These are my Week 3 NFL picks, with the time and point spread for reference. The away team is in all caps.
PITTSBURGH over St. Louis (PK) 1:00 ET
In a pick' em game go with the best quarterback. This is Ben Rothlisberger vs. Nick Foles, so I'll roll with the Steelers. People may want to hype the Rams after beating Seattle Week 1, but they promptly went out and lost to the Washington football team (saying the name gets you branded) last week, and that Seattle win looks a lot less impressive with everything we've seen from Seattle this season. Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off a shellacking of the 49ers and would be 2-0 right now if they hadn't played the champs Week 1.
Pittsburgh 28, St. Louis 17
Minnesota (-2.5) over SAN DIEGO 1:00 ET
I don't like this game. While Giovani Bernard did torch San Diego for 123 yards on 20 carries and that makes me fearful for the San Diego defense, this feels like the game the Vikings have every year that establishes them as a non-threat to make the playoffs. But although Philip Rivers is perfectly capable of winning this game by himself, I think this year is different for Minny. I think the Vikings scrape out a win and make a name for themselves in the NFC.
Minnesota 20, San Diego 17
Houston (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET
J.J. Watt vs. a rookie quarterback? The abysmal Houston offense just needs to give up less than 14 points to win this one.
Houston 21, Tampa Bay 10
New York Jets (-2) over PHILADELPHIA
Sure, DeMarco Murray is going to play through a hamstring injury, but I'm not sure if that fixes all the issues the Eagles have. Their offensive line has been terrible and Sam Bradford can't get anything going. A team some had going to the Super Bowl in the preseason has a real good chance of starting 0-3. In contrast, the Jets have overachieved (granted, they beat up on the lowly Browns and not-so-secretly-overrated Colts) and have only given up 17 points through two games. If Eagles fans are hoping for their offense to get into gear, I fear they'll have to wait a little longer.
NY Jets 24, Philadelphia 14
Carolina (-9.5) over NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET
I was going to pick the Panthers before Drew Brees was declared out for the game. Now, one of the game's most irreplaceable players is gone, and the Saints are in unchartered territory. I can't remember the last time they played without Brees, and they will be exposed this week. It won't be pretty.
Carolina 31, New Orleans 7
New England (-13.5) over JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET
I mean, Blake Bortles played really well last week. But he still falls on his back foot and throws into coverage relying on his arm too much. If there's one thing we know about Belichick, it's that he knows how to confuse inexperienced quarterbacks i.e. Tyrod Taylor last week. Plus, Brady's on his Eff You Tour after DeflateGate. I don't really see the Pats letting this one go at home.
New England 35, Jacksonville 17
CINCINNATI over Baltimore (-6.5) 1:00 ET
The Ravens lost to the Raiders. The Raiders! They gave up 37 points to a second year quarterback! They don't have Terrell Suggs! And the Bengals have looked solid through two weeks, nothing special, but solid. And the Ravens lost to the Raiders! Remind me why they're favored by almost a touchdown?
Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 24
OAKLAND over Cleveland (-3.5) 1:00 ET
This may seem a little hypocritical, since I just ripped the Ravens for losing to the Raiders, but Derek Carr looked really good against Baltimore. I know, I know; they're the Raiders. But in my defense, they're playing the Browns! The recent history of ineptitude cancels out and here's how I see it going down: Browns coach Mike Pettine chose to go away from Johnny Manziel after he won the Browns their first game last week with a multitude of big plays. Pettine is going to Josh McCown, who left the Week 1 game against the Jets with a concussion after getting helicoptered and fumbling in the end zone. The way I see it, McCown comes out, looks sloppy, misses a few throws, maybe a pick, and the Browns fans immediately turn on him. At that point, it doesn't matter if Pettine turns to Manziel or sticks with McCown, both players' confidence will be hurt. That'll be just enough for the Raiders to eke out a win.
Oakland 24, Cleveland 20
INDIANAPOLS (-3) over Tennessee 1:00 ET
It seems like the sky is falling in Indy, and I can't blame their fans for freaking out; the Colts, and their beloved Andrew Luck, have NOT looked good. The crumbling offensive line, lack of running game, Andre Johnson's slow start and injuries to T.Y Hilton have shown Lucks main weakness; at times, he just forces things too much. However, all is not lost, Colts fans. you still play in the AFC South, and you have the Titans this week.
Indianapolis 28, Tennessee 21
Dallas over ATLANTA (-1.5) 1:00 ET
I can't explain it. I don't know why I'm picking the Cowboys without Tony Romo or Dez Bryant. Well, actually, I do. I don't trust the Falcons enough to win this game. Sure, they've looked good on defense through two games, but they haven't faced an offensive line like this Dallas line. I think the Cowboys stay gritty defensively, grind out a ton of yards on the ground, give Brandon Weeden some easy throws... wait, what am I doing? Brandon freaking Weeden? Have I lost my mind?
ATLANTA (-1.5) over Dallas
Atlanta 24, Dallas 14
Arizona (-6.5) over SAN FRANSISCO 4:05 ET
After a stellar Week 1 vs. Minnesota, San Fran got absolutely rolled by Big Ben and the Steelers last week through the air. I see that continuing this week with a rejuvenated Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals waiting for them. Palmer is matched only by Brady for TD passes so far, and him at home in a dome bodes well for the Arizona passing attack.
Arizona 31, San Fransisco 24
Seattle (-14.5) over CHICAGO 4:05 ET
Oh boy. I thought this was going to be a blowout when I first saw it on the schedule in preseason. Now Jimmy Clausen will be replacing Jay Cutler as Chicago's turnover machine at quarterback. No Alshon Jeffery or Kevin White at receiver for Clausen. The Seahawks are getting Kam Chancellor back, are pissed after starting 0-2, and the game is in Seattle. Oh no.
Seattle 38, Chicago 6
BUFFALO over Miami (-3) 4:05 ET
I don't really understand why Miami is favored in this one. Miami beat Washington and then lost to Jacksonville. Buffalo beat Indy handily then lost to the Pats in a late shootout. What am I missing? Buffalo nearly pulled a huge comeback out of their butts against the world champs, Miami couldn't manage to beat the Jaguars. I don't get it.
Buffalo 24, Miami 14
DENVER (-3) over Detroit 8:30 ET
Trust me, nobody's been hating more on Peyton Manning for his struggles than me. Also believe that it would be my first wish to go back and take Matt Forte instead of C.J. Anderson behind that crappy Denver O-Line in the first round of my fantasy draft. But they did beat Kansas City last Thursday, they've gotten a long week, and that defense is looking really good. Plus, Detroit has underachieved and Matt Stafford is banged up. If nothing else, the Denver defense is licking its chops ready to feast on the vulnerable Lions and are ready to win this game by themselves, just like Week 1 against Baltimore.
Denver 31, Detroit 10
MONDAY NIGHT
Green Bay (-5.5) over KANSAS CITY
Rodgers at home in prime time? Come on.
Green Bay 28, Kansas City 21
PITTSBURGH over St. Louis (PK) 1:00 ET
In a pick' em game go with the best quarterback. This is Ben Rothlisberger vs. Nick Foles, so I'll roll with the Steelers. People may want to hype the Rams after beating Seattle Week 1, but they promptly went out and lost to the Washington football team (saying the name gets you branded) last week, and that Seattle win looks a lot less impressive with everything we've seen from Seattle this season. Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off a shellacking of the 49ers and would be 2-0 right now if they hadn't played the champs Week 1.
Pittsburgh 28, St. Louis 17
Minnesota (-2.5) over SAN DIEGO 1:00 ET
I don't like this game. While Giovani Bernard did torch San Diego for 123 yards on 20 carries and that makes me fearful for the San Diego defense, this feels like the game the Vikings have every year that establishes them as a non-threat to make the playoffs. But although Philip Rivers is perfectly capable of winning this game by himself, I think this year is different for Minny. I think the Vikings scrape out a win and make a name for themselves in the NFC.
Minnesota 20, San Diego 17
Houston (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET
J.J. Watt vs. a rookie quarterback? The abysmal Houston offense just needs to give up less than 14 points to win this one.
Houston 21, Tampa Bay 10
New York Jets (-2) over PHILADELPHIA
Sure, DeMarco Murray is going to play through a hamstring injury, but I'm not sure if that fixes all the issues the Eagles have. Their offensive line has been terrible and Sam Bradford can't get anything going. A team some had going to the Super Bowl in the preseason has a real good chance of starting 0-3. In contrast, the Jets have overachieved (granted, they beat up on the lowly Browns and not-so-secretly-overrated Colts) and have only given up 17 points through two games. If Eagles fans are hoping for their offense to get into gear, I fear they'll have to wait a little longer.
NY Jets 24, Philadelphia 14
Carolina (-9.5) over NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET
I was going to pick the Panthers before Drew Brees was declared out for the game. Now, one of the game's most irreplaceable players is gone, and the Saints are in unchartered territory. I can't remember the last time they played without Brees, and they will be exposed this week. It won't be pretty.
Carolina 31, New Orleans 7
New England (-13.5) over JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET
I mean, Blake Bortles played really well last week. But he still falls on his back foot and throws into coverage relying on his arm too much. If there's one thing we know about Belichick, it's that he knows how to confuse inexperienced quarterbacks i.e. Tyrod Taylor last week. Plus, Brady's on his Eff You Tour after DeflateGate. I don't really see the Pats letting this one go at home.
New England 35, Jacksonville 17
CINCINNATI over Baltimore (-6.5) 1:00 ET
The Ravens lost to the Raiders. The Raiders! They gave up 37 points to a second year quarterback! They don't have Terrell Suggs! And the Bengals have looked solid through two weeks, nothing special, but solid. And the Ravens lost to the Raiders! Remind me why they're favored by almost a touchdown?
Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 24
OAKLAND over Cleveland (-3.5) 1:00 ET
This may seem a little hypocritical, since I just ripped the Ravens for losing to the Raiders, but Derek Carr looked really good against Baltimore. I know, I know; they're the Raiders. But in my defense, they're playing the Browns! The recent history of ineptitude cancels out and here's how I see it going down: Browns coach Mike Pettine chose to go away from Johnny Manziel after he won the Browns their first game last week with a multitude of big plays. Pettine is going to Josh McCown, who left the Week 1 game against the Jets with a concussion after getting helicoptered and fumbling in the end zone. The way I see it, McCown comes out, looks sloppy, misses a few throws, maybe a pick, and the Browns fans immediately turn on him. At that point, it doesn't matter if Pettine turns to Manziel or sticks with McCown, both players' confidence will be hurt. That'll be just enough for the Raiders to eke out a win.
Oakland 24, Cleveland 20
INDIANAPOLS (-3) over Tennessee 1:00 ET
It seems like the sky is falling in Indy, and I can't blame their fans for freaking out; the Colts, and their beloved Andrew Luck, have NOT looked good. The crumbling offensive line, lack of running game, Andre Johnson's slow start and injuries to T.Y Hilton have shown Lucks main weakness; at times, he just forces things too much. However, all is not lost, Colts fans. you still play in the AFC South, and you have the Titans this week.
Indianapolis 28, Tennessee 21
Dallas over ATLANTA (-1.5) 1:00 ET
I can't explain it. I don't know why I'm picking the Cowboys without Tony Romo or Dez Bryant. Well, actually, I do. I don't trust the Falcons enough to win this game. Sure, they've looked good on defense through two games, but they haven't faced an offensive line like this Dallas line. I think the Cowboys stay gritty defensively, grind out a ton of yards on the ground, give Brandon Weeden some easy throws... wait, what am I doing? Brandon freaking Weeden? Have I lost my mind?
ATLANTA (-1.5) over Dallas
Atlanta 24, Dallas 14
Arizona (-6.5) over SAN FRANSISCO 4:05 ET
After a stellar Week 1 vs. Minnesota, San Fran got absolutely rolled by Big Ben and the Steelers last week through the air. I see that continuing this week with a rejuvenated Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals waiting for them. Palmer is matched only by Brady for TD passes so far, and him at home in a dome bodes well for the Arizona passing attack.
Arizona 31, San Fransisco 24
Seattle (-14.5) over CHICAGO 4:05 ET
Oh boy. I thought this was going to be a blowout when I first saw it on the schedule in preseason. Now Jimmy Clausen will be replacing Jay Cutler as Chicago's turnover machine at quarterback. No Alshon Jeffery or Kevin White at receiver for Clausen. The Seahawks are getting Kam Chancellor back, are pissed after starting 0-2, and the game is in Seattle. Oh no.
Seattle 38, Chicago 6
BUFFALO over Miami (-3) 4:05 ET
I don't really understand why Miami is favored in this one. Miami beat Washington and then lost to Jacksonville. Buffalo beat Indy handily then lost to the Pats in a late shootout. What am I missing? Buffalo nearly pulled a huge comeback out of their butts against the world champs, Miami couldn't manage to beat the Jaguars. I don't get it.
Buffalo 24, Miami 14
DENVER (-3) over Detroit 8:30 ET
Trust me, nobody's been hating more on Peyton Manning for his struggles than me. Also believe that it would be my first wish to go back and take Matt Forte instead of C.J. Anderson behind that crappy Denver O-Line in the first round of my fantasy draft. But they did beat Kansas City last Thursday, they've gotten a long week, and that defense is looking really good. Plus, Detroit has underachieved and Matt Stafford is banged up. If nothing else, the Denver defense is licking its chops ready to feast on the vulnerable Lions and are ready to win this game by themselves, just like Week 1 against Baltimore.
Denver 31, Detroit 10
MONDAY NIGHT
Green Bay (-5.5) over KANSAS CITY
Rodgers at home in prime time? Come on.
Green Bay 28, Kansas City 21
