For 15 years, the New England Patriots have been the NFL's most stable franchise. Since 2001, they've never had a losing season and have missed the playoffs just twice, and in one of those seasons they became the second team in league history to go 11-5 and miss the playoffs. That season, 2008, was also the only one in which quarterback Tom Brady missed significant time since taking the starter's role in 2001, going down for the season after suffering a torn ACL in Week 1. Other than that season, New England fans have enjoyed unwavering stability from Brady and head coach Bill Belichick, and it's made for a lot of wins the past decade and a half.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think that's about to end this season. I firmly believe the Patriots will make the playoffs for the eighth year running. It's just there's a little more room for doubt than there has been previously, for a couple of reasons.
Number one is, obviously, Brady's four-game suspension. It's never good to replace one of the league's best quarterbacks with an unproven youngster, but it's even worse when you consider the intricacy of the Patriots' offense and the young quarterback's projected performance within that. We've seen all the talented young receivers who have gone by the wayside because they couldn't think through their role in the offense. Imagine the pressure on a third-year QB who hasn't played any significant snaps as a pro to have to run the show for a quarter of the season.
Now let's zoom in on Brady's side of things. As long as he has been playing at such a high level, it does have to end at some point. Perhaps the year that Brady misses the first four weeks of the season without being able to practice with his teammates is the one in which he starts to show his age. The Patriots' offense is so based on timing and familiarity that four weeks of being unable to work with his targets may be impossible to overcome. But hey, he's Tom Brady. He does deserve the benefit of the doubt.
The other issue that has arisen is the same one that capsized the Patriots' 2015 campaign: injuries. Injuries to the receivers ruined their chances of getting the number one seed. Injuries to the offensive line destroyed their chances in the AFC Title Game against Denver. If you get enough bad injury luck, it's sure to derail any team's season, no matter how well prepared the players and coaching staff are. Patriots fans know that better than anyone.
The chief injury concern for Pats fans the last half-decade has been tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is a game-breaker with his ability to run block, route run, and make spectacular catches and even more spectacular runs after catches because of his frame and athleticism. When Gronk leaves the field, the Patriots aren't the same team. And that's happened a number of times since he was drafted in 2010. He's missed time or been hampered by injuries to his ankle, back, left arm, and knee, including an play where he tore his ACL and MCL and missed the rest of the 2013 season. Each time Gronk went out, the Patriots fell short of their Super Bowl aspirations.
Pats fans had to face that prospect again as Gronk was reportedly injured in practice Monday and proceeded to miss the next two practices. Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald reports that Gronkowski just has a bruise on his waist above his left leg and that he will be fine. I exhaled when I read that, but Gronk's injury history is long and arduous. It's hard not to get nervous.
And Gronk isn't the only injury issue the Patriots are facing. DE Rob Ninkovich tore his triceps last week. He'll miss at least a few regular season games. Julian Edelman has had a few injury setbacks since getting surgery for the broken foot he suffered last season. Defensive lineman Jabaal Sheard has missed a few practices for a mysterious injury. There are a number of other injury concerns, but they may not end up being an issue. But Patriots' fans know all too well how injuries can decimate a season, like last year.
Anyway, none of these issues seems big taken individually. But when they're added together, and with a little bad luck, everything can crumble. In the past, New England has been able to weather the storm because they had Brady at quarterback. But he won't be there the first four weeks to save the day. And when he comes back, he may not be the same guy.
All I'm saying is it's fair to be a little worried about the 2016 Patriots.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think that's about to end this season. I firmly believe the Patriots will make the playoffs for the eighth year running. It's just there's a little more room for doubt than there has been previously, for a couple of reasons.
Number one is, obviously, Brady's four-game suspension. It's never good to replace one of the league's best quarterbacks with an unproven youngster, but it's even worse when you consider the intricacy of the Patriots' offense and the young quarterback's projected performance within that. We've seen all the talented young receivers who have gone by the wayside because they couldn't think through their role in the offense. Imagine the pressure on a third-year QB who hasn't played any significant snaps as a pro to have to run the show for a quarter of the season.
Now let's zoom in on Brady's side of things. As long as he has been playing at such a high level, it does have to end at some point. Perhaps the year that Brady misses the first four weeks of the season without being able to practice with his teammates is the one in which he starts to show his age. The Patriots' offense is so based on timing and familiarity that four weeks of being unable to work with his targets may be impossible to overcome. But hey, he's Tom Brady. He does deserve the benefit of the doubt.
The other issue that has arisen is the same one that capsized the Patriots' 2015 campaign: injuries. Injuries to the receivers ruined their chances of getting the number one seed. Injuries to the offensive line destroyed their chances in the AFC Title Game against Denver. If you get enough bad injury luck, it's sure to derail any team's season, no matter how well prepared the players and coaching staff are. Patriots fans know that better than anyone.
The chief injury concern for Pats fans the last half-decade has been tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is a game-breaker with his ability to run block, route run, and make spectacular catches and even more spectacular runs after catches because of his frame and athleticism. When Gronk leaves the field, the Patriots aren't the same team. And that's happened a number of times since he was drafted in 2010. He's missed time or been hampered by injuries to his ankle, back, left arm, and knee, including an play where he tore his ACL and MCL and missed the rest of the 2013 season. Each time Gronk went out, the Patriots fell short of their Super Bowl aspirations.
Pats fans had to face that prospect again as Gronk was reportedly injured in practice Monday and proceeded to miss the next two practices. Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald reports that Gronkowski just has a bruise on his waist above his left leg and that he will be fine. I exhaled when I read that, but Gronk's injury history is long and arduous. It's hard not to get nervous.
And Gronk isn't the only injury issue the Patriots are facing. DE Rob Ninkovich tore his triceps last week. He'll miss at least a few regular season games. Julian Edelman has had a few injury setbacks since getting surgery for the broken foot he suffered last season. Defensive lineman Jabaal Sheard has missed a few practices for a mysterious injury. There are a number of other injury concerns, but they may not end up being an issue. But Patriots' fans know all too well how injuries can decimate a season, like last year.
Anyway, none of these issues seems big taken individually. But when they're added together, and with a little bad luck, everything can crumble. In the past, New England has been able to weather the storm because they had Brady at quarterback. But he won't be there the first four weeks to save the day. And when he comes back, he may not be the same guy.
All I'm saying is it's fair to be a little worried about the 2016 Patriots.
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