Lots of storylines floating around this week, as there always are during the NFL Playoffs. On the AFC side: New England is getting key players healthy to go up against Kansas City who have won 11 in a row. For Pats fans, it may be hard not to have flashbacks to the beat down they suffered at Kansas City last year, but this one's in New England. Meanwhile, the great Peyton Manning is back in for the Broncos in what may be his final playoffs, against a banged up Steelers team without Antonio Brown and Ben Rothlisberger hampered by a shoulder injury. On the NFC side, the Packers head back to Arizona, the site of their worst loss with Aaron Rodgers as quarterback, in Week 16. And on Sunday, Seattle heads to Carolina looking for revenge for one of their many early season losses. Let's just hope the games live up to the hype. Home team is in all caps and the time, date, and line of the games are given for reference.
NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Kansas City, Saturday, 4:30 ET.
The Chiefs come in extraordinarily hot, having won their last 11 games. They've had a pretty soft schedule over that span, to be fair, but the only reason they started 1-5 is the tough schedule they had to start the season. They lost star running back Jamaal Charles early on, and have since relied on a three-headed attack at running back of Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and Knile Davis, all backs who have strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Their offense has been led by quarterback Alex Smith, who has used his weapons of tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin very effectively, as well as utilizing his very underrated athleticism to escape the pocket and make plays with his feet. It's Kansas City's defense, however, that has been doing the heavy lifting. They're very effective at rushing the passer and stuffing the run with their ability to push up front. They also have a very solid secondary, led by Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry, that allows the team the flexibility to run blitz, man, zone, whatever they please. It's basically the same defense that picked Brady off twice and held the Patriots to 14 points in Week 4 last year.
Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled from starting 10-0 to a 12-4 finish after being battered by injuries for most of the year. They lost their last two games to fall out of the number one seed in the AFC. However, those four losses came without Julian Edelman who went out in Week 10 and will make his return to the offense this week. No one knows if Edelman will be as quick and shifty in his first game back, but he's Brady's go-to guy and just his presence should open up the offense more than any game since he went up. The Patriots used the bye week over the Wild Card round to improve the health of players such as Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Sebastien Vollmer, and Tom Brady. Basically, they're going to be at almost full power for the first time since Week 10, and we all saw how that was going. When the Pats are at full health, or 90%, they're almost unbeatable at home. We'll see if the Chiefs can walk into Gillette Stadium and beat them.
New England 28, Kansas City 23.
ARIZONA (-7.5) over Green Bay, Saturday, 8:15 ET.
Back in Week 16, the Cardinals killed the Packers 38-8 at home. They locked up Green Bay's receivers, got a ton of pressure on Aaron Rodgers (forcing him into two turnovers), and threw the ball all over them en route to the blowout.
The Packers should play better this time, though. The offensive line is much healthier now than it was against Arizona last time, and it showed in Green Bay's performance against Washington last week. Not only did they give Rodgers more time than he had had in weeks, they opened up running lanes for Eddie Lacy and James Starks. When the running game has success, it gives the quarterback time and opens up lanes down the field for the receivers. That's what we saw from Green Bay last week in Washington, but Arizona is a much harder test. Carson Palmer is playing the best football of his career and he has about four guys he can throw to at any time, as well as a beast of a rookie running back named David Johnson. That's not to mention their defense, which already proved its worth against Green Bay last time. They have a really strong defensive line and a suffocating defensive backfield. I just don't see how the Packers get it done, even with the improvements they made last week. Arizona is just too good.
Arizona 31, Green Bay 24.
CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle, Sunday, 1:05 ET.
So... Seattle didn't look very good last week. They shouldn't even be playing this week, honestly. The only reason they are is because Blair Walsh pulled out the biggest choke job in the history of NFL kickers. The defense did fine, but that was probably mostly the frigid weather and the fact that Adrian Peterson is the worst big game running back EVER. The offense didn't put up any points through three quarters, only scored a touchdown because of a lucky play where a snap went over Russell Wilson's head, bounced straight back up into his hands, and Tyler Lockett was wide open down field. If not for that pay, the Vikings would be playing this weekend. Seattle just isn't as good as Carolina. Russell Wilson was playing really well earlier this year, but the offensive line hasn't been able to protect him all year. I think Carolina's defense will attack them.
As for Carolina's offense, nobody has played better throughout the year than Cam Newton. Nobody is as versatile at the QB position. He run around, over, and through any defensive player on the field, and his throwing accuracy and decision-making has greatly improved. He's just unstoppable at times, while his only great weapon to throw to is tight end Greg Olsen. They're doing it with Cam and Jonathon Stewart running the ball, then making big plays in the passing game with Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr. down the field. They also do it with a suffocating defense, led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, cornerback Josh Norman, and defensive lineman Star Lotulelei. They just put pressure on every area of the field, it's hard to find a weakness in their defense. I just think that Carolina is better than Seattle.
Carolina 24, Seattle 20.
DENVER (-6.5) over Pittsburgh, Sunday, 4:40 ET.
Believe me, there is nothing I'd rather do than pick the Steelers in this game. I want the very injured Steelers coming to Foxboro next week, where the Patriots already beat Pittsburgh earlier this year, not the Patriots going to Denver to play the healthy and supremely lucky Broncos, where the Pats have already lost this year. But that's the thing isn't it? The Broncos are healthy, the Steelers are not. If they were healthy, I would pick them, but I wouldn't know who I would want to win and play the Pats. But that's not what matters. Without Antonio Brown, with Ben Rothlisberger possibly unable to throw more than 15 yards downfield, with no legit running backs, I don't see how Pittsburgh wins the game. They just won't be able to score. Their defense could keep them in the game because they're good against the run which is what the Broncos rely on when Manning is back there. If they can make Peyton throw the ball 30+ times, force some turnovers, maybe create a defensive touchdown, that's their best chance to win, because the offense is going to struggle. But I don't think their defense is good enough to win them the game when their offense is so banged up. It would be asking for a complete reversal of who the Steelers are as a team; all year they've relied on the offense to gain huge chunks of yardage and outscore their opponents, hoping the defense can create a turnover or two and make the offense work for their points. It would have to be a complete change in who they are, and I don't think a team can just switch their entire approach in one week during the playoffs against a good team. Sorry Pittsburgh.
Denver 24, Pittsburgh 17.
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1
Season: 92-46
NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Kansas City, Saturday, 4:30 ET.
The Chiefs come in extraordinarily hot, having won their last 11 games. They've had a pretty soft schedule over that span, to be fair, but the only reason they started 1-5 is the tough schedule they had to start the season. They lost star running back Jamaal Charles early on, and have since relied on a three-headed attack at running back of Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and Knile Davis, all backs who have strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Their offense has been led by quarterback Alex Smith, who has used his weapons of tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin very effectively, as well as utilizing his very underrated athleticism to escape the pocket and make plays with his feet. It's Kansas City's defense, however, that has been doing the heavy lifting. They're very effective at rushing the passer and stuffing the run with their ability to push up front. They also have a very solid secondary, led by Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry, that allows the team the flexibility to run blitz, man, zone, whatever they please. It's basically the same defense that picked Brady off twice and held the Patriots to 14 points in Week 4 last year.
Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled from starting 10-0 to a 12-4 finish after being battered by injuries for most of the year. They lost their last two games to fall out of the number one seed in the AFC. However, those four losses came without Julian Edelman who went out in Week 10 and will make his return to the offense this week. No one knows if Edelman will be as quick and shifty in his first game back, but he's Brady's go-to guy and just his presence should open up the offense more than any game since he went up. The Patriots used the bye week over the Wild Card round to improve the health of players such as Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Sebastien Vollmer, and Tom Brady. Basically, they're going to be at almost full power for the first time since Week 10, and we all saw how that was going. When the Pats are at full health, or 90%, they're almost unbeatable at home. We'll see if the Chiefs can walk into Gillette Stadium and beat them.
New England 28, Kansas City 23.
ARIZONA (-7.5) over Green Bay, Saturday, 8:15 ET.
Back in Week 16, the Cardinals killed the Packers 38-8 at home. They locked up Green Bay's receivers, got a ton of pressure on Aaron Rodgers (forcing him into two turnovers), and threw the ball all over them en route to the blowout.
The Packers should play better this time, though. The offensive line is much healthier now than it was against Arizona last time, and it showed in Green Bay's performance against Washington last week. Not only did they give Rodgers more time than he had had in weeks, they opened up running lanes for Eddie Lacy and James Starks. When the running game has success, it gives the quarterback time and opens up lanes down the field for the receivers. That's what we saw from Green Bay last week in Washington, but Arizona is a much harder test. Carson Palmer is playing the best football of his career and he has about four guys he can throw to at any time, as well as a beast of a rookie running back named David Johnson. That's not to mention their defense, which already proved its worth against Green Bay last time. They have a really strong defensive line and a suffocating defensive backfield. I just don't see how the Packers get it done, even with the improvements they made last week. Arizona is just too good.
Arizona 31, Green Bay 24.
CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle, Sunday, 1:05 ET.
So... Seattle didn't look very good last week. They shouldn't even be playing this week, honestly. The only reason they are is because Blair Walsh pulled out the biggest choke job in the history of NFL kickers. The defense did fine, but that was probably mostly the frigid weather and the fact that Adrian Peterson is the worst big game running back EVER. The offense didn't put up any points through three quarters, only scored a touchdown because of a lucky play where a snap went over Russell Wilson's head, bounced straight back up into his hands, and Tyler Lockett was wide open down field. If not for that pay, the Vikings would be playing this weekend. Seattle just isn't as good as Carolina. Russell Wilson was playing really well earlier this year, but the offensive line hasn't been able to protect him all year. I think Carolina's defense will attack them.
As for Carolina's offense, nobody has played better throughout the year than Cam Newton. Nobody is as versatile at the QB position. He run around, over, and through any defensive player on the field, and his throwing accuracy and decision-making has greatly improved. He's just unstoppable at times, while his only great weapon to throw to is tight end Greg Olsen. They're doing it with Cam and Jonathon Stewart running the ball, then making big plays in the passing game with Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr. down the field. They also do it with a suffocating defense, led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, cornerback Josh Norman, and defensive lineman Star Lotulelei. They just put pressure on every area of the field, it's hard to find a weakness in their defense. I just think that Carolina is better than Seattle.
Carolina 24, Seattle 20.
DENVER (-6.5) over Pittsburgh, Sunday, 4:40 ET.
Believe me, there is nothing I'd rather do than pick the Steelers in this game. I want the very injured Steelers coming to Foxboro next week, where the Patriots already beat Pittsburgh earlier this year, not the Patriots going to Denver to play the healthy and supremely lucky Broncos, where the Pats have already lost this year. But that's the thing isn't it? The Broncos are healthy, the Steelers are not. If they were healthy, I would pick them, but I wouldn't know who I would want to win and play the Pats. But that's not what matters. Without Antonio Brown, with Ben Rothlisberger possibly unable to throw more than 15 yards downfield, with no legit running backs, I don't see how Pittsburgh wins the game. They just won't be able to score. Their defense could keep them in the game because they're good against the run which is what the Broncos rely on when Manning is back there. If they can make Peyton throw the ball 30+ times, force some turnovers, maybe create a defensive touchdown, that's their best chance to win, because the offense is going to struggle. But I don't think their defense is good enough to win them the game when their offense is so banged up. It would be asking for a complete reversal of who the Steelers are as a team; all year they've relied on the offense to gain huge chunks of yardage and outscore their opponents, hoping the defense can create a turnover or two and make the offense work for their points. It would have to be a complete change in who they are, and I don't think a team can just switch their entire approach in one week during the playoffs against a good team. Sorry Pittsburgh.
Denver 24, Pittsburgh 17.
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1
Season: 92-46
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