2015 Mock NBA Draft First Round

This year's NBA draft is possibly even more interesting than last year's. The 2014 had the depth and star power to become one of the best drafts in recent years, but some injuries (Jabari Parker, Julius Randle) and general ineffectiveness put a damper on the Class of 2014's first year. That isn't to say it won't end up becoming a very good draft over the next few years; we don't judge players on just one year, especially not their rookie year, Andrew Wiggins performed admirably to earn Rookie of the Year.
That being said, I do hope the Class of 2015 has a better collective first year than last year's class. There are a number of good players, awesome personalities, and intriguing team fits and subplots going on here. For example, will the Knicks trade the fourth pick? And if so, who will they trade with? Who will take a chance on Kristaps Porzingis? Will the Kings trade Demarcus Cousins, the sixth pick, both, or neither? Where will Willie Trill Cauley-Stein be picked? And can Justise Winslow please end up in Denver to be paired with the incomparable Jusuf Nurkic? Let's jump in.

NOTE: This is what I think the teams SHOULD do (what I think probably will happen is a tie-breaker), and we're operating as though no one will trade their pick. I think there will be at least one trade on or before Thursday night, but I can't assume which will happen. I'll add trade implications into my little summaries.

1) MINNESOTA: Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Kentucky, Freshman, 6'11, 250.
This is pretty much a foregone conclusion. The Wolves have informed Towns that they'll be drafting him first. It's the right pick. Towns has no visible holes: he's strong, he can finish inside, shoot out to three point range, get rebounds, protect the rim. And by all accounts, he's a great kid and teammate who won't have a problem playing in Minnesota. He's the whole package. I wish we could have one draft where we didn't know who was going first, though. It would make the days leading up to the draft much more interesting, because not knowing who's going first can completely change the rest of the draft, based on team fit. Oh well.

2) LA LAKERS: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke, Freshman, 6'11, 270.
I'm not a huge fan of Okafor's, but he will be able to do one thing very well from the jump in the NBA: score in the post. This guy has incredible footwork around the basket, and he's the most polished post scorer in the draft since Tim Duncan. He will struggle with defense and defensive rebounding. He especially needs to work on his pick-and-roll defense. He just doesn't have the lateral quickness, and he'll get destroyed in the NBA if he doesn't get in better shape. As long as the Lakers have confidence in Jordan Clarkson at PG, this is the pick. But they better have confidence in him, because…

3) PHILADELPHIA: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State, Freshman, 6'5, 180.
I think Russell has the potential to be the best player from this draft when all's said and done. He has amazing handles, as we saw in the NCAA tournament against VCU. He can shoot and finish well around the rim. But what puts him over the top is his passing. He finds angles other guys just don't see and his size at PG allows him to see over the defense. Russell has the necessary swagger to excel in the NBA, too. Apparently he wears #0 because that's how many people have been able to guard him. He's not a great athlete, and that will hamper him against the super athletic, super aggressive defenders out there (the Tony Allens of the world). I know he'll work hard to gain strength and athleticism when he has an NBA training regimen, because this guy has that will to be great.

4) NEW YORK: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China, Age 19, 6'5, 190.
The tragic story of the New York Knicks continues. After making their fans suffer through most of a season with the worst record in the league, the Knicks won just enough games at the end to take themselves out of pole position for the first pick. They were rewarded with the fourth pick, an unfathomable disappointment for one of the most tortured fan bases in recent sports history. I think the Knicks will trade this pick (hopefully to my Boston Celtics), but according to my rules I have to pick someone. I'm excited to see Mudiay play, a big, athletic, pass-first PG who played a year professionally in China instead of going to SMU for his freshman year. He has all the tools to become a good guard in this league and he would live to set up Carmelo Anthony if the Knicks did draft him. I just think the Knicks are trading this pick, maybe to the Suns for Eric Bledsoe according to Sporting News.

5) ORLANDO: Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, Latvia, Age 19, 7'1, 230 lbs.
This is very risky for Orlando, but they need shooting and rim protection and Porzingis could provide both. Porzingis has shot up the draft boards in recent weeks, but I'm not so sure he should be. This is the same thing that happened with Darko Milicic in 2003 and we all know how that turned out. Plus Porzingis faces the same questions that plagued Darko; he's not tough enough and he's too skinny. Those things hurt Darko's defense and rebounding and he ended up losing all his confidence. That loss of confidence hurt his offense and he drifted around as a benchwarmer until he fell out of the league. Let's hope the same doesn't happen to Porzingis. If Orlando is wary of the same thing, look for them to take our next pick.

6) SACRAMENTO: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke, 6'6, 225 lbs.
I LOVE Justise Winslow. He's the Russell Westbrook of this draft. Yeah he's not super polished offensively and maybe he doesn't really have a position. But the guy COMPETES. He will be a great defender and he will always go 110%. He's shown flashes offensively, shooting really well in the NCAA tournament when he blossomed into a star. He's really good at pulling down a rebound, taking off, and finishing at the rim. He's strong, he's quick, he gets up. Sacramento needs a high character, high motor guy like Winslow to play defense at the wing, especially since they might be trading Rudy Gay. This is the pick Sacramento needs to make if Orlando doesn't take Winslow.

7) DENVER: Mario Hezonja, SG, Croatia, Age 20, 6'8, 201 lbs.
I think Hezonja could be better than Porzingis. He has struggled with character issues, like pouting when he doesn't get the ball, and he makes a lot of bad decisions with the ball. He didn't start on a very talented Barcelona team. But Denver needs any player at any position, and Hezonja has the talent to become a star. He's tall for a guard at 6'8, very long and athletic. He can shoot, slash, and finish at the rim. He's a capable passer when he shares the ball. He isn't a great defender but it's mostly technical stuff that can be fixed with work at an NBA level. He could become an even more athletic Klay Thompson, probably a worse defender.

8) DETROIT: Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona, Freshman, 6'7, 245
Stanley Johnson is riding under everyone's radar. Johnson packs a wallop in a 6'7 frame, and he's a bulldog defender. He's not a very creative offensive player, but his shooting proved better than expected in one year at Arizona. Detroit needs a small forward for the future and they need a good character guy who can play defense on the wing. If you're still not sold, let me put it this way: Stanley Johnson is the only guy in this draft who would have had a chance guarding LeBron James this year. 'Nuff said.

9) CHARLOTTE: Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky, Freshman, 6'6, 206.
The sweet shooting Booker is the perfect fit for the shooting starved Hornets. Booker has the ability to become a very well-rounded offensive guard with decent defensive potential to pair with Kemba Walker. And with the Hornets having just traded Lance Stephenson, the SG position is open in Charlotte.

10) MIAMI: Kelly Oubre, SF/SG, Kansas, Freshman, 6'7, 200.
Oubre has a ways to go, but that could be a good thing for a Miami team that could very well be losing Dwyane Wade. There has been speculation, fueled by talk of contract spats and Instagram pictures of Wade's father wearing Cavs shirts, that Wade could be joining his buddy LeBron in Cleveland. That would leave Miami with a need on the wing, and even if Wade decides to stay, they need athleticism at the wing. Oubre is really raw, doesn't have good ball skills or decision making, struggles to keep his mind focused on defense, and a jump shot that can look really bad depending on his release. But he's really athletic, really long, and he has the potential (if he works hard) to become a very good two way player.

11) INDIANA: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky, Junior, 7'0, 240.
My hero Larry Bird, president of the Pacers, has said he wants his team playing faster this year. That doesn't bode well for incumbent starting center Roy Hibbert. Hibbert is a behemoth (7'2, 290), which is great for verticality and protecting the rim, not so great for uptempo. Cauley-Stein can run in the open floor, fly high above and finish at the rim, and could become the best rim protector in the league in a few years. Cauley-Stein is a steal here.

12) UTAH: Myles Turner, C/PF, Texas, Freshman, 6'11, 240.

Turner had a rough freshman year being misused under Rick Barnes. He has a long way to develop his body to become totally NBA ready. But this is a guy who could become the poor man's Towns; a big man capable of playing inside and outside on offense and terrorizing around the rim on defense. He was thought of as a top five prospect coming out of high school a year ago, and I don't think the Jazz can pass up solidifying their front court here even if their biggest need is at the wing.

13) PHOENIX: Frank Kaminsky, C/PF, Wisconsin, Senior, 7'0, 234

The Suns haven't been the same team since Channing Frye left in free agency. That may sound surprising, because it's Channing Frye, but Frye provided the kind of spacing and passing from a big that allowed Phoenix to operate at warp speed two seasons ago when they nearly made the playoffs in the West even with significant injuries. Kaminsky is basically a better version of Frye with a post game and good defensive footwork even if he's not a good defender. This is the perfect fit.

14) OKLAHOMA CITY: R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State, Junior, 6'6, 190

Oklahoma City needs a shooter ready to step in and give them something right away as a rookie with Kevin Durant's contract in its last year and Westbrook's coming to an end soon. Hunter is one of the best shooters in the draft and he proved that he isn't afraid of a big stage

In the NCAA tournament.

15) ATLANTA: Trey Lyles, F, Kentucky, Freshman, 6'10, 235.

Lyles underachieved last season, but should do better without the shadow of such a talented Kentucky front court hanging over him. Atlanta could be losing Paul Millsap, Demarre Caroll, or both this offseason so they need to invest in the forward spot. Lyles has lottery talent and a quiet personality that fits in Atlanta.

16) BOSTON: Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin, Junior, 6'9, 220.

And so we come to my Boston Celtics. I honestly don't even think this will happen, I think (and hope) that the Celtics package their many picks and move up to take either Willie Trill Cauley-Stein or Justise Winslow. However the rules state I have to make a pick according to the draft order, and the Celts need a two way wing like Dekker. If not Dekker potentially look for Bobby Portis here.

17) MILWAUKEE: Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas, Sophomore, 6'11, 240.

Portis is good in every area of the game, and could become a very solid stretch four in the league. The Bucks need big man depth that can shoot and play defense around the rim and Portis could do both. 

18) HOUSTON: Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State, Freshman, 6'2, 183.
Houston needs a back-up point guard, something they struggled without when Patrick Beverly was injured and Jason Terry started in the playoffs for Houston. Payne has been shooting up the draft boards, noted for his feel for the game and scoring ability. He's a capable shooter from outside, ever important to Daryl Morey, and he can take the playmaking pressure off of James Harden.

19) WASHINGTON: Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA, Freshman, 6'9, 220.
Looney is a tremendous athlete who competes on the boards. Washington needs a big who can rebound and space the floor, and Looney showed signs from behind the college three-point line. If the Wizards can work with him, he could provide exactly what Washington needs.

20) TORONTO: Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia, Junior, 6'6, 227.
With Terrence Ross' regression last year and the very possible parting of ways with Demar Derozan probably opting out of his contract after next season, Toronto needs some wing depth. This is great value for Anderson who will almost certainly be a good defender in the Association, and he shot it well enough to dub him as a possibility for the new NBA buzzword: 3-&-D (threes and defense).

21) DALLAS: Tyus Jones, PG, Duke, Freshman, 6'1, 190.
In their search for a quality point guard since Jason Kidd, the Mavs hit rock bottom last year with Rajon Rondo. He shot horridly, argued with coach Rick Carlisle, and generally dragged the locker room down. Now that Rondo's off to free agency, the Mavs will once again resume their search for a PG. Jones is a reliable playmaker and shooter. He won't turn the ball over. His athleticism won't blow you away, but he relies on his smarts to excel. I'm honestly dreading the day when the Spurs sign him for cheap and he hits 8-12 huge clutch shots for them.

22) CHICAGO: Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame, Senior, 6'5, 202.
Chicago is also in need of a playmaker, to carry on their tradition of having very good back-up PG's who get put in the limelight when Derrick Rose is injured. Grant is one of the bestplaymakers in the draft and a very good value at number 22.

23) PORTLAND: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona, Sophomore, 6'6, 220.
I'm sure Portland would love to have Looney as a replacement for potentially departing LaMarcus Aldridge, and if he falls to here they'd definitely take him. If he's unavailable, look for Portland to fill in their needs for a wing defender. Hollis-Jefferson's ability to defend at an elite level is undeniable.

24) CLEVELAND: Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV, Freshman, 6'6, 210.
The loss of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love revealed something about the Cavaliers; they don't have enough shooters off the bench, specifically on the wing. J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert both shot awfully in the Finals, and they could both leave in free agency. Vaughn has shown good overall offensive ability and defensive potential, and could help the Cavs make another Finals run next year.

25) MEMPHIS: Anthony Brown, SF, Stanford, Senior, 6'7, 211.
The main thing Memphis has struggled with while contending the last few years has been jump shooting. Brown isn't the highest rated player, and this might be a reach for him, but he absolutely shot the lights out at Stanford last year, shooting 44.1% from three. He knows what his role is and could be the one to fill that need for the Grizz.    

26) SAN ANTONIO: Delon Wright, PG, Utah, Senior, 6'5, 190.
With Tony Parker's career appearing to wind down, the Spurs need to start targeting his replacement. Patty Mills is a good role player, but he isn't a starting PG. Wright has the athleticism and playmaking ability to be the guy that sets up Kawhi Leonard for years to come.

27) LA LAKERS: Terry Rozier, G, Louisville, Sophomore, 6'1, 190.
If the Lakers don't take Russell, they will need a guard. Rozier has neither the distributing ability to play point, nor the size to truly play SG, but he is athletic and a capable scorer. If LA does make this pick, look for units where Rozier is the scorer on offense and guards the PG on defense, while the Lakers employ Jordan Clarkson's size and playmaking to run point and guard the opposing two-guard.

28) BOSTON: Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas, Freshman, 6'8, 240.
A year ago, Alexander was a top recruit and thought to be a lottery pick in this draft. He had a tough season at Kansas, but his physicality and shot blocking make him a possible steal this late in the first round. Be wary of Boston packaging this pick with others to move up.

29) BROOKLYN: Jarell Martin, PF/SF, LSU, Sophomore, 6'10, 239.
Martin's NBA comparison is Thaddeus Young, the Nets forward who could be leaving in free agency next month. Look for Brooklyn to replace Young with Martin, a player who can face up and shoot, drive, run the floor, etc. He needs to improve his post game, but he has time.

30 GOLDEN STATE: Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse, Freshman, 6'10, 212.
McCullough is another ideal fit in this draft. His length, athleticism, and shooting ability at the four fit in perfectly with Golden State's uptempo, uber-flexible philosophy. Plus, it would appear that David Lee will be leaving the Warriors, and Draymond Green could also be gone in free agency, so depth at the four is a "need" for the reigning NBA champions.     

NBA Finals Thoughts Through Three Games; Plus Game Four Prediction

A few thoughts on the emotional, psychological, and intellectual roller coaster that has been the 2015 NBA Finals (and I'm not even a fan of either team)...

• The best word I've heard to describe LeBron James' performance is "herculean". He is the Hercules of the NBA. The workload that he has to take on as essentially the entire Cleveland offense is staggering. I honestly have no idea how he's doing it, even with these awesome insights from Ken Berger over at CBS Sports (http://www.cbssports.com/nba/writer/ken-berger/25210929/what-trainer-does-to-get-a-spent-lebron-james-from-one-herculean-effort-to-next) I mean, look at all that he has to do just to get ready for the next game. He is Cleveland's entire offense, he has to do everything for them if they're going to stay afloat in this series against this Warriors team. Just look at his averages: 41 PPG, 47 minutes, 36 FGA, 13 FTA, 12 REB, 8 AST. Yes, I know he isn't shooting very efficiently, almost terribly for his lofty standards, but this is the only way the Cavs can win. And that's all that matters to LeBron; winning the chip for Cleveland. They're well on their way to doing just that, with LeBron leading the way. If he continues his level of play and the Cavs beat this great Golden State team, this has to go down as a top five Finals performance ever. I don't care about his shooting inefficiencies. It's been incredible to see him put his team on his back and lead them to the promised land.
• How is it possible that LeBron is leading a team with almost no playoff experience, missing two All-Star caliber players, with Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith seeming to try to throw games away to Golden State, and Matthew Dellavedova as his sidekick? Against a 67-win team! Stealing one (and almost two) in Oracle Arena where the Warriors lost twice in the regular season! Unbelievable.
• Matthew Dellavedova is a GOD. He's my new hero, and on a team full of lovable, quirky players, he's supplanted Tristan Thompson as my favorite Cavalier. The guy just has no fear. He's not afraid of Stephen Curry, he's not afraid of ugly, stumbling, and-one floaters, he's not afraid of taking Draymond Green's legs out. Of course he's not fully responsible for Curry's lackluster performances in games 2 and most of 3. The Cavs have done an excellent job of pushing Curry out on the pick-and-roll with a big man, then recovering and making plays in the lane to force missed shots or turnovers once Golden State tries to go 4-on-3. They've also done a great job of shading off-ball picks for Curry to allow Dellavedova to recover when he needs to. Cleveland's defense has been swarming and has out-worked Golden State through three games, even outside of Dellavedova. But it all starts with Delly. His scrappiness and hustle is absorbed by everyone on the court, it lights a fire under his teammates and confounds his opponents. He just works so hard, and it's great to see a player like that play well.
• That being said,  he shouldn't be able to do a thing with Curry. Curry is just too good to not figure out Cleveland's defense at some point. We saw it a little bit at the end of Game 3, I expect to see it more often as the series moves on and Delly (and everyone else on Cleveland) has to deal with the fatigue of playing on a team that consistently plays seven players. The Cavs will wear down, and Golden State will take advantage.
• Curry's struggles so far haven't been all about him. His teammates need to play better, specifically Green and Harrison Barnes. A consistent component of Golden State's offense this season has been Green catching from Curry on those high pick-and-rolls and attacking 4-on-3 to get himself a layup, a lob to Bogut, or a corner three for Barnes. Barnes has been shooting dreadfully, and Timofey Mozgov has done a great job going vertical to stuff Green at the rim. Green needs to find his confidence in his three point shot, as does Barnes.
• Stephen Curry is COMING in Game 4. Don't say I didn't warn you Cleveland.
• The Warriors need to throw some doubles at LeBron. Not all the time, just switch it up on him, give him a few different looks. Yes, he has the ability to pick a defense apart passing, but I'd much rather have Iman Shumpert tossing up threes than LeBron getting to the rim time after time and a) finishing at the rim b) drawing a foul c) sucking the defense in and then kicking out for a much more open three than when the defense is set d) getting those close range misses rebounded by Mozgov and Thompson. Those two have been beasts from the start of this series on the offensive glass, and if GSW allows LeBron to hold the ball for 20 seconds and destroy them in all the ways detailed above, Cleveland controls the pace and doesn't let GSW get a rhythm going. The Warriors are best in a fast tempo, quick hitting game where they force turnovers and get out for easy buckets. That';s when their jumpers start to fall, Curry pulls some craziness with the ball, and they become unstoppable. But they can't get to that point because they're allowing LeBron to dictate the flow. Make someone else beat you, like what the Cavs are doing to Curry.

GAME 4

Cavaliers 97, Warriors 102

I'm sticking to my original pick, Warriors in 7. I just think Curry got his rhythm back a little too much and figured out the Cavs defense at the end of that last game. Steve Kerr is going to find ways to make things easier for Curry and Klay Thompson, and figure out a better way to deal with LeBron.A team of six can only hold off a team of ten for so long. But hey, long live Delly.

NBA Sunday Showcase: Warriors vs. Clippers Game Review

The Golden State Warriors beat the Los Angeles Clippers 106-98 Sunday afternoon at home in Oracle Arena. Draymond Green led the way for Golden State with 23 points and six assists, while Klay Thompson added 21 points on 9-for-13 shooting and Shaun Livingston had 21 points and eight rebounds off the bench. Austin Rivers led L.A. in scoring with 22 points off the bench.

This was Golden State's opportunity to flex their muscles. They had won five straight games. They have the best record in the NBA as well as the best home record. Their entire team is healthy. Now compare that to the Clippers. They were missing Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford in this game. Golden State just overpowered L.A. with the talent they had on the floor. They were so good they were able to control the game even with a very quiet day from Stephen Curry. He had only 12 points and four assists, but that was because the Clippers were focusing on him defensively, extending their big men out onto him on pick-and-rolls and making him give up the ball. And in the first half, it seemed to work. Curry had a few uncharacteristic turnovers and couldn't get open looks. Look for teams to try this strategy against the Warriors come playoff time.

Even though Curry had a subpar day by his lofty standards, he still managed to steal the show. Early in the third quarter he made this move (http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/stephen-curry-makes-a-ridiculous-shot--coach-steve-kerr-disapproves-and-then-approves-223125191.html) to avoid four Clippers and elicit quite the reaction out of coach Steve Kerr. Curry combines possibly the best handle in the league with unquestionably the best shot in the league, just one of the things about the Warriors that scare the crap out of every contender in the West.

The game started out looking like a high-scorer, and L.A. impressed early. They made eight of their first ten field goal attempts, forced Curry to give up the ball, and forced the Warriors into sloppy turnovers. However, once the lacking Clippers bench went in against the strong Warriors bench, Golden State started to turn the tide. The first quarter finished with Golden State leading 29-28, even though LAC had outplayed them for most of the quarter.

Golden State started to take control in the second quarter. Thompson and Green kept knocking down shots. Livingston continued a strong first quarter performance. And the only Clipper who looked like he could create anything against the impressive GS defense was -surprisingly- Austin Rivers. After making their first three, L.A. missed their next 11 from behind the arc. Even though Curry didn't get his first bucket until the 5:17 point in the quarter, the Warriors clearly outplayed L.A. in the second, especially after Golden State went to a small line-up at the 4:40 mark and went on a 13-2 run. Golden State finished the quarter leading 57-50. That was the difference between the two teams on the day: when the Warriors played well it showed on the scoreboard. The same could not be said for the Clippers.

The third quarter was when Golden state really started to pull away. They came out with an itensity that the Clippers just lacked. Chris Paul was never comfortable on the day and looked very frustrated after a few turnovers. I knew the Warriors were going to win after Curry hit that shot. It was just such a momentum boost that set off the always rowdy Oracle Arena, and I didn't see a depleted L.A. team coming back from it. Even though the Clippers did make a little run to cut it to single digits in the fourth (the Warriors had led by as much as 22 in the game), the outcome was never in doubt.

There's no reason to panic if you're a Clipper fan. In fat, I'd be optimistic. L.A. did show at times that they could compete with the Warriors without Griffin or Crawford. And they unearthed a defense that could definitely give Curry problems. If these teams meet again in the playoffs, when the Clips have Griffin and Crawford at full strength, look for a great series.

Can Everybody Just Shut Up?

It's been 17 days since Super Bowl XLIX. I've needed this entire time to just soak in and digest what happened. No doubt it was one of the most shocking, crazy, improbable Super Bowls ever played. That fourth quarter might have been the most exciting quarter in the history of football. All the changes of momentum... it was incredible to watch. The game itself lived up to the considerable hype going in. There were plenty of story lines  in the two weeks between Championship Sunday and the big game.

Many of those story lines were negative towards Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots. The Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl in ten years! They always lose when they're playing a great defense! The Patriots haven't won since Spygate! Brady and Belichick are cheaters! They should give up their spot in the Super Bowl if Deflategate is true! Brady is the one behind Deflategate! Brady hasn't won without Adam Vinatieri kicking the game winner! Brady just isn't that good anymore! The Seahawks are going to get in his head! He's too old to dominate a game anymore! 

I saw a lot of people pick the Seahawks on Twitter. After Brady's first horrible pick my friend Kiley tweeted that it was the first of many to come. Everyone across the country was rooting against the Pats. They were ready to gloat when the Seahawks "inevitably" won. It was pure, unfiltered jealousy. Jealousy that their team hadn't done what ours had. Jealousy that their team didn't win three of four Super Bowls. Jealousy that their team hadn't been in the playoffs basically every year for a solid decade and a half. "They hate us 'cause they ain't us." That's how Pats Nation felt in the weeks leading up to the game. It was us against the world. If we lost, it was going to backfire on us, and everyone we knew was going to tease us mercilessly until September.

For a while there, it looked like it was going to backfire. 

We outplayed Seattle throughout the first half. Russell Wilson didn't even complete a pass in the first quarter. Even with Brady's awful interception on the goal line, we scored first on a slant to LaFell in the second quarter. After Seattle came back and scored, Brady drove down the field finishing with a beautiful over-the-top throw to Gronkowski out wide right, which every Pats fan called before the play even happened because Gronk was matched up outside on a linebacker. Every time that happens Brady throws it to Gronk and it's usually a score. That came with 31 seconds in the half.

That's when things started to turn against us. Russell Wilson drove his team down the field to score a touchdown with two seconds left in the half to rookie Chris Matthews who started the season working at Foot Locker. The touchdown was maddening because DB Logan Ryan was playing five yards into the endzone when he should have realized that the Seahawks needed to throw quickly to avoid a sack that could take them into halftime. 

After Seattle kicked a field goal to open the second half, Brady had another horrible throw picked off trying to force one over the middle to Gronkowski. The problem with the throw was that it came on the Patriots' side of the field, which led to a Doug Baldwin touchdown after the ref picked Revis to allow Baldwin to get open. After a few ugly drives, the third quarter ended with Seattle leading 24-14. The Pats got the ball back with 12 minutes to score twice. And they knew if they didn't, the constant deriding and hate would continue with nothing to do about it. 

So what happened? Brady had the best fourth quarter of his career on the biggest stage. He seemed undeterred by earlier mishaps, as he marched the Patriots down the field and finished with a beautiful throw in the back of the endzone to Danny Amendola.

New England got the ball back after Wilson missed Lynch on what would have been a 20-yard third-down conversion. Brady showed his greatness by going eight for eight on the final drive, capping it with a touchdown to Edelman who left Tharold Simon's ankles on the other side of the field with a fake slant spin out to get wide open in the endzone. The Seahawks got the ball back just before the two minute warning and immediately hit Lynch (lined up on a linebacker Jamie Collins out wide left) for 31 yards. After a few plays that netted a first down and a play where Wilson took too long and was forced to burn a timeout (hold that thought), Wilson goes deep down the right side to Jermaine Kearse matched up on rookie Malcolm Butler. Butler made a great play to tip the ball away, only

the ball fell right right down to Kearse who tipped it a couple times with every part of his body while lying down to control and catch it. And that's when I went numb.

I couldn't believe it was really going to happen again. The Tyree Catch. The Manningham Catch. Now the Kearse catch. Why did these amazing, improbable catches always happen against us in the Super Bowl? Everyone at the party I was attending was yelling and screaming and I was just sitting on the couch with my mouth slightly open in a look of total disbelief. I couldn't believe it. I was so dead inside that I didn't even realize Seattle had blown their second timeout. Hold that thought a little longer.

On the next play, Lynch rumbled down to the one. I wanted him to score so that the Pats would have some time to try and score. I mean, Brady had beaten up the banged up Seattle defense all quarter, and it seemed inevitable that Seattle would score. Or so I thought.

In a move that seemed at the time to be Belichick freezing after the Kearse catch, New England didn't call timeout. As it turned out, he was banking on Seattle coach Pete Carroll passing one time because Seattle also only had one timeout. Well...

MALCOLM BUTLER WITH THE INTERCEPTION ON THE GOAL LINE!! YES!! YES!! YES!!

What a play by Butler. He also had the presence of mind to dive out of the endzone to avoid taking a safety. Pats ball on the one yard line. But hold on, the game isn't over. It was very possible that the Seahawks could still drive Brady back into the endzone for a safety. Then the Seahaks would get the ball back on a punt down just two. But Brady, being the ultimate champion that he is, baited them offside with a hard count. Five yard penalty, game over.

But the Seahawks wouldn't go gracefully. Once those bunch of unsportsmanlike, PED-taking jerks realized they had been beaten fair and square, they just had to start a fight. They couldn't handle the fact that New England had beaten them, and they couldn't just congratulate them and get out of there. They had to make it all about them, as always. No class.

Once they threw out the Seattle instigator, New England took a knee, the clock hit zero, and the Patriots were once again Super Bowl champions. Now...

Is it finally time for Brady, Belichick, and New England to get the respect they deserve? Can everyone please admit that we watched the greatest quarterback and coach in NFL history on Sunday? Brady went 13-15 for 124 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, including 8-8 on the final drive.. Against one of the all-time great defenses. When he needed to come through or he would fall to 3-3 in Super Bowls. All the analysts who said he was done better backtrack real quick. All those analysts who gave them a bunch of crap for Deflategate (many of whom lost big games to Brady and Belichick. Hmm...) should all just shut up. And so should anyone who said that the Patriots were overrated. Tell me when your team wins four Super Bowls in a decade and a half including the last two being ten years apart in an era designed to restrain continued success.

And as for anyone who will continue that argument by saying "Well the Patriots got let off the hook by a terrible play call", that's all fine and dandy, but Butler had to make an incredible play to catch that ball. Even if it was a bad play call, we still had to make a play on the ball. And Butler said afterward that they had prepared for that play all week in practice. So how much luck was it really?

To all the Patriots haters out there, this is to you: I don't care why you hate us. If it's because you're a fan of another AFC East team, it's perfectly understandable. If it's because you're secretly jealous that we've won more than you, that's less understandable, and really pretty sad. Maybe you should focus more on what your team is doing wrong. It's really not fair to take your frustration out on us. And if I sound a little pompous, that's kind of what I'm going for. My team just won another Super Bowl, and it's earned it's rightful place in football lore. Even if some of you don't think so.

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Last week, when I made my Wild Card Round picks, I only felt confident about one pick; Steelers over Ravens. Of course, that was the one pick I got wrong, in a weekend of wonky games that almost seemed designed to mess with my head. I feel much more confident about this weekend's games. What does that mean? I'll probably go 1-4 this weekend. Remember, all times are Central, and the home team is in caps. Without further adieu...

Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND                                                     Saturday, 1/10, 3:35 PM

As a Patriots fan, it pains me to do this. Last week's outcome could not have been worse. I would much rather be playing Indianapolis or Cincinnati at home, two teams we have already destroyed this year and who wouldn't have any confidence going into New England. What I don't want, is a Ravens team coming off shellacking their rivals in Pittsburgh , brimming with confidence (or arrogance in the case of the Ravens). I just really don't like the Ravens. They've beaten us before in the playoffs, and they haven't been shy about their dislike for us. They're also liable to have some sketchy punks on their roster (they've employed a wife beater, a possible murderer, and (shudder of disdain) Terrell Suggs). I really dislike Suggs. He's always been a loudmouth who hated the Patriots for some reason. I just never took much of a liking to him. Needless to say, the Ravens are in my head.

It's not the same team as those Baltimore squads that gave New England trouble in the past, but John Harbaugh knows how to beat the Pats. The formula for beating New England is to get pressure on Brady, hit everyone as hard as you can, and force turnovers, and the Ravens can definitely do that with Haloti Ngata, Elvis Dumervil, and Suggs taking it to a Patriots offensive line that has looked shaky at times. Joe Flacco is in his crazily effective playoff mode, and he could change the game with just one deep attempt, whether it be a completion or a pass interference penalty (I'm looking at you Brandon Browner). Baltimore can run the ball and get big plays in the special teams from Jacoby Jones. They have a bunch of big game players. The home favorites never all cover, and this is a better bet than Dallas at Green Bay. I really don't like it but...

Ravens 24,  Patriots 21

SEATTLE (-11) over Carolina                                                              Saturday, 1/10, 7:15 PM

There's not much to say here. This is the easiest game to pick. Seattle is not messing around. They've won nine of their last ten, they only lost one game at home all season (to Dallas who unbelievably went 8-0 on the road), and they will not lose to the team that only made it into the playoffs because their division sucked, and only won a playoff game because they faced a historically bad, third-string quarterback who didn't even have his number one running back. Cam Newton didn't really look good against an Arizona defense that is good, but lost its will once they realized that if they were down ten, the game was over. Newton was inaccurate and seemed to sulk at times. That vaunted Seahawks defense is licking their lips in anticipation for this. Carolina never really pulled away even while the Cardinals gained the fewest yards in NFL Playoff history! And they're supposed to win at Seattle? I just don't thinkthe Seahawks screw around with this one. They've been playing with such a swagger and confidence lately, and I think it's fair to say their early struggles are behind them.

Seattle 33, Carolina 10

GREEN BAY (-5.5) over Dallas                                                                   Sunday, 1/11, 1:00 PM

The game I'm most excited about. It's the Ice Bowl II. Two classic franchises who have battled before. You don't know how badly I wanted to pick Dallas in this game. Living in Minnesota and having my dad and brother as Bears fans, I've developed a healthy dislike for the Packers, especially the admitted football perfection that is Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is, as previously stated, undefeated on the road this year. Ndamukong Suh stepped on Rodgers' leg in Week 17, taking him out of the game and bringing this week's news that Rodgers had a slight tear in his calf muscle. Dallas' running attack with Demarco Murray behind that stellar offensive line can shred that weak Packers defense and keep Rodgers off the field. The frigid conditions could take the fans out of the game and reduce the home field advantage that Green Bay usually enjoys when the Cheeseheads come out in full force. That same cold could also harden the field to the degree that any good hit Dallas lays on Rodgers could be the one that takes him out of the game. Dallas got the playoff monkey off their backs with last week's win against Detroit.

All of these are reasons why I could take Dallas. But I won't.

The reason I'm taking the Packers is basically just Aaron Rodgers. And the weapons he has around him, I guess. Rodgers has just been otherworldly at Lambeau, having not thrown a pick there for a solid two years. He does have the right weapons around him, with Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy among the playmakers Rodgers has to work with. The Packers' offense is too much for this questionable Dallas defense to handle. That Cowboys defense looked better than it is in the second half against a secretly shaky Lions offense last week that didn't have the classic Calvin Johnson we all know and love, and I think Matthew Stafford is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the league. Rodgers will tear through Dallas, even on a busted wheel. I'm anticipating a high scoring game, I just don't think the Cowboys can get the stops when it matters.

Green Bay 38, Dallas 33

DENVER (-7) over Indianapolis                                                             Sunday, 1/11, 3:40 PM

It's just like Denver to deteriorate the last half of the season, get the two seed, and still pull the easier game after the bye over the one seed Patriots. As I said earlier, I'd much rather have Indianapolis traveling to Foxboro than the Ravens. The Colts haven't beaten anyone all that good this year. Their best win was either their shut out of Cincinnati or a seven point win over suddenly scary Baltimore in Week 5. Other than that they were destroyed by Denver, Philly, Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas (you know, five of the best seven teams they played) by a combined point differential of 84 points! Are you kidding me? These guys cant play with the good teams! And no matter how bad they may have looked recently, Denver is still really freaking good.

Denver's new found rushing game could exploit a glaring deficiency in the Colts' defense. They can't stop The run when they have to respect the pass of the other team, which they didn't need to last week against the Red Rocket minus the services of AJ Green. Even though the Colts have Pro Bowl cornerback Vontae Davis, the reason Denver is so scary is that they have so many weapons. Between Demaryius and Julius Thomas, running back C.J. Anderson, and Emmanuel Sanders, there's too many weapons for Indianapolis to handle. I can't trust the Colts. They looked better than they are last week against the perpetually disappointing playoff version of the Bengals. Don't get drawn in by their success and Denver's noted struggles.

Denver 31, Indianapolis 20

Last Week: 3-1





        

NFL Playoffs Wild Card Picks

     In this column I'll be previewing the NFL Wild Card round playoff games. I'll make my picks for the games and I'll post the odds for the game from Vegas. The home team is in caps. If you don't know how Vegas odds work, the - sign is how many points the favored team should win by, the + sign is how many points the underdog should lose by. I will also list the day, date, and time of the game, all times are central. After my explanations, I'll give my expected score. Let's go.

CAROLINA (-6.5) over Arizona                                                                      Saturday, 1/3, 3:35 PM

     This one comes down to the ultimate in picking playoff games; don't take a shaky quarterback, especially on the road against a Carolina defense that is quietly rounding into the poor man's version of the 2013 Panthers. Seriously, I was looking for any reason to pick the Cardinals in this game. They earned the right to be in the playoffs, winning nine of their first ten games before losing their QB Carson Palmer in their Week 10 win over the St. Louis Rams. That's when their dreams of playing at home in the Super Bowl effectively vanished. With Palmer, they looked like the best team in the NFC, but it's hard to look all that great with a backup QB. It only got worse when their backup QB Drew Stanton was injured in Arizona's Week 15 victory over the Rams. That's when third-stringer Ryan Lindley entered the fold. Lindley entered next week's game against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks defense with 181 pass attempts without a touchdown, the most in NFL history, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
     I honestly hope I'm wrong, because it's so unfortunate that a season that started with home Super Bowl aspirations could end without a playoff victory, all because of terrible injury luck. Even if Stanton, the back-up, were starting, I would pick the Cardinals. But the fact that Arizona has to start the historically bad Lindley on the road is just too much to overcome.
     Another reason this annoys me is that Carolina didn't deserve to make it into the playoffs. They only made it because they play in a terrible division, the NFC South. They have a losing record on the season. After they won on October fifth at home against Chicago, they tied the Bengals the next week at Cincinnati, and then lost every game they played until a December 7th win at New Orleans (they had a Week 12 bye). They didn't win for nearly two months! And this team deserves to be in the playoffs?
     However, none of this matters now. They destroyed Atlanta last week to win the division and secure a playoff game at home. And however unfair it may seem for these two teams to be in the positions they are, I'll take Cam Newton, national champion in college who played in the playoffs last year, over Ryan Lindley any day.

Carolina 13, Arizona 6


PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore                                                                  Saturday, 1/3, 7:15 PM

     As a Patriots fan, I'm abjectly terrified of the Steelers, so I'm hoping I'm wrong on this one, too. The one thing they're bad at (defending the deep pass) is the one thing the Pats have struggled with on offense this year, as Tom Brady is slowly moving into the Peyton Manning zone in terms of losing the ability to throw powerfully and accurately downfield. And sure, Joe Flacco is one of the quarterbacks you would pick out to exploit that deep pass deficiency for Pittsburgh's defense. But I can't pick the Ravens after their seeming attempt to throw away a playoff spot recently. Here's how their last five games have gone:
Week 13: Chargers 34 RAVENS 33
Baltimore throws away a 30-20 lead with 6:13 remaining at home to a very beatable Chargers team. remember, the Ravens were fighting San Diego for a playoff spot until Week 17, so they should have gotten up for this game.
Week 14: Ravens 28 DOLPHINS 13
Not exactly a great win. The Dolphins proved themselves to be mediocre this year, and it's not like the Ravens dominated the game.
Week 15: Jaguars 12 RAVENS 20
Same as the Dolphins game, only Jacksonville was worse than Miami this year, the win was even less dominating, and Baltimore was at home. Not impressive.
Week 16: Ravens 13 TEXANS 25
This is where I really lost confidence in Baltimore. Flacco went 21 of 50 for 195 yards (a completion percentage of 42% and YPA of 3.9) with three INT's, two TD's, and a QBR of 3.2. 'Nuff said.
Week 17: BROWNS 10 Ravens 20
 In a must-win game against the rival Browns, a team that lost its final five games of the season and, amid the chaos of the Johnny Manziel debacle, had to start CONNOR FREAKING SHAW, the Ravens never really showed that they were a playoff team. They never pulled away from a reeling Browns squad in a game they had to have to win? How could you back that team?

     And please don't forget about these few things going Pittsburgh's way:
Big Ben in a big game, the Ravens having beaten just one team all season with a record above .500, Antonio Brown, Flacco's recent performance, the karmic ramifications of how the Ray Rice ordeal went down, Antonio Brown, all of Pittsburgh's weapons at receiver, Pittsburgh's ability to rush the passer, and Antonio Brown kick/punt returns. It hurts for the Steelers to lose Le'veon Bell, but that just serves to make the game closer in what should be a classic Steelers-Ravens chippy slugfest.

Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 24

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over Cincinnati                                                              Sunday, 1/4, 1:00 PM

     I really don't like this one. I don't trust either of these teams. It comes down to a few factors: Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano over Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis in a big game, Indianapolis getting home field, and AJ Green probably not playing. That last one is key. When Green missed the Bengals' game against the Colts in Week 7, Indy shut Cincy out en route to a 27-0 thrashing. With no deep threat, the Colts were able to stack the box and limit Cincy's output on the ground. I'm betting on the same thing happening on Sunday. A few things that worry me:
1) The Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard running attack for Cincy destroying the weak run defense of the Colts. Because of the aforementioned absence of AJ Green, I hope the Colts can overcome this by stacking the box against the run and forcing Dalton into typical Dalton-in-a-big-game mistakes.
2) Luck quietly has a lot of turnovers this year, and the Bengals' secondary is excellent. Watch out for that.
3) Indianapolis might have the worst running backs in the league. After Ahmad Bradshaw's injury, they've been playing Trent Richardson at RB. TRENT RICHARDSON!!! Very dangerous territory.

     But, like I said, I'll take Andrew the Giant and Chuck Strong over the Red Rocket and Marvin Lewis (sorry, he's too bland for anyone to have given him a nickname) in a playoff game.

Indianapolis 24, Cincinnati 21

DALLAS (-6.5) over Detroit

I wavered on this one a lot. Let's consider the cases for both teams.
DETROIT
 -Got Ndamukong Suh for the game after the league repealed Suh's suspension for stepping on Aaron Rodgers (to me, on purpose). Suh has been their best player this year and the key cog in Detroit's excellent run defense, key in stopping the Cowboys' Demarco Murray behind the league's best offensive line.
-Tony Romo and Jason Garrett in a big/playoff game. So far these two have done well in big games this season, but the monster could rear it's ugly head at any point.
-Calvin Johnson might just be getting healthy just in time to rip apart a sub-par Dallas defense.
-Dallas' biggest strength (running the ball) is what the Lion's stop best.
-The Cowboys haven't had much of a home field advantage this year, going just 4-4 at Jerry World.
-The possibility that Suh knocks Murray out of the game by stomping on his previously broken left hand.
-Wouldn't it be the most Cowboys-esque thing if Dallas lost in the first round once they finally made it above 8-8 and into the playoffs?

DALLAS
-Demarco Murray got the single season rushing record in Cowboys history. Remember how Emmitt Smith was once on the Cowboys? Murray is really freaking good, especially behind that offensive line.
-Matthew Stafford and Jim Caldwell in a road playoff game. Little less than trustworthy.
-Sure, Detroit's defense has looked great, but usually only when they're playing bad teams. The only two times they played really good offensive teams, they gave up at least 30 (Week 12, lost 34-9 to the Pats, Week 17, lost 30-20 to the Packers). I'm not counting that first Packers game because Green Bay wasn't what they are now.
-Stafford is 3-31 all time against teams that finished the year with winning records, and he's never beaten an above-.500 team on the road. Not so impressive.
-Along with Murray's broken record, Dez Bryant passed Terrell Owens for most TD catches in a season by a Cowboy. Dez is also really freaking good.
-Romo's 114.4 passer rating for the season is sixth best in NFL history. The running game really allowed him to play well this year, since he wasn't having to throw so much in every game. He's like Jay Cutler in that if you make them throw the ball a lot, of course they'll have turnovers. You just have to call the game right, leaning more on the running game to set up easy throws.
-Dallas went 4-0 in December, contradicting recent history.
-With Murray, Dez, that offensive line, Terrance Williams, the surprising Cole Beasley in the slot and veteran TE Jason Witten, Romo has a ton of weapons to work with.
- At times, Detroit's offense has looked totally stagnant this year. Stafford makes a lot of mistakes, Megatron has not looked himself with all the injuries, and their running game is non-descript. Lucky for this below average Dallas defense.
-Jim Caldwell is the Lions' coach. This is not good for Detroit. Caldwell literally shows no emotion while he's out there, and the camera hardly ever finds him talking or moving. It's like the Lions send out a cardboard cut-out each Sunday.
-Everything is setting up for the Cowboys to go to Lambeau next week for The Ice Bowl II. If you can't get excited for that, I don't know what to tell you.

See how there are many more points in the case for Dallas? That's why I'm picking them.

Oh, and because they're playing the freaking Lions.

Dallas 28, Detroit 21

End of Year NBA Predictions, Part One

The NBA season is fast approaching, and if there's anything NBA fans want to do, it's skip the regular season (except the really good match-ups) and get right to the playoffs. So I'm going to try and tell you what all the end of year awards and honors will be.

All-Rookie 2^nd Team

G Elfrid Payton

G Nik Stauskas

F Doug McDermott

F Aaron Gordon

C Noah Vonleh

Gordon is the most talented player on the list, McDermott is on one of the best teams, and Vonleh is talented and on a playoff team. However, I think Gordon is the only one who could jump to first team. The two guards, unfortunately, are stuck on bad teams riding the pine (for now), but they're the best players at their positions on their respective teams.

All-Rookie 1^st Team

G Marcus Smart

G Andrew Wiggins

F Jabari Parker

F Julius Randle

C Nerlens Noel

Once the Rondo trade occurs, Smart is going to start in Boston, and this guy's drive is incredible. He'll make first team. The rest of these guys are all starters on what look to be lottery teams. Parker is in the best situation, but I loved the way Noel played in the preseason, it's a race between those two for Rookie of the Year. Wiggins and Randle both have players who will help them ease into the NBA somehow (Ricky Rubio and Steve Nash respectively).

All-Defensive 2^nd Team

G Chris Paul

G Mike Conley

F LeBron James

F Anthony Davis

C Marc Gasol

We've got two superstars in the back half of their primes, a star just hitting his prime, and a future MVP who just spent the summer blowing up the FIBA World Cup. Oh, and Mike Conley. This would be a very good team offensively, too.

All-Defensive 1^st Team

G Eric Bledsoe

G Jimmy Butler

F Kawhi Leonard

F Serge Ibaka

C Joakim Noah

We're going very young on this squad, except Noah. All of the younger guys use their incredible athleticism (Bledsoe and Ibaka in particular) to shut down anywhere the opponent wants to go. I'm also a huge fan of Bledsoe's mirror tactic, which is where a defender shadows and offensive player by mirroring everything he does with his body. Kawhi is a star in the making who should continue to develop, and Ibaka will have to make the Thunder into a top-five defense without Durant's scoring punch to start the season. Butler and Noah (but especially Butler) will benefit from being on national television a lot if Rose's comeback is successful.

All-NBA 3^rd Team

G Kyrie Irving

G Goran Dragic

F Kawhi Leonard

F Kevin Love

C Dwight Howard

It'll be tough for Love or Irving to make higher than 3^rd Team, since a lot of the credit for Cleveland's success will go to LeBron, but they're going to be so good it would be impossible not to have them on an All-NBA team. Moving on to the others, I think Dragic ekes the Suns into the eight seed in a loaded Western Conference, which should be good for 3^rd Team. Howard is still a dominant force at times, but no longer a consistent superstar. And as I said before, Kawhi is developing into a star. He'll get All-NBA honors this year.

All-NBA 2^nd Team

G Chris Paul

G James Harden

F Carmelo Anthony

F Blake Griffin

C LaMarcus Aldridge

I think Carmelo will tear it up once again this year, mainly because he's the only real individual offensive threat the Knicks have. The Griffin-Paul duo will have it's best year yet under Doc Rivers' keen eye. Harden will continue to put up big numbers (look for his assists to go up with the loss of Chandler Parsons' creating ability) while hopefully playing improved defense. Aldridge will be the best player on a high seeded Blazers team in the West.

All-NBA 1^st Team

G Stephen Curry

G Russell Westbrook

F LeBron James

F Kevin Durant

C Joakim Noah

The frontcourt remains from last year's First Team, as I think all of these guys continue to get it done, even though Durant will miss significant time to start the year. As for the guards, Westbrook is going to show everyone the true force of his talent and athleticism while Durant is out. There's a reason former player analysts like Charles Barkley love him so much. He'll be easily the best second banana on any team in the league. I also believe Curry will lead the Warriors to another playoff spot, and his numbers will be too much to ignore. I think he's a real MVP candidate as he could end the year with a 25-9 with two steals per game.

AWARDS

Comeback Player of the Year: Kobe Bryant

Both Bryant and Derrick Rose have a great storyline to go along with their season, as long as they come back well: Bryant is the stubborn, all-time great who came back from one of the worst injuries an athlete can suffer in the twilight of his career. Rose, by all accounts a great guy, has had a string of depressing, serious injuries that kept an MVP on the sidelines for a solid three years. I do think Rose will (and should) win it if he stays healthy, that hasn't been something to bank on in three years. Kobe will definitely put up numbers, though not at his normal elite pace. I see him finishing around a 19-4-4 or so. If both Bryant and Rose com back strong, it will be interesting to see which storyline the voters pick.

Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker

Everyone says Jabari is the safe pick here, and they're right. He's the most NBA ready rookie in terms of skills that apply right away. With Joel Embiid most likely sidelined for the year, only Noel and Wiggins are threats, and they're on terrible teams they didn't pick to be on. He's in the situation he wanted, being just a car ride away from home in Chicago. He's the safe pick.

(By the way, remember when the Bulls traded Luol Deng last year? That was obviously a tanking move, but Noah and Thibodeau wouldn't have it, carrying a less than scary Chicago squad to a four seed. What if they had gone along with the tank job, gotten to the lottery, and somehow ended up with another hometown kid- Jabari Parker? How scary would that roster be right now?)

6^th Man of the Year: Isaiah Thomas

Many people don't realize that Thomas was one of three players on the Kings to average 20 PPG last year. The Suns, already very deep at guard, are bringing a 20-point scorer off the bench! I think Thomas will shine as instant offense off the bench, and he fits well with Dragic and Bledsoe. Thomas has a very unorthodox game that makes up for his small stature. I like the Suns to make the playoffs in the West, even with the loss of Channing Frye.

Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers

With Durant out the first month and a half or so of the season, I think this is the year the Clippers get a top two seed in the West. They have a very talented team that just had another year to mesh, and they got that third big they were missing in Spencer Hawes. Griffin and Jordan are getting better together, and Chris Paul is still an elite point guard. But Rivers is a big reason the Clips have improved so much, especially Griffin and Jordan. It will all pay off for Rivers this year.

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka

Again, because Durant is going to miss an extended period of time, Ibaka will need to anchor a top five defense in OKC. It's necessary to combat the loss of Durant's offense. Ibaka has always been one of the league's best defenders, and everyone will get to see his defense under a microscope to to start the year, minus Durant. If Ibaka plays like the second guy on a playoff team, it'll be hard to stop OKC this year. The only thing that could derail them is the lack of a fifth guy to go with Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Reggie Jackson.

MVP: LeBron James

I know this is a boring pick, but I'm here to tell you what I think will happen, not a fun thing that could happen. Just look at the facts: This is the most talented team in the league. The only team that could match the Cavs' top three is OKC, and Cleveland has much more depth than them. Cleveland is going to be a monster offensively, which is the key to getting regular season wins. This team could easily win the most games in the league just on their offense alone. Plus, LeBron's defense will seem even better compared to his teammates' lackluster efforts. And we all know how the national media keys in on LeBron. Now that his biggest competition is gone to start the year in Durant, there's not really anybody else who stands out right now.