GSW at OKC Game 6: What's Going Down Tonight

I am a basketball fan for whom legacies hold a lot of significance. The place of a player as he compares to others throughout history is very important to me. The same goes for teams. I love to argue which players were better, which teams would have won a series against one another, etc. For example, the Cleveland Cavaliers just closed out the Toronto Raptors last night to secure a trip to the NBA Finals. This will be LeBron James' sixth straight Finals appearance. That number is absolutely mind-boggling to me. It's so incredible that only players from the 1960's Celtics had ever done it before- which was a different era with less talent in the league. Things like that, things that give a player historical significance, matter to me. It should matter to everyone.

With that being said, there's even more on the line in Oklahoma City tonight when the Warriors play at the Thunder. The Warriors won Game 5 at home after going down 3-1 in the series with a couple of blowout losses at Oklahoma City. Obviously they need to win tonight to keep the series going and set up a winner-take-all Game 7 back in Oakland, and obviously OKC would like to avoid heading back to Oracle Arena, but there's more than just that in the balance tonight. There are real historical stakes riding on this game. Let's break them down for each team.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

• If the Warriors go down tonight, or even if they lose Game 7, this historical 73-9 season loses almost all significance. I thought Bill Simmons made a good point on his podcast this week that it will be remembered like the 18-1 Patriots from 2007; people will say "Oh yeah that regular season was fun... BUT then they choked in the Western Conference Finals." The Warriors have probably lost the chance to be considered the best team of all time with their play this series, but they still have the chance win back-to-back titles which puts them among some of the greatest teams ever.
• If the Warriors go out with their tails between their legs in six games, all of the older players who questioned their greatness will be validated. Nobody will be able to say that Oscar Robertson and Charles Barkley were wrong, especially since the guy who all the old-schoolers swear by is on the other side in Russell Westbrook.
• Similarly, there will have to be a question of the Warriors dominance and play style going forward. For the last two years much of the league has fallen in love with the Warriors and their high-octane style of play predicated on crazy threes. Many writers and even team executives have thought that the Warriors will continue their dominance for the next 5 years. I love how the Warriors play and think the advanced-metrics say that a lot of three-point attempts is the best way to play, but the Thunder have exposed the weaknesses in the Warriors' style. The Thunder have used their incredible length at all positions to protect the rim, contest jumpers, and close passing lanes, which has suffocated the Warriors' ball movement and limited easy looks. Taking away the easy shots is key in stopping the Warriors because once Steph Curry and Klay Thompson see one or two go in, they can hit just about anything thereafter. And once those threes start to drop, every other part of the team's game improves because they gain energy from those shots. All I'm saying is that now we have to seriously question if the Warriors will run roughshod through the league with their incredible shooting and passing like we thought they would, because the Thunder have given the blueprint on how to beat them.
• If Steph Curry wants to begin his ascent into the pantheon of all-time greats, or at least leave little doubt as to his legacy, he needs to have a great game. He cannot go down with only one and a half good games in this series in the year that he won the MVP on the greatest regular season team ever. They definitely can't get blown out and he probably has to have a similar game to the one he had in Oklahoma City earlier this year, when he dropped 46 and hit the game-winner from half-court. He needs to be heroic if he wants to continue his ascent among the all-timers. 

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

• If the Thunder revert to their regular season identity and choke away three straight games with a trip to the Finals on the line, there's still the slightest possibility that Kevin Durant leaves over the next two summers. I still believe he will sign a two-year contract with a one-year opt-out to return to the Thunder and maximize his payday, but it's still a possibility, especially if Curry and the Warriors catch fire and blow them out of the next two games (by the way, that's always a possibility with the Warriors).
• If this Thunder team wins the title, it will be among the greatest postseason accomplishments in NBA history. They will have taken down the Spurs, Warriors, and LeBron in three consecutive series. That's a 67-win team, a 73-win team, and the greatest player of the current generation. The only team it's comparable to is the 1995 Rockets, the only team to have to play four 50-win teams on the way to the title. Those are close, but I would lean towards the Thunder due to the dominance they displayed over two of the best regular season teams ever.
• Russell Westbrook has harnessed his world-class athleticism and crazy competive motor and combined them with cerebral playmaking and decision-making. Ever since they were blown out by the Spurs in Game 1, he's made the decision to get other guys involved and look for his shot in the best situations, like transition or big-man match-ups. He's also been very good on Curry defensively, part of which comes from him cutting down on his defensive lapses and part of which is credited to his relentlessness in all areas of the game wearing Curry (and the rest of the Warriors) down. I though this was another good point from Simmons; Westbrook is always going at the opposition, and it has an effect on a team when they always have to worry about a guy coming at them with everything he has. Even when they make a shot he's getting the ball and coming right back at them down the other end. My point is that Westbrook has become the player many wanted him to be, and he and Durant remind me of Shaq and Kobe back in the day in that it's really hard to beat a team with two of the best three players in the league. That's incredible.
• A title would give Kevin Durant historical significance above anything else. Durant is already one of the best scorers the game has ever seen, but his growth during this playoff run has been awesome. Not only has he dropped forty a few times this playoffs, he's using his length to rebound, defend the rim, and be the secret defensive weapon against Curry. Coach Billy Donovan has stuck Durant on Draymond Green so that Durant can switch on the Curry-Green pick-and-roll and effectively stifle that play's effectiveness. Durant has stepped up his overall game throughout the playoffs and has been a leader of the Thunder's renaissance. We might be seeing him climb the ranks of all-time players into the top-20, especially if he can finish with a title over his long-time nemesis LeBron.
• On the flip-side, losing a 3-1 lead in the Conference Finals would add to the legendary missed chances the Thunder have sustained since the James Harden trade. In the summer of 2012, everyone thought that the young Thunder, coming off a Finals appearance, were set for the future. A few months later, James Harden was traded. The next playoffs, Russell Westbrook was hurt in a collision with Patrick Beverly in the first round, and was lost for the playoffs. The Thunder lost in the next round to Memphis. The next year, they ran into a ball-moving, retribution-seeking buzzsaw that was the 2014 Spurs. And then Durant got hurt last year and the Thunder missed the playoffs. The constant missed opportunities have colored the public opinion of the Thunder to the point that I was surprised at how well they have played with everything on the line this playoffs. If they blow another chance, this being the worst yet, would be devastating to the franchise. It's possible that the group would disband and we would lose an incredible team in a similar way to the 1990's Magic. The Thunder are right in the moment for historical significance in the NBA, and now it's on them. What are they going to do?

So here's the point: It's fun to have these subplots going on in your head as you watch a game. It gives the game higher stakes and you're damn sure that the guys out on the floor are thinking about it, too. The energy that is leading up to this game is real, it's legitimate, it's palpable. This game is important. It's an event. It matters. And when the clock hits triple zeros tonight, some sort of history is going to be made. 

Top Four Teams For Kevin Durant To Choose This Summer

One of the top story lines of the past two seasons in the NBA has been Kevin Durant's impending free agency. This summer, Durant will hit the free market, and almost every team in the league has been clearing cap space, gearing up to make an offer for one of league history's best scorers. Durant is one of the league's top five players, a totally unique scorer; 6'11, 235, ability to handle the ball like a guard and pull up from thirty feet, necessary speed and quickness to get open, incredible length so that it doesn't matter if he's well-guarded or not, he's getting a good look at the basket. There is no way to guard this guy (unless Kawhi Leonard is on your team and even then it's a toss up). Durant has the type of talent that can change the balance of power in the NBA... depending on where he goes. So where will Durant choose to go? Or will he stay in Oklahoma City? Here are his top four possible destinations, according to me. (FYI: These teams need to meet the following recommendations: KD would be the go-to scorer, would have at least a large share of the leadership, and the team with KD would have a legitimate shot at winning a championship/make it to the finals. I don't think KD is going to the Spurs or Warriors to take a back seat for a ring. He wants to earn it. Also, this is where I think KD should go, not where I think he will go.)

4) Washington Wizards

This was a huge story after the Wizards' playoff run last year took them near the Eastern Conference Finals. Durant is from the D.C. area, and that paired with his fit alongside guards John Wall and Bradley Beal got this potential landing spot trending. While I still think KD would have success in D.C. and the fit with Wall (an incredible playmaker and passer) is still great, this choice is dropping off the list of true contenders for Durant. The Wizards are sitting at tenth in the East right now, out of the playoff picture, and legitimately disappointing after last season's success. Wall has been one of the league's best point guards, but everyone else have been letdowns. Bradley Beal has proven that he cannot stay healthy, the big men Nene and Gortat have fallen off the map, and the bench is awful. In addition, coach Randy Wittman, after seeming to finally understand the pace-and-space, three-point centric playing style in the playoffs last year, has gone back to the 90's style, clogged-up toilet bowl offense predicated on mid-range jumpers. It would be a good story, but I don't think Kevin Durant's best chance to win is in Washington.

3) Miami Heat

The Heat have rebuilt very quickly after the loss of LeBron James in the summer of 2014, and Pat Riley deserves a ton of credit for his savvy moves; I just knew he'd somehow end up stealing Justise Winslow at number 10, and Hassan Whiteside can dominate down low for a good value. After he looked to be on the decline in LeBron's last year in Miami, Dwyane Wade has come back stronger this year, showing more signs of the old Flash than in any season since LeBron's second title campaign. Everyone in the Miami organization deserves props for not letting themselves fold with the loss of LeBron and Chris Bosh's scary health issues. If KD wants to go somewhere where he can learn the science and method of winning, nowhere's better than the Miami Mafia (creds to Jalen Rose). However, the uncertainty of Bosh's health, Whiteside's future, and Wade's mileage place Miami behind the next two teams on this list.

2) Boston Celtics

MEMO TO KEVIN DURANT: THE CELTICS ARE REALLY GOOD. THIS ISN'T JUST A CELTICS FAN BEING A HOMER. BOSTON ACTUALLY IS REALLY GOOD. They're third in the Eastern Conference and headed to the playoffs for the second straight year. They have an assortment of fun, young talent (like Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk) mixed with cagey veterans (Amir Johnson and Avery Bradley). On the court they are led by point guard Isaiah Thomas, a first-time all-star this year and possibly the best under-six-foot scorer in NBA history. But the real reason Durant should heavily consider the Celtics? Coach Brad Stevens is easily one of the league's top four coaches. He's motivated this young Celtics team into becoming a top-five defense, despite a roster with multiple below average defenders. He knows exactly how to run a game, when to call timeout, which plays to draw up to get his guys a good look. All of his players love him and he's eked out every drop of production from a roster that isn't exactly striking on paper. What the Celtics lack is a star, a go-to-guy who they know they can get production from every night, and that's exactly what Durant can provide. Other factors that would encourage a Durant/Boston marriage is the leisure of playing in the Eastern Conference, Boston's history of excellence, and Durant's good fit with the system and personnel. Unlike OKC, Boston runs a real offense, and Durant wouldn't have to work so hard to get shots at the end of games. As a Boston fan, I'm stoked at the slightest possibility of Durant going to Beantown. As a writer and budding analyst, I know there's somewhere safer and probably better for Durant to end up...

1) Oklahoma City Thunder

Here's what I think is going to happen this summer; Durant will re-sign on a one-year deal to make one more title run with Westbrook, then re-enter free agency again the next summer alongside Westbrook when the salary cap is higher, as well as his potential payday. Lost in the glow of Golden State's blazing sun of basketball destruction (and, to a lesser extent, the Spurs) is the fact that the Thunder have reincorporated Durant into the team as seamlessly as before he was injured, and with a little luck and a few coaching and personnel tweaks, this team is absolutely capable of winning a championship. It's a better option in terms of the possibility of winning a title than the other options, anyway. Could that change by this summer? Of course it could. But this option gives Durant the most flexibility and the best chance to win in the short-term. None of these other options include a top-five player alongside Durant, and that's what OKC has to offer. 

Super Bowl Pick

Alright, here we are. The last game of the year. For two teams, the entire season comes down to one more game. The ways that the two teams, the Panthers and the Broncos, got here are very different. The Panthers dominated their way through the regular season to the tune of 15-1, played an incredible first half against Seattle, and culminated in four quarters of blasting the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Broncos' season was predicated on getting dominated, hanging around, and ultimately winning in the luckiest way possible in just about every game. They went 12-4, won a game they got worked in against Pittsburgh, and then utilized their tremendous defense to eke out a win against my Patriots last week.
Many people have been saying that this Super Bowl will be reminiscent of the 43-8 beat down the Broncos suffered at the hands of the Seahawks two years ago. While I agree that trouble could definitely be in store for Peyton Manning in a similar way this year, it isn't the same dynamic. John Elway used that Super Bowl to begin the creation of the NFL's best defense, and it sure looked like that last week. The Broncos absolutely eviscerated Tom Brady and the Patriots' offensive line, hitting Brady an astounding 20 times and forcing him into two interceptions. They held the vaunted Patriots offense to just 18 points, and it was a total team effort. It started with the secondary cutting off Brady's quick throws to Edelman and Amendola, and they laid crushing hits on any receiver who actually did find enough space to catch the ball. The defensive line took over from there, winning one-on-one match-ups with the depleted New England offensive line and putting more pressure on Brady than a QB has had to face in about 10 years. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware lead the pass rush and Miller put on one of the all-time playoff performances by a defensive player last week. He was everywhere, and his 2.5 sacks don't even reflect how many times he hit Brady. He also had a key interception in Patriots territory leading to a Broncos TD. All year everyone said the Broncos had the league's best defense, and they sure looked like it last week. But they haven't faced someone like Cam Newton yet.
Newton leads the Panthers' offense on and off the field. He has grown from being a pouty, whiny college kid to a thoughtful, confident, charismatic leader of the league's best team. Newton is right up there with Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers among the league's best dual threats at the quarterback position, accounting for 45 total touchdowns and 4,473 total yards. At 6'5 250, he's been an unstoppable combination of power and speed running the ball ever since college, but what has made him this year's leading candidate for MVP is his evolution in the passing game. He's now a premier pocket passer, standing tall and strong in the pocket and delivering throws down the field to his receivers. His accomplishments are made all the more impressive when considering his situation at receiver. Tight end Greg Olsen has been playing at an all-pro level, but other than him, the Panthers don't have the kind of weapons on the outside that the league's best offense usually has. Second year star wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL before the season, so Newton has had to rely on Ted Ginn Jr. as his number one receiver. Ginn is a great deep threat with incredible speed, but isn't the best route runner and can generally be counted on for at least one or two drops per game. The Denver defense has to be able to take advantage of Carolina's dearth at wideout, because they will need to focus on the Panthers' league-best running game. Running back Jonathan Stewart is one of the league's most underrated runners, a strong and dynamic back who can cut through a defense or run right through it. The Panthers are also one of the only teams who still use a fullback in the running game, Mike Tolbert, who when running through defenses is best compared to a bowling ball toppling pins. And then, of course, is Newton, who had 636 running yards this year and ten rushing touchdowns. On any given play any of those three can get the ball and hurt you, or Newton can throw the ball to hurt you. It's this dynamic ability that made the Panthers so unstoppable this year.
The Panthers have a stifling defense to their credit as well, though perhaps not as swarming as that of the Broncos. They have one of the league's best two defensive players in linebacker Luke Kuechly, who can get to the QB, cover running backs and tight ends, return interceptions for touchdowns, or just lay the smack down on a running back who thinks he has a hole. Kuechly was paired with fellow linebacker Thomas Davis, the poor man's Kuechly, for much of the season, but Davis suffered a broken forearm last week. Although he says he will play, it will be something to watch out for. The Panthers have a defensive line almost as effective in getting to the passer and stopping the run as Denver's is, led by Star Lotulelei, Charles Johnson, and the returning Jared Allen. All-pro cornerback Josh Norman anchors the secondary, which has been a turnover-creating machine this year, which doesn't bode well for Peyton Manning.
Speaking of Peyton, I heard an astounding stat about him recently; he's about to join a select group of quarterbacks to start four Super Bowls, but he will be the first to do so with four different coaches. As a Pats fan, I've always sung the praises of Brady and tried to focus on Manning's shortcomings, but there's no denying Manning's incredible run. He does, however, have to win another Super Bowl to be mentioned with Brady and Montana and Unitas among the greatest quarterbacks to ever play, and he faces a steep challenge against this Panthers juggernaut. Although he's played better since returning from injury, simply limiting turnovers will not be enough against this Panthers team. Sure, he threw for two touchdowns and no interceptions last week against New England, but he didn't have a drive go more than 50 yards after the first one. That New England defense laid the blueprint for how to stifle the Broncos offense, and the Panthers have a better defense by any calculation. Sure, Manning has some of the best weapons in the league to throw to in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but the Pats essentially held them in check for most of the game. Manning's two touchdowns went to tight end Owen Daniels, and you can be sure the Panthers won't let Owen Daniels beat them. There isn't much hope for Denver in the running game either, which also struggled against the Pats last game, when the Patriots don't ave a great run defense and the Panthers do. It's going to be hard for the Broncos to score,which is why I think that Manning could have similar issues to that Super Bowl of two years ago, when he may have been playing a better defense, but was still at the height of his powers coming of his record breaking 55 TD season. This year's version of Manning is still apt to missing throws and putting the ball in the hands of the defense. It's just a matter of if the Panthers will be able to take advantage, unlike the Patriots.
So now that I've laid it all out for you, here's my pick...

Carolina (-5) over Denver, 6:30 ET.

What you have to remember about my picks is that they're about who I think will win, not who I would bet on. If it was who I would bet on, I would go with the Broncos because they keep every game close because of their defense. I don't think they will lose by five points or more, because of their defense, like I said, and the lucky horseshoe sticking out of their butts. They are absolutely the luckiest team football has ever seen, and that, along with the possibility of a fairy tale ending for Manning in a career full of bad luck, scares me the most about this game. I'm going to be honest; I don't want the Broncos to win. Come 5:30, I will be rooting heartily for the Panthers, because I'm a Patriots fan and that game from two weeks ago is still pissing me off. However, that doesn't change my pick. I really do think that the Panthers have the better team, but I also appreciate that the Broncos' eerie ability to stay in games in which they are being dominated is a skill. But I think this is the week that their luck runs out. The Panthers are a freaking juggernaut that laid one of the all-time playoff poundings on a really good Cardinals team two weeks ago. They forced Carson Palmer into six turnovers. Remember, this guy was an MVP candidate for much of the year, and the Panthers annihilated him. How do you think old noodle-armed Peyton Manning is going to fare against this defense? I think the Broncos defense will keep them in the game, perhaps even recording a defensive touchdown. But I just don't believe that Manning can get it done against this defense. We'll see.

Carolina 20, Denver 13.
Playoffs: 9-1
Overall Season: 98-46

NFL Championship Sunday Picks

Well, here we are again, NFL Championship Sunday. A year ago we were talking about deflated footballs and fumbled onside kicks. Now we're talking about Brady vs Manning XVII and the possibility of high entertainment from the Carolina-Arizona game. So here are my picks for who will go to the Super Bowl. The home team is in all caps and the line and time of the games are given for reference.
(Could you tell that I'm very nervous about the Pats game? I really don't want them to lose, primarily so that people can't use it to say Manning is better than Brady when Manning's probably going to throw the ball about 20 times.)

DENVER over New England (-3), 3:00 ET.

I am a person who notices trends. I notice that the Broncos seem to have a lucky horseshoe up their butts worthy of Eli Manning. I notice that they're 10-2 in games decided by one score or less this year. I notice that they are 7-0 in their history when Ed Hochuli is the referee, and guess who's reffing this week's game? I notice that they have an extremely talented defense with multiple guys up front who can get to the passer through the Patriot's banged up offensive line. What's the key to beating the Pats? Win one-on-one match-ups up front and get pressure on Brady. Tom Brady is 2-6 in his career at Denver, including 0-2 in the postseason. In Denver and Miami, he just has trouble. The Broncos have the dirtiest defense in the NFL, led by despicable safety T.J. Ward, who have already said they will go after Gronkowski's knees. Remember that Ward was the one who tore Gronkowski's knee up when Ward was with Cleveland, and that Gronk has had to leave games against the Broncos with injuries twice. By the end of these two teams' regular season match-up, the Broncos were running the ball down the Patriots' throats. And again, remember how tough it is to play in Mile High.
That's why I was angry that the Pats practically threw in the towel the last two weeks of the regular season; now they have to go to Denver, where they especially have problems and demons. In the year where everyone counted Peyton Manning out, said he was done, couldn't throw anymore, then came back in relief in Week 17 and led the Broncos to a playoff win. Doesn't it feel destined for Manning to reach the Super Bowl in what could (and probably should) be his last season? When have the words "destiny" and "Manning" together ever worked out for the Patriots? I'm excited and not excited at the same time for this game. I'm sure we have the better team, yet I'm convinced that we can't win. I'm a nervous wreck, I know that if the Patriots let Denver hang around (the Patriots excel at letting teams stay in the game when they've outplayed them and the Broncos excel at hanging around when they've been outplayed), the Broncos will get all the calls, all the lucky breaks at the exact right time and they will win. I'm already preparing myself mentally. The only way the Pats win is if they win by double digits. They have to stomp them out from the jump, and I'm not confident they can do that given their history in Denver.

Denver 24, New England 23.


CAROLINA (-3) over Arizona, 6:40 ET.

I would thoroughly enjoy this game if it weren't for the game before it. This game has the potential to be an all-timer. On one side we have the Carolina Panthers, led by MVP candidate Cam Newton, a team that has lost only one game this season, and on the other side, we have the Cardinals, a team who many thought were even better than the Panthers. Let's break this one down on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Cam Newton leads the Panthers' attack. Newton is the leading candidate for MVP and will almost certainly win it, and it's because of his versatility. At 6'6, 250 lbs., Newton has the ability to run over linebackers and around defensive backs. He's almost unstoppable on the shotgun QB draw in short yardage situations, look for the Panthers to use that play when they need a yard or two. Newton has improved his passing game tenfold from previous years, and is now one of the league's premier pocket passers. I haven't seen him throw a lot on the run this year; in fact, he hardly ever leaves the pocket on passing plays. It's a bit of a mystery as to why he doesn't extend plays with his feet when he's known as one of the league's most mobile quarterbacks, but here's my theory: he's more of a downhill runner than an escape artist like Russell Wilson. Carolina leans on their running attack, with Newton and running backs Jonathon Stewart and Mike Tolbert, to wear down the defense and open lanes for their passing attack. Newton's primary weapons are pretty limited. He has top-3 tight end Greg Olsen as his security blanket and speedster Ted Ginn Jr. as a big play threat downfield. Ginn tends to drop a lot of easy catches, so be prepared Carolina fans. Other than those two, Cam's weapons to throw to are pretty limited.
As for the Cardinals defense, they're really good, but not great. They might still be great if it weren't for the loss of ball-hawking safety Tyrann Mathieu late in the season. They are led by cornerback Patrick Peterson, the stalwart of a solid secondary. They have multiple players up front who can create pressure on the quarterback, as we saw when they hit Aaron Rodgers repeatedly in Week 16. Their linebackers fly around and make plays. They have a really good defense that has the ability to stand up to the Panthers' offense. The question is, are they smart enough and hungry enough to do the things they need to do?
The other side of the ball is what really interests me. The Cardinals have a multi-talented offense that can beat you in many ways. QB Carson Palmer has perhaps the best weapons at receiver in the league, in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. He also has a really good rookie running back David Johnson who's capable of going for 170 yards and two touchdowns at any time. It's a matter of pick your poison with them as long as Palmer is on his game. We saw him have trouble in his first important game of the season last week, and it will be worth monitoring if he has deer-in-the-headlights syndrome again this week. Really, the only thing the Cardinals lack is a really good tight end. The offensive line has given Palmer time and the running backs running lanes all year.
The Panthers have a swarming defense led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis who make all the plays in the middle of the field. All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman anchors a really good secondary, and Shaq Thompson and Star Lotulelei lead the pass rush. They have playmakers all over the defense, guys with the ability to be game breakers. The loss of Jared Allen for this game isn't good, but it isn't back-breaking either. I think the key is in this match-up, because the Panthers should be able to score points on the Cardinals defense, albeit not easily. The Panthers should start this game by taking away the run game and forcing Carson Palmer to beat them. That sounds crazy for a QB who was an MVP candidate for the entire season, but he hasn't played a ton of big games in his career and it showed last week. Can Palmer beat the Panthers? And if the Panthers jump out to a lead, can they protect it better in the second half than they have in recent weeks?

Carolina 27, Arizona 24.

Last Week: 4-0
Playoffs: 7-1
Season: 96-46

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Lots of storylines floating around this week, as there always are during the NFL Playoffs. On the AFC side: New England is getting key players healthy to go up against Kansas City who have won 11 in a row. For Pats fans, it may be hard not to have flashbacks to the beat down they suffered at Kansas City last year, but this one's in New England. Meanwhile, the great Peyton Manning is back in for the Broncos in what may be his final playoffs, against a banged up Steelers team without Antonio Brown and Ben Rothlisberger hampered by a shoulder injury. On the NFC side, the Packers head back to Arizona, the site of their worst loss with Aaron Rodgers as quarterback, in Week 16. And on Sunday, Seattle heads to Carolina looking for revenge for one of their many early season losses. Let's just hope the games live up to the hype. Home team is in all caps and the time, date, and line of the games are given for reference.

NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Kansas City, Saturday, 4:30 ET.

The Chiefs come in extraordinarily hot, having won their last 11 games. They've had a pretty soft schedule over that span, to be fair, but the only reason they started 1-5 is the tough schedule they had to start the season. They lost star running back Jamaal Charles early on, and have since relied on a three-headed attack at running back of Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and Knile Davis, all backs who have strengths and weaknesses in different areas. Their offense has been led by quarterback Alex Smith, who has used his weapons of tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin very effectively, as well as utilizing his very underrated athleticism to escape the pocket and make plays with his feet. It's Kansas City's defense, however, that has been doing the heavy lifting. They're very effective at rushing the passer and stuffing the run with their ability to push up front. They also have a very solid secondary, led by Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry, that allows the team the flexibility to run blitz, man, zone, whatever they please. It's basically the same defense that picked Brady off twice and held the Patriots to 14 points in Week 4 last year.
Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled from starting 10-0 to a 12-4 finish after being battered by injuries for most of the year. They lost their last two games to fall out of the number one seed in the AFC. However, those four losses came without Julian Edelman who went out in Week 10 and will make his return to the offense this week. No one knows if Edelman will be as quick and shifty in his first game back, but he's Brady's go-to guy and just his presence should open up the offense more than any game since he went up. The Patriots used the bye week over the Wild Card round to improve the health of players such as Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Sebastien Vollmer, and Tom Brady. Basically, they're going to be at almost full power for the first time since Week 10, and we all saw how that was going. When the Pats are at full health, or 90%, they're almost unbeatable at home. We'll see if the Chiefs can walk into Gillette Stadium and beat them.

New England 28, Kansas City 23.


ARIZONA (-7.5) over Green Bay, Saturday, 8:15 ET.

Back in Week 16, the Cardinals killed the Packers 38-8 at home. They locked up Green Bay's receivers, got a ton of pressure on Aaron Rodgers (forcing him into two turnovers), and threw the ball all over them en route to the blowout.
The Packers should play better this time, though. The offensive line is much healthier now than it was against Arizona last time, and it showed in Green Bay's performance against Washington last week. Not only did they give Rodgers more time than he had had in weeks, they opened up running lanes for Eddie Lacy and James Starks. When the running game has success, it gives the quarterback time and opens up lanes down the field for the receivers. That's what we saw from Green Bay last week in Washington, but Arizona is a much harder test. Carson Palmer is playing the best football of his career and he has about four guys he can throw to at any time, as well as a beast of a rookie running back named David Johnson. That's not to mention their defense, which already proved its worth against Green Bay last time. They have a really strong defensive line and a suffocating defensive backfield. I just don't see how the Packers get it done, even with the improvements they made last week. Arizona is just too good.

Arizona 31, Green Bay 24.


CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle, Sunday, 1:05 ET.

So... Seattle didn't look very good last week. They shouldn't even be playing this week, honestly. The only reason they are is because Blair Walsh pulled out the biggest choke job in the history of NFL kickers. The defense did fine, but that was probably mostly the frigid weather and the fact that Adrian Peterson is the worst big game running back EVER. The offense didn't put up any points through three quarters, only scored a touchdown because of a lucky play where a snap went over Russell Wilson's head, bounced straight back up into his hands, and Tyler Lockett was wide open down field. If not for that pay, the Vikings would be playing this weekend. Seattle just isn't as good as Carolina. Russell Wilson was playing really well earlier this year, but the offensive line hasn't been able to protect him all year. I think Carolina's defense will attack them.
As for Carolina's offense, nobody has played better throughout the year than Cam Newton. Nobody is as versatile at the QB position. He run around, over, and through any defensive player on the field, and his throwing accuracy and decision-making has greatly improved. He's just unstoppable at times, while his only great weapon to throw to is tight end Greg Olsen. They're doing it with Cam and Jonathon Stewart running the ball, then making big plays in the passing game with Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr. down the field. They also do it with a suffocating defense, led by linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, cornerback Josh Norman, and defensive lineman Star Lotulelei. They just put pressure on every area of the field, it's hard to find a weakness in their defense. I just think that Carolina is better than Seattle.

Carolina 24, Seattle 20.


DENVER (-6.5) over Pittsburgh, Sunday, 4:40 ET.

Believe me, there is nothing I'd rather do than pick the Steelers in this game. I want the very injured Steelers coming to Foxboro next week, where the Patriots already beat Pittsburgh earlier this year, not the Patriots going to Denver to play the healthy and supremely lucky Broncos, where the Pats have already lost this year. But that's the thing isn't it? The Broncos are healthy, the Steelers are not. If they were healthy, I would pick them, but I wouldn't know who I would want to win and play the Pats. But that's not what matters. Without Antonio Brown, with Ben Rothlisberger possibly unable to throw more than 15 yards downfield, with no legit running backs, I don't see how Pittsburgh wins the game. They just won't be able to score. Their defense could keep them in the game because they're good against the run which is what the Broncos rely on when Manning is back there. If they can make Peyton throw the ball 30+ times, force some turnovers, maybe create a defensive touchdown, that's their best chance to win, because the offense is going to struggle. But I don't think their defense is good enough to win them the game when their offense is so banged up. It would be asking for a complete reversal of who the Steelers are as a team; all year they've relied on the offense to gain huge chunks of yardage and outscore their opponents, hoping the defense can create a turnover or two and make the offense work for their points. It would have to be a complete change in who they are, and I don't think a team can just switch their entire approach in one week during the playoffs against a good team. Sorry Pittsburgh.

Denver 24, Pittsburgh 17.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1
Season: 92-46

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

The NFL Playoffs are here! That's right it's that time of year again, when two teams can be completely overcome by the moment, play terribly, and the game will be called great simply because it was close.
In all seriousness, the NFL Playoffs are right there with March Madness as the most enjoyable sports viewing experiences. Maybe it's because each round is only one game, so  that raises the stakes. All I know is that I'm really excited whenever playoff football comes around and this year is no different. Let's get into these picks.

Kansas City (-3) over HOUSTON, Saturday, 4:35 ET.

The Chiefs are on a real hot streak right now. They haven't lost since OCTOBER 18TH. That's a really freaking long time to go without losing. They've been a bit unsung on their hot streak because they lost running back Jamaal Charles early in the year. Quarterback Alex Smith has played really well to make up for Charles' absence, but it's really been about the defense. They're getting after the passer, stuffing the run, and locking down receivers.
That doesn't bode well for the offensively challenged Texans. They've had a revolving door of quarterbacks this year due to injury and they too lost their star running back prematurely (Arian Foster). They have a great playmaker on the outside in receiver Deandre Hopkins, but the Patriots showed that if you can take him away effectively, the Texans have practically nowhere to go. The reasons for the Texans being in the playoffs are as follows: 1) They play in the AFC South, 2) Their defense 3) Deandre Hopkins. They do have a good defense, led by the ultimate game-breaker J.J. Watt, but really the only reason they're still playing is because they got the automatic spot from winning the putrid AFC South. They aren't really on the Chiefs' level, and I think the Chiefs will prove it.

Kansas City 31, Houston 10.


Pittsburgh (-3) over CINCINNATI, Saturday, 8:15 ET.

It seems like we get an all-AFC North playoff match-up every year. Whether it be a third Steelers-Ravens match, Bengals-Ravens, or Steelers-Bengals (just never the Browns, obviously), there's always a rubber match between two of these teams, and it's usually pretty entertaining.
Even though they lost star running back Le'Veon Bell for the season, no one can match the Steelers' weapons on offense. They have the prolific receiver Antonio Brown, physical specimen Martavis Bryant, a very nice third receiver in Markus Wheaton, and the always reliable tight end Heath Miller. And of course they have Big Ben Rothlisberger running the show at quarterback. They spread you out and throw it around, over and through you. They're in the top five in yards gained and points accounted for on offense, and that's with Rothlisberger missing some amount of time. Their defense is solid, but gives up yardage. They rely on turnovers.
I'm not sure if this will be an issue for the Bengals. They do have back-up QB AJ McCarron starting for the injured Andy Dalton, but Dalton has a bit of a reputation for choking in the postseason, so who knows if McCarron will be an upgrade? He did play in plenty of big games at Alabama, after all. the Bengals also have good weapons in receiver A.J. Green and tight end Tyler Eifert, but it's their two-headed monster of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard that sets them apart from the Steelers, who will be forced to start young Fitzgerald Toussaint at running back. The Bengals tortured playoff history recently bears mentioning, as well as the Steelers' incredibly successful history in the biggest games. We'll see what wins out, but I'm riding with the team that has the better QB and a history of success instead of heartbreak.

Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 23.


Seattle (-5) over MINNESOTA, Sunday, 1:05 ET.

The Seahawks finished the season pretty well, but I feel like people are overestimating their recent success. Let's not forget that they lost to the Rams in Week 16 and that big win over Arizona in Week 17 was overblown-- Arizona was merely trying to get into the playoffs without injury. However, the Seahawks turned the offensive load over to Russell Wilson with Marshawn Lynch out for a lot of the season, and he had some incredibly prolific numbers. That defense is still as swarming and physical as ever and they already beat the crap out of the Vikings in Minnesota earlier this year. They have reason to be confident.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off a win against the hated Packers in Green Bay to win the NFC North Crown. That's sure to be a confidence booster. Young Teddy Bridgewater has shown flashes all year and should improve over his performance against Seattle last time. They still have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and their run-oriented style should favor them in the frigid conditions in Minnesota as opposed to the Seahawks now more aerial approach. The Vikings have a great defense that gets after the passer, stuffs the run, and locks up receivers in the secondary. They also wrap up and tackle extremely well.
The only issue is that the Seahawks' defense does all of those things, and probably better than the Vikings'. The deciding factors will be the cold and the pressure. I'm not sure who will deal with the cold better, but I know the Seahawks have a lot more playoff experience, so I'm gonna roll with them. Look for a low-scoring game full of mistakes and sloppy play, which usually means a close game.

Seattle 14, Minnesota 13.


WASHINGTON over Green Bay (-1), Sunday, 4:40 ET.

So... rough end to the season for the Packers, huh? Getting killed by the Cardinals on the road and then losing to one of their most hated rivals in their house to lose the division the next week? Ouch. The Packers have significant issues on their offense, including the offensive line's struggles to protect Aaron Rodgers and his receivers' inability to get open. I've never seen Rodgers struggle like this before. He doesn't exactly get a pass, because he has been playing pretty poorly, but it isn't mostly his fault. The running game has also been lacking as Eddie Lacy has struggled. The defense isn't bad by any means, but it isn't good enough to make up for the offense's struggles.
Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has reminded me more of Aaron Rodgers over the last few weeks than Aaron Rodgers has. He was basically the best QB in the league in December, throwing incredibly accurately and pretty prolifically. He has a go-to guy in tight end Jordan Reed, a huge, fast, agile playmaker who gets as many targets in the red zone as anyone. He is freed up by receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside, and they try to keep things balanced with the running game behind a solid offensive line. The defense isn't anything special, but it's good, with talent up front to take advantage of Green Bay's offensive line issues and a good enough secondary to keep the struggling receivers in check. It will be a question of if Washington can stop Lacy in the running game and keep Rodgers from making plays with his feet. If they can do that, Washington should win.

Washington 27, Green Bay 24.


Last Week: 5-3
Regular Season: 89-45

Week 17 NFL Picks

Well, it's the final week of the NFL season and a lot has changed since this time last week. The Jets beat the Patriots (as I predicted) to put themselves in the playoff picture above the Steelers. The Broncos beat the Bengals so that Denver could end up anywhere from the one-seed to the six-seed when all's said and done. Seattle (very surprisingly) lost to St. Louis, and that, along with the Vikings' win against the Giants and the Packers' shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals really mucked up the NFC playoff picture. Anyway, it should be a fun Week 17. This week, I'm only going to do the games that actually matter, where a playoff spot or seeding is on the line, because it's too hard to predict if teams that already have their seed locked up or are out of the playoffs will sit their best players. The home team is in all caps and the line and time of the game are given for reference.

NY Jets (-3) over BUFFALO, 1:00 ET.

The Jets are a good, well-coached team with good weapons and a very strong defensive line. They're more than a match for the inconsistent Bills, especially when they have something to play for and the Bills don't. The Jets could still lose their playoff spot if they lose. The question is, are they the type of team that rises to the occasion under that kind of pressure, or folds when they really need to win? We'll find out when they play their old buddy Rex and the Bills today.

New York 23, Buffalo 20.


New England (-10) over MIAMI, 1:00 ET.

I need to believe that the Patriots will win today. If they win, they secure the number one seed in the AFC and home-field throughout the playoffs. With how beat up they are, how many injuries they've had to deal with, they need that little extra edge in the playoffs. I believe Belichick knows that, but his priority last week against the Jets was getting out with as few injuries as possible. Now, against a much less dangerous Dolphins team, with the one-seed on the line, I think Belichick will put the A-game plan out there against Miami. The one-seed is on the line.

New England 27, Miami 20.


CINCINNATI (-9.5) over Baltimore, 1:00 ET.

Cincy still has something to play for, too. With a win and a Denver loss, the Bengals would be the two-seed. The Ravens have a ton of injuries, and might not be a match for Cincy if they were healthy, anyway. I fully expect the Bengals to win this game.

Cincinnati 28, Baltimore 17.


Pittsburgh (-11) over CLEVELAND, 1:00 ET.

Well, the schedule lets the Steelers do their part. They get to play the Browns and pray that the Jets lose. Even though the Seelers have had a tendency to lose to below average teams the last few years, I don't think they'll mess around with the Browns.

Pittsburgh 35, Cleveland 10.


CAROLINA (-10.5) over Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET.

Carolina lost for the first time all year last week, and if that wasn't motivation enough, they still have to win to lock up the number one seed in the NFC. Just like with Pittsburgh, they have too much at stake to lose to an inferior team. They don't want to go to Arizona in the playoffs.

Carolina 31, Tampa Bay 23.


DENVER (-9) over San Diego, 4:25 ET.

Denver at home and Denver on the road are two different teams. That's why the Patriots need to win today. Denver is a tough place to play and it seems like Brady especially has problems there. And since they're at home this week, I have no doubt that they'll take care of the Chargers this week with so much on the line.

Denver 28, San Diego 14.


ARIZONA (-6.5) over Seattle, 4:25 ET.

If this game was in Seattle, I would pick the Seahawks. They have wild card seeding on the line whereas Arizona simply has an outside shot at the number one seed. But since both teams have something to play for, the game is in Arizona, and the Cardinals have proven to be a better team, I'll take them.

Arizona 27, Seattle 24.


Minnesota over GREEN BAY (-3), 8:30 ET.

I've seen too much struggling on offense to pick Green Bay here. Their receivers can't get open and the dinged up offensive line cant give Rodgers enough time to find someone. Rodgers also isn't making plays with his feet like he has in the past and he isn't making the bet decisions. While the Packers are bottoming out at the worst time, the Vikings are peaking at the best time. Teddy Bridgewater is starting to win them games, the defense is as swarming as ever, and Stefon Diggs has emerged as a very good wide receiver in the league. Adrian Peterson is still Adrian Peterson. The only reason I'm not sure (and I'm definitely not) about this pick is that the Packers are the Packers and the Vikings are the Vikings. Rodgers always plays well in the division, and so does the defense. I'm picking the Vikings, but it's very close.

Minnesota 28, Green Bay 27.

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 84-42