Well, here we are again, NFL Championship Sunday. A year ago we were talking about deflated footballs and fumbled onside kicks. Now we're talking about Brady vs Manning XVII and the possibility of high entertainment from the Carolina-Arizona game. So here are my picks for who will go to the Super Bowl. The home team is in all caps and the line and time of the games are given for reference.
(Could you tell that I'm very nervous about the Pats game? I really don't want them to lose, primarily so that people can't use it to say Manning is better than Brady when Manning's probably going to throw the ball about 20 times.)
DENVER over New England (-3), 3:00 ET.
I am a person who notices trends. I notice that the Broncos seem to have a lucky horseshoe up their butts worthy of Eli Manning. I notice that they're 10-2 in games decided by one score or less this year. I notice that they are 7-0 in their history when Ed Hochuli is the referee, and guess who's reffing this week's game? I notice that they have an extremely talented defense with multiple guys up front who can get to the passer through the Patriot's banged up offensive line. What's the key to beating the Pats? Win one-on-one match-ups up front and get pressure on Brady. Tom Brady is 2-6 in his career at Denver, including 0-2 in the postseason. In Denver and Miami, he just has trouble. The Broncos have the dirtiest defense in the NFL, led by despicable safety T.J. Ward, who have already said they will go after Gronkowski's knees. Remember that Ward was the one who tore Gronkowski's knee up when Ward was with Cleveland, and that Gronk has had to leave games against the Broncos with injuries twice. By the end of these two teams' regular season match-up, the Broncos were running the ball down the Patriots' throats. And again, remember how tough it is to play in Mile High.
That's why I was angry that the Pats practically threw in the towel the last two weeks of the regular season; now they have to go to Denver, where they especially have problems and demons. In the year where everyone counted Peyton Manning out, said he was done, couldn't throw anymore, then came back in relief in Week 17 and led the Broncos to a playoff win. Doesn't it feel destined for Manning to reach the Super Bowl in what could (and probably should) be his last season? When have the words "destiny" and "Manning" together ever worked out for the Patriots? I'm excited and not excited at the same time for this game. I'm sure we have the better team, yet I'm convinced that we can't win. I'm a nervous wreck, I know that if the Patriots let Denver hang around (the Patriots excel at letting teams stay in the game when they've outplayed them and the Broncos excel at hanging around when they've been outplayed), the Broncos will get all the calls, all the lucky breaks at the exact right time and they will win. I'm already preparing myself mentally. The only way the Pats win is if they win by double digits. They have to stomp them out from the jump, and I'm not confident they can do that given their history in Denver.
Denver 24, New England 23.
CAROLINA (-3) over Arizona, 6:40 ET.
I would thoroughly enjoy this game if it weren't for the game before it. This game has the potential to be an all-timer. On one side we have the Carolina Panthers, led by MVP candidate Cam Newton, a team that has lost only one game this season, and on the other side, we have the Cardinals, a team who many thought were even better than the Panthers. Let's break this one down on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Cam Newton leads the Panthers' attack. Newton is the leading candidate for MVP and will almost certainly win it, and it's because of his versatility. At 6'6, 250 lbs., Newton has the ability to run over linebackers and around defensive backs. He's almost unstoppable on the shotgun QB draw in short yardage situations, look for the Panthers to use that play when they need a yard or two. Newton has improved his passing game tenfold from previous years, and is now one of the league's premier pocket passers. I haven't seen him throw a lot on the run this year; in fact, he hardly ever leaves the pocket on passing plays. It's a bit of a mystery as to why he doesn't extend plays with his feet when he's known as one of the league's most mobile quarterbacks, but here's my theory: he's more of a downhill runner than an escape artist like Russell Wilson. Carolina leans on their running attack, with Newton and running backs Jonathon Stewart and Mike Tolbert, to wear down the defense and open lanes for their passing attack. Newton's primary weapons are pretty limited. He has top-3 tight end Greg Olsen as his security blanket and speedster Ted Ginn Jr. as a big play threat downfield. Ginn tends to drop a lot of easy catches, so be prepared Carolina fans. Other than those two, Cam's weapons to throw to are pretty limited.
As for the Cardinals defense, they're really good, but not great. They might still be great if it weren't for the loss of ball-hawking safety Tyrann Mathieu late in the season. They are led by cornerback Patrick Peterson, the stalwart of a solid secondary. They have multiple players up front who can create pressure on the quarterback, as we saw when they hit Aaron Rodgers repeatedly in Week 16. Their linebackers fly around and make plays. They have a really good defense that has the ability to stand up to the Panthers' offense. The question is, are they smart enough and hungry enough to do the things they need to do?
The other side of the ball is what really interests me. The Cardinals have a multi-talented offense that can beat you in many ways. QB Carson Palmer has perhaps the best weapons at receiver in the league, in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. He also has a really good rookie running back David Johnson who's capable of going for 170 yards and two touchdowns at any time. It's a matter of pick your poison with them as long as Palmer is on his game. We saw him have trouble in his first important game of the season last week, and it will be worth monitoring if he has deer-in-the-headlights syndrome again this week. Really, the only thing the Cardinals lack is a really good tight end. The offensive line has given Palmer time and the running backs running lanes all year.
The Panthers have a swarming defense led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis who make all the plays in the middle of the field. All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman anchors a really good secondary, and Shaq Thompson and Star Lotulelei lead the pass rush. They have playmakers all over the defense, guys with the ability to be game breakers. The loss of Jared Allen for this game isn't good, but it isn't back-breaking either. I think the key is in this match-up, because the Panthers should be able to score points on the Cardinals defense, albeit not easily. The Panthers should start this game by taking away the run game and forcing Carson Palmer to beat them. That sounds crazy for a QB who was an MVP candidate for the entire season, but he hasn't played a ton of big games in his career and it showed last week. Can Palmer beat the Panthers? And if the Panthers jump out to a lead, can they protect it better in the second half than they have in recent weeks?
Carolina 27, Arizona 24.
Last Week: 4-0
Playoffs: 7-1
Season: 96-46
(Could you tell that I'm very nervous about the Pats game? I really don't want them to lose, primarily so that people can't use it to say Manning is better than Brady when Manning's probably going to throw the ball about 20 times.)
DENVER over New England (-3), 3:00 ET.
I am a person who notices trends. I notice that the Broncos seem to have a lucky horseshoe up their butts worthy of Eli Manning. I notice that they're 10-2 in games decided by one score or less this year. I notice that they are 7-0 in their history when Ed Hochuli is the referee, and guess who's reffing this week's game? I notice that they have an extremely talented defense with multiple guys up front who can get to the passer through the Patriot's banged up offensive line. What's the key to beating the Pats? Win one-on-one match-ups up front and get pressure on Brady. Tom Brady is 2-6 in his career at Denver, including 0-2 in the postseason. In Denver and Miami, he just has trouble. The Broncos have the dirtiest defense in the NFL, led by despicable safety T.J. Ward, who have already said they will go after Gronkowski's knees. Remember that Ward was the one who tore Gronkowski's knee up when Ward was with Cleveland, and that Gronk has had to leave games against the Broncos with injuries twice. By the end of these two teams' regular season match-up, the Broncos were running the ball down the Patriots' throats. And again, remember how tough it is to play in Mile High.
That's why I was angry that the Pats practically threw in the towel the last two weeks of the regular season; now they have to go to Denver, where they especially have problems and demons. In the year where everyone counted Peyton Manning out, said he was done, couldn't throw anymore, then came back in relief in Week 17 and led the Broncos to a playoff win. Doesn't it feel destined for Manning to reach the Super Bowl in what could (and probably should) be his last season? When have the words "destiny" and "Manning" together ever worked out for the Patriots? I'm excited and not excited at the same time for this game. I'm sure we have the better team, yet I'm convinced that we can't win. I'm a nervous wreck, I know that if the Patriots let Denver hang around (the Patriots excel at letting teams stay in the game when they've outplayed them and the Broncos excel at hanging around when they've been outplayed), the Broncos will get all the calls, all the lucky breaks at the exact right time and they will win. I'm already preparing myself mentally. The only way the Pats win is if they win by double digits. They have to stomp them out from the jump, and I'm not confident they can do that given their history in Denver.
Denver 24, New England 23.
CAROLINA (-3) over Arizona, 6:40 ET.
I would thoroughly enjoy this game if it weren't for the game before it. This game has the potential to be an all-timer. On one side we have the Carolina Panthers, led by MVP candidate Cam Newton, a team that has lost only one game this season, and on the other side, we have the Cardinals, a team who many thought were even better than the Panthers. Let's break this one down on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Cam Newton leads the Panthers' attack. Newton is the leading candidate for MVP and will almost certainly win it, and it's because of his versatility. At 6'6, 250 lbs., Newton has the ability to run over linebackers and around defensive backs. He's almost unstoppable on the shotgun QB draw in short yardage situations, look for the Panthers to use that play when they need a yard or two. Newton has improved his passing game tenfold from previous years, and is now one of the league's premier pocket passers. I haven't seen him throw a lot on the run this year; in fact, he hardly ever leaves the pocket on passing plays. It's a bit of a mystery as to why he doesn't extend plays with his feet when he's known as one of the league's most mobile quarterbacks, but here's my theory: he's more of a downhill runner than an escape artist like Russell Wilson. Carolina leans on their running attack, with Newton and running backs Jonathon Stewart and Mike Tolbert, to wear down the defense and open lanes for their passing attack. Newton's primary weapons are pretty limited. He has top-3 tight end Greg Olsen as his security blanket and speedster Ted Ginn Jr. as a big play threat downfield. Ginn tends to drop a lot of easy catches, so be prepared Carolina fans. Other than those two, Cam's weapons to throw to are pretty limited.
As for the Cardinals defense, they're really good, but not great. They might still be great if it weren't for the loss of ball-hawking safety Tyrann Mathieu late in the season. They are led by cornerback Patrick Peterson, the stalwart of a solid secondary. They have multiple players up front who can create pressure on the quarterback, as we saw when they hit Aaron Rodgers repeatedly in Week 16. Their linebackers fly around and make plays. They have a really good defense that has the ability to stand up to the Panthers' offense. The question is, are they smart enough and hungry enough to do the things they need to do?
The other side of the ball is what really interests me. The Cardinals have a multi-talented offense that can beat you in many ways. QB Carson Palmer has perhaps the best weapons at receiver in the league, in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. He also has a really good rookie running back David Johnson who's capable of going for 170 yards and two touchdowns at any time. It's a matter of pick your poison with them as long as Palmer is on his game. We saw him have trouble in his first important game of the season last week, and it will be worth monitoring if he has deer-in-the-headlights syndrome again this week. Really, the only thing the Cardinals lack is a really good tight end. The offensive line has given Palmer time and the running backs running lanes all year.
The Panthers have a swarming defense led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis who make all the plays in the middle of the field. All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman anchors a really good secondary, and Shaq Thompson and Star Lotulelei lead the pass rush. They have playmakers all over the defense, guys with the ability to be game breakers. The loss of Jared Allen for this game isn't good, but it isn't back-breaking either. I think the key is in this match-up, because the Panthers should be able to score points on the Cardinals defense, albeit not easily. The Panthers should start this game by taking away the run game and forcing Carson Palmer to beat them. That sounds crazy for a QB who was an MVP candidate for the entire season, but he hasn't played a ton of big games in his career and it showed last week. Can Palmer beat the Panthers? And if the Panthers jump out to a lead, can they protect it better in the second half than they have in recent weeks?
Carolina 27, Arizona 24.
Last Week: 4-0
Playoffs: 7-1
Season: 96-46
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