     And please don't forget about these few things going Pittsburgh's way:
Big Ben in a big game, the Ravens having beaten just one team all season with a record above .500, Antonio Brown, Flacco's recent performance, the karmic ramifications of how the Ray Rice ordeal went down, Antonio Brown, all of Pittsburgh's weapons at receiver, Pittsburgh's ability to rush the passer, and Antonio Brown kick/punt returns. It hurts for the Steelers to lose Le'veon Bell, but that just serves to make the game closer in what should be a classic Steelers-Ravens chippy slugfest.

Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 24

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over Cincinnati                                                              Sunday, 1/4, 1:00 PM

     I really don't like this one. I don't trust either of these teams. It comes down to a few factors: Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano over Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis in a big game, Indianapolis getting home field, and AJ Green probably not playing. That last one is key. When Green missed the Bengals' game against the Colts in Week 7, Indy shut Cincy out en route to a 27-0 thrashing. With no deep threat, the Colts were able to stack the box and limit Cincy's output on the ground. I'm betting on the same thing happening on Sunday. A few things that worry me:
1) The Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard running attack for Cincy destroying the weak run defense of the Colts. Because of the aforementioned absence of AJ Green, I hope the Colts can overcome this by stacking the box against the run and forcing Dalton into typical Dalton-in-a-big-game mistakes.
2) Luck quietly has a lot of turnovers this year, and the Bengals' secondary is excellent. Watch out for that.
3) Indianapolis might have the worst running backs in the league. After Ahmad Bradshaw's injury, they've been playing Trent Richardson at RB. TRENT RICHARDSON!!! Very dangerous territory.

     But, like I said, I'll take Andrew the Giant and Chuck Strong over the Red Rocket and Marvin Lewis (sorry, he's too bland for anyone to have given him a nickname) in a playoff game.

Indianapolis 24, Cincinnati 21

DALLAS (-6.5) over Detroit

I wavered on this one a lot. Let's consider the cases for both teams.
DETROIT
 -Got Ndamukong Suh for the game after the league repealed Suh's suspension for stepping on Aaron Rodgers (to me, on purpose). Suh has been their best player this year and the key cog in Detroit's excellent run defense, key in stopping the Cowboys' Demarco Murray behind the league's best offensive line.
-Tony Romo and Jason Garrett in a big/playoff game. So far these two have done well in big games this season, but the monster could rear it's ugly head at any point.
-Calvin Johnson might just be getting healthy just in time to rip apart a sub-par Dallas defense.
-Dallas' biggest strength (running the ball) is what the Lion's stop best.
-The Cowboys haven't had much of a home field advantage this year, going just 4-4 at Jerry World.
-The possibility that Suh knocks Murray out of the game by stomping on his previously broken left hand.
-Wouldn't it be the most Cowboys-esque thing if Dallas lost in the first round once they finally made it above 8-8 and into the playoffs?

DALLAS
-Demarco Murray got the single season rushing record in Cowboys history. Remember how Emmitt Smith was once on the Cowboys? Murray is really freaking good, especially behind that offensive line.
-Matthew Stafford and Jim Caldwell in a road playoff game. Little less than trustworthy.
-Sure, Detroit's defense has looked great, but usually only when they're playing bad teams. The only two times they played really good offensive teams, they gave up at least 30 (Week 12, lost 34-9 to the Pats, Week 17, lost 30-20 to the Packers). I'm not counting that first Packers game because Green Bay wasn't what they are now.
-Stafford is 3-31 all time against teams that finished the year with winning records, and he's never beaten an above-.500 team on the road. Not so impressive.
-Along with Murray's broken record, Dez Bryant passed Terrell Owens for most TD catches in a season by a Cowboy. Dez is also really freaking good.
-Romo's 114.4 passer rating for the season is sixth best in NFL history. The running game really allowed him to play well this year, since he wasn't having to throw so much in every game. He's like Jay Cutler in that if you make them throw the ball a lot, of course they'll have turnovers. You just have to call the game right, leaning more on the running game to set up easy throws.
-Dallas went 4-0 in December, contradicting recent history.
-With Murray, Dez, that offensive line, Terrance Williams, the surprising Cole Beasley in the slot and veteran TE Jason Witten, Romo has a ton of weapons to work with.
- At times, Detroit's offense has looked totally stagnant this year. Stafford makes a lot of mistakes, Megatron has not looked himself with all the injuries, and their running game is non-descript. Lucky for this below average Dallas defense.
-Jim Caldwell is the Lions' coach. This is not good for Detroit. Caldwell literally shows no emotion while he's out there, and the camera hardly ever finds him talking or moving. It's like the Lions send out a cardboard cut-out each Sunday.
-Everything is setting up for the Cowboys to go to Lambeau next week for The Ice Bowl II. If you can't get excited for that, I don't know what to tell you.

See how there are many more points in the case for Dallas? That's why I'm picking them.

Oh, and because they're playing the freaking Lions.

Dallas 28, Detroit 21