Alright, here we are. The last game of the year. For two teams, the entire season comes down to one more game. The ways that the two teams, the Panthers and the Broncos, got here are very different. The Panthers dominated their way through the regular season to the tune of 15-1, played an incredible first half against Seattle, and culminated in four quarters of blasting the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Broncos' season was predicated on getting dominated, hanging around, and ultimately winning in the luckiest way possible in just about every game. They went 12-4, won a game they got worked in against Pittsburgh, and then utilized their tremendous defense to eke out a win against my Patriots last week.
Many people have been saying that this Super Bowl will be reminiscent of the 43-8 beat down the Broncos suffered at the hands of the Seahawks two years ago. While I agree that trouble could definitely be in store for Peyton Manning in a similar way this year, it isn't the same dynamic. John Elway used that Super Bowl to begin the creation of the NFL's best defense, and it sure looked like that last week. The Broncos absolutely eviscerated Tom Brady and the Patriots' offensive line, hitting Brady an astounding 20 times and forcing him into two interceptions. They held the vaunted Patriots offense to just 18 points, and it was a total team effort. It started with the secondary cutting off Brady's quick throws to Edelman and Amendola, and they laid crushing hits on any receiver who actually did find enough space to catch the ball. The defensive line took over from there, winning one-on-one match-ups with the depleted New England offensive line and putting more pressure on Brady than a QB has had to face in about 10 years. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware lead the pass rush and Miller put on one of the all-time playoff performances by a defensive player last week. He was everywhere, and his 2.5 sacks don't even reflect how many times he hit Brady. He also had a key interception in Patriots territory leading to a Broncos TD. All year everyone said the Broncos had the league's best defense, and they sure looked like it last week. But they haven't faced someone like Cam Newton yet.
Newton leads the Panthers' offense on and off the field. He has grown from being a pouty, whiny college kid to a thoughtful, confident, charismatic leader of the league's best team. Newton is right up there with Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers among the league's best dual threats at the quarterback position, accounting for 45 total touchdowns and 4,473 total yards. At 6'5 250, he's been an unstoppable combination of power and speed running the ball ever since college, but what has made him this year's leading candidate for MVP is his evolution in the passing game. He's now a premier pocket passer, standing tall and strong in the pocket and delivering throws down the field to his receivers. His accomplishments are made all the more impressive when considering his situation at receiver. Tight end Greg Olsen has been playing at an all-pro level, but other than him, the Panthers don't have the kind of weapons on the outside that the league's best offense usually has. Second year star wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL before the season, so Newton has had to rely on Ted Ginn Jr. as his number one receiver. Ginn is a great deep threat with incredible speed, but isn't the best route runner and can generally be counted on for at least one or two drops per game. The Denver defense has to be able to take advantage of Carolina's dearth at wideout, because they will need to focus on the Panthers' league-best running game. Running back Jonathan Stewart is one of the league's most underrated runners, a strong and dynamic back who can cut through a defense or run right through it. The Panthers are also one of the only teams who still use a fullback in the running game, Mike Tolbert, who when running through defenses is best compared to a bowling ball toppling pins. And then, of course, is Newton, who had 636 running yards this year and ten rushing touchdowns. On any given play any of those three can get the ball and hurt you, or Newton can throw the ball to hurt you. It's this dynamic ability that made the Panthers so unstoppable this year.
The Panthers have a stifling defense to their credit as well, though perhaps not as swarming as that of the Broncos. They have one of the league's best two defensive players in linebacker Luke Kuechly, who can get to the QB, cover running backs and tight ends, return interceptions for touchdowns, or just lay the smack down on a running back who thinks he has a hole. Kuechly was paired with fellow linebacker Thomas Davis, the poor man's Kuechly, for much of the season, but Davis suffered a broken forearm last week. Although he says he will play, it will be something to watch out for. The Panthers have a defensive line almost as effective in getting to the passer and stopping the run as Denver's is, led by Star Lotulelei, Charles Johnson, and the returning Jared Allen. All-pro cornerback Josh Norman anchors the secondary, which has been a turnover-creating machine this year, which doesn't bode well for Peyton Manning.
Speaking of Peyton, I heard an astounding stat about him recently; he's about to join a select group of quarterbacks to start four Super Bowls, but he will be the first to do so with four different coaches. As a Pats fan, I've always sung the praises of Brady and tried to focus on Manning's shortcomings, but there's no denying Manning's incredible run. He does, however, have to win another Super Bowl to be mentioned with Brady and Montana and Unitas among the greatest quarterbacks to ever play, and he faces a steep challenge against this Panthers juggernaut. Although he's played better since returning from injury, simply limiting turnovers will not be enough against this Panthers team. Sure, he threw for two touchdowns and no interceptions last week against New England, but he didn't have a drive go more than 50 yards after the first one. That New England defense laid the blueprint for how to stifle the Broncos offense, and the Panthers have a better defense by any calculation. Sure, Manning has some of the best weapons in the league to throw to in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but the Pats essentially held them in check for most of the game. Manning's two touchdowns went to tight end Owen Daniels, and you can be sure the Panthers won't let Owen Daniels beat them. There isn't much hope for Denver in the running game either, which also struggled against the Pats last game, when the Patriots don't ave a great run defense and the Panthers do. It's going to be hard for the Broncos to score,which is why I think that Manning could have similar issues to that Super Bowl of two years ago, when he may have been playing a better defense, but was still at the height of his powers coming of his record breaking 55 TD season. This year's version of Manning is still apt to missing throws and putting the ball in the hands of the defense. It's just a matter of if the Panthers will be able to take advantage, unlike the Patriots.
So now that I've laid it all out for you, here's my pick...
Carolina (-5) over Denver, 6:30 ET.
What you have to remember about my picks is that they're about who I think will win, not who I would bet on. If it was who I would bet on, I would go with the Broncos because they keep every game close because of their defense. I don't think they will lose by five points or more, because of their defense, like I said, and the lucky horseshoe sticking out of their butts. They are absolutely the luckiest team football has ever seen, and that, along with the possibility of a fairy tale ending for Manning in a career full of bad luck, scares me the most about this game. I'm going to be honest; I don't want the Broncos to win. Come 5:30, I will be rooting heartily for the Panthers, because I'm a Patriots fan and that game from two weeks ago is still pissing me off. However, that doesn't change my pick. I really do think that the Panthers have the better team, but I also appreciate that the Broncos' eerie ability to stay in games in which they are being dominated is a skill. But I think this is the week that their luck runs out. The Panthers are a freaking juggernaut that laid one of the all-time playoff poundings on a really good Cardinals team two weeks ago. They forced Carson Palmer into six turnovers. Remember, this guy was an MVP candidate for much of the year, and the Panthers annihilated him. How do you think old noodle-armed Peyton Manning is going to fare against this defense? I think the Broncos defense will keep them in the game, perhaps even recording a defensive touchdown. But I just don't believe that Manning can get it done against this defense. We'll see.
Carolina 20, Denver 13.
Playoffs: 9-1
Overall Season: 98-46
Many people have been saying that this Super Bowl will be reminiscent of the 43-8 beat down the Broncos suffered at the hands of the Seahawks two years ago. While I agree that trouble could definitely be in store for Peyton Manning in a similar way this year, it isn't the same dynamic. John Elway used that Super Bowl to begin the creation of the NFL's best defense, and it sure looked like that last week. The Broncos absolutely eviscerated Tom Brady and the Patriots' offensive line, hitting Brady an astounding 20 times and forcing him into two interceptions. They held the vaunted Patriots offense to just 18 points, and it was a total team effort. It started with the secondary cutting off Brady's quick throws to Edelman and Amendola, and they laid crushing hits on any receiver who actually did find enough space to catch the ball. The defensive line took over from there, winning one-on-one match-ups with the depleted New England offensive line and putting more pressure on Brady than a QB has had to face in about 10 years. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware lead the pass rush and Miller put on one of the all-time playoff performances by a defensive player last week. He was everywhere, and his 2.5 sacks don't even reflect how many times he hit Brady. He also had a key interception in Patriots territory leading to a Broncos TD. All year everyone said the Broncos had the league's best defense, and they sure looked like it last week. But they haven't faced someone like Cam Newton yet.
Newton leads the Panthers' offense on and off the field. He has grown from being a pouty, whiny college kid to a thoughtful, confident, charismatic leader of the league's best team. Newton is right up there with Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers among the league's best dual threats at the quarterback position, accounting for 45 total touchdowns and 4,473 total yards. At 6'5 250, he's been an unstoppable combination of power and speed running the ball ever since college, but what has made him this year's leading candidate for MVP is his evolution in the passing game. He's now a premier pocket passer, standing tall and strong in the pocket and delivering throws down the field to his receivers. His accomplishments are made all the more impressive when considering his situation at receiver. Tight end Greg Olsen has been playing at an all-pro level, but other than him, the Panthers don't have the kind of weapons on the outside that the league's best offense usually has. Second year star wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL before the season, so Newton has had to rely on Ted Ginn Jr. as his number one receiver. Ginn is a great deep threat with incredible speed, but isn't the best route runner and can generally be counted on for at least one or two drops per game. The Denver defense has to be able to take advantage of Carolina's dearth at wideout, because they will need to focus on the Panthers' league-best running game. Running back Jonathan Stewart is one of the league's most underrated runners, a strong and dynamic back who can cut through a defense or run right through it. The Panthers are also one of the only teams who still use a fullback in the running game, Mike Tolbert, who when running through defenses is best compared to a bowling ball toppling pins. And then, of course, is Newton, who had 636 running yards this year and ten rushing touchdowns. On any given play any of those three can get the ball and hurt you, or Newton can throw the ball to hurt you. It's this dynamic ability that made the Panthers so unstoppable this year.
The Panthers have a stifling defense to their credit as well, though perhaps not as swarming as that of the Broncos. They have one of the league's best two defensive players in linebacker Luke Kuechly, who can get to the QB, cover running backs and tight ends, return interceptions for touchdowns, or just lay the smack down on a running back who thinks he has a hole. Kuechly was paired with fellow linebacker Thomas Davis, the poor man's Kuechly, for much of the season, but Davis suffered a broken forearm last week. Although he says he will play, it will be something to watch out for. The Panthers have a defensive line almost as effective in getting to the passer and stopping the run as Denver's is, led by Star Lotulelei, Charles Johnson, and the returning Jared Allen. All-pro cornerback Josh Norman anchors the secondary, which has been a turnover-creating machine this year, which doesn't bode well for Peyton Manning.
Speaking of Peyton, I heard an astounding stat about him recently; he's about to join a select group of quarterbacks to start four Super Bowls, but he will be the first to do so with four different coaches. As a Pats fan, I've always sung the praises of Brady and tried to focus on Manning's shortcomings, but there's no denying Manning's incredible run. He does, however, have to win another Super Bowl to be mentioned with Brady and Montana and Unitas among the greatest quarterbacks to ever play, and he faces a steep challenge against this Panthers juggernaut. Although he's played better since returning from injury, simply limiting turnovers will not be enough against this Panthers team. Sure, he threw for two touchdowns and no interceptions last week against New England, but he didn't have a drive go more than 50 yards after the first one. That New England defense laid the blueprint for how to stifle the Broncos offense, and the Panthers have a better defense by any calculation. Sure, Manning has some of the best weapons in the league to throw to in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but the Pats essentially held them in check for most of the game. Manning's two touchdowns went to tight end Owen Daniels, and you can be sure the Panthers won't let Owen Daniels beat them. There isn't much hope for Denver in the running game either, which also struggled against the Pats last game, when the Patriots don't ave a great run defense and the Panthers do. It's going to be hard for the Broncos to score,which is why I think that Manning could have similar issues to that Super Bowl of two years ago, when he may have been playing a better defense, but was still at the height of his powers coming of his record breaking 55 TD season. This year's version of Manning is still apt to missing throws and putting the ball in the hands of the defense. It's just a matter of if the Panthers will be able to take advantage, unlike the Patriots.
So now that I've laid it all out for you, here's my pick...
Carolina (-5) over Denver, 6:30 ET.
What you have to remember about my picks is that they're about who I think will win, not who I would bet on. If it was who I would bet on, I would go with the Broncos because they keep every game close because of their defense. I don't think they will lose by five points or more, because of their defense, like I said, and the lucky horseshoe sticking out of their butts. They are absolutely the luckiest team football has ever seen, and that, along with the possibility of a fairy tale ending for Manning in a career full of bad luck, scares me the most about this game. I'm going to be honest; I don't want the Broncos to win. Come 5:30, I will be rooting heartily for the Panthers, because I'm a Patriots fan and that game from two weeks ago is still pissing me off. However, that doesn't change my pick. I really do think that the Panthers have the better team, but I also appreciate that the Broncos' eerie ability to stay in games in which they are being dominated is a skill. But I think this is the week that their luck runs out. The Panthers are a freaking juggernaut that laid one of the all-time playoff poundings on a really good Cardinals team two weeks ago. They forced Carson Palmer into six turnovers. Remember, this guy was an MVP candidate for much of the year, and the Panthers annihilated him. How do you think old noodle-armed Peyton Manning is going to fare against this defense? I think the Broncos defense will keep them in the game, perhaps even recording a defensive touchdown. But I just don't believe that Manning can get it done against this defense. We'll see.
Carolina 20, Denver 13.
Playoffs: 9-1
Overall Season: 98-46
