Week 12 NFL Picks: Thanksgiving Edition

Thanksgiving might be my favorite holiday of the year. Sure, you don't get presents or candy, but the last few years my family have visited my brother at the University of Michigan for Thanksgiving. He's in the band, and it would be hard for him to get back for the huge Ohio State game that always follows Thanksgiving on Saturday. Anyway, it's become one of my favorite traditions to come and visit here and watch NFL games in a guest house with my family, not to mention we've gone to the Ohio State game when it's been here. I know a lot of people have a similar fondness for this holiday, and it's to those people that I dedicate these latest picks. As always, the home team is in all caps and the line and time of the game are given for reference.

Philadelphia (-2.5) over DETROIT, 12:30 ET.

I think people are finally starting to figure out that the Eagles aren't that good. -2.5 is a good line for them here against the lowly Lions. I'm looking for the Eagles defense to rebound from a rough game last week to put pressure on Matt Stafford and force some typical Stafford turnovers.
What people seem to forget is that it's really hard to be a one-dimensional offense in the NFL, and the Lions are about as one-dimensional as anyone. They hardly ever run the ball, and that puts an enormous amount of pressure on Stafford to make every play and big plays for the Lions, and when you have the gunslinger's mentality that Stafford has, it's going to lead to turnovers. The Lions need to make finding a running game their main goal this offseason, but for now, the Eagles will be able to key in on Stafford.
As for the Eagles offense, Mark Sanchez appeared to be an upgrade over Sam Bradford last week until he, along with everyone else, remembered that he's Mark Sanchez and ended up with three interceptions. He appears to be getting the start again this week, so we'll have to see if he can step his game up in prime time like he did on Thanksgiving last year in destroying the Cowboys. All I know is, I don't like picking games where I don't trust either team, and this is a prime example of that kind of game.

Philadelphia 23, Detroit 21.


DALLAS (-1) over Carolina, 4:30 ET.

I don't know if there's any legitimate reason to pick the Cowboys, on paper anyway. What the Cowboys do well offensively (running game, big plays to Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, security blanket for Tony Romo over the middle in tight end Jason Witten) the Panthers match up well with (push up front, great, physical secondary, Luke Kuechly patrolling the middle of the field). The same is true for the other side of the ball; the Cowboys can't stop the run, the Panthers excel at running the ball, and they have a big,strong, mobile QB to escape the Dallas pass rush and make plays down the field.
So there isn't much rhyme or reason to this pick, I'm really just basing my decision on the fact that I don't think Carolina is good enough to go undefeated for this long. I really like them, just not that much. Also, the Cowboys are hungry, needing a win this week to stay in the race for the NFC East. Usually when a team is hungrier, you can bet on that team to win. It's all going to come down to whether or not the Panthers can brainwash themselves into believing that they're the hungrier team. If that happens all bets are off. But for now, I'm rolling with the team that has its QB back and needs a win this week.

Dallas 24, Carolina 23.


GREEN BAY (-8) over Chicago, 8:30 ET

The Packers seemed to fix their problems last week when they killed the Vikings on the road. Their defense was swarming, recording six sacks, not giving Adrian Peterson any room, immediately tackling anyone before they got down field. I kind of figured they would bounce back after their three game skid, and even though the offense still struggled at times to generate separation, I don't see it changing this week.
The Bears have been underrated this year. They have had some bad luck against good teams; they could easily have a winning record. I just don't see them winning this game, not at Lambeau, not in prime time, not on Thanksgiving. There's always the potential for a Jay Cutler interception or two turning this game ugly; he just can't figure out the Packers. I dob't know if it will happen, it's just always hovering on the horizon.
P.S. Here's an interesting aspect to this game: What if the Bears come out and score, take it to the Packers a little bit and go into halftime tied or (gasp) maybe even leading? What if Green Bay's receivers continue to struggle to get open and Rodgers gets a little frustrated? And then the Packers have their ceremony retiring Favre's number and he looks a little too pleased with himself or makes a few snarky remarks about a comeback? I think it's very possible we see a pissed-off Rodgers account for seven touchdowns in the second half if things play out that way. We'll see.

Green Bay 31, Chicago 21.

NFL Week 11 Picks

We're starting to come down the stretch of this NFL season. Playoff spots are at stake and there are a lot of important games this week. As usual, home team is in all caps and the time and line are given for reference.

CAROLINA (-7) over Washington, 1:00 ET.

Man, the Panthers have had an easy schedule while going undefeated. The only team now over .500 they played was the Packers, who they caught in the middle of this three-game swoon. I think Washington will put up a good fight, but I can't see that Redskins offense getting enough points to beat Carolina.

Carolina 24, Washington 21.


Oakland over DETROIT (-1), 1:00 ET.

This line is just stupid. Just because the Lions barely squeezed out a win against the struggling Packers doesn't mean they should ever be favored. If I were a betting man, I would definitely take the Raiders. Thankfully, I'm not, but I'm still taking the Raiders to beat Detroit. The Raiders have a good offense, they can throw the ball. The Lions offense couldn't put up more than 18 against the crappy Green Bay defense.

Oakland 31, Detroit 20.


Dallas (-1.5) over MIAMI, 1:00 ET.

I'm breaking a rule here; If you're going to pick a team that is favored on the road, they better be really good. I have no idea if the Cowboys can regain their form from last year, when they should have been in the NFC Championship Game. They've lost the seven games that Tony Romo didn't start this season. Even though a lot of those were in heartbreaking fashion at the end of the game, should a team really be that reliant on a quarterback? Today will answer some of our questions about the Cowboys. If they lose, their season is over. If they win, they still have to win a bunch more. For now, I'm betting on a regression to the mean as far as their luck is considered.

Dallas 28, Miami 24.


ATLANTA (-3.5) over Indianapolis, 1:00 ET.

Both of these teams have been lackluster recently. The Falcons started off 5-0, then proceeded to lose three of their next four. Indy is 4-5 after many picked them to go to the Super Bow in the preseason. The Colts don't have Andrew Luck, and while backup Matt Hasselbeck has been better than Luck this year, he isn't the same big play threat as Luck, which should allow the Falcons to stack the box. I believe the Falcons will get back on track at home.

Atlanta 28, Indianapolis 21.


St. Louis over BALTIMORE (-3), 1:00 ET.

Um... Why is Baltimore favored? I realize the Rams are switching QB's, but can Case Keenum be any worse than Nick Foles? (By the way, how overall crappy was that Sam Bradford-for-Foles trade?) Todd Gurley hs estabished himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL as a rookie. The Rams defense is as nasty as ever. I don't get why the Ravens are favored by three, even at home.

St. Louis 24, Baltimore 14.


New York Jets (-4) over HOUSTON, 1:00 ET.

I'll have to admit I was wrong about Houston being the worst team in the NFL; I shouldn't have underestimated how inept the Browns can be. However, I don't think they have what it takes to beat this Jets defense, not with Arian Foster gone.

New York 24, Houston 20.


PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET.

Anybody who has read any of these picks columns or knows me at all knows I don't trust the Eagles. If this were a gambling column, I would definitely pick the Bucs. They can run the ball, Jameis Winston has settled in, and their defense can be good at times, and I don't trust the Eagles to win by a touchdown. How could I after they collapsed against the Dolphins last week? I don't know if Mark Sanchez is an upgrade over Sam Bradford. However, this is a column about who will win, and  think the Eagles underrated defense will make enough plays to win.

Philadelphia 21, Tampa Bay 20.


CHICAGO over Denver (-2), 1:00 ET.

Yeah, it's a pretty sure bet that this will backfire on me. I don't like the idea of Jay Cutler, due for a turnover or two this season, against the league's best defense. But Brock Osweiler making his first start on the road against a pretty good defense with no running game to help him out? I at least trust Cutler more than that guy.

Chicago 23, Denver 20.


Kansas City (-3) over SAN DIEGO, 4:05 ET.

San Diego actually has a negative home field advantage. More fans show up for the other team than for the Chargers. The Chiefs are coming off a big win over Denver and should be able to take away the Chargers strength in their passing game after picking off Peyton Manning 4 times and holding him to 5-20 for just 35 yards.

Kansas City 30, San Diego 21.


SEATTLE (-14) over San Fransisco, 4:25 ET.

It seems as though every time the Seahawks appear to be down and out, they get to play the abhorrent 49ers the next week. This time they get to play back-up QB Blaine Gabbert at home. At some point Seattle is going to have to beat someone besides the 49ers, but that isn't a problem this week.

Seattle 35, San Fransisco 10.


Green Bay (PK) over MINNESOTA, 4:25 ET.

I'm going to write a separate game summary piece specifically for this game, for three reasons:
1) I live in Minnesota and though I'm not a Vikings fan, the electricity around this game here is palpable. People are so ready to stick it in Green Bay's face.
2) Despite the fact that I'm not a Vikings fan, I do have a specific distaste for Aaron Rodgers because he's basically perfect and people try to place him above my favorite player ever, Tom Brady.
3) It's going to be a great game. The Packers are coming off three straight losses and have something to prove. Even though they lead the division, nobody believes in the Vikings, and the fans here are sick of it.
So that's what makes me excited to watch this game. Ultimately, it's hard to bet against Rodgers against the NFC North. However, he did just lose to the Lions at home last week. I don't know. What I do know is I can't wait.

Green Bay 28, Minnesota 27.



ARIZONA (-4.5) over Cincinnati, 8:30 ET.

I think this is going to be another really good game. The Cardinals are playing on Sunday night for the second straight week and the Bengals are coming off their first loss of the season, a shocker against the Texans. The Houston defense exposed some flaws in the Bengals offense that I think the Arizona defense will key in on. I think this game could come down to the final possession, and I trust Carson Palmer at home a little more than Andy Dalton on the road.

Arizona 31, Cincinnati 28.


Last Week: 7-5
Season: 55-27

Week 10 NFL Picks

I'm not excited for this week in the NFL. How could I be when my Patriots are going up against the arch-rival Giants? I'm a nervous wreck. The Giants live to end Patriot undefeated seasons, as we all know. I'm going to take my mind off it by picking these games. The home team is in all caps and the time and line are given for reference. (Sorry for missing last week, by the way)

GREEN BAY (-10.5) over Detroit, 1:00 ET.

Here's all the reasons the Packers would win this game:

• Pissed off after two road losses in which they didn't perform as well as they could:
• Aaron Rodgers at home.
• Detroit is vulnerable in every respect on defense.
• Detroit has nothing going on offense and are turnover-prone, and the Packers defense thrives on turnovers.
• Aaron Rodgers at home.
• A bunch of drunk Wisconsians wearing cheese on their head.
• Aaron Rodgers at home.

And here's all the reasons Detroit would win:

• Literally none.

Green Bay 31, Detroit 14.

TAMPA BAY over Dallas (-1), 1:00 ET.

I just don't think it's Dallas' year. They've been destroyed by injuries the likes of which I can't remember in football. Dallas proved vulnerable against the run against the Eagles last week, and Doug Martin, although struggling lately, could show out. Plus, the Dallas defense doesn't force the thing that Jameis Winston is bad at, which is forcing turnovers. As for the other side of the ball, It's just going to be tough for the Cowboys until Tony Romo returns.

Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 20.

Carolina (-4) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

I don't think Carolina is going to run away with this like some people might think. Tennessee is good when Marcus Mariota is playing, and he's back from injury. I envision a low-scorer, which favors the Panthers.

Carolina 20, Tennessee 14.

ST. LOUIS (-7) over Chicago, 1:00 ET.

I like the Bears more than most, but not more than I like the Rams. They have a really good defense and a young stud running in Todd Gurley. After heroically pulling out a late win last week in San Diego and having a few talking heads over at ESPN talk about how he's been underrated, I'm afraid this is the week Jay Cutler has four turnovers and gets written off for the rest of the season, even though he could play well the rest of the year.

St. Louis 27, Chicago 20.

New Orleans (PK) over WASHINGTON, 1:00 ET.

I don't want to go near this game, because anything could happen. Drew Brees could pick the Washington defense apart, or Washington could grind out a tough W. I really don't know, but I have to make a pick, so:

New Orleans 28, Washington 24.

PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Miami, 1:00 ET.

I don't like Philadelphia. I still don't believe in them as a playoff team. But I sure like them a lot more than the Dolphins without Cameron Wake. Sam Bradford struggles against pressure, but without Wake wreaking havoc on the line, Bradford can just dink and dunk the Eagles to a win.

Philladelphia 28, Miami 21.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5), over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Yeah, Ben Rothlisberger is out. Yeah, Le'veon Bell is out for the year. They're still playing the Cleveland Browns, who always find a way to lose.

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20.

Jacksonville over BALTIMORE (-5.5), 1:00 ET.

In football gambling, the home team is supposed to get three points for home field advantage. So the Ravens are three points better than the Jaguars on a neutral field? No way. The Ravens are crappy, and you can't tell me otherwise.

Jacksonville 27, Baltimore 23.

Minnesota over OAKLAND (-3), 4:05 ET.

Both of these teams have been surprisingly good this year, and I like both. Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out momentarily by a dirty hit against the Rams last week, and it is worrying that he's back one week later, but their offense is based on Adrian Paterson anyway. I think that the Vikings have a really good defense and will make the big play needed to stop the high-powered Raiders.

Minnesota 26, Oakland 24.

DENVER (-3.5) over Kansas City, 4:25 ET.

Denver is only getting 3.5 points at home? Meaning they're supposedly half a point better than the Chiefs in a neutral setting? With that defense at home against the Chiefs without Jamaal Charles?

I think people are overreacting to Denver losing at Indianapolis. Listen; it's really hard to go undefeated. Denver was bound to lose at some point. That doesn't mean they'll lose to the Chiefs.

Denver 24, Kansas City 17.

New England (-7) over NY GIANTS, 4:25 ET.

My stomach is queasy about this one. I won't be mad if the Patriots don't go undefeated; that's too much to ask. But I definitely don't want it to end against the hated Giants. The Giants have the playmakers to hurt the Patriots pass defense, and the Patriots haven't been strong where Eli Manning is historically weak (turnovers). Meanwhile, the Giants have Jason Pierre-Paul back, who looked good last week, against the makeshift Pats offensive line. We all know that the formula for beating the Patriots is to get pressure on Brady up the middle by winning one-on-one battles so the secondary can sit back and not blitz. That's the formula the Giants used to take down the Patriots in two Super Bowls. I still think the Pats will win, but I'm not confident.

New England 28, New York 27.

Arizona over SEATTLE (-3), 8:30 ET.

Seattle just isn't as good this year. There's something weird going on with the chemistry in that locker room. I just think the Cardinals are flat out better than the Seahawks. Carson Palmer has been really good and has a ton of weapons. Chris Johnson has been a revelation. And the defense is just as effective as it was last year.

Arizona 27, Seattle 24. 

Last week (Week 8): 7-6
Season: 48-22.

Week 8 Monday Night Pick

This week's Monday night game is the 3-4 Indianapolis Colts at the 6-0 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are coming off a gritty win last week against the Eagles in which they withstood three interceptions from Cam Newton to win 27-16 against a lackluster Eagles team. Meanwhile, the Colts lost a horrendous game last week to the Saints who are belatedly coming on as Drew Brees climbed out of his coffin to throw seven touchdowns this week. In losing to the Saints, the Colts were able to put up only 21 points, even though Eli Manning just threw six touchdowns on them yesterday. The line and time of the game are given for reference, and the home team is in all caps.

CAROLINA (-5.5) over Indianapolis, 8:30 ET.

I don't like this game. Carolina isn't as good as their record indicates, but the Colts actually looked better when Matt Hasselbeck was running the offense instead of Andrew Luck, which isn't as surprising as it was now that news has come out that Andrew Luck has been playing with broken ribs and the Colts (who just wanted a level playing field during the whole Deflategate mess but apparently the level playing field doesn't apply to them) didn't report it. The defense hasn't been able to stop anyone on the ground or in the air, they haven't been able to run the ball, and Andrew Luck has one of the league's worst QBR's, quarterback ratings, turnover rates, whatever you want. I've been waiting patiently for Luck to turn it around, thinking that people were overreacting to his early season swoon. Now? It's time for Luck to turn it around. ASAP. It's time for Luck to prove that he's still one of the league's premier signal-callers, and make a statement against a very good Carolina defense. And I think he will play a little better than he has been.

But it won't be enough. The Panthers have the kind of downhill backs that have ripped up the Colts in the past (see Blount, Lagarrette) in Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert, as well as the most physically imposing QB the league has ever seen in Cam Newton to run right at them, too. The Colts can't guard tight ends; Greg Olsen is playing like a top-five tight end and is the first option through the air for the Panthers. It's just not a very good match-up for the Colts. They don't have the offensive line to give Luck the kind of time to find his considerable weapons against the Carolina secondary, and that leads to a lack of a running game. The Colts don't have the synchronization on offense to win this game.

Now, this is more about what's wrong with the Colts than what I like about the Panthers. I don't think Carolina is as good as their record indicates, and I think they will have at least three losses by the end of the year. They will lose to a fuming Packers team coming off a god-awful game against the Broncos last night. They could lose to the Cowboys (returning Tony Romo), Saints, Falcons, or Giants. But for now, against the Colts who can only be described as struggling? They'll do enough to win tonight.

Carolina 27, Indianapolis 21

Week 8 NFL Picks

Let's hop into these Week 8 picks, as always, the home team is in caps and the time and line of the game are given for reference.

LONDON GAME

Kansas City (-3.5) over Detroit, 9:30 AM ET.

Nothing about this game screams "sure bet". Not only are the teams not very good, but it's in London, which always makes it unpredictable. Look for coaches Andy Reid and Jim Caldwell to try to lose this game with their clock management.

Kansas City 27, Detroit 21.


Minnesota (-1) over CHICAGO, 1:00 ET.

I think this game will be very close, but in the end the Vikings defense will hold against Jay Cutler (who's been quietly good this season and underrated). Look for a low-scorer from these two classic NFC North rivals.

Minnesota 20, Chicago 17.


ATLANTA (-7) over Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET.

Atlanta is looking to bounce back after some rough games against inferior opponents, while Tampa is probably still reeling from losing a 24-point lead in the second half against Washington last week. I just think Atlanta is a better team, and Matt Ryan is poised for his first prolific game this season (he better be since he's on my fantasy team).

Atlanta 31, Tampa Bay 24.


NY Giants over NEW ORLEANS (-3), 1:00 ET.

The Giants haven't played all that well since Week 4 when they beat up on the Bills, but this point in the season is exactly when Eli Manning explodes for four touchdowns. Also, New York's main weakness is against the run, and the Saints are more of a pass-happy team. Odell Beckham Jr. could go off this week.

New York 31, New Orleans 28.


ST. LOUIS (-8.5) over San Fransisco, 1:00 ET.

I'm afraid for Colin Kaepernick this weekend. That Rams defense is really good. They can get after the passer, and Kaepernick turns into the worst QB in the league when under pressure. The only outcome I would be surprised by is a 49ers win. I wouldn't be surprised if Kaepernick threw 6 interceptions. It's gonna be a rough day.

St. Louis 35, San Fransisco 10.


Arizona (-6) over CLEVELAND, 1:00 ET.

This would be a perfect time to pick against Arizona; they struggled with an inferior Baltimore team last week, just like they've struggled against lesser opponents all season, short week, road game John Brown gimpy... But they're playing the Browns. Oh well.

Arizona 31, Cleveland 21.


PITTSBURGH (PK) over Cincinnati, 1:00 ET.

Big Ben is back! Yep, the Steelers' savior has returned to get Pittsburgh into that second wild card spot, and it begins today against the Bengals. Did you really think Cincy was good enough to go undefeated?

Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 28.


San Diego over BALTIMORE (-3.5), 1:00 ET.

I'm basing this pick entirely on two things: 1) The Chargers are actually better off playing on the road because their fans care so little that the fans of the opposing team actually make up more than half of the people in the stands, and 2) you can throw on the Ravens and Philip Rivers threw for 500 yards a few weeks ago. Plus, I hate Baltimore.

San Diego 28, Baltimore 24.


Tennessee over HOUSTON (-4), 1:00 ET.

I know Marcus Mariota is out for the second straight game, but listen; the Texans are the worst team in football. They really are, and the difference between a good rookie QB and an average second year QB won't be enough of a difference to change that.

Tennessee 17, Houston 13.


OAKLAND over NY Jets (-3), 4:05 ET.

Yes, the Jets have a really, really good defense, but I don't like their vibe after that Pats game two weeks ago. Something tells me that they're just off, because they should've won that game. I think they've been thinking about that game for two weeks, not focusing on the precocious Raiders. It's time for this young Oakland squad to make a statement win.

Oakland 27, New York 24.


Seattle (-5) over DALLAS, 4:25 ET.

So Dez Bryant is back. Big whoop. All it means is that he's going to re-injure himself because he came back early and my fantasy team will be screwed all over again. Seattle ain't losing to a back-up QB, and it won't be close.

Seattle 35, Dallas 13.


Green Bay (-2.5) over DENVER, 8:30 ET.

Green Bay's defense is young, swarming, and gets a lot of turnovers. I think this might be the night when Peyton Manning throws five INT's and loses the game by himself, followed by a week of dopey ESPN on-air discussions of "Is Peyton done?", followed by Denver's defense throttling Indy the next week so that every commentator feels it's safe to act as though Manning is still an elite QB again. I got Rodgers and the Pack.

Green Bay 26, Denver 20.

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 41-16.