NFL Week 7 Picks

As usual, the time and line are given for reference. Home team in all caps.

Buffalo (-3.5) over Jacksonville, 9:30 AM ET.

This is another London game, which is always wonky and unpredictable, so I wouldn't bet on it. It feels like this Jacksonville offense needs to be taken down a peg, and the talented Bills defense has a lot of motivation after being criticized this week.
(Hold on...)
Wait, EJ Manuel is starting for the Bills in place of Tyrod Taylor? That makes it easy then.

Jacksonville over Buffalo (-3.5).

Jacksonville 23, Buffalo 17


ST. LOUIS (-6.5) over Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET.

I don't buy this Josh McCown resurgence. He looked good at times against the league's best defense last week in Denver, bt he wasn't all that good either. The Rams now have a really good running attack with Todd Gurley to tear up a Browns defense weak against the run.

St. Louis 27, Cleveland 20


Pittsburgh over KANSAS CITY (-3), 1:00 ET.

I don't know why Kansas City is ever favored anymore. With Landry Jones replacing Mike Vick at QB, the Steelers have someone who can actually throw the ball ten yards accurately, and KC hasn't done anything to prove to me that they should be favored.

Pittsburgh 27, Kansas City 21.


MIAMI (-4.5) over Houston, 1:00 ET.

Miami is playing a lot better since they fired head coach Joe Philbin. I just don't think they enjoyed playng for him. Houston is one of the worst three teams in the league, and won't be motivated after getting a win last week.

Mami 24, Houston 16.


NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over NY Jets, 1:00 ET.

This line is too high. New England is down to their third left tackle against the best second best defense in the league with a great ability to rush the passer. Plus, they have Darrelle Revis back, so Brady can't always rely on those quick passes to avoid pressure. I'm still picking the Pats to win, but the health issues are troubling.

New England 27, New York 24.


Minnesota (-1.5) over DETROIT, 1:00 ET.

This one is troubling for me. The Vikings have Adrian Peterson, a godd defense, and weapons on the outside, but this feels like a Bridgewater trap game. I still don't trust Teddy Two Gloves all that much. Meanwhile, the Lions got their first win of the season last week in overtime against the Bears. The Vikings are better than the Bears, so...

Minnesota 27, Detroit 23.


Atlanta (-6.5) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

Atlanta has had a long week to prepare for the Titans, will be motivated after a shellacking at the hands of the rival Saints, and on top of all that, Marcus Mariota won't play for the Titans.

Atlanta 34, Tennessee 20.


WASHINGTON (-3) over Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET.

This one is really troubling for me. I think Washington is pretty good, at last their defense is. But Doug Martin is on my fantasy team and I really need him to put up numbers against a Washington defense that struggled with the run in recent weeks. This all might come down to which quarterback, Jameis Winston or Kirk Cousins, throws more interceptions, and since Washington has the better defense, I'll roll with them.

Washington 26, Tampa Bay 20.


INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) over New Orleans, 1:00 ET.

Indy was able to get back into an offensive groove last week against a wounded Pats defense that's still better than the putrid New Orleans defense. The Saints got a big win last week and probably won't be very motivated.

Indianapolis 34, New Orleans 24.


Oakland over SAN DIEGO (-3.5), 4:05 ET.

Oakland is no longer the absolute worst team in the league every year. They have legitimate offensive weapons and I think they'll tear up that weak San Diego defense. Plus, the game is in San Diego, which actually might mean home field advantage for the Raiders. I mean, I can't really blame San Diegoans for not getting all hyped up over football when it's 70 degrees every day.

Oakland 31, San Diego 27.


Dallas over NY GIANTS (-3), 4:25 ET.

I saw some major problems with the Giants' offensive line against Philly on Monday, problems that Greg Hardy and the revamped Cowboys offensive line can exploit. Dallas will be letting the leash off of running back Christine Michael who should be freed up by the removal of Brandon Weeden from the starting quarterback role replaced by Matt Cassell. I like an upset here.

Dallas 24, New York 17.


CAROLINA (-3) over Philadelphia, 8:30 ET.

I've been saying it since the beginning of the season; Sam Bradford and the Eagles aren't very good. But Aidan, they just dismantled the Giants last week when you said the Giants would win. Congrats, the Eagles beat someone else in this putrid ivision. The Panthers, meanwhile, shrugged off questions about their schedule when they came back to beat the Seahawks on the road. I will give the Eagles this, their defense is pretty good, especially the front line. But Carolina has a good defense too, and a much more effective overall offense. That Eagles front seven almost made me pick them, but the Panthers, at home, which probably means three Sam Bradford turnovers, is too good to pass up.

Carolina 24, Philadelphia 17.

I'll post my Monday Night Pick separately, either tonight or tomorrow before the game.

Last Week: 9-5.
Season: 32-12

Week 6 NFL Picks

I'm sorry I couldn't get these picks out last weekend, I had so much work to do. I will do my very best to get them out every week even if each pick is very short. As always, the home team is in caps and the line and time are given for reference.

Denver (-4) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Peyton Manning is due for a five-interception game where he loses it all by himself and the sports media talks about it all week. I just don't think it's this week.

Denver 24, Cleveland 10


Cincinnati (-3) over BUFFALO, 1:00 ET

I would have picked Buffalo here if not for quarterback Tyrod Taylor going out with an injury. The Bengals are due for a loss and the Bills can play really well at home, but without Taylor, I don't see how the Bills get it done.

Cincinnati 28, Buffalo 16


MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Kansas City, 1:00 ET.

I was looking for any reason to pick the Chiefs besides the fact that they're underachieving and desperate for a win (which still might be enough). They just don't really have a talent advantage, not without Jamaal Charles. I'm not confident, but I'm picking the Vikings.

Minnesota 23, Kansas City 20


Houston over JACKSONVILLE (-2), 1:00 ET.

Houston has been the worst team in football this year, only beating the Buccaneers in Week 3, and Jacksonville's offense has looked nice run by Blake Bortles. However, I think a combination of the new feeling of confidence for the Jags, the return of Brian Hoyer as Houston's starting QB, and my sense of foreboding telling me a huge J.J. Watt game is coming will lead the Texans over the Jaguars.

Houston 20, Jacksonville 17


Chicago over DETROIT (-3.5), 1:00 ET.

Why is this line so high? I genuinely think the Bears are better than the Lions. Chicago has some nice defensive players, and Jay Cutler is running the offense much better than last year. I think the logic is that Detroit needs to win at some point, but I'm not sure this is the week after dealing with questions about Matthew Stafford getting benched last Sunday after throwing three interceptions.

Chicago 27, Detroit 24


NY JETS (-6.5) over Washington, 1:00 ET.

The line is too high, but since we're just picking the games, I'll still roll with the Jets. I was looking for any reason to pick against the Jets, but that defense is going to give a struggling Washington offense fits, and the offense should do just enough to win, even though Washington's defense has looked surprisingly good this year. That the Jets are coming off a bye week, meaning they're rested and have been preparing for Washington for about two weeks is the deciding factor.

New York 20, Washington 16


Arizona (-4) over PITTSBURGH, 1:00 ET.

Trust me, there's no way this really good Cardinals team is losing to Mike Vick. Carson Palmer and Chris Johnson will have a field day against that defense.

Arizona 35, Pittsburgh 17


Miami over Tennessee (-2), 1:00 ET.

The Dolphins are coming off their bye after firing their head coach and underperforming horribly in the first part of the season. I think they use the rest, preparation, and motivation to take down a middling Titans squad.

Miami 20, Tennessee 17.


SEATTLE (-7) over Carolina, 4:05 ET.

The line seems way too high for a Seahawks team that hasn't proved it can live up to the success of the past few years, giving away big leads at the end of games because of their vaunted defense. But they've probably heard this all over the sports media and will be motivated to chop Cam Newton's head off on Sunday. In addition, here's who the Panthers have played in their so-far undefeated season:
Jaguars, 20-9
Texans, 24-17
Saints, 27-22
Buccaneers, 37-23
That's a murderer's row of crap. The Panthers need to prove it to me against a legitimate opponent, and that's not happening at CenturyLink Field.

Seattle 31, Carolina 20.


GREEN BAY (-10.5) over San Diego, 4:25 ET.

I'm going to echo the thoughts of the immortal Skip Bayless here; Why is it that the Packers always seem to be playing at home? Whenever I watch a Packers game, they're almost always at home. I don't get it. Anyway, they're going to kill a lackluster San Diego team in their continuation of an incredibly easy schedule.

Green Bay 34, San Diego 23


SAN FRANSISCO over Baltimore (-2), 4:25 ET.

Here's the thing: Colin Kaepernick isn't a horrid quarterback when the defense doesn't get any pressure. The Ravens have no pass rush anymore after the injuries they've had, and they might not be able to stop Carlos Hyde on the ground either. On the other side, The 49ers defense showed it can stop offenses when they held Green Bay to 17 points two weeks ago. In a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII, I'm taking the Niners.

San Fransisco 20, Baltimore 17


New England (-9.5) over INDINAPOLIS, 8:30 ET.

I and Pats fans everywhere have been waiting for this one. The narrative all week has been how the Patriots want to absolutely destroy the Colts for accusing them of deflating footballs. I agree, but when everybody says something, it usually doesn't go that way. I think the Colts have their pride n the line, too, because the Pats have beaten the pulp out of them ever since Andrew Luck got to Indy. I see a shootout if Luck plays and less of a shootout if Matt Hasselbeck plays.

New England 42, Indianapolis 31


MONDAY NIGHT

NY Giants over PHILADELPHIA (-3.5), 8:30 ET.

Why do people still think the Eagles are good? The rules are the home team gets three at home, so this line is insinuating that the Eagles and the Giants are relatively equal teams. They aren't, and I don't see how anyone could come to that conclusion at this point in the season. Oh wow, the Eagles beat the Saints! Do you want a medal Eagles fans? Give me a break.

NY Giants 28, Philadelphia 24

Last week (Week 4): 10-5
Season: 23-7

Week 6 Thursday Night NFL Pick

Since I have a five day weekend off from school and I wasn't able to get out my regular picks column last week because I got so much homework from said school, I figured the least I could do was get out a quick prediction for tonight's game. The home team is in caps and the line is given for reference.

Atlanta (-3) over NEW ORLEANS, 8:25 ET.

This line seems pretty low to me. I mean, I know the Falcons have their weaknesses and aren't all that reliable for an undefeated team, but they've beaten some pretty good squads. They beat the Giants in Week 2, and beat the somehow-still-favored-to-win-the-NFC-East Eagles the week before. They've also proven to be resilient, winning four of their five after trailing in the fourth quarter. Matt Ryan has struggled at times, and Julio Jones has fallen off of his early historic pace, but that's been offset by the discovery of young running back Devonta Freeman, who has gone off for 362 yards and seven rushing touchdowns in his first three games as a starter. The Atlanta defense has been up and down, but has certainly improved from the unit that we saw nearly lose the Eagles game in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, the Saints are a dramatically different team from the one we saw from 2009-2013. Those teams had some of the greatest offenses in league history and almost never lost at home. That's changed now, and a big reason is the fact that Drew Brees appears to have a gigantic salad fork sticking out of his back. He's just not the same guy he was, and he's certainly not getting back to his heyday behind a struggling offensive line that neither gives him the necessary time to throw, nor creates a push for the running game to open up the passing attack for Brees. And that's without touching on the defense, which has been one of the three worst in the league this year. The only reason they were able to beat the Cowboys two weeks ago (who, incidentally, are going to be even worse than the Saints until Tony Romo and Dez Bryant return) was because they got to play Brandon Weeden, who wasn't able to take advantage of New Orleans' hapless secondary. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will be able to exploit it, and Freeman will tear apart the Saints' equally abysmal run defense.

I realize this has all the makings of a trap game (overachieving team in a road division game against a team desperate for a win with a prideful core), but the Saints really have nothing going for them.

Atlanta 31, New Orleans 20

Week 4 NFL Picks

Home team in all caps, time and line given for reference.

NY Jets (-2.5) over Miami, 9:30 AM ET

This is the London game, which is always wonky. The time is weird, the setting is weird, everything is just weird. I heard an interesting point that Miami has played in London before which could give them an edge in preparation, but after what I saw from them against Buffalo last week, I can't take them. The Jets are just a better team.

NY Jets 24, Miami 13


Jacksonville over INDIANAPOLIS (-4), 1:00 ET

Andrew Luck isn't going to play, and the Jaguars offense actually showed some signs last week against the champs. The sky is going to continue to fall in Indy tonight.

Jacksonville 20, Colts 17


Houston over ATLANTA (-5.5), 1:00 ET

Arian Foster will be back for the Texans, so look for him to have success against a weak Falcons front that can't get a push against the run or the pass. Plus, we're waiting for a monster J.J. Watt game. Two upsets in a row!

Houston 17, Atlanta 14


Carolina (-3) over TAMPA BAY, 1:00 ET

The Panthers have looked pretty good, so I got the winning this one over the lowly Buccaneers even without Luke Kuechly at MLB.

Carolina 27, Tampa Bay 20


NY Giants over Buffalo (-6), 1:00 ET

Yes the Bills have a good defense at home. Yes Tyrod Taylor looked good last week. But we saw what you can do to this defense from the Pats game; get the ball out quickly and let your playmakers rip up the Buffalo secondary for YAC. Eli Manning isn't as good as Brady (I can hear the Super Bowl jokes coming), but this is a Giants team that smells blood in the NFC East. I seebig performances for Eli and OBJ.

NY Giants 31, Buffalo 24


Oakland (-3.5) over CHICAGO, 1:00 ET

The Bears are so bad this year that OAKLAND is favored over them. All jokes aside, this Bears team has the 0-16 or 1-15 stink, and the Raiders have played well this season, at least on offense. I wouldn't bet on it though, because it's hard to go 0-16, and if there were a week for the Raiders to remind everyone "Don't bet on us, we're the Raiders!" it would be this week.

Oakland 27, Chicago 14


WASHINGTON over Philadelphia (-3), 1:00 ET

This Eagles team has done nothing to prove to me that it should be getting points on the road. Washington's defense has looked good at times this year, and my skepticism that Sam Bradford was going to go off this year proved correct. I'm definitely not sure about this one, but I trust Washington a little more than Philly.

Washington 24, Philadelphia 21


CINCINNATI (-3.5) over Kansas City, 1:00 ET

I know what you're thinking, "But Aidan, How could you trust Andy Dalton for four straight games?" It's a fair question. But don't worry, Dalton isn't due to destroy the dreams of Bengals fans and gambling degenerates alike until January. Meanwhile, the Chiefs look dead in the water after a thrashing at the hands of the Packers in front of millions on Monday night, and I don't like a short week for such a beat up team.

Cincinnati 28, Kansas City 24


SAN DIEGO (-6) over Cleveland, 4:05 ET

The Chargers aren't that good, but they're obviously better than the Browns. What I can't undrstand is why Cleveland isn't playing Johnny Manziel. They aren't going to do anything this year, so why not see what you have in the guy instead of sending Luke McCown out there? I get that you don't want to rush him in so he plays badly when he's not ready and loses his confidence, but does lack of confidence seem like it would be a problem for Johnny Manziel?

San Diego 35, Cleveland 10


Green Bay (-7.5) over SAN FRANSISCO, 4:25 ET

This 49ers defense got ripped up through the air in consecutive weeks by Ben Rothlisberger and Carson Palmer, both very good quarterbacks, so what makes you think that's going to change with Aaron Rodgers coming to town? Plus, Kaepernick is one of the most turnover prone QB's out there, and the Green Bay defense lives on turnovers.

Green Bay 37, San Fransisco 17


DENVER (-7) over Minnesota, 4:25 ET.

This isn't the mismatch it would appear to be; Peyton Mannng isn't the Peyton Manning of old, but Adrian Peterson is the AP of old. In fact, if this game was in Minny, I might pick the Vikings. However, I cant go against that Denver defense at home against a young QB.

Denver 27, Minnesota 17


ARIZONA (-7) over St. Louis, 4:25 ET

Everyone was picking the Rams as the NFC West sleeper in the offseason, and they appeared to be right after a big 34-31 win over Seattle at home Week 1. But then they showed us who they really were: a good defense with an abysmal offense. They managed just six points against the Steelers last week at home. Meanwhile, the Cardinals proved to be the real threat out of the NFC West, with Carson Palmer being absolutely clinical through three games and a strong running game and defense.

Arizona 34, St. Louis 21


NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Dallas, 8:30 ET

Yeah, I'm never going to pick Brandon Weeden, especially without Dez Bryant and when Drew Brees is back and the Saints at home. Sorry Cowboys fans.

New Orleans 28, Dallas 14

MONDAY NIGHT

SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit, 8:30 ET

Seattle at home with Kam Chancellor back pissed off about a rough start to the season and a struggling Lions team with little hope for a bounce back? Easy.

Seattle 35, Detroit 13


Last Week: 13-2