Sunday, January 10, 2016

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

The NFL Playoffs are here! That's right it's that time of year again, when two teams can be completely overcome by the moment, play terribly, and the game will be called great simply because it was close.
In all seriousness, the NFL Playoffs are right there with March Madness as the most enjoyable sports viewing experiences. Maybe it's because each round is only one game, so  that raises the stakes. All I know is that I'm really excited whenever playoff football comes around and this year is no different. Let's get into these picks.

Kansas City (-3) over HOUSTON, Saturday, 4:35 ET.

The Chiefs are on a real hot streak right now. They haven't lost since OCTOBER 18TH. That's a really freaking long time to go without losing. They've been a bit unsung on their hot streak because they lost running back Jamaal Charles early in the year. Quarterback Alex Smith has played really well to make up for Charles' absence, but it's really been about the defense. They're getting after the passer, stuffing the run, and locking down receivers.
That doesn't bode well for the offensively challenged Texans. They've had a revolving door of quarterbacks this year due to injury and they too lost their star running back prematurely (Arian Foster). They have a great playmaker on the outside in receiver Deandre Hopkins, but the Patriots showed that if you can take him away effectively, the Texans have practically nowhere to go. The reasons for the Texans being in the playoffs are as follows: 1) They play in the AFC South, 2) Their defense 3) Deandre Hopkins. They do have a good defense, led by the ultimate game-breaker J.J. Watt, but really the only reason they're still playing is because they got the automatic spot from winning the putrid AFC South. They aren't really on the Chiefs' level, and I think the Chiefs will prove it.

Kansas City 31, Houston 10.


Pittsburgh (-3) over CINCINNATI, Saturday, 8:15 ET.

It seems like we get an all-AFC North playoff match-up every year. Whether it be a third Steelers-Ravens match, Bengals-Ravens, or Steelers-Bengals (just never the Browns, obviously), there's always a rubber match between two of these teams, and it's usually pretty entertaining.
Even though they lost star running back Le'Veon Bell for the season, no one can match the Steelers' weapons on offense. They have the prolific receiver Antonio Brown, physical specimen Martavis Bryant, a very nice third receiver in Markus Wheaton, and the always reliable tight end Heath Miller. And of course they have Big Ben Rothlisberger running the show at quarterback. They spread you out and throw it around, over and through you. They're in the top five in yards gained and points accounted for on offense, and that's with Rothlisberger missing some amount of time. Their defense is solid, but gives up yardage. They rely on turnovers.
I'm not sure if this will be an issue for the Bengals. They do have back-up QB AJ McCarron starting for the injured Andy Dalton, but Dalton has a bit of a reputation for choking in the postseason, so who knows if McCarron will be an upgrade? He did play in plenty of big games at Alabama, after all. the Bengals also have good weapons in receiver A.J. Green and tight end Tyler Eifert, but it's their two-headed monster of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard that sets them apart from the Steelers, who will be forced to start young Fitzgerald Toussaint at running back. The Bengals tortured playoff history recently bears mentioning, as well as the Steelers' incredibly successful history in the biggest games. We'll see what wins out, but I'm riding with the team that has the better QB and a history of success instead of heartbreak.

Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 23.


Seattle (-5) over MINNESOTA, Sunday, 1:05 ET.

The Seahawks finished the season pretty well, but I feel like people are overestimating their recent success. Let's not forget that they lost to the Rams in Week 16 and that big win over Arizona in Week 17 was overblown-- Arizona was merely trying to get into the playoffs without injury. However, the Seahawks turned the offensive load over to Russell Wilson with Marshawn Lynch out for a lot of the season, and he had some incredibly prolific numbers. That defense is still as swarming and physical as ever and they already beat the crap out of the Vikings in Minnesota earlier this year. They have reason to be confident.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off a win against the hated Packers in Green Bay to win the NFC North Crown. That's sure to be a confidence booster. Young Teddy Bridgewater has shown flashes all year and should improve over his performance against Seattle last time. They still have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and their run-oriented style should favor them in the frigid conditions in Minnesota as opposed to the Seahawks now more aerial approach. The Vikings have a great defense that gets after the passer, stuffs the run, and locks up receivers in the secondary. They also wrap up and tackle extremely well.
The only issue is that the Seahawks' defense does all of those things, and probably better than the Vikings'. The deciding factors will be the cold and the pressure. I'm not sure who will deal with the cold better, but I know the Seahawks have a lot more playoff experience, so I'm gonna roll with them. Look for a low-scoring game full of mistakes and sloppy play, which usually means a close game.

Seattle 14, Minnesota 13.


WASHINGTON over Green Bay (-1), Sunday, 4:40 ET.

So... rough end to the season for the Packers, huh? Getting killed by the Cardinals on the road and then losing to one of their most hated rivals in their house to lose the division the next week? Ouch. The Packers have significant issues on their offense, including the offensive line's struggles to protect Aaron Rodgers and his receivers' inability to get open. I've never seen Rodgers struggle like this before. He doesn't exactly get a pass, because he has been playing pretty poorly, but it isn't mostly his fault. The running game has also been lacking as Eddie Lacy has struggled. The defense isn't bad by any means, but it isn't good enough to make up for the offense's struggles.
Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has reminded me more of Aaron Rodgers over the last few weeks than Aaron Rodgers has. He was basically the best QB in the league in December, throwing incredibly accurately and pretty prolifically. He has a go-to guy in tight end Jordan Reed, a huge, fast, agile playmaker who gets as many targets in the red zone as anyone. He is freed up by receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside, and they try to keep things balanced with the running game behind a solid offensive line. The defense isn't anything special, but it's good, with talent up front to take advantage of Green Bay's offensive line issues and a good enough secondary to keep the struggling receivers in check. It will be a question of if Washington can stop Lacy in the running game and keep Rodgers from making plays with his feet. If they can do that, Washington should win.

Washington 27, Green Bay 24.


Last Week: 5-3
Regular Season: 89-45

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