Thursday, June 25, 2015

2015 Mock NBA Draft First Round

This year's NBA draft is possibly even more interesting than last year's. The 2014 had the depth and star power to become one of the best drafts in recent years, but some injuries (Jabari Parker, Julius Randle) and general ineffectiveness put a damper on the Class of 2014's first year. That isn't to say it won't end up becoming a very good draft over the next few years; we don't judge players on just one year, especially not their rookie year, Andrew Wiggins performed admirably to earn Rookie of the Year.
That being said, I do hope the Class of 2015 has a better collective first year than last year's class. There are a number of good players, awesome personalities, and intriguing team fits and subplots going on here. For example, will the Knicks trade the fourth pick? And if so, who will they trade with? Who will take a chance on Kristaps Porzingis? Will the Kings trade Demarcus Cousins, the sixth pick, both, or neither? Where will Willie Trill Cauley-Stein be picked? And can Justise Winslow please end up in Denver to be paired with the incomparable Jusuf Nurkic? Let's jump in.

NOTE: This is what I think the teams SHOULD do (what I think probably will happen is a tie-breaker), and we're operating as though no one will trade their pick. I think there will be at least one trade on or before Thursday night, but I can't assume which will happen. I'll add trade implications into my little summaries.

1) MINNESOTA: Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Kentucky, Freshman, 6'11, 250.
This is pretty much a foregone conclusion. The Wolves have informed Towns that they'll be drafting him first. It's the right pick. Towns has no visible holes: he's strong, he can finish inside, shoot out to three point range, get rebounds, protect the rim. And by all accounts, he's a great kid and teammate who won't have a problem playing in Minnesota. He's the whole package. I wish we could have one draft where we didn't know who was going first, though. It would make the days leading up to the draft much more interesting, because not knowing who's going first can completely change the rest of the draft, based on team fit. Oh well.

2) LA LAKERS: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke, Freshman, 6'11, 270.
I'm not a huge fan of Okafor's, but he will be able to do one thing very well from the jump in the NBA: score in the post. This guy has incredible footwork around the basket, and he's the most polished post scorer in the draft since Tim Duncan. He will struggle with defense and defensive rebounding. He especially needs to work on his pick-and-roll defense. He just doesn't have the lateral quickness, and he'll get destroyed in the NBA if he doesn't get in better shape. As long as the Lakers have confidence in Jordan Clarkson at PG, this is the pick. But they better have confidence in him, because…

3) PHILADELPHIA: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State, Freshman, 6'5, 180.
I think Russell has the potential to be the best player from this draft when all's said and done. He has amazing handles, as we saw in the NCAA tournament against VCU. He can shoot and finish well around the rim. But what puts him over the top is his passing. He finds angles other guys just don't see and his size at PG allows him to see over the defense. Russell has the necessary swagger to excel in the NBA, too. Apparently he wears #0 because that's how many people have been able to guard him. He's not a great athlete, and that will hamper him against the super athletic, super aggressive defenders out there (the Tony Allens of the world). I know he'll work hard to gain strength and athleticism when he has an NBA training regimen, because this guy has that will to be great.

4) NEW YORK: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China, Age 19, 6'5, 190.
The tragic story of the New York Knicks continues. After making their fans suffer through most of a season with the worst record in the league, the Knicks won just enough games at the end to take themselves out of pole position for the first pick. They were rewarded with the fourth pick, an unfathomable disappointment for one of the most tortured fan bases in recent sports history. I think the Knicks will trade this pick (hopefully to my Boston Celtics), but according to my rules I have to pick someone. I'm excited to see Mudiay play, a big, athletic, pass-first PG who played a year professionally in China instead of going to SMU for his freshman year. He has all the tools to become a good guard in this league and he would live to set up Carmelo Anthony if the Knicks did draft him. I just think the Knicks are trading this pick, maybe to the Suns for Eric Bledsoe according to Sporting News.

5) ORLANDO: Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, Latvia, Age 19, 7'1, 230 lbs.
This is very risky for Orlando, but they need shooting and rim protection and Porzingis could provide both. Porzingis has shot up the draft boards in recent weeks, but I'm not so sure he should be. This is the same thing that happened with Darko Milicic in 2003 and we all know how that turned out. Plus Porzingis faces the same questions that plagued Darko; he's not tough enough and he's too skinny. Those things hurt Darko's defense and rebounding and he ended up losing all his confidence. That loss of confidence hurt his offense and he drifted around as a benchwarmer until he fell out of the league. Let's hope the same doesn't happen to Porzingis. If Orlando is wary of the same thing, look for them to take our next pick.

6) SACRAMENTO: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke, 6'6, 225 lbs.
I LOVE Justise Winslow. He's the Russell Westbrook of this draft. Yeah he's not super polished offensively and maybe he doesn't really have a position. But the guy COMPETES. He will be a great defender and he will always go 110%. He's shown flashes offensively, shooting really well in the NCAA tournament when he blossomed into a star. He's really good at pulling down a rebound, taking off, and finishing at the rim. He's strong, he's quick, he gets up. Sacramento needs a high character, high motor guy like Winslow to play defense at the wing, especially since they might be trading Rudy Gay. This is the pick Sacramento needs to make if Orlando doesn't take Winslow.

7) DENVER: Mario Hezonja, SG, Croatia, Age 20, 6'8, 201 lbs.
I think Hezonja could be better than Porzingis. He has struggled with character issues, like pouting when he doesn't get the ball, and he makes a lot of bad decisions with the ball. He didn't start on a very talented Barcelona team. But Denver needs any player at any position, and Hezonja has the talent to become a star. He's tall for a guard at 6'8, very long and athletic. He can shoot, slash, and finish at the rim. He's a capable passer when he shares the ball. He isn't a great defender but it's mostly technical stuff that can be fixed with work at an NBA level. He could become an even more athletic Klay Thompson, probably a worse defender.

8) DETROIT: Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona, Freshman, 6'7, 245
Stanley Johnson is riding under everyone's radar. Johnson packs a wallop in a 6'7 frame, and he's a bulldog defender. He's not a very creative offensive player, but his shooting proved better than expected in one year at Arizona. Detroit needs a small forward for the future and they need a good character guy who can play defense on the wing. If you're still not sold, let me put it this way: Stanley Johnson is the only guy in this draft who would have had a chance guarding LeBron James this year. 'Nuff said.

9) CHARLOTTE: Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky, Freshman, 6'6, 206.
The sweet shooting Booker is the perfect fit for the shooting starved Hornets. Booker has the ability to become a very well-rounded offensive guard with decent defensive potential to pair with Kemba Walker. And with the Hornets having just traded Lance Stephenson, the SG position is open in Charlotte.

10) MIAMI: Kelly Oubre, SF/SG, Kansas, Freshman, 6'7, 200.
Oubre has a ways to go, but that could be a good thing for a Miami team that could very well be losing Dwyane Wade. There has been speculation, fueled by talk of contract spats and Instagram pictures of Wade's father wearing Cavs shirts, that Wade could be joining his buddy LeBron in Cleveland. That would leave Miami with a need on the wing, and even if Wade decides to stay, they need athleticism at the wing. Oubre is really raw, doesn't have good ball skills or decision making, struggles to keep his mind focused on defense, and a jump shot that can look really bad depending on his release. But he's really athletic, really long, and he has the potential (if he works hard) to become a very good two way player.

11) INDIANA: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky, Junior, 7'0, 240.
My hero Larry Bird, president of the Pacers, has said he wants his team playing faster this year. That doesn't bode well for incumbent starting center Roy Hibbert. Hibbert is a behemoth (7'2, 290), which is great for verticality and protecting the rim, not so great for uptempo. Cauley-Stein can run in the open floor, fly high above and finish at the rim, and could become the best rim protector in the league in a few years. Cauley-Stein is a steal here.

12) UTAH: Myles Turner, C/PF, Texas, Freshman, 6'11, 240.
Turner had a rough freshman year being misused under Rick Barnes. He has a long way to develop his body to become totally NBA ready. But this is a guy who could become the poor man's Towns; a big man capable of playing inside and outside on offense and terrorizing around the rim on defense. He was thought of as a top five prospect coming out of high school a year ago, and I don't think the Jazz can pass up solidifying their front court here even if their biggest need is at the wing.

13) PHOENIX: Frank Kaminsky, C/PF, Wisconsin, Senior, 7'0, 234
The Suns haven't been the same team since Channing Frye left in free agency. That may sound surprising, because it's Channing Frye, but Frye provided the kind of spacing and passing from a big that allowed Phoenix to operate at warp speed two seasons ago when they nearly made the playoffs in the West even with significant injuries. Kaminsky is basically a better version of Frye with a post game and good defensive footwork even if he's not a good defender. This is the perfect fit.

14) OKLAHOMA CITY: R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State, Junior, 6'6, 190
Oklahoma City needs a shooter ready to step in and give them something right away as a rookie with Kevin Durant's contract in its last year and Westbrook's coming to an end soon. Hunter is one of the best shooters in the draft and he proved that he isn't afraid of a big stage
In the NCAA tournament.

15) ATLANTA: Trey Lyles, F, Kentucky, Freshman, 6'10, 235.
Lyles underachieved last season, but should do better without the shadow of such a talented Kentucky front court hanging over him. Atlanta could be losing Paul Millsap, Demarre Caroll, or both this offseason so they need to invest in the forward spot. Lyles has lottery talent and a quiet personality that fits in Atlanta.

16) BOSTON: Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin, Junior, 6'9, 220.
And so we come to my Boston Celtics. I honestly don't even think this will happen, I think (and hope) that the Celtics package their many picks and move up to take either Willie Trill Cauley-Stein or Justise Winslow. However the rules state I have to make a pick according to the draft order, and the Celts need a two way wing like Dekker. If not Dekker potentially look for Bobby Portis here.

17) MILWAUKEE: Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas, Sophomore, 6'11, 240.
Portis is good in every area of the game, and could become a very solid stretch four in the league. The Bucks need big man depth that can shoot and play defense around the rim and Portis could do both. 

18) HOUSTON: Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State, Freshman, 6'2, 183.
Houston needs a back-up point guard, something they struggled without when Patrick Beverly was injured and Jason Terry started in the playoffs for Houston. Payne has been shooting up the draft boards, noted for his feel for the game and scoring ability. He's a capable shooter from outside, ever important to Daryl Morey, and he can take the playmaking pressure off of James Harden.

19) WASHINGTON: Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA, Freshman, 6'9, 220.
Looney is a tremendous athlete who competes on the boards. Washington needs a big who can rebound and space the floor, and Looney showed signs from behind the college three-point line. If the Wizards can work with him, he could provide exactly what Washington needs.

20) TORONTO: Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia, Junior, 6'6, 227.
With Terrence Ross' regression last year and the very possible parting of ways with Demar Derozan probably opting out of his contract after next season, Toronto needs some wing depth. This is great value for Anderson who will almost certainly be a good defender in the Association, and he shot it well enough to dub him as a possibility for the new NBA buzzword: 3-&-D (threes and defense).

21) DALLAS: Tyus Jones, PG, Duke, Freshman, 6'1, 190.
In their search for a quality point guard since Jason Kidd, the Mavs hit rock bottom last year with Rajon Rondo. He shot horridly, argued with coach Rick Carlisle, and generally dragged the locker room down. Now that Rondo's off to free agency, the Mavs will once again resume their search for a PG. Jones is a reliable playmaker and shooter. He won't turn the ball over. His athleticism won't blow you away, but he relies on his smarts to excel. I'm honestly dreading the day when the Spurs sign him for cheap and he hits 8-12 huge clutch shots for them.

22) CHICAGO: Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame, Senior, 6'5, 202.
Chicago is also in need of a playmaker, to carry on their tradition of having very good back-up PG's who get put in the limelight when Derrick Rose is injured. Grant is one of the bestplaymakers in the draft and a very good value at number 22.

23) PORTLAND: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona, Sophomore, 6'6, 220.
I'm sure Portland would love to have Looney as a replacement for potentially departing LaMarcus Aldridge, and if he falls to here they'd definitely take him. If he's unavailable, look for Portland to fill in their needs for a wing defender. Hollis-Jefferson's ability to defend at an elite level is undeniable.

24) CLEVELAND: Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV, Freshman, 6'6, 210.
The loss of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love revealed something about the Cavaliers; they don't have enough shooters off the bench, specifically on the wing. J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert both shot awfully in the Finals, and they could both leave in free agency. Vaughn has shown good overall offensive ability and defensive potential, and could help the Cavs make another Finals run next year.

25) MEMPHIS: Anthony Brown, SF, Stanford, Senior, 6'7, 211.
The main thing Memphis has struggled with while contending the last few years has been jump shooting. Brown isn't the highest rated player, and this might be a reach for him, but he absolutely shot the lights out at Stanford last year, shooting 44.1% from three. He knows what his role is and could be the one to fill that need for the Grizz.    

26) SAN ANTONIO: Delon Wright, PG, Utah, Senior, 6'5, 190.
With Tony Parker's career appearing to wind down, the Spurs need to start targeting his replacement. Patty Mills is a good role player, but he isn't a starting PG. Wright has the athleticism and playmaking ability to be the guy that sets up Kawhi Leonard for years to come.

27) LA LAKERS: Terry Rozier, G, Louisville, Sophomore, 6'1, 190.
If the Lakers don't take Russell, they will need a guard. Rozier has neither the distributing ability to play point, nor the size to truly play SG, but he is athletic and a capable scorer. If LA does make this pick, look for units where Rozier is the scorer on offense and guards the PG on defense, while the Lakers employ Jordan Clarkson's size and playmaking to run point and guard the opposing two-guard.

28) BOSTON: Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas, Freshman, 6'8, 240.
A year ago, Alexander was a top recruit and thought to be a lottery pick in this draft. He had a tough season at Kansas, but his physicality and shot blocking make him a possible steal this late in the first round. Be wary of Boston packaging this pick with others to move up.

29) BROOKLYN: Jarell Martin, PF/SF, LSU, Sophomore, 6'10, 239.
Martin's NBA comparison is Thaddeus Young, the Nets forward who could be leaving in free agency next month. Look for Brooklyn to replace Young with Martin, a player who can face up and shoot, drive, run the floor, etc. He needs to improve his post game, but he has time.

30 GOLDEN STATE: Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse, Freshman, 6'10, 212.
McCullough is another ideal fit in this draft. His length, athleticism, and shooting ability at the four fit in perfectly with Golden State's uptempo, uber-flexible philosophy. Plus, it would appear that David Lee will be leaving the Warriors, and Draymond Green could also be gone in free agency, so depth at the four is a "need" for the reigning NBA champions.     

Thursday, June 11, 2015

NBA Finals Thoughts Through Three Games; Plus Game Four Prediction

A few thoughts on the emotional, psychological, and intellectual roller coaster that has been the 2015 NBA Finals (and I'm not even a fan of either team)...


  • The best word I've heard to describe LeBron James' performance is "herculean". He is the Hercules of the NBA. The workload that he has to take on as essentially the entire Cleveland offense is staggering. I honestly have no idea how he's doing it, even with these awesome insights from Ken Berger over at CBS Sports (http://www.cbssports.com/nba/writer/ken-berger/25210929/what-trainer-does-to-get-a-spent-lebron-james-from-one-herculean-effort-to-next) I mean, look at all that he has to do just to get ready for the next game. He is Cleveland's entire offense, he has to do everything for them if they're going to stay afloat in this series against this Warriors team. Just look at his averages: 41 PPG, 47 minutes, 36 FGA, 13 FTA, 12 REB, 8 AST. Yes, I know he isn't shooting very efficiently, almost terribly for his lofty standards, but this is the only way the Cavs can win. And that's all that matters to LeBron; winning the chip for Cleveland. They're well on their way to doing just that, with LeBron leading the way. If he continues his level of play and the Cavs beat this great Golden State team, this has to go down as a top five Finals performance ever. I don't care about his shooting inefficiencies. It's been incredible to see him put his team on his back and lead them to the promised land.
  • How is it possible that LeBron is leading a team with almost no playoff experience, missing two All-Star caliber players, with Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith seeming to try to throw games away to Golden State, and Matthew Dellavedova as his sidekick? Against a 67-win team! Stealing one (and almost two) in Oracle Arena where the Warriors lost twice in the regular season! Unbelievable.
  • Matthew Dellavedova is a GOD. He's my new hero, and on a team full of lovable, quirky players, he's supplanted Tristan Thompson as my favorite Cavalier. The guy just has no fear. He's not afraid of Stephen Curry, he's not afraid of ugly, stumbling, and-one floaters, he's not afraid of taking Draymond Green's legs out. Of course he's not fully responsible for Curry's lackluster performances in games 2 and most of 3. The Cavs have done an excellent job of pushing Curry out on the pick-and-roll with a big man, then recovering and making plays in the lane to force missed shots or turnovers once Golden State tries to go 4-on-3. They've also done a great job of shading off-ball picks for Curry to allow Dellavedova to recover when he needs to. Cleveland's defense has been swarming and has out-worked Golden State through three games, even outside of Dellavedova. But it all starts with Delly. His scrappiness and hustle is absorbed by everyone on the court, it lights a fire under his teammates and confounds his opponents. He just works so hard, and it's great to see a player like that play well.
  • That being said,  he shouldn't be able to do a thing with Curry. Curry is just too good to not figure out Cleveland's defense at some point. We saw it a little bit at the end of Game 3, I expect to see it more often as the series moves on and Delly (and everyone else on Cleveland) has to deal with the fatigue of playing on a team that consistently plays seven players. The Cavs will wear down, and Golden State will take advantage.
  • Curry's struggles so far haven't been all about him. His teammates need to play better, specifically Green and Harrison Barnes. A consistent component of Golden State's offense this season has been Green catching from Curry on those high pick-and-rolls and attacking 4-on-3 to get himself a layup, a lob to Bogut, or a corner three for Barnes. Barnes has been shooting dreadfully, and Timofey Mozgov has done a great job going vertical to stuff Green at the rim. Green needs to find his confidence in his three point shot, as does Barnes.
  • Stephen Curry is COMING in Game 4. Don't say I didn't warn you Cleveland.
  • The Warriors need to throw some doubles at LeBron. Not all the time, just switch it up on him, give him a few different looks. Yes, he has the ability to pick a defense apart passing, but I'd much rather have Iman Shumpert tossing up threes than LeBron getting to the rim time after time and a) finishing at the rim b) drawing a foul c) sucking the defense in and then kicking out for a much more open three than when the defense is set d) getting those close range misses rebounded by Mozgov and Thompson. Those two have been beasts from the start of this series on the offensive glass, and if GSW allows LeBron to hold the ball for 20 seconds and destroy them in all the ways detailed above, Cleveland controls the pace and doesn't let GSW get a rhythm going. The Warriors are best in a fast tempo, quick hitting game where they force turnovers and get out for easy buckets. That';s when their jumpers start to fall, Curry pulls some craziness with the ball, and they become unstoppable. But they can't get to that point because they're allowing LeBron to dictate the flow. Make someone else beat you, like what the Cavs are doing to Curry.

GAME 4

Cavaliers 97, Warriors 102

I'm sticking to my original pick, Warriors in 7. I just think Curry got his rhythm back a little too much and figured out the Cavs defense at the end of that last game. Steve Kerr is going to find ways to make things easier for Curry and Klay Thompson, and figure out a better way to deal with LeBron.A team of six can only hold off a team of ten for so long. But hey, long live Delly.