Week 16 NFL Picks

We're coming down the stretch of this NFL season and there are a lot of story lines flying around. Will the Panthers go undefeated? Can the Patriots overcome all the debilitating injuries? Is Cincinnati finally ready to play under the lights? What's going on with the quarterback situation in Denver? Is Seattle actually the team to beat in the NFC? How many division winners will lose in the first round to the stacked wild card teams of Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle, and Minnesota? Can the Packers find their way on offense? All of these questions hover over this week's games and will affect how they play out. Home team is in all caps and the line and time are given for reference.


Chicago over TAMPA BAY (-3), 1:00 ET.

Tough game to call. As the line indicates, the teams are relatively equal, and neither has any hope of making the playoffs. Kirk Cousins and Washington proved earlier this season that a competent QB with weapons can tear the Tampa defense apart, and Jay Cutler has been quietly good this season. Plus, it seems like the most Bears thing to win this meaningless game and hurt their position in the draft.

Chicago 27, Tampa Bay 24.


Carolina (-6.5) over ATLANTA, 1:00 ET.

Like I said last week, I'm done picking against Carolina. I'll take it when they lose, but until then I'm not picking against them, especially not against the fraudulent Falcons. Matt Ryan has been an absolute disappointment this year, turning it over too much, not throwing enough touchdowns, and the defense isn't good either. Carolina just destroyed Atlanta 38-0 two weeks ago, so I'm fairly confident in this pick.

Carolina 35, Atlanta 14.


BUFFALO (-6.5) over Dallas, 1:00 ET.

Neither of these teams are making the playoffs, so I just look at this game as a chance for the frustrated Bills to beat up on the crappy Cowboys. The Bills didn't live up to expectations this year, after bringing in LeSean McCoy and Rex Ryan in the offseason. There was a lot of hype, and now they're 6-8. However, they're a lot more healthy than the Cowboys, and I think the Bills will take out their anger on the helpless Cowboys.

Buffalo 31, Dallas 10.


DETROIT (-9.5) over San Fransisco, 1:00 ET.

Detroit is just a better team than the 49ers. The offense is going to rip the 49ers defense apart just like they did to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, the defense is most likely going to stuff the 49ers offense and create a turnover or two, and the Lions are going to head home with a W.

Detroit 31, San Fransisco 17.


KANSAS CITY (-11.5) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Kansas City is red hot, right there with Pittsburgh and Seattle as dangerous Wild Card teams that no one wants to play. They're moving the ball even without Jamaal Charles, but the key has been their defense. They're stopping running backs at the line, staying with receivers in coverage, and especially getting to the QB. I'm very happy as a Patriots fan that we have a first round bye so we don't have to play either Kansas City or Pittsburgh in the first round.

Kansas City 28, Cleveland 10.


Indianapolis over MIAMI (-2), 1:00 ET.

I'm basing this solely on the fact that Indy still has something to play for. Houston is only a game ahead of Indy in the AFC South, so if Indy wins and Houston loses, it's all knotted up. Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven't looked like they had anything to play for for two months. They just aren't motivated, and I think the possibility of that AFC South crown on the horizon pushes the Colts to a win.

Indianapolis 20, Miami 17.


Houston (-4) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

At the same time, I don't think that Houston will lose to Tennessee. Tennessee is really bad, Houston is average, and Houston actually has something to play for. It's as simple as that.

Houston 24, Tennessee 17.


Pittsburgh (-10.5) over BALTIMORE, 1:00 ET.

Like I've said, Pittsburgh is really dangerous. Nobody in the league can match their weapons offensively (even without Le'Veon Bell), and there aren't five QB's in the league better than Ben Rothlisberger. This week is a nice, easy, confidence-builder game for them against the lowly, wounded Ravens. This one could get ugly, and not in the way this rivalry usually gets ugly.

Pittsburgh 35, Baltimore 14.


NY JETS over New England (-2), 1:00 ET.

I would pick New England if we had Julian Edelman. Or Danny Amendola, for that matter. But I can't pick them when Brandon LaFell is who you have to rely on for production from the outside. He's really good as a third option, not so much as a first. Besides that, both the Pats' starting safeties, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung, are out, which is a problem when you're going up against Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Seeing as how the last time these teams played Brady threw 90%of the Patriots' snaps, and assuming this time will be similar because of the absence of Lagarrete Blount, I just need more weapons for Brady to target to pick them.

New York 27, New England 24.

Jacksonville over NEW ORLEANS (-2.5), 4:05 ET.

Jacksonville has a lot of weapons that Blake Bortles used well for a while this season, but they struggled last week against the Falcons for... some reason. I think they'll bounce back this week purely because they're playing the Saints who have a terrible secondary and defense overall. Look for a shootout in this one.

Jacksonville 31, New Orleans 28.


ARIZONA (-5.5) over Green Bay, 4:25 ET.

I've seen enough from this Green Bay offense. I would go as far to say that they're non-contenders this year. I would pick the Panthers, Cardinals, and Seahawks over them at this point. The receivers just can't get open. That's why I think this Arizona defense is salivating over the chance to knock Aaron Rodgers' head off, and by the way, Carson Palmer is an MVP candidate. He has a lot of weapons out at Arizona, and I see him using them against Green Bay.

Arizona 31, Green Bay 24.


SEATTLE (-12) over St. Louis, 4:25 ET.

Seattle is back to being Seattle again. The defense is stifling, at least. They're doing it very differently on offense, however. Without Marshawn Lynch for much of the season and just losing Thomas Rawls, the ball has been placed in the hands of Russell Wilson to not only run and make plays outside of the pocket, but stand in the pocket and deliver the ball. And it's worked splendidly for Seattle as Wilson has thrown for 3, 5, 3, 5, and 3 touchdowns respectively the last five games with no interceptions. Seattle is very scary heading into the playoffs.

Seattle 31, St. Louis 17.


MINNESOTA (-7) over NY Giants, 8:30 ET.

Here's what it comes down to; the Vikings still have something to play for. They could still win the division (with help from the Packers) and there is a scenario where I the Falcons could take a wild card spot. Honestly, I would pick the Vikings here, anyway. They're at home, in the cold, with a defense that could take advantage of Eli Manning's ever looming turnover issues. Plus, Odell Beckham Jr. isn't suiting up for the Giants because of his one-game suspension- the result of his antics last week with Panthers CB Josh Norman. I just don't see the Giants pulling this one out when they have less motivation to do so.


Last Week: 11-2
Season: 75-38

Week 15 NFL Picks

MINNESOTA (-4.5) over Chicago, 1:00 ET.

I like Chicago more than most, but it seems like the Vikings will be desperate this week. They've lost the lead in the division and have had to some tough losses against really good teams. That defense will stand up and make enough plays against this good Bears offense to pull out the win.

Minnesota 24, Chicago 21.


JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Atlanta, 1:00 ET.

Jacksonville isn't all that bad. They have good young weapons, Blake Bortles is coming into his own. The Falcons are absolutely reeling and they can't keep the Jags off the scoreboard. Look, Jacksonville actually has a chance at the AFC South title. They're one game back, and one of the two of Indy and Houston will lose because they're playing each other. By this time Monday morning, the Jaguars will be tied for second in the division.

Jacksonville 28, Atlanta 24.


Houston over INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5), 1:00 ET.

Charlie Whitehurst might start this game for Indy. CHARLIE WHITEHURST!!!! Are you kidding me? That guy is going to beat J.J. Watt, the emerging Jadeveon Clowney, and the rest of that Texans defense? Deandre Hopkins is going to go another week without aking an impact? Come on. Why are the Colts even favored? They have no way of moving the ball!

Houston 20, Indianapolis 14.


KANSAS CITY (-7) over Baltimore, 1:00 ET.

The Chiefs are on a mission right now. The defense is playing incredibly well, and Alex Smith is actually using his wide receivers, playing some very nice football. They're moving the ball on offense, and stopping the ball on defense. Baltimore... Baltimore's a train wreck. They've been ravaged by injuries. It's very unfortunate, but I think it's karma for the whole "we employ wife-beaters and murderers and generally awful people" thing. So I won't shed a tear for them.

Kansas City 31, Baltimore 20.


WASHINGTON over Buffalo (-2), 1:00 ET.

So the Bills are 5 points better than Washington on a neutral field? Didn't the Bills just lose to the Eagles for no particular reason? What am I missing? Why do people think the Bills are really good? Are they enamored with Tyrod Taylor? I don't really get it. Washington needs this game, with the Giants playing Carolina and Philly playing Arizona, to move ahead in the division. Kirk Cousins is playing some very good football as of late, and the Washington defense is pretty nice.

Washington 27, Buffalo 24.


NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Tennessee, 1:00 ET.

The Patriots are a completely different team when Gronkowski plays. You could see it last week against the Texans; he opened up the field for the running game, for Amendola, and for LaFell. Even though he played fewer snaps than usual, you could see the impact he has on the game, the way he makes so many things possible for the Pats, and that's why it's so hard as a Pats fan to watch these safeties go after his knees each week. For now he's back, so I'm taking the Pats.

New England 31, Tennessee 17.


Carolina (-5) over NY GIANTS, 1:00 ET.

I wanted to pick the Giants for this game. As we all know, the Giants have a history of ruining streaks and undefeated seasons (sigh), and they always elevate their game against good teams. I expect nothing less than a fantastic game fro these two teams. But I'm not picking against Carolina until they prove to me that they can lose. Cam Newton has made it a legitimate battle for MVP with Tom Brady, and he's playing at a level we always wanted to see from him. I have to roll with Carolina.

Carolina 28, New York 27.


SEATTLE (-14.5) over Cleveland, 4:05 ET.

Seattle is coming on strong in recent weeks, which is about the least surprising development as we transition to the end of the season. I'll take them at home over Cleveland.

Seattle 35, Cleveland 14.


Green Bay (-4) over OAKLAND, 4:05 ET.

It was fun while it lasted with Oakland, and they should be a contender in the upcoming years if they can, but now they're running up on the Packers. Aaron Rodgers doesn't generally lose games in December, especially to the Raiders. That Packer defense has been playing well, I think they'll force some turnovers against the young David Carr.

Green Bay 31, Oakland 24.


Miami over SAN DIEGO (-2), 4:25 ET.

What a crappy game. FYI, the Chargers should never get points because they're playing at home, since they have about the opposite of a home field advantage. I don't know what's going to happen in this game, but I do know one thing; I wouldn't watch this game even if I did have NFL Sunday Ticket.

Miami 24, San Diego 20.


PITTSBURGH (-7) over Denver, 4:25 ET.

Pittsburgh needs this game to improve their spot in the standings, I think they'll play hungry, motivated. Look for a great game from Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant. I like Brock Osweiler, but I'm not sure he can take enough advantage of the Steelers atrocious secondary to keep up with Big Ben and the Steelers weapons.

Pittsburgh 31, Denver 27.


Cincinnati (-6.5) over SAN FRANSISCO, 4:25 ET.

This is a nice little match-up for the Bengals to beat up on San Fran before taking on Denver in a huge game next week. This could be a nice tune-up for AJ McCarron to gain some confidence in case he has to start that Denver game in place of Andy Dalton. This one's pretty much a foregone conclusion.

Cincinnati 35, San Fransisco 13.


Arizona (-4) over PHILADELPHIA, 8:30 ET.

Arizona and Seattle are the only teams in the NFC that I think could beat the Panthers. That's high praise. The Cardinals are really good. Carson Palmer is operating at the same level as Brady, Newton, and Russell right now, taking advantage of his many weapons. The defense is just as good as it was last year, maybe even better. Meanwhile, I'm starting to come around on the Eagles, but not enough to believe in them against this Cardinals team.

Arizona 35, Philadelphia 24.

Last Week: 9-6
Season: 64-36

Week 14 NFL Picks

Sorry for missing the last few weeks. I guess I'll just have to make these picks extra good to compensate. As always, the home team is in all caps and the time (ET) and line are given for reference.

Pittsburgh over CINCINATTI (-2.5), 1:00.

This will be the game where we definitively learn if the Bengals are legit or not. December, at home, divisional opponent, real stakes on the line... This is the game the Bengals usually lose. If they win, I will officially be behind them as a contender. But I'm going to roll with the Steelers, because they're desperate, and they didn't have all their weapons in that early season loss to the Bengals. This feels like a kitchen sink game for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh 35, Cincinatti 31.


Buffalo (PK) over PHILADELPHIA, 1:00.

The Bills aren't bad now that they have Tyrod Taylor back. THey could make a legit run at the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a huge win over my Patriots in Foxburo last week. Even though they beat my team, I'm still not convinced about Philly. That was one of the luckiest wins ever. Look out Eagles- here comes the LeSean McCoy revenge game.

Buffalo 28, Philadelphia 21.


CAROLINA (-8) over Atlanta, 1:00.

I'm done picking against Carolina. They're really good, and while I still don't think they're as good as their record indicates, I'm definitely picking them against the Falcons, who started 5-0, then proceeded to lose 6 of their next 7. They just aren't good enough to hold up against the Panthers balanced system.

Carolina 31, Atlanta 24.


San Fransisco over CLEVELAND (-1.5), 1:00.

What a crappy game. I'm picking the 49ers solely because they beat the Bears last week (who are better than everyone thinks) as Blaine Gabbert led two huge scoring drives at the end of the fourth quarter and the winner in overtime. I wouldn't bet on this game, but I have to pick it so...

San Fransisco 21, Cleveland 17.


Washington over CHICAGO (-3.5), 1:00.

This doesn't look very good after what I said about the Bears in the last pick, but there isn't much hope for the Bears to make the playoffs, so they don't really have much to fight for. Washington, meanwhile, is still in the hunt in the putrid NFC East as one of three teams leading the division at 5-7. They do have something to fight for, especially with the thought of the Giants' easy Monday night match-up with the Dolphins. This might be a must-win for the Washington professional football team.

Washington 24, Chicago 21.


Detroit (-3) over ST. LOUIS, 1:00.

Detroit has had 10 days to bounce back from that horrifying loss to the Packers that ended with an Aaaron Rodgers successful Hail Mary as time ran out. I think they'll look more like the Lions from the first half of that game as well as the Thanksgiving shellacking of the Eagles. The Rams ave given up. Their defense isn't the same as it was earlier in the season, and they have no way of throwing the ball because of the QB situation.

Detroit 31, St. Louis 21.


KANSAS CITY (-11) over San Diego, 1:00.

The Chiefs are on an absolute roll right now. They've won their last six games, a span in which they haven't allowed over 22 points. They're also finding ways to move the ball without Jamaal Charles in the backfield. I say the roll will continue against the disappointing Chargers.

Kansas City 35, San Diego 24.


TAMPA BAY (-5) over New Orleans, 1:00.

The Bucs aren't bad. After some unsurprising turnover issues early in the season, Jameis Winston has been awfully good, and the Bucaneers can move the ball with Doug Martin on the ground as well. That Saints defense won't be able to hold up against Tampa Bay's playmakers for an entire game.

Tampa Bay 28, New Orleans 24.


JACKSONVILLE (-2) over Indianapolis, 1:00.

It's all fun and games having a 40-year-old quarterback who seems to be doing well. But now we're at the time of year where you're a little more sore, a little more banged up. I think Matt Hasselbeck is feeling the effects.  don't think he can outgun a Jaguars offense that can explode at any time, especially against this Colts defense. If he tries to put the team on his back, he'll probably have a few horrendous turnovers. If he doesn't, his running game isn't good enough to beat even the Jaguars defense anyway. I got the Jags.

Jacksonville 31, Indianapolis 24.


NY JETS (-7.5) over Tennessee, 1:00.

The Jets are still in the running for a playoff spot. They get Darrelle Revis back today, who I'm certain will scare the crap out of Marcus Mariota. The Jets' running game can pound away at the Titans' defense, opening up holes for Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to make plays outside. The Jets are just a better team.

New York 27, Tennessee 20.


Seattle (-11) over BALTIMORE, 1:00.

Well, Jimmy Clausen played the Seahawks earlier this year as a member of the Bears. He got shut out. Jimmy Clausen is starting for the Ravens. I don't like this for Jimmy Clausen, and I dont like that the Seahawks look like the Seahawks again.

Seattle 35, Baltimore 14.


DENVER (-6) over Oakland, 4:05.

Brock Osweiler (currently) is a lot better than Peyton Manning. Yeah, his stats aren't that impressive, but he avoids the crushing turnovers Manning was prone to, and he can actually keep the defense honest with the occasional long pass. And Denver defense is as strong as ever.

Denver 28, Oakland 20.


GREEN BAY (-6.5) over Dallas, 4:25.

That Hail Mary could only happen for Aaron Rodgers. Unbelievable. Now they have the dismal Cowboys at home, who somehow managed to eke out a win against Washington on Monday, even without Tony Romo. I just don't see the Packers losing this one. The Cowboys can't score.

Green Bay 27, Dallas 17.

New England (-5) over Houston, 8:30.

Okay, it's time for my boys to cut the crap. We got screwed by Goodell and the refs in Denver, and then the special teams uncharacteristically killed us against the Eagles. The Patriots aren't playing well right now, and Brady is down a few weapons. However, Gronk is going to play tonight, and hopefully that will open up the field for Brady. The Pats never lose three in a row. That's what I keep telling myself.

New England 28, Houston 21.

Last Week: 0-3 (Week 12, Thanksgiving)
Season: 55-30.