Week 16 NFL Picks

We're coming down the stretch of this NFL season and there are a lot of story lines flying around. Will the Panthers go undefeated? Can the Patriots overcome all the debilitating injuries? Is Cincinnati finally ready to play under the lights? What's going on with the quarterback situation in Denver? Is Seattle actually the team to beat in the NFC? How many division winners will lose in the first round to the stacked wild card teams of Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle, and Minnesota? Can the Packers find their way on offense? All of these questions hover over this week's games and will affect how they play out. Home team is in all caps and the line and time are given for reference.


Chicago over TAMPA BAY (-3), 1:00 ET.

Tough game to call. As the line indicates, the teams are relatively equal, and neither has any hope of making the playoffs. Kirk Cousins and Washington proved earlier this season that a competent QB with weapons can tear the Tampa defense apart, and Jay Cutler has been quietly good this season. Plus, it seems like the most Bears thing to win this meaningless game and hurt their position in the draft.

Chicago 27, Tampa Bay 24.


Carolina (-6.5) over ATLANTA, 1:00 ET.

Like I said last week, I'm done picking against Carolina. I'll take it when they lose, but until then I'm not picking against them, especially not against the fraudulent Falcons. Matt Ryan has been an absolute disappointment this year, turning it over too much, not throwing enough touchdowns, and the defense isn't good either. Carolina just destroyed Atlanta 38-0 two weeks ago, so I'm fairly confident in this pick.

Carolina 35, Atlanta 14.


BUFFALO (-6.5) over Dallas, 1:00 ET.

Neither of these teams are making the playoffs, so I just look at this game as a chance for the frustrated Bills to beat up on the crappy Cowboys. The Bills didn't live up to expectations this year, after bringing in LeSean McCoy and Rex Ryan in the offseason. There was a lot of hype, and now they're 6-8. However, they're a lot more healthy than the Cowboys, and I think the Bills will take out their anger on the helpless Cowboys.

Buffalo 31, Dallas 10.


DETROIT (-9.5) over San Fransisco, 1:00 ET.

Detroit is just a better team than the 49ers. The offense is going to rip the 49ers defense apart just like they did to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, the defense is most likely going to stuff the 49ers offense and create a turnover or two, and the Lions are going to head home with a W.

Detroit 31, San Fransisco 17.


KANSAS CITY (-11.5) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Kansas City is red hot, right there with Pittsburgh and Seattle as dangerous Wild Card teams that no one wants to play. They're moving the ball even without Jamaal Charles, but the key has been their defense. They're stopping running backs at the line, staying with receivers in coverage, and especially getting to the QB. I'm very happy as a Patriots fan that we have a first round bye so we don't have to play either Kansas City or Pittsburgh in the first round.

Kansas City 28, Cleveland 10.


Indianapolis over MIAMI (-2), 1:00 ET.

I'm basing this solely on the fact that Indy still has something to play for. Houston is only a game ahead of Indy in the AFC South, so if Indy wins and Houston loses, it's all knotted up. Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven't looked like they had anything to play for for two months. They just aren't motivated, and I think the possibility of that AFC South crown on the horizon pushes the Colts to a win.

Indianapolis 20, Miami 17.


Houston (-4) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

At the same time, I don't think that Houston will lose to Tennessee. Tennessee is really bad, Houston is average, and Houston actually has something to play for. It's as simple as that.

Houston 24, Tennessee 17.


Pittsburgh (-10.5) over BALTIMORE, 1:00 ET.

Like I've said, Pittsburgh is really dangerous. Nobody in the league can match their weapons offensively (even without Le'Veon Bell), and there aren't five QB's in the league better than Ben Rothlisberger. This week is a nice, easy, confidence-builder game for them against the lowly, wounded Ravens. This one could get ugly, and not in the way this rivalry usually gets ugly.

Pittsburgh 35, Baltimore 14.


NY JETS over New England (-2), 1:00 ET.

I would pick New England if we had Julian Edelman. Or Danny Amendola, for that matter. But I can't pick them when Brandon LaFell is who you have to rely on for production from the outside. He's really good as a third option, not so much as a first. Besides that, both the Pats' starting safeties, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung, are out, which is a problem when you're going up against Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Seeing as how the last time these teams played Brady threw 90%of the Patriots' snaps, and assuming this time will be similar because of the absence of Lagarrete Blount, I just need more weapons for Brady to target to pick them.

New York 27, New England 24.

Jacksonville over NEW ORLEANS (-2.5), 4:05 ET.

Jacksonville has a lot of weapons that Blake Bortles used well for a while this season, but they struggled last week against the Falcons for... some reason. I think they'll bounce back this week purely because they're playing the Saints who have a terrible secondary and defense overall. Look for a shootout in this one.

Jacksonville 31, New Orleans 28.


ARIZONA (-5.5) over Green Bay, 4:25 ET.

I've seen enough from this Green Bay offense. I would go as far to say that they're non-contenders this year. I would pick the Panthers, Cardinals, and Seahawks over them at this point. The receivers just can't get open. That's why I think this Arizona defense is salivating over the chance to knock Aaron Rodgers' head off, and by the way, Carson Palmer is an MVP candidate. He has a lot of weapons out at Arizona, and I see him using them against Green Bay.

Arizona 31, Green Bay 24.


SEATTLE (-12) over St. Louis, 4:25 ET.

Seattle is back to being Seattle again. The defense is stifling, at least. They're doing it very differently on offense, however. Without Marshawn Lynch for much of the season and just losing Thomas Rawls, the ball has been placed in the hands of Russell Wilson to not only run and make plays outside of the pocket, but stand in the pocket and deliver the ball. And it's worked splendidly for Seattle as Wilson has thrown for 3, 5, 3, 5, and 3 touchdowns respectively the last five games with no interceptions. Seattle is very scary heading into the playoffs.

Seattle 31, St. Louis 17.


MINNESOTA (-7) over NY Giants, 8:30 ET.

Here's what it comes down to; the Vikings still have something to play for. They could still win the division (with help from the Packers) and there is a scenario where I the Falcons could take a wild card spot. Honestly, I would pick the Vikings here, anyway. They're at home, in the cold, with a defense that could take advantage of Eli Manning's ever looming turnover issues. Plus, Odell Beckham Jr. isn't suiting up for the Giants because of his one-game suspension- the result of his antics last week with Panthers CB Josh Norman. I just don't see the Giants pulling this one out when they have less motivation to do so.


Last Week: 11-2
Season: 75-38

Week 15 NFL Picks

MINNESOTA (-4.5) over Chicago, 1:00 ET.

I like Chicago more than most, but it seems like the Vikings will be desperate this week. They've lost the lead in the division and have had to some tough losses against really good teams. That defense will stand up and make enough plays against this good Bears offense to pull out the win.

Minnesota 24, Chicago 21.


JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Atlanta, 1:00 ET.

Jacksonville isn't all that bad. They have good young weapons, Blake Bortles is coming into his own. The Falcons are absolutely reeling and they can't keep the Jags off the scoreboard. Look, Jacksonville actually has a chance at the AFC South title. They're one game back, and one of the two of Indy and Houston will lose because they're playing each other. By this time Monday morning, the Jaguars will be tied for second in the division.

Jacksonville 28, Atlanta 24.


Houston over INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5), 1:00 ET.

Charlie Whitehurst might start this game for Indy. CHARLIE WHITEHURST!!!! Are you kidding me? That guy is going to beat J.J. Watt, the emerging Jadeveon Clowney, and the rest of that Texans defense? Deandre Hopkins is going to go another week without aking an impact? Come on. Why are the Colts even favored? They have no way of moving the ball!

Houston 20, Indianapolis 14.


KANSAS CITY (-7) over Baltimore, 1:00 ET.

The Chiefs are on a mission right now. The defense is playing incredibly well, and Alex Smith is actually using his wide receivers, playing some very nice football. They're moving the ball on offense, and stopping the ball on defense. Baltimore... Baltimore's a train wreck. They've been ravaged by injuries. It's very unfortunate, but I think it's karma for the whole "we employ wife-beaters and murderers and generally awful people" thing. So I won't shed a tear for them.

Kansas City 31, Baltimore 20.


WASHINGTON over Buffalo (-2), 1:00 ET.

So the Bills are 5 points better than Washington on a neutral field? Didn't the Bills just lose to the Eagles for no particular reason? What am I missing? Why do people think the Bills are really good? Are they enamored with Tyrod Taylor? I don't really get it. Washington needs this game, with the Giants playing Carolina and Philly playing Arizona, to move ahead in the division. Kirk Cousins is playing some very good football as of late, and the Washington defense is pretty nice.

Washington 27, Buffalo 24.


NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Tennessee, 1:00 ET.

The Patriots are a completely different team when Gronkowski plays. You could see it last week against the Texans; he opened up the field for the running game, for Amendola, and for LaFell. Even though he played fewer snaps than usual, you could see the impact he has on the game, the way he makes so many things possible for the Pats, and that's why it's so hard as a Pats fan to watch these safeties go after his knees each week. For now he's back, so I'm taking the Pats.

New England 31, Tennessee 17.


Carolina (-5) over NY GIANTS, 1:00 ET.

I wanted to pick the Giants for this game. As we all know, the Giants have a history of ruining streaks and undefeated seasons (sigh), and they always elevate their game against good teams. I expect nothing less than a fantastic game fro these two teams. But I'm not picking against Carolina until they prove to me that they can lose. Cam Newton has made it a legitimate battle for MVP with Tom Brady, and he's playing at a level we always wanted to see from him. I have to roll with Carolina.

Carolina 28, New York 27.


SEATTLE (-14.5) over Cleveland, 4:05 ET.

Seattle is coming on strong in recent weeks, which is about the least surprising development as we transition to the end of the season. I'll take them at home over Cleveland.

Seattle 35, Cleveland 14.


Green Bay (-4) over OAKLAND, 4:05 ET.

It was fun while it lasted with Oakland, and they should be a contender in the upcoming years if they can, but now they're running up on the Packers. Aaron Rodgers doesn't generally lose games in December, especially to the Raiders. That Packer defense has been playing well, I think they'll force some turnovers against the young David Carr.

Green Bay 31, Oakland 24.


Miami over SAN DIEGO (-2), 4:25 ET.

What a crappy game. FYI, the Chargers should never get points because they're playing at home, since they have about the opposite of a home field advantage. I don't know what's going to happen in this game, but I do know one thing; I wouldn't watch this game even if I did have NFL Sunday Ticket.

Miami 24, San Diego 20.


PITTSBURGH (-7) over Denver, 4:25 ET.

Pittsburgh needs this game to improve their spot in the standings, I think they'll play hungry, motivated. Look for a great game from Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant. I like Brock Osweiler, but I'm not sure he can take enough advantage of the Steelers atrocious secondary to keep up with Big Ben and the Steelers weapons.

Pittsburgh 31, Denver 27.


Cincinnati (-6.5) over SAN FRANSISCO, 4:25 ET.

This is a nice little match-up for the Bengals to beat up on San Fran before taking on Denver in a huge game next week. This could be a nice tune-up for AJ McCarron to gain some confidence in case he has to start that Denver game in place of Andy Dalton. This one's pretty much a foregone conclusion.

Cincinnati 35, San Fransisco 13.


Arizona (-4) over PHILADELPHIA, 8:30 ET.

Arizona and Seattle are the only teams in the NFC that I think could beat the Panthers. That's high praise. The Cardinals are really good. Carson Palmer is operating at the same level as Brady, Newton, and Russell right now, taking advantage of his many weapons. The defense is just as good as it was last year, maybe even better. Meanwhile, I'm starting to come around on the Eagles, but not enough to believe in them against this Cardinals team.

Arizona 35, Philadelphia 24.

Last Week: 9-6
Season: 64-36

Week 14 NFL Picks

Sorry for missing the last few weeks. I guess I'll just have to make these picks extra good to compensate. As always, the home team is in all caps and the time (ET) and line are given for reference.

Pittsburgh over CINCINATTI (-2.5), 1:00.

This will be the game where we definitively learn if the Bengals are legit or not. December, at home, divisional opponent, real stakes on the line... This is the game the Bengals usually lose. If they win, I will officially be behind them as a contender. But I'm going to roll with the Steelers, because they're desperate, and they didn't have all their weapons in that early season loss to the Bengals. This feels like a kitchen sink game for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh 35, Cincinatti 31.


Buffalo (PK) over PHILADELPHIA, 1:00.

The Bills aren't bad now that they have Tyrod Taylor back. THey could make a legit run at the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a huge win over my Patriots in Foxburo last week. Even though they beat my team, I'm still not convinced about Philly. That was one of the luckiest wins ever. Look out Eagles- here comes the LeSean McCoy revenge game.

Buffalo 28, Philadelphia 21.


CAROLINA (-8) over Atlanta, 1:00.

I'm done picking against Carolina. They're really good, and while I still don't think they're as good as their record indicates, I'm definitely picking them against the Falcons, who started 5-0, then proceeded to lose 6 of their next 7. They just aren't good enough to hold up against the Panthers balanced system.

Carolina 31, Atlanta 24.


San Fransisco over CLEVELAND (-1.5), 1:00.

What a crappy game. I'm picking the 49ers solely because they beat the Bears last week (who are better than everyone thinks) as Blaine Gabbert led two huge scoring drives at the end of the fourth quarter and the winner in overtime. I wouldn't bet on this game, but I have to pick it so...

San Fransisco 21, Cleveland 17.


Washington over CHICAGO (-3.5), 1:00.

This doesn't look very good after what I said about the Bears in the last pick, but there isn't much hope for the Bears to make the playoffs, so they don't really have much to fight for. Washington, meanwhile, is still in the hunt in the putrid NFC East as one of three teams leading the division at 5-7. They do have something to fight for, especially with the thought of the Giants' easy Monday night match-up with the Dolphins. This might be a must-win for the Washington professional football team.

Washington 24, Chicago 21.


Detroit (-3) over ST. LOUIS, 1:00.

Detroit has had 10 days to bounce back from that horrifying loss to the Packers that ended with an Aaaron Rodgers successful Hail Mary as time ran out. I think they'll look more like the Lions from the first half of that game as well as the Thanksgiving shellacking of the Eagles. The Rams ave given up. Their defense isn't the same as it was earlier in the season, and they have no way of throwing the ball because of the QB situation.

Detroit 31, St. Louis 21.


KANSAS CITY (-11) over San Diego, 1:00.

The Chiefs are on an absolute roll right now. They've won their last six games, a span in which they haven't allowed over 22 points. They're also finding ways to move the ball without Jamaal Charles in the backfield. I say the roll will continue against the disappointing Chargers.

Kansas City 35, San Diego 24.


TAMPA BAY (-5) over New Orleans, 1:00.

The Bucs aren't bad. After some unsurprising turnover issues early in the season, Jameis Winston has been awfully good, and the Bucaneers can move the ball with Doug Martin on the ground as well. That Saints defense won't be able to hold up against Tampa Bay's playmakers for an entire game.

Tampa Bay 28, New Orleans 24.


JACKSONVILLE (-2) over Indianapolis, 1:00.

It's all fun and games having a 40-year-old quarterback who seems to be doing well. But now we're at the time of year where you're a little more sore, a little more banged up. I think Matt Hasselbeck is feeling the effects.  don't think he can outgun a Jaguars offense that can explode at any time, especially against this Colts defense. If he tries to put the team on his back, he'll probably have a few horrendous turnovers. If he doesn't, his running game isn't good enough to beat even the Jaguars defense anyway. I got the Jags.

Jacksonville 31, Indianapolis 24.


NY JETS (-7.5) over Tennessee, 1:00.

The Jets are still in the running for a playoff spot. They get Darrelle Revis back today, who I'm certain will scare the crap out of Marcus Mariota. The Jets' running game can pound away at the Titans' defense, opening up holes for Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to make plays outside. The Jets are just a better team.

New York 27, Tennessee 20.


Seattle (-11) over BALTIMORE, 1:00.

Well, Jimmy Clausen played the Seahawks earlier this year as a member of the Bears. He got shut out. Jimmy Clausen is starting for the Ravens. I don't like this for Jimmy Clausen, and I dont like that the Seahawks look like the Seahawks again.

Seattle 35, Baltimore 14.


DENVER (-6) over Oakland, 4:05.

Brock Osweiler (currently) is a lot better than Peyton Manning. Yeah, his stats aren't that impressive, but he avoids the crushing turnovers Manning was prone to, and he can actually keep the defense honest with the occasional long pass. And Denver defense is as strong as ever.

Denver 28, Oakland 20.


GREEN BAY (-6.5) over Dallas, 4:25.

That Hail Mary could only happen for Aaron Rodgers. Unbelievable. Now they have the dismal Cowboys at home, who somehow managed to eke out a win against Washington on Monday, even without Tony Romo. I just don't see the Packers losing this one. The Cowboys can't score.

Green Bay 27, Dallas 17.

New England (-5) over Houston, 8:30.

Okay, it's time for my boys to cut the crap. We got screwed by Goodell and the refs in Denver, and then the special teams uncharacteristically killed us against the Eagles. The Patriots aren't playing well right now, and Brady is down a few weapons. However, Gronk is going to play tonight, and hopefully that will open up the field for Brady. The Pats never lose three in a row. That's what I keep telling myself.

New England 28, Houston 21.

Last Week: 0-3 (Week 12, Thanksgiving)
Season: 55-30.

Week 12 NFL Picks: Thanksgiving Edition

Thanksgiving might be my favorite holiday of the year. Sure, you don't get presents or candy, but the last few years my family have visited my brother at the University of Michigan for Thanksgiving. He's in the band, and it would be hard for him to get back for the huge Ohio State game that always follows Thanksgiving on Saturday. Anyway, it's become one of my favorite traditions to come and visit here and watch NFL games in a guest house with my family, not to mention we've gone to the Ohio State game when it's been here. I know a lot of people have a similar fondness for this holiday, and it's to those people that I dedicate these latest picks. As always, the home team is in all caps and the line and time of the game are given for reference.

Philadelphia (-2.5) over DETROIT, 12:30 ET.

I think people are finally starting to figure out that the Eagles aren't that good. -2.5 is a good line for them here against the lowly Lions. I'm looking for the Eagles defense to rebound from a rough game last week to put pressure on Matt Stafford and force some typical Stafford turnovers.
What people seem to forget is that it's really hard to be a one-dimensional offense in the NFL, and the Lions are about as one-dimensional as anyone. They hardly ever run the ball, and that puts an enormous amount of pressure on Stafford to make every play and big plays for the Lions, and when you have the gunslinger's mentality that Stafford has, it's going to lead to turnovers. The Lions need to make finding a running game their main goal this offseason, but for now, the Eagles will be able to key in on Stafford.
As for the Eagles offense, Mark Sanchez appeared to be an upgrade over Sam Bradford last week until he, along with everyone else, remembered that he's Mark Sanchez and ended up with three interceptions. He appears to be getting the start again this week, so we'll have to see if he can step his game up in prime time like he did on Thanksgiving last year in destroying the Cowboys. All I know is, I don't like picking games where I don't trust either team, and this is a prime example of that kind of game.

Philadelphia 23, Detroit 21.


DALLAS (-1) over Carolina, 4:30 ET.

I don't know if there's any legitimate reason to pick the Cowboys, on paper anyway. What the Cowboys do well offensively (running game, big plays to Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, security blanket for Tony Romo over the middle in tight end Jason Witten) the Panthers match up well with (push up front, great, physical secondary, Luke Kuechly patrolling the middle of the field). The same is true for the other side of the ball; the Cowboys can't stop the run, the Panthers excel at running the ball, and they have a big,strong, mobile QB to escape the Dallas pass rush and make plays down the field.
So there isn't much rhyme or reason to this pick, I'm really just basing my decision on the fact that I don't think Carolina is good enough to go undefeated for this long. I really like them, just not that much. Also, the Cowboys are hungry, needing a win this week to stay in the race for the NFC East. Usually when a team is hungrier, you can bet on that team to win. It's all going to come down to whether or not the Panthers can brainwash themselves into believing that they're the hungrier team. If that happens all bets are off. But for now, I'm rolling with the team that has its QB back and needs a win this week.

Dallas 24, Carolina 23.


GREEN BAY (-8) over Chicago, 8:30 ET

The Packers seemed to fix their problems last week when they killed the Vikings on the road. Their defense was swarming, recording six sacks, not giving Adrian Peterson any room, immediately tackling anyone before they got down field. I kind of figured they would bounce back after their three game skid, and even though the offense still struggled at times to generate separation, I don't see it changing this week.
The Bears have been underrated this year. They have had some bad luck against good teams; they could easily have a winning record. I just don't see them winning this game, not at Lambeau, not in prime time, not on Thanksgiving. There's always the potential for a Jay Cutler interception or two turning this game ugly; he just can't figure out the Packers. I dob't know if it will happen, it's just always hovering on the horizon.
P.S. Here's an interesting aspect to this game: What if the Bears come out and score, take it to the Packers a little bit and go into halftime tied or (gasp) maybe even leading? What if Green Bay's receivers continue to struggle to get open and Rodgers gets a little frustrated? And then the Packers have their ceremony retiring Favre's number and he looks a little too pleased with himself or makes a few snarky remarks about a comeback? I think it's very possible we see a pissed-off Rodgers account for seven touchdowns in the second half if things play out that way. We'll see.

Green Bay 31, Chicago 21.

NFL Week 11 Picks

We're starting to come down the stretch of this NFL season. Playoff spots are at stake and there are a lot of important games this week. As usual, home team is in all caps and the time and line are given for reference.

CAROLINA (-7) over Washington, 1:00 ET.

Man, the Panthers have had an easy schedule while going undefeated. The only team now over .500 they played was the Packers, who they caught in the middle of this three-game swoon. I think Washington will put up a good fight, but I can't see that Redskins offense getting enough points to beat Carolina.

Carolina 24, Washington 21.


Oakland over DETROIT (-1), 1:00 ET.

This line is just stupid. Just because the Lions barely squeezed out a win against the struggling Packers doesn't mean they should ever be favored. If I were a betting man, I would definitely take the Raiders. Thankfully, I'm not, but I'm still taking the Raiders to beat Detroit. The Raiders have a good offense, they can throw the ball. The Lions offense couldn't put up more than 18 against the crappy Green Bay defense.

Oakland 31, Detroit 20.


Dallas (-1.5) over MIAMI, 1:00 ET.

I'm breaking a rule here; If you're going to pick a team that is favored on the road, they better be really good. I have no idea if the Cowboys can regain their form from last year, when they should have been in the NFC Championship Game. They've lost the seven games that Tony Romo didn't start this season. Even though a lot of those were in heartbreaking fashion at the end of the game, should a team really be that reliant on a quarterback? Today will answer some of our questions about the Cowboys. If they lose, their season is over. If they win, they still have to win a bunch more. For now, I'm betting on a regression to the mean as far as their luck is considered.

Dallas 28, Miami 24.


ATLANTA (-3.5) over Indianapolis, 1:00 ET.

Both of these teams have been lackluster recently. The Falcons started off 5-0, then proceeded to lose three of their next four. Indy is 4-5 after many picked them to go to the Super Bow in the preseason. The Colts don't have Andrew Luck, and while backup Matt Hasselbeck has been better than Luck this year, he isn't the same big play threat as Luck, which should allow the Falcons to stack the box. I believe the Falcons will get back on track at home.

Atlanta 28, Indianapolis 21.


St. Louis over BALTIMORE (-3), 1:00 ET.

Um... Why is Baltimore favored? I realize the Rams are switching QB's, but can Case Keenum be any worse than Nick Foles? (By the way, how overall crappy was that Sam Bradford-for-Foles trade?) Todd Gurley hs estabished himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL as a rookie. The Rams defense is as nasty as ever. I don't get why the Ravens are favored by three, even at home.

St. Louis 24, Baltimore 14.


New York Jets (-4) over HOUSTON, 1:00 ET.

I'll have to admit I was wrong about Houston being the worst team in the NFL; I shouldn't have underestimated how inept the Browns can be. However, I don't think they have what it takes to beat this Jets defense, not with Arian Foster gone.

New York 24, Houston 20.


PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET.

Anybody who has read any of these picks columns or knows me at all knows I don't trust the Eagles. If this were a gambling column, I would definitely pick the Bucs. They can run the ball, Jameis Winston has settled in, and their defense can be good at times, and I don't trust the Eagles to win by a touchdown. How could I after they collapsed against the Dolphins last week? I don't know if Mark Sanchez is an upgrade over Sam Bradford. However, this is a column about who will win, and  think the Eagles underrated defense will make enough plays to win.

Philadelphia 21, Tampa Bay 20.


CHICAGO over Denver (-2), 1:00 ET.

Yeah, it's a pretty sure bet that this will backfire on me. I don't like the idea of Jay Cutler, due for a turnover or two this season, against the league's best defense. But Brock Osweiler making his first start on the road against a pretty good defense with no running game to help him out? I at least trust Cutler more than that guy.

Chicago 23, Denver 20.


Kansas City (-3) over SAN DIEGO, 4:05 ET.

San Diego actually has a negative home field advantage. More fans show up for the other team than for the Chargers. The Chiefs are coming off a big win over Denver and should be able to take away the Chargers strength in their passing game after picking off Peyton Manning 4 times and holding him to 5-20 for just 35 yards.

Kansas City 30, San Diego 21.


SEATTLE (-14) over San Fransisco, 4:25 ET.

It seems as though every time the Seahawks appear to be down and out, they get to play the abhorrent 49ers the next week. This time they get to play back-up QB Blaine Gabbert at home. At some point Seattle is going to have to beat someone besides the 49ers, but that isn't a problem this week.

Seattle 35, San Fransisco 10.


Green Bay (PK) over MINNESOTA, 4:25 ET.

I'm going to write a separate game summary piece specifically for this game, for three reasons:
1) I live in Minnesota and though I'm not a Vikings fan, the electricity around this game here is palpable. People are so ready to stick it in Green Bay's face.
2) Despite the fact that I'm not a Vikings fan, I do have a specific distaste for Aaron Rodgers because he's basically perfect and people try to place him above my favorite player ever, Tom Brady.
3) It's going to be a great game. The Packers are coming off three straight losses and have something to prove. Even though they lead the division, nobody believes in the Vikings, and the fans here are sick of it.
So that's what makes me excited to watch this game. Ultimately, it's hard to bet against Rodgers against the NFC North. However, he did just lose to the Lions at home last week. I don't know. What I do know is I can't wait.

Green Bay 28, Minnesota 27.



ARIZONA (-4.5) over Cincinnati, 8:30 ET.

I think this is going to be another really good game. The Cardinals are playing on Sunday night for the second straight week and the Bengals are coming off their first loss of the season, a shocker against the Texans. The Houston defense exposed some flaws in the Bengals offense that I think the Arizona defense will key in on. I think this game could come down to the final possession, and I trust Carson Palmer at home a little more than Andy Dalton on the road.

Arizona 31, Cincinnati 28.


Last Week: 7-5
Season: 55-27

Week 10 NFL Picks

I'm not excited for this week in the NFL. How could I be when my Patriots are going up against the arch-rival Giants? I'm a nervous wreck. The Giants live to end Patriot undefeated seasons, as we all know. I'm going to take my mind off it by picking these games. The home team is in all caps and the time and line are given for reference. (Sorry for missing last week, by the way)

GREEN BAY (-10.5) over Detroit, 1:00 ET.

Here's all the reasons the Packers would win this game:

• Pissed off after two road losses in which they didn't perform as well as they could:
• Aaron Rodgers at home.
• Detroit is vulnerable in every respect on defense.
• Detroit has nothing going on offense and are turnover-prone, and the Packers defense thrives on turnovers.
• Aaron Rodgers at home.
• A bunch of drunk Wisconsians wearing cheese on their head.
• Aaron Rodgers at home.

And here's all the reasons Detroit would win:

• Literally none.

Green Bay 31, Detroit 14.

TAMPA BAY over Dallas (-1), 1:00 ET.

I just don't think it's Dallas' year. They've been destroyed by injuries the likes of which I can't remember in football. Dallas proved vulnerable against the run against the Eagles last week, and Doug Martin, although struggling lately, could show out. Plus, the Dallas defense doesn't force the thing that Jameis Winston is bad at, which is forcing turnovers. As for the other side of the ball, It's just going to be tough for the Cowboys until Tony Romo returns.

Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 20.

Carolina (-4) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

I don't think Carolina is going to run away with this like some people might think. Tennessee is good when Marcus Mariota is playing, and he's back from injury. I envision a low-scorer, which favors the Panthers.

Carolina 20, Tennessee 14.

ST. LOUIS (-7) over Chicago, 1:00 ET.

I like the Bears more than most, but not more than I like the Rams. They have a really good defense and a young stud running in Todd Gurley. After heroically pulling out a late win last week in San Diego and having a few talking heads over at ESPN talk about how he's been underrated, I'm afraid this is the week Jay Cutler has four turnovers and gets written off for the rest of the season, even though he could play well the rest of the year.

St. Louis 27, Chicago 20.

New Orleans (PK) over WASHINGTON, 1:00 ET.

I don't want to go near this game, because anything could happen. Drew Brees could pick the Washington defense apart, or Washington could grind out a tough W. I really don't know, but I have to make a pick, so:

New Orleans 28, Washington 24.

PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Miami, 1:00 ET.

I don't like Philadelphia. I still don't believe in them as a playoff team. But I sure like them a lot more than the Dolphins without Cameron Wake. Sam Bradford struggles against pressure, but without Wake wreaking havoc on the line, Bradford can just dink and dunk the Eagles to a win.

Philladelphia 28, Miami 21.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5), over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Yeah, Ben Rothlisberger is out. Yeah, Le'veon Bell is out for the year. They're still playing the Cleveland Browns, who always find a way to lose.

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20.

Jacksonville over BALTIMORE (-5.5), 1:00 ET.

In football gambling, the home team is supposed to get three points for home field advantage. So the Ravens are three points better than the Jaguars on a neutral field? No way. The Ravens are crappy, and you can't tell me otherwise.

Jacksonville 27, Baltimore 23.

Minnesota over OAKLAND (-3), 4:05 ET.

Both of these teams have been surprisingly good this year, and I like both. Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out momentarily by a dirty hit against the Rams last week, and it is worrying that he's back one week later, but their offense is based on Adrian Paterson anyway. I think that the Vikings have a really good defense and will make the big play needed to stop the high-powered Raiders.

Minnesota 26, Oakland 24.

DENVER (-3.5) over Kansas City, 4:25 ET.

Denver is only getting 3.5 points at home? Meaning they're supposedly half a point better than the Chiefs in a neutral setting? With that defense at home against the Chiefs without Jamaal Charles?

I think people are overreacting to Denver losing at Indianapolis. Listen; it's really hard to go undefeated. Denver was bound to lose at some point. That doesn't mean they'll lose to the Chiefs.

Denver 24, Kansas City 17.

New England (-7) over NY GIANTS, 4:25 ET.

My stomach is queasy about this one. I won't be mad if the Patriots don't go undefeated; that's too much to ask. But I definitely don't want it to end against the hated Giants. The Giants have the playmakers to hurt the Patriots pass defense, and the Patriots haven't been strong where Eli Manning is historically weak (turnovers). Meanwhile, the Giants have Jason Pierre-Paul back, who looked good last week, against the makeshift Pats offensive line. We all know that the formula for beating the Patriots is to get pressure on Brady up the middle by winning one-on-one battles so the secondary can sit back and not blitz. That's the formula the Giants used to take down the Patriots in two Super Bowls. I still think the Pats will win, but I'm not confident.

New England 28, New York 27.

Arizona over SEATTLE (-3), 8:30 ET.

Seattle just isn't as good this year. There's something weird going on with the chemistry in that locker room. I just think the Cardinals are flat out better than the Seahawks. Carson Palmer has been really good and has a ton of weapons. Chris Johnson has been a revelation. And the defense is just as effective as it was last year.

Arizona 27, Seattle 24. 

Last week (Week 8): 7-6
Season: 48-22.

Week 8 Monday Night Pick

This week's Monday night game is the 3-4 Indianapolis Colts at the 6-0 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are coming off a gritty win last week against the Eagles in which they withstood three interceptions from Cam Newton to win 27-16 against a lackluster Eagles team. Meanwhile, the Colts lost a horrendous game last week to the Saints who are belatedly coming on as Drew Brees climbed out of his coffin to throw seven touchdowns this week. In losing to the Saints, the Colts were able to put up only 21 points, even though Eli Manning just threw six touchdowns on them yesterday. The line and time of the game are given for reference, and the home team is in all caps.

CAROLINA (-5.5) over Indianapolis, 8:30 ET.

I don't like this game. Carolina isn't as good as their record indicates, but the Colts actually looked better when Matt Hasselbeck was running the offense instead of Andrew Luck, which isn't as surprising as it was now that news has come out that Andrew Luck has been playing with broken ribs and the Colts (who just wanted a level playing field during the whole Deflategate mess but apparently the level playing field doesn't apply to them) didn't report it. The defense hasn't been able to stop anyone on the ground or in the air, they haven't been able to run the ball, and Andrew Luck has one of the league's worst QBR's, quarterback ratings, turnover rates, whatever you want. I've been waiting patiently for Luck to turn it around, thinking that people were overreacting to his early season swoon. Now? It's time for Luck to turn it around. ASAP. It's time for Luck to prove that he's still one of the league's premier signal-callers, and make a statement against a very good Carolina defense. And I think he will play a little better than he has been.

But it won't be enough. The Panthers have the kind of downhill backs that have ripped up the Colts in the past (see Blount, Lagarrette) in Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert, as well as the most physically imposing QB the league has ever seen in Cam Newton to run right at them, too. The Colts can't guard tight ends; Greg Olsen is playing like a top-five tight end and is the first option through the air for the Panthers. It's just not a very good match-up for the Colts. They don't have the offensive line to give Luck the kind of time to find his considerable weapons against the Carolina secondary, and that leads to a lack of a running game. The Colts don't have the synchronization on offense to win this game.

Now, this is more about what's wrong with the Colts than what I like about the Panthers. I don't think Carolina is as good as their record indicates, and I think they will have at least three losses by the end of the year. They will lose to a fuming Packers team coming off a god-awful game against the Broncos last night. They could lose to the Cowboys (returning Tony Romo), Saints, Falcons, or Giants. But for now, against the Colts who can only be described as struggling? They'll do enough to win tonight.

Carolina 27, Indianapolis 21

Week 8 NFL Picks

Let's hop into these Week 8 picks, as always, the home team is in caps and the time and line of the game are given for reference.

LONDON GAME

Kansas City (-3.5) over Detroit, 9:30 AM ET.

Nothing about this game screams "sure bet". Not only are the teams not very good, but it's in London, which always makes it unpredictable. Look for coaches Andy Reid and Jim Caldwell to try to lose this game with their clock management.

Kansas City 27, Detroit 21.


Minnesota (-1) over CHICAGO, 1:00 ET.

I think this game will be very close, but in the end the Vikings defense will hold against Jay Cutler (who's been quietly good this season and underrated). Look for a low-scorer from these two classic NFC North rivals.

Minnesota 20, Chicago 17.


ATLANTA (-7) over Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET.

Atlanta is looking to bounce back after some rough games against inferior opponents, while Tampa is probably still reeling from losing a 24-point lead in the second half against Washington last week. I just think Atlanta is a better team, and Matt Ryan is poised for his first prolific game this season (he better be since he's on my fantasy team).

Atlanta 31, Tampa Bay 24.


NY Giants over NEW ORLEANS (-3), 1:00 ET.

The Giants haven't played all that well since Week 4 when they beat up on the Bills, but this point in the season is exactly when Eli Manning explodes for four touchdowns. Also, New York's main weakness is against the run, and the Saints are more of a pass-happy team. Odell Beckham Jr. could go off this week.

New York 31, New Orleans 28.


ST. LOUIS (-8.5) over San Fransisco, 1:00 ET.

I'm afraid for Colin Kaepernick this weekend. That Rams defense is really good. They can get after the passer, and Kaepernick turns into the worst QB in the league when under pressure. The only outcome I would be surprised by is a 49ers win. I wouldn't be surprised if Kaepernick threw 6 interceptions. It's gonna be a rough day.

St. Louis 35, San Fransisco 10.


Arizona (-6) over CLEVELAND, 1:00 ET.

This would be a perfect time to pick against Arizona; they struggled with an inferior Baltimore team last week, just like they've struggled against lesser opponents all season, short week, road game John Brown gimpy... But they're playing the Browns. Oh well.

Arizona 31, Cleveland 21.


PITTSBURGH (PK) over Cincinnati, 1:00 ET.

Big Ben is back! Yep, the Steelers' savior has returned to get Pittsburgh into that second wild card spot, and it begins today against the Bengals. Did you really think Cincy was good enough to go undefeated?

Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 28.


San Diego over BALTIMORE (-3.5), 1:00 ET.

I'm basing this pick entirely on two things: 1) The Chargers are actually better off playing on the road because their fans care so little that the fans of the opposing team actually make up more than half of the people in the stands, and 2) you can throw on the Ravens and Philip Rivers threw for 500 yards a few weeks ago. Plus, I hate Baltimore.

San Diego 28, Baltimore 24.


Tennessee over HOUSTON (-4), 1:00 ET.

I know Marcus Mariota is out for the second straight game, but listen; the Texans are the worst team in football. They really are, and the difference between a good rookie QB and an average second year QB won't be enough of a difference to change that.

Tennessee 17, Houston 13.


OAKLAND over NY Jets (-3), 4:05 ET.

Yes, the Jets have a really, really good defense, but I don't like their vibe after that Pats game two weeks ago. Something tells me that they're just off, because they should've won that game. I think they've been thinking about that game for two weeks, not focusing on the precocious Raiders. It's time for this young Oakland squad to make a statement win.

Oakland 27, New York 24.


Seattle (-5) over DALLAS, 4:25 ET.

So Dez Bryant is back. Big whoop. All it means is that he's going to re-injure himself because he came back early and my fantasy team will be screwed all over again. Seattle ain't losing to a back-up QB, and it won't be close.

Seattle 35, Dallas 13.


Green Bay (-2.5) over DENVER, 8:30 ET.

Green Bay's defense is young, swarming, and gets a lot of turnovers. I think this might be the night when Peyton Manning throws five INT's and loses the game by himself, followed by a week of dopey ESPN on-air discussions of "Is Peyton done?", followed by Denver's defense throttling Indy the next week so that every commentator feels it's safe to act as though Manning is still an elite QB again. I got Rodgers and the Pack.

Green Bay 26, Denver 20.

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 41-16.

NFL Week 7 Picks

As usual, the time and line are given for reference. Home team in all caps.

Buffalo (-3.5) over Jacksonville, 9:30 AM ET.

This is another London game, which is always wonky and unpredictable, so I wouldn't bet on it. It feels like this Jacksonville offense needs to be taken down a peg, and the talented Bills defense has a lot of motivation after being criticized this week.
(Hold on...)
Wait, EJ Manuel is starting for the Bills in place of Tyrod Taylor? That makes it easy then.

Jacksonville over Buffalo (-3.5).

Jacksonville 23, Buffalo 17


ST. LOUIS (-6.5) over Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET.

I don't buy this Josh McCown resurgence. He looked good at times against the league's best defense last week in Denver, bt he wasn't all that good either. The Rams now have a really good running attack with Todd Gurley to tear up a Browns defense weak against the run.

St. Louis 27, Cleveland 20


Pittsburgh over KANSAS CITY (-3), 1:00 ET.

I don't know why Kansas City is ever favored anymore. With Landry Jones replacing Mike Vick at QB, the Steelers have someone who can actually throw the ball ten yards accurately, and KC hasn't done anything to prove to me that they should be favored.

Pittsburgh 27, Kansas City 21.


MIAMI (-4.5) over Houston, 1:00 ET.

Miami is playing a lot better since they fired head coach Joe Philbin. I just don't think they enjoyed playng for him. Houston is one of the worst three teams in the league, and won't be motivated after getting a win last week.

Mami 24, Houston 16.


NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over NY Jets, 1:00 ET.

This line is too high. New England is down to their third left tackle against the best second best defense in the league with a great ability to rush the passer. Plus, they have Darrelle Revis back, so Brady can't always rely on those quick passes to avoid pressure. I'm still picking the Pats to win, but the health issues are troubling.

New England 27, New York 24.


Minnesota (-1.5) over DETROIT, 1:00 ET.

This one is troubling for me. The Vikings have Adrian Peterson, a godd defense, and weapons on the outside, but this feels like a Bridgewater trap game. I still don't trust Teddy Two Gloves all that much. Meanwhile, the Lions got their first win of the season last week in overtime against the Bears. The Vikings are better than the Bears, so...

Minnesota 27, Detroit 23.


Atlanta (-6.5) over TENNESSEE, 1:00 ET.

Atlanta has had a long week to prepare for the Titans, will be motivated after a shellacking at the hands of the rival Saints, and on top of all that, Marcus Mariota won't play for the Titans.

Atlanta 34, Tennessee 20.


WASHINGTON (-3) over Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET.

This one is really troubling for me. I think Washington is pretty good, at last their defense is. But Doug Martin is on my fantasy team and I really need him to put up numbers against a Washington defense that struggled with the run in recent weeks. This all might come down to which quarterback, Jameis Winston or Kirk Cousins, throws more interceptions, and since Washington has the better defense, I'll roll with them.

Washington 26, Tampa Bay 20.


INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) over New Orleans, 1:00 ET.

Indy was able to get back into an offensive groove last week against a wounded Pats defense that's still better than the putrid New Orleans defense. The Saints got a big win last week and probably won't be very motivated.

Indianapolis 34, New Orleans 24.


Oakland over SAN DIEGO (-3.5), 4:05 ET.

Oakland is no longer the absolute worst team in the league every year. They have legitimate offensive weapons and I think they'll tear up that weak San Diego defense. Plus, the game is in San Diego, which actually might mean home field advantage for the Raiders. I mean, I can't really blame San Diegoans for not getting all hyped up over football when it's 70 degrees every day.

Oakland 31, San Diego 27.


Dallas over NY GIANTS (-3), 4:25 ET.

I saw some major problems with the Giants' offensive line against Philly on Monday, problems that Greg Hardy and the revamped Cowboys offensive line can exploit. Dallas will be letting the leash off of running back Christine Michael who should be freed up by the removal of Brandon Weeden from the starting quarterback role replaced by Matt Cassell. I like an upset here.

Dallas 24, New York 17.


CAROLINA (-3) over Philadelphia, 8:30 ET.

I've been saying it since the beginning of the season; Sam Bradford and the Eagles aren't very good. But Aidan, they just dismantled the Giants last week when you said the Giants would win. Congrats, the Eagles beat someone else in this putrid ivision. The Panthers, meanwhile, shrugged off questions about their schedule when they came back to beat the Seahawks on the road. I will give the Eagles this, their defense is pretty good, especially the front line. But Carolina has a good defense too, and a much more effective overall offense. That Eagles front seven almost made me pick them, but the Panthers, at home, which probably means three Sam Bradford turnovers, is too good to pass up.

Carolina 24, Philadelphia 17.

I'll post my Monday Night Pick separately, either tonight or tomorrow before the game.

Last Week: 9-5.
Season: 32-12

Week 6 NFL Picks

I'm sorry I couldn't get these picks out last weekend, I had so much work to do. I will do my very best to get them out every week even if each pick is very short. As always, the home team is in caps and the line and time are given for reference.

Denver (-4) over Cleveland, 1:00 ET.

Peyton Manning is due for a five-interception game where he loses it all by himself and the sports media talks about it all week. I just don't think it's this week.

Denver 24, Cleveland 10


Cincinnati (-3) over BUFFALO, 1:00 ET

I would have picked Buffalo here if not for quarterback Tyrod Taylor going out with an injury. The Bengals are due for a loss and the Bills can play really well at home, but without Taylor, I don't see how the Bills get it done.

Cincinnati 28, Buffalo 16


MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Kansas City, 1:00 ET.

I was looking for any reason to pick the Chiefs besides the fact that they're underachieving and desperate for a win (which still might be enough). They just don't really have a talent advantage, not without Jamaal Charles. I'm not confident, but I'm picking the Vikings.

Minnesota 23, Kansas City 20


Houston over JACKSONVILLE (-2), 1:00 ET.

Houston has been the worst team in football this year, only beating the Buccaneers in Week 3, and Jacksonville's offense has looked nice run by Blake Bortles. However, I think a combination of the new feeling of confidence for the Jags, the return of Brian Hoyer as Houston's starting QB, and my sense of foreboding telling me a huge J.J. Watt game is coming will lead the Texans over the Jaguars.

Houston 20, Jacksonville 17


Chicago over DETROIT (-3.5), 1:00 ET.

Why is this line so high? I genuinely think the Bears are better than the Lions. Chicago has some nice defensive players, and Jay Cutler is running the offense much better than last year. I think the logic is that Detroit needs to win at some point, but I'm not sure this is the week after dealing with questions about Matthew Stafford getting benched last Sunday after throwing three interceptions.

Chicago 27, Detroit 24


NY JETS (-6.5) over Washington, 1:00 ET.

The line is too high, but since we're just picking the games, I'll still roll with the Jets. I was looking for any reason to pick against the Jets, but that defense is going to give a struggling Washington offense fits, and the offense should do just enough to win, even though Washington's defense has looked surprisingly good this year. That the Jets are coming off a bye week, meaning they're rested and have been preparing for Washington for about two weeks is the deciding factor.

New York 20, Washington 16


Arizona (-4) over PITTSBURGH, 1:00 ET.

Trust me, there's no way this really good Cardinals team is losing to Mike Vick. Carson Palmer and Chris Johnson will have a field day against that defense.

Arizona 35, Pittsburgh 17


Miami over Tennessee (-2), 1:00 ET.

The Dolphins are coming off their bye after firing their head coach and underperforming horribly in the first part of the season. I think they use the rest, preparation, and motivation to take down a middling Titans squad.

Miami 20, Tennessee 17.


SEATTLE (-7) over Carolina, 4:05 ET.

The line seems way too high for a Seahawks team that hasn't proved it can live up to the success of the past few years, giving away big leads at the end of games because of their vaunted defense. But they've probably heard this all over the sports media and will be motivated to chop Cam Newton's head off on Sunday. In addition, here's who the Panthers have played in their so-far undefeated season:
Jaguars, 20-9
Texans, 24-17
Saints, 27-22
Buccaneers, 37-23
That's a murderer's row of crap. The Panthers need to prove it to me against a legitimate opponent, and that's not happening at CenturyLink Field.

Seattle 31, Carolina 20.


GREEN BAY (-10.5) over San Diego, 4:25 ET.

I'm going to echo the thoughts of the immortal Skip Bayless here; Why is it that the Packers always seem to be playing at home? Whenever I watch a Packers game, they're almost always at home. I don't get it. Anyway, they're going to kill a lackluster San Diego team in their continuation of an incredibly easy schedule.

Green Bay 34, San Diego 23


SAN FRANSISCO over Baltimore (-2), 4:25 ET.

Here's the thing: Colin Kaepernick isn't a horrid quarterback when the defense doesn't get any pressure. The Ravens have no pass rush anymore after the injuries they've had, and they might not be able to stop Carlos Hyde on the ground either. On the other side, The 49ers defense showed it can stop offenses when they held Green Bay to 17 points two weeks ago. In a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII, I'm taking the Niners.

San Fransisco 20, Baltimore 17


New England (-9.5) over INDINAPOLIS, 8:30 ET.

I and Pats fans everywhere have been waiting for this one. The narrative all week has been how the Patriots want to absolutely destroy the Colts for accusing them of deflating footballs. I agree, but when everybody says something, it usually doesn't go that way. I think the Colts have their pride n the line, too, because the Pats have beaten the pulp out of them ever since Andrew Luck got to Indy. I see a shootout if Luck plays and less of a shootout if Matt Hasselbeck plays.

New England 42, Indianapolis 31


MONDAY NIGHT

NY Giants over PHILADELPHIA (-3.5), 8:30 ET.

Why do people still think the Eagles are good? The rules are the home team gets three at home, so this line is insinuating that the Eagles and the Giants are relatively equal teams. They aren't, and I don't see how anyone could come to that conclusion at this point in the season. Oh wow, the Eagles beat the Saints! Do you want a medal Eagles fans? Give me a break.

NY Giants 28, Philadelphia 24

Last week (Week 4): 10-5
Season: 23-7

Week 6 Thursday Night NFL Pick

Since I have a five day weekend off from school and I wasn't able to get out my regular picks column last week because I got so much homework from said school, I figured the least I could do was get out a quick prediction for tonight's game. The home team is in caps and the line is given for reference.

Atlanta (-3) over NEW ORLEANS, 8:25 ET.

This line seems pretty low to me. I mean, I know the Falcons have their weaknesses and aren't all that reliable for an undefeated team, but they've beaten some pretty good squads. They beat the Giants in Week 2, and beat the somehow-still-favored-to-win-the-NFC-East Eagles the week before. They've also proven to be resilient, winning four of their five after trailing in the fourth quarter. Matt Ryan has struggled at times, and Julio Jones has fallen off of his early historic pace, but that's been offset by the discovery of young running back Devonta Freeman, who has gone off for 362 yards and seven rushing touchdowns in his first three games as a starter. The Atlanta defense has been up and down, but has certainly improved from the unit that we saw nearly lose the Eagles game in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, the Saints are a dramatically different team from the one we saw from 2009-2013. Those teams had some of the greatest offenses in league history and almost never lost at home. That's changed now, and a big reason is the fact that Drew Brees appears to have a gigantic salad fork sticking out of his back. He's just not the same guy he was, and he's certainly not getting back to his heyday behind a struggling offensive line that neither gives him the necessary time to throw, nor creates a push for the running game to open up the passing attack for Brees. And that's without touching on the defense, which has been one of the three worst in the league this year. The only reason they were able to beat the Cowboys two weeks ago (who, incidentally, are going to be even worse than the Saints until Tony Romo and Dez Bryant return) was because they got to play Brandon Weeden, who wasn't able to take advantage of New Orleans' hapless secondary. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will be able to exploit it, and Freeman will tear apart the Saints' equally abysmal run defense.

I realize this has all the makings of a trap game (overachieving team in a road division game against a team desperate for a win with a prideful core), but the Saints really have nothing going for them.

Atlanta 31, New Orleans 20

Week 4 NFL Picks

Home team in all caps, time and line given for reference.

NY Jets (-2.5) over Miami, 9:30 AM ET

This is the London game, which is always wonky. The time is weird, the setting is weird, everything is just weird. I heard an interesting point that Miami has played in London before which could give them an edge in preparation, but after what I saw from them against Buffalo last week, I can't take them. The Jets are just a better team.

NY Jets 24, Miami 13


Jacksonville over INDIANAPOLIS (-4), 1:00 ET

Andrew Luck isn't going to play, and the Jaguars offense actually showed some signs last week against the champs. The sky is going to continue to fall in Indy tonight.

Jacksonville 20, Colts 17


Houston over ATLANTA (-5.5), 1:00 ET

Arian Foster will be back for the Texans, so look for him to have success against a weak Falcons front that can't get a push against the run or the pass. Plus, we're waiting for a monster J.J. Watt game. Two upsets in a row!

Houston 17, Atlanta 14


Carolina (-3) over TAMPA BAY, 1:00 ET

The Panthers have looked pretty good, so I got the winning this one over the lowly Buccaneers even without Luke Kuechly at MLB.

Carolina 27, Tampa Bay 20


NY Giants over Buffalo (-6), 1:00 ET

Yes the Bills have a good defense at home. Yes Tyrod Taylor looked good last week. But we saw what you can do to this defense from the Pats game; get the ball out quickly and let your playmakers rip up the Buffalo secondary for YAC. Eli Manning isn't as good as Brady (I can hear the Super Bowl jokes coming), but this is a Giants team that smells blood in the NFC East. I seebig performances for Eli and OBJ.

NY Giants 31, Buffalo 24


Oakland (-3.5) over CHICAGO, 1:00 ET

The Bears are so bad this year that OAKLAND is favored over them. All jokes aside, this Bears team has the 0-16 or 1-15 stink, and the Raiders have played well this season, at least on offense. I wouldn't bet on it though, because it's hard to go 0-16, and if there were a week for the Raiders to remind everyone "Don't bet on us, we're the Raiders!" it would be this week.

Oakland 27, Chicago 14


WASHINGTON over Philadelphia (-3), 1:00 ET

This Eagles team has done nothing to prove to me that it should be getting points on the road. Washington's defense has looked good at times this year, and my skepticism that Sam Bradford was going to go off this year proved correct. I'm definitely not sure about this one, but I trust Washington a little more than Philly.

Washington 24, Philadelphia 21


CINCINNATI (-3.5) over Kansas City, 1:00 ET

I know what you're thinking, "But Aidan, How could you trust Andy Dalton for four straight games?" It's a fair question. But don't worry, Dalton isn't due to destroy the dreams of Bengals fans and gambling degenerates alike until January. Meanwhile, the Chiefs look dead in the water after a thrashing at the hands of the Packers in front of millions on Monday night, and I don't like a short week for such a beat up team.

Cincinnati 28, Kansas City 24


SAN DIEGO (-6) over Cleveland, 4:05 ET

The Chargers aren't that good, but they're obviously better than the Browns. What I can't undrstand is why Cleveland isn't playing Johnny Manziel. They aren't going to do anything this year, so why not see what you have in the guy instead of sending Luke McCown out there? I get that you don't want to rush him in so he plays badly when he's not ready and loses his confidence, but does lack of confidence seem like it would be a problem for Johnny Manziel?

San Diego 35, Cleveland 10


Green Bay (-7.5) over SAN FRANSISCO, 4:25 ET

This 49ers defense got ripped up through the air in consecutive weeks by Ben Rothlisberger and Carson Palmer, both very good quarterbacks, so what makes you think that's going to change with Aaron Rodgers coming to town? Plus, Kaepernick is one of the most turnover prone QB's out there, and the Green Bay defense lives on turnovers.

Green Bay 37, San Fransisco 17


DENVER (-7) over Minnesota, 4:25 ET.

This isn't the mismatch it would appear to be; Peyton Mannng isn't the Peyton Manning of old, but Adrian Peterson is the AP of old. In fact, if this game was in Minny, I might pick the Vikings. However, I cant go against that Denver defense at home against a young QB.

Denver 27, Minnesota 17


ARIZONA (-7) over St. Louis, 4:25 ET

Everyone was picking the Rams as the NFC West sleeper in the offseason, and they appeared to be right after a big 34-31 win over Seattle at home Week 1. But then they showed us who they really were: a good defense with an abysmal offense. They managed just six points against the Steelers last week at home. Meanwhile, the Cardinals proved to be the real threat out of the NFC West, with Carson Palmer being absolutely clinical through three games and a strong running game and defense.

Arizona 34, St. Louis 21


NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Dallas, 8:30 ET

Yeah, I'm never going to pick Brandon Weeden, especially without Dez Bryant and when Drew Brees is back and the Saints at home. Sorry Cowboys fans.

New Orleans 28, Dallas 14

MONDAY NIGHT

SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit, 8:30 ET

Seattle at home with Kam Chancellor back pissed off about a rough start to the season and a struggling Lions team with little hope for a bounce back? Easy.

Seattle 35, Detroit 13


Last Week: 13-2

2015 Week 3 NFL Picks

These are my Week 3 NFL picks, with the time and point spread for reference. The away team is in all caps.

PITTSBURGH over St. Louis (PK) 1:00 ET

In a pick' em game go with the best quarterback. This is Ben Rothlisberger vs. Nick Foles, so I'll roll with the Steelers. People may want to hype the Rams after beating Seattle Week 1, but they promptly went out and lost to the Washington football team (saying the name gets you branded) last week, and that Seattle win looks a lot less impressive with everything we've seen from Seattle this season. Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off a shellacking of the 49ers and would be 2-0 right now if they hadn't played the champs Week 1.

Pittsburgh 28, St. Louis 17


Minnesota (-2.5) over SAN DIEGO 1:00 ET

I don't like this game. While Giovani Bernard did torch San Diego for 123 yards on 20 carries and that makes me fearful for the San Diego defense, this feels like the game the Vikings have every year that establishes them as a non-threat to make the playoffs. But although Philip Rivers is perfectly capable of winning this game by himself, I think this year is different for Minny. I think the Vikings scrape out a win and make a name for themselves in the NFC.

Minnesota 20, San Diego 17


Houston (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET

J.J. Watt vs. a rookie quarterback? The abysmal Houston offense just needs to give up less than 14 points to win this one.

Houston 21, Tampa Bay 10


New York Jets (-2) over PHILADELPHIA

Sure, DeMarco Murray is going to play through a hamstring injury, but I'm not sure if that fixes all the issues the Eagles have. Their offensive line has been terrible and Sam Bradford can't get anything going. A team some had going to the Super Bowl in the preseason has a real good chance of starting 0-3. In contrast, the Jets have overachieved (granted, they beat up on the lowly Browns and not-so-secretly-overrated Colts) and have only given up 17 points through two games. If Eagles fans are hoping for their offense to get into gear, I fear they'll have to wait a little longer.

NY Jets 24, Philadelphia 14


Carolina (-9.5) over NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET

I was going to pick the Panthers before Drew Brees was declared out for the game. Now, one of the game's most irreplaceable players is gone, and the Saints are in unchartered territory. I can't remember the last time they played without Brees, and they will be exposed this week. It won't be pretty.

Carolina 31, New Orleans 7


New England (-13.5) over JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET

I mean, Blake Bortles played really well last week. But he still falls on his back foot and throws into coverage relying on his arm too much. If there's one thing we know about Belichick, it's that he knows how to confuse inexperienced quarterbacks i.e. Tyrod Taylor last week. Plus, Brady's on his Eff You Tour after DeflateGate. I don't really see the Pats letting this one go at home.

New England 35, Jacksonville 17


CINCINNATI over Baltimore (-6.5) 1:00 ET

The Ravens lost to the Raiders. The Raiders! They gave up 37 points to a second year quarterback! They don't have Terrell Suggs! And the Bengals have looked solid through two weeks, nothing special, but solid. And the Ravens lost to the Raiders! Remind me why they're favored by almost a touchdown?

Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 24


OAKLAND over Cleveland (-3.5) 1:00 ET

This may seem a little hypocritical, since I just ripped the Ravens for losing to the Raiders, but Derek Carr looked really good against Baltimore. I know, I know; they're the Raiders. But in my defense, they're playing the Browns! The recent history of ineptitude cancels out and here's how I see it going down: Browns coach Mike Pettine chose to go away from Johnny Manziel after he won the Browns their first game last week with a multitude of big plays. Pettine is going to Josh McCown, who left the Week 1 game against the Jets with a concussion after getting helicoptered and fumbling in the end zone. The way I see it, McCown comes out, looks sloppy, misses a few throws, maybe a pick, and the Browns fans immediately turn on him. At that point, it doesn't matter if Pettine turns to Manziel or sticks with McCown, both players' confidence will be hurt. That'll be just enough for the Raiders to eke out a win.

Oakland 24, Cleveland 20


INDIANAPOLS (-3) over Tennessee 1:00 ET

It seems like the sky is falling in Indy, and I can't blame their fans for freaking out; the Colts, and their beloved Andrew Luck, have NOT looked good. The crumbling offensive line, lack of running game, Andre Johnson's slow start and injuries to T.Y Hilton have shown Lucks main weakness; at times, he just forces things too much. However, all is not lost, Colts fans. you still play in the AFC South, and you have the Titans this week.

Indianapolis 28, Tennessee 21


Dallas over ATLANTA (-1.5) 1:00 ET

I can't explain it. I don't know why I'm picking the Cowboys without Tony Romo or Dez Bryant. Well, actually, I do. I don't trust the Falcons enough to win this game. Sure, they've looked good on defense through two games, but they haven't faced an offensive line like this Dallas line. I think the Cowboys stay gritty defensively, grind out a ton of yards on the ground, give Brandon Weeden some easy throws... wait, what am I doing? Brandon freaking Weeden? Have I lost my mind?

ATLANTA (-1.5) over Dallas

Atlanta 24, Dallas 14


Arizona (-6.5) over SAN FRANSISCO 4:05 ET

After a stellar Week 1 vs. Minnesota, San Fran got absolutely rolled by Big Ben and the Steelers last week through the air. I see that continuing this week with a rejuvenated Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals waiting for them. Palmer is matched only by Brady for TD passes so far, and him at home in a dome bodes well for the Arizona passing attack.

Arizona 31, San Fransisco 24


Seattle (-14.5) over CHICAGO 4:05 ET

Oh boy. I thought this was going to be a blowout when I first saw it on the schedule in preseason. Now Jimmy Clausen will be replacing Jay Cutler as Chicago's turnover machine at quarterback. No Alshon Jeffery or Kevin White at receiver for Clausen. The Seahawks are getting Kam Chancellor back, are pissed after starting 0-2, and the game is in Seattle. Oh no.

Seattle 38, Chicago 6


BUFFALO over Miami (-3) 4:05 ET

I don't really understand why Miami is favored in this one. Miami beat Washington and then lost to Jacksonville. Buffalo beat Indy handily then lost to the Pats in a late shootout. What am I missing? Buffalo nearly pulled a huge comeback out of their butts against the world champs, Miami couldn't manage  to beat the Jaguars. I don't get it.

Buffalo 24, Miami 14

DENVER (-3) over Detroit 8:30 ET

Trust me, nobody's been hating more on Peyton Manning for his struggles than me. Also believe that it would be my first wish to go back and take Matt Forte instead of C.J. Anderson behind that crappy Denver O-Line in the first round of my fantasy draft. But they did beat Kansas City last Thursday, they've gotten a long week, and that defense is looking really good. Plus, Detroit has underachieved and Matt Stafford is banged up. If nothing else, the Denver defense is licking its chops ready to feast on the vulnerable Lions and are ready to win this game by themselves, just like Week 1 against Baltimore.

Denver 31, Detroit 10

MONDAY NIGHT

Green Bay (-5.5) over KANSAS CITY

Rodgers at home in prime time? Come on.

Green Bay 28, Kansas City 21

A Patriot Fan's Take On DeflateGate and the Infuriating Idiocy of Roger Goodell

As a Patriots fan, my main problem with DeflateGate is not that Tom Brady could miss the first four games of the season. Sure, I would love for the Patriots to have the easiest road back to the Super Bowl and that would include having as much of Brady in the line-up as possible. However, when New England won their fourth championship of the Brady-Belichick era in February, I was just happy to witness and be able to remember a Pats championship well for the rest of my life (I was six when the Pats repeated in 2005). I wouldn't be angry if the Patriots never won another championship with Brady. What infuriates me so much about the way Goodell has handled and rationalized his decision making during this entire ordeal is the way it will affect how people see Brady's career well after it ends.

I've always been particularly interested in the careers of the greatest players of all time, in all sports. That's why I try to find the greatest games of Jordan, Bird, Russell and Magic on Youtube, and it's why I'm constantly checking NFL Network for Super Bowls from the Montana and Bradshaw eras. It's why I might prefer watching a game whose ending I already know to one I could be watching unfold.  I love observing the greatest ever to play and find out for myself what made them the greatest ever. And it's the same for a lot of people who love sports. There's a reason all the names above are revered by sports historians and fans alike, even today, years after their final games. As kids we aspire to be them and as we get older (and realize those aspirations are probably not going to come true) we come to respect and marvel at them.

Tom Brady deserves to be included on that list. He is undoubtedly one of the three best quarterbacks of all time and, in my opinion, the greatest to ever do it. All of his teammates and peers list him as one of the smartest, most fearless players they've been around. His energy and work ethic are legendary and he used them to overcome certain physical disadvantages. He has four Super Bowl rings, two MVP's, multiple career records, and two of the most astounding statistical seasons for a quarterback in league history (2007, 2011). He won a Super Bowl basically as a rookie against a seemingly unbeatable team with a final drive in which he displayed the poise of an all-time great who had already won three Super Bowls. Fast forward 13 years, and nothing had changed. This time he was leading a drive against another seemingly unbeatable team with possibly the greatest secondary ever. Brady went 8/8 on that final drive against the Seahawks, culminating with a touchdown to Julian Edelman. Three times he has led game winning drives in the big game, and it would have been  four if that Hail Mary had been a few inches closer to Gronkowski's fingers in 2012. Brady had to overcome a torn ACL, a constant revolving door of throwing targets, and two of the most heartbreaking losses ever; he came out the other side to win his fourth chip. This is the greatness of Tom Brady, the indisputable greatness.

But now, Brady is seen by many as a lying, whining cheater. And it's because of the complete ineptitude of the commissioner.

Here's a rundown of some of Goodell's worst acts as commissioner, in  no particular order:

• His decision, despite lacking evidence against certain players, to hand down significant suspensions to Saints players for BountyGate in 2012, decisions so unbearably unfounded that they had to be repealed by former comissioner Paul Tagliabue.
• The incredibly harsh one-year, no team contact suspension for Saints coach Sean Payton for his alleged role in BountyGate.
• His choice not to temporarily extend the NFL Referees Association contract in 2012, instead opting to use replacement officials from high school and lower college leagues, subsequently ruining the level of play and integrity and leading to a scathing letter to owners and Goodell himself by the NFLPA and the "Fail Mary" play which ended up forcing Goodell to bring back the real officials. (http://fansided.com/2014/09/16/5-worst-decisions-roger-goodell-made-nfl-commissioner/5/)
• Last summer, security tapes from an Atlantic City Casino elevator revealed former Ravens running back Ray Rice dragging his unconscious fiancee out of the elevator. After Rice admitted to Goodell that he had hit her, Goodell handed down an appropriate suspension of... two games. Wait, what? Rice gets two games for knocking a woman out, after Goodell had been giving suspensions twice that length to players who failed to show up for drug tests. Once he faced media scrutiny for his awful decision, Goodell tried to backpedal and make it seem as though he cared about women's rights by calling for new league rules on domestic violence. Basically, Goodell was trying to remove the shadow his decision had casted over the league, while simultaneously trying to save his own neck by blaming his horrible judgment on the rules and standards in place at the time. But that's not all! A second video of Rice's assault, which showed more clearly the seriousness and violence of the event, was released by TMZ. According to TMZ, Goodell had seen this tape before he handed down Rice's two-game suspension! Goodell obviously denied the report, but soon afterward changed Rice's suspension to "indefinite," which begged the question: why change the decision now? None of the facts had really changed, because Rice admitted to him that he had hit her! The video showing the assault itself should not have changed his decision.This was Goodell's worst screw-up and is an ongoing representation of his complete ineptitude as a commissioner.

Does anything Roger Goodell says hold any weight? It doesn't for me. And Goodell's handling of DeflateGate hasn't helped.

Let's go back to the very beginning. The day after the Patriots' 45-7 shellacking of the Colts, reports came in from ESPN's Chris Mortensen that 11 of the 12 balls used by the Patriots offense (before the referees switched them out) were underinflated significantly. That report has since been found to be erroneous: it was a much lower number of balls that were below the legal limit. But here's the thing; the NFL and ESPN knew that the report was wrong in the days afterward and didn't put out a correction. That was what got the alleged scandal off the ground and gave the Brady-Haters more ammo to lob at him, and the Goodell knew it was wrong and didn't say anything!

On to the Wells Report. The scientific findings of this supposed "independent" investigation were completely undermined by truly independent parties. All the scientific evidence pointed toward a different conclusion. Brady likes his footballs' PSI at the lowest legal limit. Due to the chilly weather and driving rain, it was more likely that those few balls which were underinflated became so naturally by the conditions and not by any sinister action on the part of Brady or the New England Patriots. However, based on the Wells Report, Goodell decides on an obscene punishment: a $1 million fine, loss of first and fourth round picks this year, and a four game suspension for Tom Brady. This is the same guy who initially gave Ray Rice a two game suspension for beating his wife! Now you say "Well he did end up changing his decision, even if it was for the wrong reasons."

That brings me to Brady's appeal. Goodell decided that he would be the one to hear Brady's appeal, even though he was the one who made the decision and that would appear to be a major conflict of interest (admittedly there is a provision in the CBA for the commissioner to hear his own appeals, but then I have to question why he chose to hear Brady's appeal and not Ray Rice's. More on this in a bit.) Goodell decided to uphold the four game suspension, with the main reason being that Brady destroyed his cell phone shortly before the appeal, thereby destroying messages that could be used as evidence. But here's another case of Roger the Dodger leaving out important information.

During Wells' investigation, Wells never asked Brady for his phone, telling him his investigation was thorough enough without it. And of Brady's testimony, Wells said the star quarterback was "totally cooperative." Somehow, Goodell found Brady guilty of lack of cooperation and willful destruction of evidence, even though Wells specifically told Brady he would not need his phone!

On February 28, Wells sent Brady's agent, Don Yee, an e-mail requesting Brady's cellphone records, to which Yee responded that because Wells and his team already had possession of five phones of Patriots employees and examined their communications with Brady, Brady's cellphone records weren't necessary. Wells wasn't happy, but accepted it. So how can Goodell possibly justify upholding Brady's suspension almost purely on the basis of Brady destroying his phone? You may say that it would be easier for Goodell to see all the messages that Brady sent that could have anything to do with illegal procedures with footballs, but he could just ask Wells if he found anything sinister on those five phones of Patriots employees! Because you can assume Wells investigated the five phones of the Patriots employees that could have anything to do ball inflation. It wouldn't have been a problem to just go to Wells, and beyond that, how could he possibly claim that it would be too long of an inconvenience to search other phones and piece together Brady's conversations when he took a month to make the decision?

All the evidence presented should lead to Goodell overturning his initial decision after Brady's appeal, or at the very least reducing it to a fine or one-game suspension. After all, history says that when NFL players appeal, Goodell almost always reduces the suspension. To be fair, the NFL did offer a reduction down to one or two games if Brady admitted guilt (Brady declined, and if that doesn't prove to the outside observer that he's innocent, he or she has some sort of bias against Brady). But admitting guilt wasn't necessary to reduce other suspensions on appeal, so why should it be for Brady? Once the Wells Report had been proven unreliable, why not just make the rational decision and overturn his prior misinformed punishment?

Read over that list of Goodell's failures again. At this point, if he were forced to admit that he had made another mistake, that could very well mean the end of his time in office, especially after the media flak he took following the Ray Rice fiasco. He is immorally refusing to overturn a wrong decision in an effort to keep his credibility, using Tom Brady to attempt to reinforce his decision-making power. His stated goal as commissioner has always been to uphold the integrity of the league, but he is stripping away any semblance of integrity by making decisions that are only made to save his own neck.

I just want to be able to talk about the greatness of Tom Brady years from now without having to be serenaded by jeers of how I'm a fan of cheaters. The facts are that Brady had nothing to do with SpyGate, and none of the evidence truly suggests that he knew about illegal deflation of footballs.  I, like many others, want to be able to tell my children and grandchildren what it was like to watch one of the greatest of all time play quarterback, without any shroud hanging over his career. Roger Goodell is seriously jeopardizing that because he is unwilling to admit to yet another decision-making mishap in his disgrace of a career.

Seriously, would you give that guy your phone?

2015 Mock NBA Draft First Round

This year's NBA draft is possibly even more interesting than last year's. The 2014 had the depth and star power to become one of the best drafts in recent years, but some injuries (Jabari Parker, Julius Randle) and general ineffectiveness put a damper on the Class of 2014's first year. That isn't to say it won't end up becoming a very good draft over the next few years; we don't judge players on just one year, especially not their rookie year, Andrew Wiggins performed admirably to earn Rookie of the Year.
That being said, I do hope the Class of 2015 has a better collective first year than last year's class. There are a number of good players, awesome personalities, and intriguing team fits and subplots going on here. For example, will the Knicks trade the fourth pick? And if so, who will they trade with? Who will take a chance on Kristaps Porzingis? Will the Kings trade Demarcus Cousins, the sixth pick, both, or neither? Where will Willie Trill Cauley-Stein be picked? And can Justise Winslow please end up in Denver to be paired with the incomparable Jusuf Nurkic? Let's jump in.

NOTE: This is what I think the teams SHOULD do (what I think probably will happen is a tie-breaker), and we're operating as though no one will trade their pick. I think there will be at least one trade on or before Thursday night, but I can't assume which will happen. I'll add trade implications into my little summaries.

1) MINNESOTA: Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Kentucky, Freshman, 6'11, 250.
This is pretty much a foregone conclusion. The Wolves have informed Towns that they'll be drafting him first. It's the right pick. Towns has no visible holes: he's strong, he can finish inside, shoot out to three point range, get rebounds, protect the rim. And by all accounts, he's a great kid and teammate who won't have a problem playing in Minnesota. He's the whole package. I wish we could have one draft where we didn't know who was going first, though. It would make the days leading up to the draft much more interesting, because not knowing who's going first can completely change the rest of the draft, based on team fit. Oh well.

2) LA LAKERS: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke, Freshman, 6'11, 270.
I'm not a huge fan of Okafor's, but he will be able to do one thing very well from the jump in the NBA: score in the post. This guy has incredible footwork around the basket, and he's the most polished post scorer in the draft since Tim Duncan. He will struggle with defense and defensive rebounding. He especially needs to work on his pick-and-roll defense. He just doesn't have the lateral quickness, and he'll get destroyed in the NBA if he doesn't get in better shape. As long as the Lakers have confidence in Jordan Clarkson at PG, this is the pick. But they better have confidence in him, because…

3) PHILADELPHIA: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State, Freshman, 6'5, 180.
I think Russell has the potential to be the best player from this draft when all's said and done. He has amazing handles, as we saw in the NCAA tournament against VCU. He can shoot and finish well around the rim. But what puts him over the top is his passing. He finds angles other guys just don't see and his size at PG allows him to see over the defense. Russell has the necessary swagger to excel in the NBA, too. Apparently he wears #0 because that's how many people have been able to guard him. He's not a great athlete, and that will hamper him against the super athletic, super aggressive defenders out there (the Tony Allens of the world). I know he'll work hard to gain strength and athleticism when he has an NBA training regimen, because this guy has that will to be great.

4) NEW YORK: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China, Age 19, 6'5, 190.
The tragic story of the New York Knicks continues. After making their fans suffer through most of a season with the worst record in the league, the Knicks won just enough games at the end to take themselves out of pole position for the first pick. They were rewarded with the fourth pick, an unfathomable disappointment for one of the most tortured fan bases in recent sports history. I think the Knicks will trade this pick (hopefully to my Boston Celtics), but according to my rules I have to pick someone. I'm excited to see Mudiay play, a big, athletic, pass-first PG who played a year professionally in China instead of going to SMU for his freshman year. He has all the tools to become a good guard in this league and he would live to set up Carmelo Anthony if the Knicks did draft him. I just think the Knicks are trading this pick, maybe to the Suns for Eric Bledsoe according to Sporting News.

5) ORLANDO: Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, Latvia, Age 19, 7'1, 230 lbs.
This is very risky for Orlando, but they need shooting and rim protection and Porzingis could provide both. Porzingis has shot up the draft boards in recent weeks, but I'm not so sure he should be. This is the same thing that happened with Darko Milicic in 2003 and we all know how that turned out. Plus Porzingis faces the same questions that plagued Darko; he's not tough enough and he's too skinny. Those things hurt Darko's defense and rebounding and he ended up losing all his confidence. That loss of confidence hurt his offense and he drifted around as a benchwarmer until he fell out of the league. Let's hope the same doesn't happen to Porzingis. If Orlando is wary of the same thing, look for them to take our next pick.

6) SACRAMENTO: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke, 6'6, 225 lbs.
I LOVE Justise Winslow. He's the Russell Westbrook of this draft. Yeah he's not super polished offensively and maybe he doesn't really have a position. But the guy COMPETES. He will be a great defender and he will always go 110%. He's shown flashes offensively, shooting really well in the NCAA tournament when he blossomed into a star. He's really good at pulling down a rebound, taking off, and finishing at the rim. He's strong, he's quick, he gets up. Sacramento needs a high character, high motor guy like Winslow to play defense at the wing, especially since they might be trading Rudy Gay. This is the pick Sacramento needs to make if Orlando doesn't take Winslow.

7) DENVER: Mario Hezonja, SG, Croatia, Age 20, 6'8, 201 lbs.
I think Hezonja could be better than Porzingis. He has struggled with character issues, like pouting when he doesn't get the ball, and he makes a lot of bad decisions with the ball. He didn't start on a very talented Barcelona team. But Denver needs any player at any position, and Hezonja has the talent to become a star. He's tall for a guard at 6'8, very long and athletic. He can shoot, slash, and finish at the rim. He's a capable passer when he shares the ball. He isn't a great defender but it's mostly technical stuff that can be fixed with work at an NBA level. He could become an even more athletic Klay Thompson, probably a worse defender.

8) DETROIT: Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona, Freshman, 6'7, 245
Stanley Johnson is riding under everyone's radar. Johnson packs a wallop in a 6'7 frame, and he's a bulldog defender. He's not a very creative offensive player, but his shooting proved better than expected in one year at Arizona. Detroit needs a small forward for the future and they need a good character guy who can play defense on the wing. If you're still not sold, let me put it this way: Stanley Johnson is the only guy in this draft who would have had a chance guarding LeBron James this year. 'Nuff said.

9) CHARLOTTE: Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky, Freshman, 6'6, 206.
The sweet shooting Booker is the perfect fit for the shooting starved Hornets. Booker has the ability to become a very well-rounded offensive guard with decent defensive potential to pair with Kemba Walker. And with the Hornets having just traded Lance Stephenson, the SG position is open in Charlotte.

10) MIAMI: Kelly Oubre, SF/SG, Kansas, Freshman, 6'7, 200.
Oubre has a ways to go, but that could be a good thing for a Miami team that could very well be losing Dwyane Wade. There has been speculation, fueled by talk of contract spats and Instagram pictures of Wade's father wearing Cavs shirts, that Wade could be joining his buddy LeBron in Cleveland. That would leave Miami with a need on the wing, and even if Wade decides to stay, they need athleticism at the wing. Oubre is really raw, doesn't have good ball skills or decision making, struggles to keep his mind focused on defense, and a jump shot that can look really bad depending on his release. But he's really athletic, really long, and he has the potential (if he works hard) to become a very good two way player.

11) INDIANA: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky, Junior, 7'0, 240.
My hero Larry Bird, president of the Pacers, has said he wants his team playing faster this year. That doesn't bode well for incumbent starting center Roy Hibbert. Hibbert is a behemoth (7'2, 290), which is great for verticality and protecting the rim, not so great for uptempo. Cauley-Stein can run in the open floor, fly high above and finish at the rim, and could become the best rim protector in the league in a few years. Cauley-Stein is a steal here.

12) UTAH: Myles Turner, C/PF, Texas, Freshman, 6'11, 240.

Turner had a rough freshman year being misused under Rick Barnes. He has a long way to develop his body to become totally NBA ready. But this is a guy who could become the poor man's Towns; a big man capable of playing inside and outside on offense and terrorizing around the rim on defense. He was thought of as a top five prospect coming out of high school a year ago, and I don't think the Jazz can pass up solidifying their front court here even if their biggest need is at the wing.

13) PHOENIX: Frank Kaminsky, C/PF, Wisconsin, Senior, 7'0, 234

The Suns haven't been the same team since Channing Frye left in free agency. That may sound surprising, because it's Channing Frye, but Frye provided the kind of spacing and passing from a big that allowed Phoenix to operate at warp speed two seasons ago when they nearly made the playoffs in the West even with significant injuries. Kaminsky is basically a better version of Frye with a post game and good defensive footwork even if he's not a good defender. This is the perfect fit.

14) OKLAHOMA CITY: R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State, Junior, 6'6, 190

Oklahoma City needs a shooter ready to step in and give them something right away as a rookie with Kevin Durant's contract in its last year and Westbrook's coming to an end soon. Hunter is one of the best shooters in the draft and he proved that he isn't afraid of a big stage

In the NCAA tournament.

15) ATLANTA: Trey Lyles, F, Kentucky, Freshman, 6'10, 235.

Lyles underachieved last season, but should do better without the shadow of such a talented Kentucky front court hanging over him. Atlanta could be losing Paul Millsap, Demarre Caroll, or both this offseason so they need to invest in the forward spot. Lyles has lottery talent and a quiet personality that fits in Atlanta.

16) BOSTON: Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin, Junior, 6'9, 220.

And so we come to my Boston Celtics. I honestly don't even think this will happen, I think (and hope) that the Celtics package their many picks and move up to take either Willie Trill Cauley-Stein or Justise Winslow. However the rules state I have to make a pick according to the draft order, and the Celts need a two way wing like Dekker. If not Dekker potentially look for Bobby Portis here.

17) MILWAUKEE: Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas, Sophomore, 6'11, 240.

Portis is good in every area of the game, and could become a very solid stretch four in the league. The Bucks need big man depth that can shoot and play defense around the rim and Portis could do both. 

18) HOUSTON: Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State, Freshman, 6'2, 183.
Houston needs a back-up point guard, something they struggled without when Patrick Beverly was injured and Jason Terry started in the playoffs for Houston. Payne has been shooting up the draft boards, noted for his feel for the game and scoring ability. He's a capable shooter from outside, ever important to Daryl Morey, and he can take the playmaking pressure off of James Harden.

19) WASHINGTON: Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA, Freshman, 6'9, 220.
Looney is a tremendous athlete who competes on the boards. Washington needs a big who can rebound and space the floor, and Looney showed signs from behind the college three-point line. If the Wizards can work with him, he could provide exactly what Washington needs.

20) TORONTO: Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia, Junior, 6'6, 227.
With Terrence Ross' regression last year and the very possible parting of ways with Demar Derozan probably opting out of his contract after next season, Toronto needs some wing depth. This is great value for Anderson who will almost certainly be a good defender in the Association, and he shot it well enough to dub him as a possibility for the new NBA buzzword: 3-&-D (threes and defense).

21) DALLAS: Tyus Jones, PG, Duke, Freshman, 6'1, 190.
In their search for a quality point guard since Jason Kidd, the Mavs hit rock bottom last year with Rajon Rondo. He shot horridly, argued with coach Rick Carlisle, and generally dragged the locker room down. Now that Rondo's off to free agency, the Mavs will once again resume their search for a PG. Jones is a reliable playmaker and shooter. He won't turn the ball over. His athleticism won't blow you away, but he relies on his smarts to excel. I'm honestly dreading the day when the Spurs sign him for cheap and he hits 8-12 huge clutch shots for them.

22) CHICAGO: Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame, Senior, 6'5, 202.
Chicago is also in need of a playmaker, to carry on their tradition of having very good back-up PG's who get put in the limelight when Derrick Rose is injured. Grant is one of the bestplaymakers in the draft and a very good value at number 22.

23) PORTLAND: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona, Sophomore, 6'6, 220.
I'm sure Portland would love to have Looney as a replacement for potentially departing LaMarcus Aldridge, and if he falls to here they'd definitely take him. If he's unavailable, look for Portland to fill in their needs for a wing defender. Hollis-Jefferson's ability to defend at an elite level is undeniable.

24) CLEVELAND: Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV, Freshman, 6'6, 210.
The loss of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love revealed something about the Cavaliers; they don't have enough shooters off the bench, specifically on the wing. J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert both shot awfully in the Finals, and they could both leave in free agency. Vaughn has shown good overall offensive ability and defensive potential, and could help the Cavs make another Finals run next year.

25) MEMPHIS: Anthony Brown, SF, Stanford, Senior, 6'7, 211.
The main thing Memphis has struggled with while contending the last few years has been jump shooting. Brown isn't the highest rated player, and this might be a reach for him, but he absolutely shot the lights out at Stanford last year, shooting 44.1% from three. He knows what his role is and could be the one to fill that need for the Grizz.    

26) SAN ANTONIO: Delon Wright, PG, Utah, Senior, 6'5, 190.
With Tony Parker's career appearing to wind down, the Spurs need to start targeting his replacement. Patty Mills is a good role player, but he isn't a starting PG. Wright has the athleticism and playmaking ability to be the guy that sets up Kawhi Leonard for years to come.

27) LA LAKERS: Terry Rozier, G, Louisville, Sophomore, 6'1, 190.
If the Lakers don't take Russell, they will need a guard. Rozier has neither the distributing ability to play point, nor the size to truly play SG, but he is athletic and a capable scorer. If LA does make this pick, look for units where Rozier is the scorer on offense and guards the PG on defense, while the Lakers employ Jordan Clarkson's size and playmaking to run point and guard the opposing two-guard.

28) BOSTON: Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas, Freshman, 6'8, 240.
A year ago, Alexander was a top recruit and thought to be a lottery pick in this draft. He had a tough season at Kansas, but his physicality and shot blocking make him a possible steal this late in the first round. Be wary of Boston packaging this pick with others to move up.

29) BROOKLYN: Jarell Martin, PF/SF, LSU, Sophomore, 6'10, 239.
Martin's NBA comparison is Thaddeus Young, the Nets forward who could be leaving in free agency next month. Look for Brooklyn to replace Young with Martin, a player who can face up and shoot, drive, run the floor, etc. He needs to improve his post game, but he has time.

30 GOLDEN STATE: Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse, Freshman, 6'10, 212.
McCullough is another ideal fit in this draft. His length, athleticism, and shooting ability at the four fit in perfectly with Golden State's uptempo, uber-flexible philosophy. Plus, it would appear that David Lee will be leaving the Warriors, and Draymond Green could also be gone in free agency, so depth at the four is a "need" for the reigning NBA champions.