Thursday, June 23, 2016

2016 NBA Mock Draft First Round

It's that time of year again: the NBA Draft is upon us. The Finals have just finished and everyone is looking toward the future, starting with Thursday night. This is the time of year when greatness is distinguished from bad decision-making, when bad teams set themselves up for the future, and good teams try to find that missing piece.

Let me be clear. This is not what I think is going to happen on Thursday. This is purely what I think each team should do. Also, the draft is hard enough to predict as it is without accounting for trades, so I am saying what each team should do at their current draft pick(s). Let's go.

1) Philadelphia: Ben Simmons, F, LSU, 6-10, 240 lbs.

MEMO TO THE 76ERS: DON'T OVERTHINK THIS!!! A lot of people have been picking Simmons apart since he opened this year as the clear cut number one prospect. Analysts have harped on his bad jump shot, how he seems to fade in and out of games, and his lack of team success at LSU. The reason LSU missed the tournament this year wasn't Ben Simmons. It was the lack of talent around him and the God awful coach who had no idea how to run his team. Simmons is a hulking mass of talent at with great athletic gifts and a passing gene rarely found in someone his size. Kawhi Leonard couldn't shoot in college either. Now look where he is. The point is, don't sleep on Simmons.

2) LA Lakers: Brandon Ingram, F, Duke, 6-9, 195 lbs.

Ingram has drawn comparisons to Kevin Durant throughout the year due to his build and skills, which isn't really fair to Ingram. Nobody should expect him to be one of the NBA's all-time scorers, but Ingram has a ton of value for the league's current style. He's long (7-3 wingspan) and athletic with the ability to shoot from range and create his own shot if need be. He showed the ability to move his feet and play solid defense as well as rebound, so if he puts some bulk on his frame he could be a perfect four as his career progresses. He is very skinny, and his strength level can prevent him from getting to the rim and finishing through contact. He's the clear number two prospect in my eyes, and this Celtics fan is very angry that the Lakers will get the only other player in this draft with legit star power.

3) Boston: Jamal Murray, SG, Kentucky, 6-5, 201 lbs.

This was basically the hardest pick I had to make. There are a number of players who could go here, and none of them really fit what the Celtics need: a superstar. The Celtics just missed out on their chance at a star in this draft and will now most likely have to trade this pick. I certainly would try to trade the pick if I was Danny Ainge. But those are not the rules of this article. I have to make a pick for Boston, and I'm going with Jamal Murray. The Celtics were ranked 28th in three point percentage, and Murray is right behind Buddy Hield for best shooter in the draft. Murray can also create for himself and others in the half-court, something the Celtics struggled with when Isaiah Thomas hit the bench. Murray's defensive and athletic issues can be hidden by Boston's strong team perimeter defense and the brilliance of head coach Brad Stevens. It isn't a perfect fit, but if the Celtics stay at three they should go with Murray.

4) Phoenix: Marquese Chriss, PF, Washington, 6-10, 233 lbs.

Phoenix is desperate for front-court players, and after Simmons and Ingram, Chriss may be the next best possibility. He's an elite leaper with good mobility and lateral quickness, a must-have for big men in today's league of defensive versatility. He's great at timing blocked shots and offensive rebounds. He also possesses a wide offensive skill set, able to shoot the three, attack from the perimeter, face up in the post, and finish lobs very well. He isn't consistent on defense or in defensive rebounding, but that can come with coaching. Chriss is one of the few players in the draft with star potential after the first two picks.

5) Minnesota: Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma, 6-5, 212 lbs.

Forget that he's a senior. Forget that he'll be a rookie who is older than your three core players. Forget that he isn't a great athlete and didn't play a ton of defense in his college career. Buddy Hield can play, and he is the absolute perfect fit on the T-Wolves. Hield is the best shooter in the draft and the Wolves need shooters around penetrators Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, and Zach LaVine. He can also drain kick outs from star center Karl-Anthony Towns on post-ups. Minnesota was ranked 25th in the league in three-point shooting, something Hield can immediately help with. Hield has ability to create his own shot and won't have to worry about defense as much with Towns anchoring that end of the floor. Minnesota has to pull the trigger on this one.

6) New Orleans: Kris Dunn, PG, Providence, 6-4, 205.

The Pelicans really just needed legit NBA players last year, as they were destroyed by injuries that left them on the outside of the playoff picture. Dunn is one of the most complete, NBA-ready guys in the draft, and is by far the best point guard. He has almost everything you want from a PG: elite size (6-9 wingspan) and athleticism, shiftiness with the ball, ability to finish at the rim. The guy can make every pass there is to make and would live to set up Anthony Davis for easy looks. He's an inconsistent shooter but can make threes in spot-up and off the dribble situations. He can also defend really well because of his physical tools, despite battling consistency issues.

7) Denver: Dragan Bender, PF, Croatia, 7-1, 225 lbs.

Denver doesn't really have a definite need. They're rebuilding and probably looking for the best player on the board, perhaps with an emphasis on high upside. Bender has his questions: he didn't get many minutes with Tel Aviv, has a very narrow frame with little strength, and battled inconsistency on his jumper. Most importantly, his strength limits him from having an impact around the rim offensively, defending down low, and on the defensive glass. Many try to compare him to Kristaps Porzingis, but Bender lacks the explosiveness that allowed Porzingis to dominate the offensive boards this year with highlight put-back slams. However, Bender is a very fluid player for his size. He moves really well and this mobility in conjunction with his length could make him a great big man defender at the next level. Just in this Finals, we saw Tristan Thompson be able to switch onto Stephen Curry and hold his own one-on-one. I could see Bender being able to do that down the road. I also like Bender's ability to see the floor and make good passes at his height.

8) Sacramento: Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, California, 6-7, 223 lbs.

Brown at eight is good value for the Kings. He fits a need, as the Kings should be trying to find capable wings so Rudy Gay can move to his perfect fitting PF spot. Brown is an explosive athlete in a great body type for an NBA wing. He can elevate and finish strong at the rim in transition and play superb defense when motivated as a result of his world class physical tools. Brown struggles to make plays off the dribble and is a spotty shooter, but his shooting can be remedied with time and hard work. It's up to him to put in that work. I hate to send what seems like such a nice and thoughtful guy to the Kings, but hey, it's the NBA.

9) Toronto: Henry Ellenson, PF/C, Marquette, 6-11, 242 lbs.

The Raptors were able to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals this year, the most successful season in franchise history. They did have one glaring weakness, however: they didn't have a single big man who could really face up and hit a jump shot. This is necessary in today's NBA, especially at the PF. Ellenson may not have the quickness to always play the four, but he's a strong body and certainly gives the Raptors the added dimension of a big man with touch out on the perimeter with a little bit of handle. His athleticism doesn't lend to ideal defense, however.

10) Milwaukee: Jakob Poeltl, C, 7-1, 239.

I'll admit it freely: Poeltl doesn't exactly fit the mold of the ideal center in the NBA moving forward. He's somewhat big and hulking and although he moves pretty well, he doesn't have the type of defensive versatility that Tristan Thompson just showed as necessary for the center position. His horrid performance against Domantas Sabonis in the tournament is a worry for Poeltl's transition to consistently playing against players at his talent level. But as I said, he moves pretty well and can play above the rim (allowing him to be a roll man and not just a post-up guy), he's efficient offensively and solid as an interior defender and rebounder. The Bucks need someone to anchor the middle on both ends.

11) Orlando: Skal Labissiere, PF/C, Kentucky, 7-0, 216.

Labissiere is somewhat similar to Myles Turner when he came out of Texas a year ago: very talented, athletic and mobile, touch on the perimeter coupled with defensive upside, underwhelming college performance. Labissiere is a more extreme example, as he averaged just 6.6 PPG at Kentucky in very limited minutes. There are worries about Labissiere's toughness, also similar to Turner. Well, Vogel had great success with Turner in Indiana, who made the All-Rookie Second Team. I wouldn't necessarily expect that from Labissiere, but if anyone should take a stab at Skal's potential it's Orlando, who hired Vogel in May.

12) Atlanta: Wade Baldwin, G, Vanderbilt, 6-4, 202.

Baldwin has incredible length (6-10 wingspan) and build which allows him to play the type of suffocating defense that can really help an NBA team. Atlanta traded PG Jeff Teague for this pick, so it follows they would take a guard to replace him. Baldwin doesn't have that much in the way of ball skills and playmaking, but he's an athletic, dynamic force with the chance at succeeding at the next level.

13) Phoenix: Domantas Sabonis, PF/C, Gonzaga, 6-10, 231.

Sabonis isn't a high-upside guy, but the Suns (hopefully). already got their high flyer in Chriss  Sabonis will be able to contribute at the NBA level because he's strong, pretty mobile, and has a high motor. His limited wingspan and explosiveness are a bit concerning, but after watching him decimate Poeltl in that tournament game, I have fewer reservations about Sabonis being able to handle players bigger than him. The guy can really rebound on both ends, gives toughness and emotion, can hit the open shots he'll get around talented guards, and even has a little of the passing gene his father Arvydas showed during his time in the league.

14) Chicago: Deyonta Davis, PF/C, Michigan State, 6-11, 237.

Davis might be one of my favorite players in the draft. This article has been a love-fest on Tristan Thompson's defensive versatility from the Finals, and I think Davis fits that mold perfectly. He's long, athletic, and really fluid. He can switch on the PnR and has great instincts as a rim protector. Another similarity to Thompson is that Davis moves well offensively as well, with the ability to play above the rim, catch lobs, and has the touch to make some of those floaters that took Thompson to another level offensively this playoffs. He's not a polished offensive big man, but that isn't really necessary anymore.

15) Denver: Dejounte Murray, PG/SG, Washington, 6-5, 170.

Murray is a straight-up athlete. He can fly down the court, has long arms, and can finish above the rim. He's really shifty with the ball in his hands and can make a consistent floater. His shot isn't broken, but it goes along with his decision-making as a playmaker in the category of "Needs Work." The Nuggets would do well to grab him as he could turn into a great secondary guard down the line.

16) Boston: Timothe Luwawu, SG/SF, France, 6-7, 205.

Luwawu is similar to Murray: he's an incredible, long athlete. Luwawu can finish above the rim from well outside the charge circle, liable to take off from anywhere. His physical tools can help him with his consistency issues on defense, but the decision-making and shooting just isn't there for him to create at an NBA level. Boston has so many players on their roster and so many picks left to make, that snagging a foreign prospect they can stash for a little while is probably a good option.

17) Memphis: Malachi Richardson, SG, Syracuse, 6-6, 200.

With the very real possibility of Mike Conley leaving in free agency, the Grizzlies' needs are playmaking and shooting in the backcourt. Richardson can provide both along with the length to help him become a better defender. Richardson is a streaky shooter who also casts up a lot of iso jumpers, but he's the best the Grizzlies are going to do at 17.

18) Detroit: Denzel Valentine, SG/SF, Mischigan State, 6-6, 210.

Valentine's stock has dropped due to an apparent knee issue, but that shouldn't stop the Piston's from going for the local talent. Valentine has superb offensive versatility as a big guard who can pass very well and shoot when need be. He basically ran MSU's offense last year as the number one creator on a top-five team, so he was facing the best the other team had to offer every night. His knee issue combined with his existing athletic limitations are worrisome, but can be helped in Detroit by the athletic force that is Andre Drummond. Drummond will help minimize Valentine's defensiveissues and give Valentine a great lob man off the PnR.

19) Denver: Juan Hernangomez, PF/SF, Spain, 6-9, 220.

Recent reports are that Denver is trying to trade Kenneth Faried to Minnesota. Depending on if they complete the deal who they get back, the Nuggets may want a player who replaces some of Faried's athleticism. Hernangomez can do some of that and add more offensive versatility to the mix. He's a very fluid athlete who jumps well and can play above the rim, similar to Faried. He is also liable to make a jumper (spot-up or pick-and-pop), attack the rim (cuts and on closeouts), can pass, and brings some of Faried's rebounding talent. Hernangomez brings similar defensive struggles to Faried but lacks the same game-breaking athleticism.

20) Indiana: Taurean Prince, SF/PF, Baylor, 6-8, 220.

Prince would be a very good fit on the Pacers. He has athleticism and length, which would allow him to play the four and help switch onto guards. He has the shooting ability and strength to be a viable stretch four alongside Paul George, and even brings a little of-the-bounce shot-making to the table. He won't have to create that much with the Pacers running their offense through George and the newly acquired Jeff Teague, which is good because that's where he can get into trouble.

21) Atlanta: Ante Zizic, C, Croatia, 7-0, 250.

The Hawks need someone who can contribute almost right away, especially if Al Horford leaves in free agency. The number one factor in rookie big men being successful is high motor, which allows them to beat the opposition to rebounds and compete on defense. Zizic is the essence of maximum effort. He's a great rebounder because he's always going hard. He has some physical tools that would allow him to play some defense as well, and he can learn from Tiago Splitter on how to be a more sophisticated offensive big man.

22) Charlotte: Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Turkey, 6-7, 185.

The Hornets could be losing both of their small forwards in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist this offseason. Korkmaz doesn't have the build to play the traditional small forward, but with the way the league is downsizing, he could play the other wing spot alongside the host of shooting guards on Charlotte's roster. Korkmaz can shoot and make plays for himself and others as a fluid athlete. He isn't a good defender and struggles to finish in the paint, but no prospect is perfect, especially at this point in the draft.

23) Boston: Ivica Zubac, C, Croatia, 7-1, 265.

Zubac has all the physical tools to be a starting center in the NBA. He's huge but moves well, giving him the flexibility on both ends of the court to be productive, and he has a pretty well established offensive skill set with touch. The biggest issue with Zubac is an injury history that has sapped some of his explosiveness and may keep him from seeing the court consistently. His other big issue is defensive fundamentals, but a high upside stash guy is perfect for a Celtics team with so many picks and so many players on the current roster.

24) Philadelphia: Demetrius Jackson, PG, Notre Dame, 6-2, 194.

Philly has taken so many big men over the past few years that they virtually no NBA-level guards to even get those big men the ball. Jackson isn't exactly a pass-first PG, but he showed he was capable of it, as he is capable of just about any skill to become an above-average guard. He's an incredible, strong athlete, which makes up for his average size at 6-1. He can shoot, finish at the rim, make plays getting into the paint, and be a great on-ball defender when he's locked in. He isn't going to be an incredible playmaker, but he gives Philly a really good chance at getting a solid guard to build with.

25) LA Clippers: Deandre Bembry, SF, Saint Joseph's, 6-6, 207.

The Clippers really just need live bodies on the wing. Bembry may be a little small to defend traditional threes, but he's very athletic with a long 6-9 wingspan. He also has some offensive game, being good in transition and as an off-ball cutter. He also rebounds very well for a player his size. He needs to improve his shooting if he wants to contribute to a team right away, however.

26) Philadelphia: Malik Beasley, SG, Florida State, 6-5, 190.

Like I said, at this point the Sixers are just looking for non-big men prospects. Beasley is a very good athlete who can play above the rim in transition and slashes well in the half-court. The key to this is that he covers a lot of ground with his dribble and can finish in the paint through contact or with a floater. He has good mechanics on his jumper which paid off at Florida State this year. By all accounts he's a high character guy, good teammate, competes on defense and on the glass. He's ot going to be the one creating offense for the Sixers moving forward, but I love Beasley as a solid role player on a contender down the line.

27) Toronto: Cheick Diallo, PF/C, Kansas, 6-9, 220.

Since the Raptors already snagged a pretty reliable prospect in Ellenson, now they can go for potential with Diallo. Diallo has an incredible 7-4 wingspan for a 6-9 guy, and his mobility and light feet could make him a great roll man, rim runner, and versatile defender. He has great timing as a shot blocker and is just a really good overall athlete for a man his size. The problems are that he is very limited offensively (no polish or jump shot to be seen), but isn't strong enough yet to play the five professionally. Also, he barely saw the court at Kansas last year and garnered little experience. However, I think the Raptors should roll the dice with Diallo if he's still here, especially if they're thinking of parting ways with resident rim protector/physical force Bismack Biyombo.

28) Phoenix: Damian Jones, C, Vanderbilt, 7-0, 244.

Jones has all the tools. It's all there: size, length, fluidity, explosiveness, length (7-4 wingspan). He can rim run and explode in traffic with the ball or for lobs. He was pretty good on the O-boards at Vandy, has a bit of offense in him complete with touch on his jumper and hook shot, and his athleticism gives him the opportunity to protect the rim and switch onto guards and hold his own. His instincts protecting the rim need work, but Tyson Chandler can help with that. The number one issue Jones faces is his motor, which especially hurts him on the defensive glass. It's going to be up to Jones whether he gives the effort every night to become a productive NBA big.

29) San Antonio: Diamond Stone, C, Maryland, 6-10, 254.

Apparently, Stone has significant issues with his background and interviews, so he's slid a little in recent weeks. This will not intimidate Gregg Popovich; Stone will seem like a piece of cake compared to Stephen Jackson, and Pop won a title. With the possible departures of legend Tim Duncan and internet sensation Boban Marjanovich, the Spurs may be in need of big men. Stone moves fairly well for such a big body, scores well with touch and footwork inside, and has range on a soft jumper that could even be extended. His lack of explosiveness hurts him on defense and rebounding, but if anyone is going to get the most out of Stone, it's the Spurs.

30) Golden State: Brice Johnson, PF/C, North Carolina, 6-11, 210.

Golden State's biggest weakness is rebounding. Enter Brice Johnson. The UNC product averaged 10.5 rebounds per game last season, including almost 3 OREB per game. The Warriors are still the league's best team and favorites to win it all next year, so they need a guy who can contribute. Johnson has the singular skill of rebounding to keep him afloat, plus he has dynamic athleticism and the ability to score out to 18 feet. Johnson will always compete and has the pedigree as the best player on a team who appeared in the national championship game. I like him for Golden State.

That's it. I can't wait to watch the draft which is always so entertaining. Thank you to DraftExpress for the Strengths and Weaknesses scouting videos that helped me formulate my opinions on the prospects. If you want to know more about the player your team picks, I would definitely suggest you go watch the DraftExpress videos on him.

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