Friday, October 17, 2014

End of Year NBA Predictions, Part One


The NBA season is fast approaching, and if there's anything NBA fans want to do, it's skip the regular season (except the really good match-ups) and get right to the playoffs. So I'm going to try and tell you what all the end of year awards and honors will be.
All-Rookie 2nd Team
G Elfrid Payton
G Nik Stauskas
F Doug McDermott
F Aaron Gordon
C Noah Vonleh
Gordon is the most talented player on the list, McDermott is on one of the best teams, and Vonleh is talented and on a playoff team. However, I think Gordon is the only one who could jump to first team. The two guards, unfortunately, are stuck on bad teams riding the pine (for now), but they're the best players at their positions on their respective teams.
All-Rookie 1st Team
G Marcus Smart
G Andrew Wiggins
F Jabari Parker
F Julius Randle
C Nerlens Noel
Once the Rondo trade occurs, Smart is going to start in Boston, and this guy's drive is incredible. He'll make first team. The rest of these guys are all starters on what look to be lottery teams. Parker is in the best situation, but I loved the way Noel played in the preseason, it's a race between those two for Rookie of the Year. Wiggins and Randle both have players who will help them ease into the NBA somehow (Ricky Rubio and Steve Nash respectively).
All-Defensive 2nd Team
G Chris Paul
G Mike Conley
F LeBron James
F Anthony Davis
C Marc Gasol
We've got two superstars in the back half of their primes, a star just hitting his prime, and a future MVP who just spent the summer blowing up the FIBA World Cup. Oh, and Mike Conley. This would be a very good team offensively, too.
All-Defensive 1st Team
G Eric Bledsoe
G Jimmy Butler
F Kawhi Leonard
F Serge Ibaka
C Joakim Noah
We're going very young on this squad, except Noah. All of the younger guys use their incredible athleticism (Bledsoe and Ibaka in particular) to shut down anywhere the opponent wants to go. I'm also a huge fan of Bledsoe's mirror tactic, which is where a defender shadows and offensive player by mirroring everything he does with his body. Kawhi is a star in the making who should continue to develop, and Ibaka will have to make the Thunder into a top-five defense without Durant's scoring punch to start the season. Butler and Noah (but especially Butler) will benefit from being on national television a lot if Rose's comeback is successful.
All-NBA 3rd Team
G Kyrie Irving
G Goran Dragic
F Kawhi Leonard
F Kevin Love
C Dwight Howard
It'll be tough for Love or Irving to make higher than 3rd Team, since a lot of the credit for Cleveland's success will go to LeBron, but they're going to be so good it would be impossible not to have them on an All-NBA team. Moving on to the others, I think Dragic ekes the Suns into the eight seed in a loaded Western Conference, which should be good for 3rd Team. Howard is still a dominant force at times, but no longer a consistent superstar. And as I said before, Kawhi is developing into a star. He'll get All-NBA honors this year.
All-NBA 2nd Team
G Chris Paul
G James Harden
F Carmelo Anthony
F Blake Griffin
C LaMarcus Aldridge
I think Carmelo will tear it up once again this year, mainly because he's the only real individual offensive threat the Knicks have. The Griffin-Paul duo will have it's best year yet under Doc Rivers' keen eye. Harden will continue to put up big numbers (look for his assists to go up with the loss of Chandler Parsons' creating ability) while hopefully playing improved defense. Aldridge will be the best player on a high seeded Blazers team in the West.
All-NBA 1st Team
G Stephen Curry
G Russell Westbrook
F LeBron James
F Kevin Durant
C Joakim Noah
The frontcourt remains from last year's First Team, as I think all of these guys continue to get it done, even though Durant will miss significant time to start the year. As for the guards, Westbrook is going to show everyone the true force of his talent and athleticism while Durant is out. There's a reason former player analysts like Charles Barkley love him so much. He'll be easily the best second banana on any team in the league. I also believe Curry will lead the Warriors to another playoff spot, and his numbers will be too much to ignore. I think he's a real MVP candidate as he could end the year with a 25-9 with two steals per game.
AWARDS
Comeback Player of the Year: Kobe Bryant
Both Bryant and Derrick Rose have a great storyline to go along with their season, as long as they come back well: Bryant is the stubborn, all-time great who came back from one of the worst injuries an athlete can suffer in the twilight of his career. Rose, by all accounts a great guy, has had a string of depressing, serious injuries that kept an MVP on the sidelines for a solid three years. I do think Rose will (and should) win it if he stays healthy, that hasn't been something to bank on in three years. Kobe will definitely put up numbers, though not at his normal elite pace. I see him finishing around a 19-4-4 or so. If both Bryant and Rose com back strong, it will be interesting to see which storyline the voters pick.
Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker
Everyone says Jabari is the safe pick here, and they're right. He's the most NBA ready rookie in terms of skills that apply right away. With Joel Embiid most likely sidelined for the year, only Noel and Wiggins are threats, and they're on terrible teams they didn't pick to be on. He's in the situation he wanted, being just a car ride away from home in Chicago. He's the safe pick.
(By the way, remember when the Bulls traded Luol Deng last year? That was obviously a tanking move, but Noah and Thibodeau wouldn't have it, carrying a less than scary Chicago squad to a four seed. What if they had gone along with the tank job, gotten to the lottery, and somehow ended up with another hometown kid- Jabari Parker? How scary would that roster be right now?)
6th Man of the Year: Isaiah Thomas
Many people don't realize that Thomas was one of three players on the Kings to average 20 PPG last year. The Suns, already very deep at guard, are bringing a 20-point scorer off the bench! I think Thomas will shine as instant offense off the bench, and he fits well with Dragic and Bledsoe. Thomas has a very unorthodox game that makes up for his small stature. I like the Suns to make the playoffs in the West, even with the loss of Channing Frye.
Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers
With Durant out the first month and a half or so of the season, I think this is the year the Clippers get a top two seed in the West. They have a very talented team that just had another year to mesh, and they got that third big they were missing in Spencer Hawes. Griffin and Jordan are getting better together, and Chris Paul is still an elite point guard. But Rivers is a big reason the Clips have improved so much, especially Griffin and Jordan. It will all pay off for Rivers this year.
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka
Again, because Durant is going to miss an extended period of time, Ibaka will need to anchor a top five defense in OKC. It's necessary to combat the loss of Durant's offense. Ibaka has always been one of the league's best defenders, and everyone will get to see his defense under a microscope to to start the year, minus Durant. If Ibaka plays like the second guy on a playoff team, it'll be hard to stop OKC this year. The only thing that could derail them is the lack of a fifth guy to go with Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Reggie Jackson.
MVP: LeBron James
I know this is a boring pick, but I'm here to tell you what I think will happen, not a fun thing that could happen. Just look at the facts: This is the most talented team in the league. The only team that could match the Cavs' top three is OKC, and Cleveland has much more depth than them. Cleveland is going to be a monster offensively, which is the key to getting regular season wins. This team could easily win the most games in the league just on their offense alone. Plus, LeBron's defense will seem even better compared to his teammates' lackluster efforts. And we all know how the national media keys in on LeBron. Now that his biggest competition is gone to start the year in Durant, there's not really anybody else who stands out right now.

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